tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post1140238631403985860..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Not So Fast On A New United Iraqi AllianceJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-70262936098997917342009-08-15T14:22:27.299-07:002009-08-15T14:22:27.299-07:00Don't read Arabic so can't read the articl...Don't read Arabic so can't read the article! Sorry. Sheikh Hayes is a rival of Abu Risha. <br /><br />Here's a little background to all 3 of the prominent Anbar sheikhs in the Awakening:<br /><br />http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2009/04/anbars-forgotten-sheikh.html<br /><br />Hayes is one of the biggest blowhards in Iraq and use to regularly talk about taking up arms and kicking out the Islamic Party when they ran Anbar. If he did decide to join the United Alliance I wouldn't be surprised. He turned up at a Sadrist rally in April 09.<br /><br />See: http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2009/04/anbar-sheikhs-reach-out-to-shiites.html<br /><br />All 3 of the sheikhs, Abu Risha, Hayes and Sulaiman I think are angling for national leadership of the Sunnis, which is their motivation to ally with the Shiite parties and get seats in any new government in Baghdad. <br /><br />Finally, I agree, Maliki is all about keeping power. I was surprised he even talked about rejoining the UIA for the 2010 vote, but it's the only way he can get the largest plurality of votes to remain Prime Minister. In 2009 he only won majorities in Baghdad and Basra and pluralities in the rest of the south, and even got out maneuvered by the SIIC in one. The SIIC came in second in most of the south, so if they ran together in the UIA he'd probably get a majority in those. <br /><br />I don't know if you read Nibras Kazimi's Talisman Gate blog from the Hudson Institute but he's been consistently arguing that Maliki is screwed. He thinks that the Kurds will be the swing votes in any new coalition and they want Maliki out. I think that's a possibility, but Maliki is sly and may give them some major concession to bring them along. I think that's the reason why he just went to Kurdistan. He can always turn on them as he's done others, see Sadrists, after he's re-elected!Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-53925477735497373632009-08-15T13:34:34.907-07:002009-08-15T13:34:34.907-07:00Joel, I came across your blog recently while doing...Joel, I came across your blog recently while doing research for a prominent DC think tank and think you have a good take on Iraqi politics. I've also been researching extensively the reformation of the UIA. Check out this article in today's Asharq al-Awsat. http://www.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=4&article=531950&issueno=11218<br />According to the article, those close to Hakim think Maliki is bluffing when he talks about how he wants to move on from UIA and run with other more nationalist Sunnis. I agree with you in that I think Maliki will end up doing what maximizes his personal authority. I've always said that if Maliki decides to eschew the UIA for a cross-sectarian alliance, it is not about political reconciliation but rather about Maliki finding a different vehicle to enhance his personal authority. Such is the pattern of Iraqi politics since the mandate period. This article also mentions that Hamid al-Hais, chief of the Anbar Salvation Council, decided to join the new coalition, which is being called the National Iraqi Coalition in order to put a nationalist face on it. I am skeptical that the likes of Hakim and co. are suddenly Iraqi nationalists. But isn't al-Hais a rival of Abu Risha, who has indicated his willingness to team up with Maliki? If that's the case, this would make sense. Anywaym just interested on your thoughts on this article.Abu Jalapahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02807224537823890380noreply@blogger.com