tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post2207366092981521423..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: A Look Into Iraq's Creation, Governance, And Disputed Territories: An Interview With State Dept.'s Stephen DonnellyJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-48595551657438808112011-07-04T16:12:00.284-07:002011-07-04T16:12:00.284-07:00continued:
"Gerrymandering" is a pretty...continued:<br /><br />"Gerrymandering" is a pretty loaded term for what, in many instances, are logical, but significant changes in political and administrative geography, which occur with frequency in the US and elsewhere. Whether they are evidence of conflict, cause of conflict, or resolution of conflict is a fact-specific determination resulting from detailed analysis of the changes, the reason for those changes, and their results on people and places.<br /><br />In the geography profession, there is a clear distinction between the general cartographic representation of an area (for general use as Mr. Izady has done), and the accuracy and integrity of a political/administrative/cadastral map, which must drill down to actual properties and geographic features, and be officially established to be relevant.<br /><br />In my professional view, the use of static maps to illustrate dynamic circumstances, especially fluid ones in conflict, is the equivalent of using a wind-up pocket watch, and fraught with the risk of becoming a driver of conflict.<br /><br />In Iraq, I was frequently presented with various versions of Mr. Izady's Green Line maps, the integrity and sources of which were not verifiable, and which were frequently presented by disputing parties of "proofs" of something or another. Thus, my reluctance to draw such lines in my work in lieu of simply showing others (including Mr. Izady's) as a framework for analysis, and reaching back for historical and documented mapping sources.<br /><br />Mr. Izady's cartographic sequences of provincial maps do an excellent job of illustrating the professional problems with static maps: effective political/administrative geography, for conflict-mapping purposes, requires dynamic mapping, documented, and time-sensitive, and reducible to actual ground features.<br /><br />Even where lines threaten to be drawn in blood, they should, at the least, be accurate and documentable.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-80052406701288562282011-07-04T16:09:14.191-07:002011-07-04T16:09:14.191-07:00This is a response from Stephen Donnelly.
Joel:
...This is a response from Stephen Donnelly.<br /><br />Joel:<br /><br />Mr. Izady's cartographic work and maps provide a really good and colorful snapshot of various changes in Iraq's provincial structures, which, I assume, is why you used them as supporting illustrations for the interview.<br /><br />I frequently refer to these widely circulated provincial maps (with copyrights indicated) as a great tool to illustrate the scope of many administrative changes relevant to understanding Iraq's recent past, and future.<br /><br />Coming from the public administration arena, where political/administrative maps change frequently (census reapportionments, school attendance boundary changes, city annexations of adjacent suburban areas, special taxing district boundaries, etc...), my perspectives and research bases are, perhaps, different from those of Mr. Izady's.<br /><br />Obviously, Mr. Izady did not have access to all the relevant historical source data (census tract boundaries, field notes, administrative decrees, and tax parcel data) we had available in 2008, nor to the level and quality of more recent geo-synchronized physical base data.<br /><br />Thus, he did an incredible job, as a cartographer using c. 1992 NIMA map base data, in those Iraqi provincial snapshots given that lack of detailed source materials, and contemporaneous geo-synchronized data.<br /><br />Unfortunately, some of the incongruities discussed in the interview, such as reducing Baghdad's size to the city only (not the Amenate), are corrected in the attached UNAMI map, as described in the interview.<br /><br />Many more Iraq mapping inconsistencies derive from the lack of high-quality survey datum in prior years. The 1957 Iraqi census is often called the first "real" census because it employed maps derived from a credible British mapping survey, but that survey no longer stands up to satellite-based standards, and attempts to reduce these map lines to actual ground features demonstrates continuing problems.<br /><br />For the UNAMI maps and project, my approach was to build the provincial lines from the constituent district lines and underlying census tracts and areas, using historical government tax/planning maps. These were then reconciled through ArcGIS with modern geo-synchronized data sets made available to Iraq's Ministry of Planning in 2008.<br /><br />In a recent USIP publication, former UNAMI team member Sean Davis has published a list of sequential administrative decrees altering boundaries in some of the disputed areas.<br /><br />He provides a USIP "composite" illustration of some of our district-level detailed work, directly traceable to the administrative decrees and more recent mapping source data.<br /><br />Even in Sean's 2011 description and "composite" maps, there remain many provincial/district-level areas of genuine jurisdictional disputes and/or confusions (Makmuhr, Acre, etc...) which can only be officially resolved by Iraqis.<br /><br />The same patterns of dynamic administrative changes (and continuing discrepancies) evident in Iraq exist in many places in the world, driven by either political, economic or social instability/change (Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc...), or, as with the US---western expansion, suburbanization or the impact of railroads and/or interstates in reshaping political landscapes and, thus, relevant and contemporaneous geography.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-69865895419149382752011-07-04T07:47:18.270-07:002011-07-04T07:47:18.270-07:00Mr. Izady, Stephen Donnelly and I had a long runni...Mr. Izady, Stephen Donnelly and I had a long running email exchange, which led to this interview. Part of it was on the history of Iraq's borders going back to the Ottoman times and beyond up to the present. I specifically asked him about the more recent changes. Your maps were used because they are the best publicly available and your name is placed under each to give you credit as the source. The questions for that part of the interview were then based upon the years for your maps, and Donnelly explained the changes that occurred in each. <br /><br />If you read the rest of the interview you will note that part of it tries to cover how these boundaries came about dating back to ancient time, and the other half is about Donnelly's experience on the ground in Iraq working for the Salahaddin PRT and later UNAMI with Iraq's disputed territories.<br /><br />So overall, while one section of the interview used your maps as the basis for questions, I don't think the piece is lifting your work, and you are duly noted as the source for each one of the maps that were used.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-17950548377687151132011-07-03T19:25:32.528-07:002011-07-03T19:25:32.528-07:00Unfortunately, most of the information and musing ...Unfortunately, most of the information and musing in this interview/article on Iraqi internal subdivisions are lifted from my work. The maps, as someone has identified them by a caption underneath them, are clearly mine and listed as such. What is not listed, is the accompanying texts of those maps which form the very essence of this interview with S. Connely. <br /><br />Any one can click on the link to my work at Columbia University, see those provincial maps of Iraq, and read the accompanying texts to note where the material for information of the Mr. Connelly who is being interviewed here come from. He of course makes no mention of my work or me as the source. Sad indeed.<br /><br />Below is the link:<br /><br />http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/maps.shtml<br /><br />And the text accompanying one of maps read as follow. Please read and compare to what is being provided in this interview:<br /><br />""Gerrymandering has been one of the more common features of the Iraqi provincial boundaries. For various political and ethnic expedients, Iraqi provinces have been carved up over and over again, most recently, after the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). In this instance, the Shi’a dominated province of Karbala was nearly wiped off the map in favor of the Sunni dominate province of Anbar, which now encompasses nearly a third of the entire landmass of Iraq. Likewise, the Kurdish provinces in the north were carved up and large chunks of them were incorporated into Sunni dominated neighboring provinces.<br /><br />This has had an unintended and amusing impact on the recent Iraqi elections: Only the Anbar province could muster the two-thirds majority needed to reject the new Iraqi Constitution. Provinces of Mosul (enlarged and renamed Ninawa), Samarra (enlarged and renamed Salahaddin) had too many non-Sunni Arab territories and peoples added to them by Saddam to be able to muster a veto vote. Three provinces with two-thirds majority were needed to reject the Constitution; only Anbar managed that. As such, the Constitution passed over the objections of an overwhelming majority of the Sunni Arabs.<br /><br />The historic names of many provinces have also been changed—sometimes comically--to suit the Sunni political and historic vendettas. Thus Kirkuk became T'amim ("Socialism"), Diwania became Qadisiyyah (after the 7th century battle of the same name between the Muslim Arabs and the Persian Imperial troops that opened up Iraq to Arab settlement and Islamic influence that Arabized and Islamicized the country )""Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-87722762458473789412011-04-18T10:38:11.840-07:002011-04-18T10:38:11.840-07:00NJH sorry it took so long to get back to you. I re...NJH sorry it took so long to get back to you. I recently had some health issues and couldn't write or type. <br /><br />As for the article, you cited, it doesn't say anything about who was behind the illegal land sales other than some land brokers. That could just be some crooked businessmen. <br /><br />There are a ton of current land disputes in Tamim province stemming from Saddam's Arabization program. There was a committee set up in 2004 to deal with the cases, but it has been overburdened and slow.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-59955211205359585942011-04-15T11:41:38.362-07:002011-04-15T11:41:38.362-07:00I came across this article (http://www.ninanews.co...I came across this article (http://www.ninanews.com/english/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=FGFDEG) citing illegal land trading practices in Kirkuk lately. In light of what Mr. Donnelly says about the boundaries of provinces being linked to property<br /><br /><i>It is critical for a reader to understand that whether under Ottoman or Western/U.S. political/administrative systems, or in Iraq, political/administrative boundaries are directly linked to property (cadastral) records for tax purposes, voting, service planning and allocation, etc. <br /><br />Political/administrative boundaries are, therefore, directly tied to actual properties and property boundaries, which, in turn, are directly tied to, for example, voting rights and population counts (used in the U.S., Iraq, etc., to allocate federal resources down to lower units (provinces/states and below). <br /><br />Changing a political/administrative boundary is, necessarily, a complex, formal and technically grounded action involving the movement of specific properties, and their residents, from one tax collector, government service chain, and voting district to another.</i><br /><br />I wonder if the Kurds are implementing this as a tactic to tip the Kirkuk situation in their favor.NJHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14931562265338592108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-78979335096474494922011-02-08T11:49:36.917-08:002011-02-08T11:49:36.917-08:00Joel, everyone:
I want to thank you all for the ...Joel, everyone: <br /><br />I want to thank you all for the well-considered responses. My guess is that, even with maps and formal decrees in hand, many of which are disputed by the facts on the ground, they only provide, at best, 90% of the story. Only the Iraqis can set forth a complete picture.<br /><br />bb's reference to the Hatatu books is on point, but relates in many ways to others maps and studies, particularly the land ownership, agricultural and industrial patterns which we also mapped out in separate studies.<br /><br />Balad, for example, contains a Canning Factory, and used to hold the very large cattle spread, breeding stations, slaughterhouses, etc... that traced to one of those old land owning families (which also controls Iraq's largest private bank). In interviews with farmers about pre-2003 practices, it is clear that they operated in the same "value-chain" integrated basis as, for example, Purdue Chicken, which provides farmers with chicks, feed, oversight, purchasing, financing and marketing.<br /><br />Several farmers (which may or may not be representative) expressed positive interests in re-establishing that old system, as well as respect for the families. It is possible that, long after Hatatu, as oil money flooded the economy and urban flight placed an increased importance on the farmers, that the terms of trade within that system were markedly different than "feudalism," as in older days.<br /><br />Most important, though, many of these systems, the great holdings, and the infrastructure that supported it was all heavily damaged, stripped, looted, etc... It will be interesting to see, in the future, how the issues addressed by Hatatu in early days will play out in Iraq's future.<br /><br />As one nod to history, the Planning Minister, Dr. Baban, is from an old Sulimaniya family which was among the last Kurdish leaders to settle with the Ottomans during the 1880s. Of course, his position today derives not from lineage (alone), but from considerable professional education, years of experience, and deft politics (no doubt).<br /><br />But even the Kurds, today, evidence distinctions with, for example, the Barzanis (the landed families), the Talibanis, urban technocrats, and the newer minority parties. The future will be interesting.Steve Donnelly, AICPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11707306512563808960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-35323364263138051682011-02-07T19:02:42.171-08:002011-02-07T19:02:42.171-08:00bb,
Thanks for the heads up on the book. ("T...bb,<br /><br />Thanks for the heads up on the book. ("The Old Social Classes and the Revolutionary Movements of Iraq") I'm reading a lengthy review of the book now. <br /><br />www.dissentmagazine.org/democratiya/article.php?article=64<br /><br />Unfortunately, at over 1,200 pages I have no time to read that while I'm working. I have literally dozens of old reports on the Iraq war that I haven't even gotten through yet. It's really tough juggling grading papers for work, reading and writing about Iraq, not to mention family. Perhaps during the summer I'll have the time to order a copy and get through some of it.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-66391538618571543102011-02-06T14:05:56.387-08:002011-02-06T14:05:56.387-08:00Great post, Joel. It's too bad Stephen Connell...Great post, Joel. It's too bad Stephen Connelly wasn't hired to run the CPA.Iraqi Mojohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14348791832474839472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-59092059914428801392011-02-06T02:13:20.981-08:002011-02-06T02:13:20.981-08:00great interview. THANKS. I hope Mr Emmons will b...great interview. THANKS. I hope Mr Emmons will be writing up all his recollections about his time in Iraq, assuming he hasn't already done so. It would be really invaluable.Zaidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-50922448084334104792011-02-06T00:28:43.158-08:002011-02-06T00:28:43.158-08:00bb,
Stephen was referring to the 2010, not 2009 e...bb,<br /><br />Stephen was referring to the 2010, not 2009 elections, for the results in Tamim. <br /><br />Also, the full 09 UNAMI report's findings have not been released, but their proposals for Kirkuk have been talked about in several articles. Their proposals for that area were to: 1) Adding more details to the steps to follow under Article 140, 2) Changing constitution to make Tamim a regular province, 3) Split authority over Tamim between Baghdad and Irbil, 4) Giving special status to TamimJoel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-15425444781954202012011-02-05T23:48:29.015-08:002011-02-05T23:48:29.015-08:00Congratulations on such an informative interview.
...Congratulations on such an informative interview.<br /><br />Joel, have you read Hanna Batutu's "The Old Social Classes and the Revolutionary Movements of Iraq" billed as a Study of Iraq's Old Landed and Commerical Classes and of its Communists, Ba'athists and Free Officers ? It is a dense academic tome, but unexpectedly extremely readable if one is an iraq junkie. Read somewhere (Non Arab Arab I think)that one can't hope to understand Iraq unless you have read this book. Which am proud to say I have!<br /><br />There's one thing that perplexes me: Stephen says:<br /><br />"As for Kirkuk’s disposition, the recent provincial elections were a draw between the Arab-associated Iraqiya (38%) and the Kurdistan Alliance (37%), suggesting no clear path, and with substantial minority concerns (Turkmen) arguing for a Special District for Kirkuk, pursuant to Article 123. Overall Kurdish-allied parties, on a combined basis, were just under 50% of combined votes cast.<br /><br />My general opinion is that a 51% vote is probably not enough to create a definitive resolution to so substantial an issue. Given the closeness of the 2009 Kirkuk voting patterns, relying on a 51% vote raises substantial risks versus, say, a supermajority (60%?), which might be more definitive."<br /><br />Unless my memory misleads me, Kirkuk was not given the opportunity to vote in the 09 provincial elections at all? In fact you recorded that here. So to which elections is Stephen referring?<br /><br />Once again my congrats and Stephen too, for his important work over there. It would have been nice tho, if he'd been able to tell you wot the UN had recommended. What a scoop for you that would have been. Wikileaks, eat your heart out!bbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-15461765746803569082011-02-05T09:51:02.242-08:002011-02-05T09:51:02.242-08:00Very enlightening. Thanks for posting this.Very enlightening. Thanks for posting this.Don Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11232752398252841794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-65836168596185773932011-02-04T10:29:27.798-08:002011-02-04T10:29:27.798-08:00Thanks so much for an excellent write-up. I was d...Thanks so much for an excellent write-up. I was deployed to Salhuddin province in 2008 and 2009 stationed at Joint Base Balad. I keep in contact with one of my interpreters from Iraq. I hope that the country will evolve into a democratic type state where sometime I could take my family on vacation! Thanks again for the interesting article.<br /><br />MAJ Chris Emmons<br /><br />Arizona National GuardMaj. Christopher Emmonshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07426506926288815387noreply@blogger.com