tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post2377822325359927024..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Why Saddam Hussein Did Not See The United States As A Military Threat Before The 2003 InvasionJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-44898939025218290892015-05-28T13:26:39.883-07:002015-05-28T13:26:39.883-07:00whatever the nature of the Saddam's view was b...whatever the nature of the Saddam's view was but the truth is that the US is fighting Iraq to this moment. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-15111644050285727642012-12-17T17:47:12.303-08:002012-12-17T17:47:12.303-08:00Are you using Internet Explorer? You need to use a...Are you using Internet Explorer? You need to use another web browser because IE is no longer compatible with Google Blogger. Try Firefox or something else and then everything on the blog will show up.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-36120001704615792402012-12-17T17:44:15.290-08:002012-12-17T17:44:15.290-08:00Joel - since Musings changed format where are all ...Joel - since Musings changed format where are all the archives etc? Also there seems to be only one page of recent entries.<br /><br />And also - your Dec 17 entry is titled ""Sadr Ramps Up The Campaign Machine Before Iraq’s Provincial Elections" but all it talks about is saddam and US invasion? <br /><br />Is this my PC or what?bbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-75590102592575626002012-12-15T10:56:44.957-08:002012-12-15T10:56:44.957-08:00Saddam and the Iraqi leadership did not think ther...Saddam and the Iraqi leadership did not think there was going to be a serious invasion. A strike was entirely possible however since that had become routine under the Clinton administration. IMO Pres Bush had decided upon war probably even before I elections started and were using them to Fi d international legitimization for war as the White House didn't expect Saddam to comply as he never did before. As for the US to co wider Iraq and Iran I don't get the sense that many in the administration who were pushing for war knew much of anything about Iraq and its foreign policy.<br /><br />This is a case of two countries tries completely misunderstanding and looking past each other.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-34042546820236694902012-12-15T06:22:01.843-08:002012-12-15T06:22:01.843-08:00Again, your research, as always, is rigorous and y...Again, your research, as always, is rigorous and your conclusions are sound. Truly, I couldn't hope to match it. <br />The last two paragraphs of your response seems to undermines the second. If Saddam sought to appease the US and also to gradually and incrementally concede to the inspectors, it reflects that Saddam did respect the US political/military/diplomatic potentiality and wanted (wished) that the US would understand his actions and rhetoric with respect to the Iranian reality. If the US understood and cared about Saddam's simple motivations: 1) to stay in power; and 2) to stave off Iran, then 1) war could've been avoided; and 2) the US could've made a deal with the devil in Saddam and enlisted him to use his formidable security structure to assist the hot war against Al-Qaeida and the cold war against Iran. The latter, of course, would've been a long shot and a spectacular act of clandestine diplomacy. I'm not sure if we could've pulled it off, but ...<br />Anyway, I understand you probably don't indulge in the 'would've', 'could've' world of speculation, but I'm all about that.<br />Enjoying your blog, and respecting your work. - Joe SerenityNow!https://www.blogger.com/profile/00393505350721506214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-76871262691718729612012-12-14T21:32:04.622-08:002012-12-14T21:32:04.622-08:00The U.S. is doing a massive project to go through ...The U.S. is doing a massive project to go through the Baath Party and Iraqi government papers as well as interview former Iraqi officials. Most of the information in this article is based upon that project. <br /><br />Again, according to all this work, Saddam did not think that the U.S. substantively changed between Clinton and the Bush administration. Saddam believed that Pres. Bush wanted to attack Iraq, but that it would be just like those that happened during the Clinton administration or perhaps include a temporary seizure of southern Iraq. <br /><br />As for the inspectors, Saddam was actually trying to appease the U.S. as much as possible so that Iraq would not provide an excuse for the Bush administration to launch an attack.<br /><br />If you go through the U.N. reports on those inspections you'll see that Iraq was actually giving in to the their demands slowly but surely. Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-9927104057518052342012-12-14T19:51:41.992-08:002012-12-14T19:51:41.992-08:00I mostly agree with you and recognize that you are...I mostly agree with you and recognize that you are an honest, diligent journalist. And I wouldn't disagree with Saddam's use of this statement "there would never be a US invasion" to justify his bad behaviors in resisting IAEA inspections. It would be useful in convincing his followers to understand what he was doing. But what he believed about what the US intended or could actually do would not have changed much what Saddam did militarily. <br />I don't challenge what was said in papers and interviews, but I would certainly view the SOURCES with healthy skepticism. No statements of Baathists or Iraqi officials before the invasion could be trusted to be reality - only apish mimicry of the party line. Statements after the fact that claim to know the true mind of Saddam are suspect. Outside of Saddam's inner circle, there were few (if any) that could speak for Saddam. And most of those guys ended up dead. <br />First, to begin to be accurate in the assessment of Saddam's attitude during that time, you have to respect the simple reality of Iran's importance as a threatening enemy. How could Saddam admit to NOT having WMD in front of Iran and the Arab world - well, he could if he could convince his followers that the US would not invade on that single issue.<br />Second, it's doubtful Saddam could've considered the Clinton America to be the same as a post-9-11/post-Afghanistan America.<br />Bush 41 behaved differently from Clinton who behaved differently from Bush 43.<br />Again, I don't disagree that the basic premise of the article was part of Saddam's calculus; but all I'm saying is the article seemed too focused on the single idea of Saddam's belief in a soft, non-committal America.SerenityNow!https://www.blogger.com/profile/00393505350721506214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-81279360902305092082012-12-14T15:45:16.752-08:002012-12-14T15:45:16.752-08:00SerenityNow!
What the captured Baath papers and ...SerenityNow! <br /><br />What the captured Baath papers and interviews with former Iraqi officials show is that in fact, Saddam didn't believe that there would ever be a real U.S. invasion or regime change. Saddam did think that a U.S. attack was going to happen under Bush, but it would just be like before, which was some cruise missiles being sent his way and that was it. Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-86732875251118131372012-12-14T15:40:08.661-08:002012-12-14T15:40:08.661-08:00Perhaps Saddam hoped for some miracle against the ...Perhaps Saddam hoped for some miracle against the US, but for all the sanity he could muster, he could not hope to stave off the US from doing what it ultimately wanted to do. And it would be fair (even for Saddam) to assume the US would continue to satisfaction - regime change. In an Iraqi mindset, it makes sense that: 1) the son Bush would seek to continue and exceed his father's mission; 2) Bush would lash out against the Muslim world for 9-11; and 3) it would commit ground forces in Iraq as it did in Afghanistan, where the ruling government was swept aside. Another strong motivation for Saddam was to never reveal weakness in front of Iran. At all costs, this was most important. He would rather roll the dice and hope for the best with the US than risk exposing a weakness to Iran. SerenityNow!https://www.blogger.com/profile/00393505350721506214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-86418411359689719572012-12-13T10:46:28.425-08:002012-12-13T10:46:28.425-08:00hello friend..love your nice blog..~ greeting from...hello friend..love your nice blog..~ greeting from malaysia..~Buatbesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00109081748156324625noreply@blogger.com