tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post571446327107458846..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies’ Survey Of IraqisJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-23320446193922880962018-03-23T01:07:22.751-07:002018-03-23T01:07:22.751-07:00Too un-Islamic.Too un-Islamic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-65544882355152883312008-10-29T02:35:00.000-07:002008-10-29T02:35:00.000-07:00In Jan 05 the rounded up/down rankings were:UIA 48...In Jan 05 the rounded up/down rankings were:<BR/><BR/>UIA 48%<BR/>Kurds 26%<BR/>Allawi 14%<BR/><BR/>In Dec 05 when the Sunni Arab parties were participating:<BR/><BR/>UIA 41%<BR/>Kurds 23%<BR/>Sunni Hashimi: 15%<BR/>Allawi 8%<BR/>Sunni Mutlaq 4%<BR/><BR/>The ICSS poll indicates that Allawi has got back much of the secular Sunni support he lost to the Sunni Arab parties in December. <BR/><BR/>It seems pretty evident that the poll underweighted the Kurds. Most polls do, Iraqi or Western.<BR/><BR/>And yeah, corruption is endemic no matter which government is in power there - old habits die hard. <BR/><BR/>btw going by your latest post on the Tribal Councils, PM Maliki is sure on a roll. You know that his main tutor in the art of how to exercise and keep power in democracy-style politics over the last 2 years has been George W? Maliki seems to have been a fast learner.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-80925085846422214272008-10-28T16:16:00.000-07:002008-10-28T16:16:00.000-07:001) Over at Abu Muqawama, soldiernolongeriniraq sai...1) Over at Abu Muqawama, soldiernolongeriniraq said he didn't support Alawi, just that he thought he was the lesser of many evils in Iraq<BR/><BR/>2) Dawa and the SIIC are becoming increasing rivals in the south. They might have run independently in Jan. 05, but did it reach this level of acrimony? The SIIC is complaining about the tribal councils, 2 news ones just established, and an army unit raided an SIIC office and carted away a bunch of heavy weapons. Seems on a different level than 05, that would complicate coalition building later on, but who knows.<BR/><BR/>3) I'm not sure I would use the phrase "gone back to 13-14%" for Alawi either. That rating makes him only second to Maliki in this poll. Did Alawi rank #2 back in 05? <BR/><BR/>4) Last I don't think you can realy rank the level of corruption in Iraq from Alawi to Jafaari to Maliki. They all seem to have the same levels of incompetency and corruption going on in them.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-25548638670380136372008-10-28T13:32:00.000-07:002008-10-28T13:32:00.000-07:00btw - Dawa and SIIC contested the last provincial ...btw - Dawa and SIIC contested the last provincial elections (Jan 05) separately, so that's not new.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-67818025286129252312008-10-28T13:24:00.000-07:002008-10-28T13:24:00.000-07:00All that's happened is that Allawi's support has g...All that's happened is that Allawi's support has gone back to the 13 - 14% his party achieved in the Jan 05 elections, which he contested as Prime Minister. Apparently the US imagined Allawi would do well in those elections, but as was usual at that time they completely misread internal Iraqi politics - Allawi had appointed a number of ex Baathists to his administration and they proceeded to loot the oil revenues and defense contracts, so he really didn't have a show back then.<BR/><BR/>Its not likely he'll improve this number on his own, he'll need a coalition.<BR/><BR/>If PM Maliki decides he wants to go on with it (after all he has had the worst job and the highest stress levels in the world over the last 2 years) he will likely put together a coalition himself.<BR/><BR/>If Allawi does the same, we might see a maturing of the Iraqi democratic process and the emergence of an identifiable "government" and "opposition".<BR/><BR/>What seems indisputable is that the Iraqi polity has moved away from sectarian identification and this will no doubt be reflected in any coalition Maliki puts together.<BR/><BR/>SNII appears to have a deep, abiding loathing of the Maliki government. But did he ever have anything to do with the Allawi government? Am not sure if he was in Iraq in the second half of 04?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-21232805880542865202008-10-27T15:50:00.000-07:002008-10-27T15:50:00.000-07:00Good pointing out the exclusion of the Fadhila Par...Good pointing out the exclusion of the Fadhila Party. I completely missed that. Perhaps because this was a national poll, and the Fadhila are just in Basra, that's why they didn't get mentioned? <BR/><BR/>I think your point about the Kurds being the kingmakers after parliamentary elections is also on point. Especially now that Maliki and the SIIC are competing in the provincial elections and becoming rivals, by the time the national vote comes along those two may not be able to work together, which would give the Kurds an even bigger hand. <BR/><BR/>The biggest surprise was of course Allawi's standing. Over at Abu Muqawama this poster soldiernolongeriniraq is the only person that has consistently talked about the former prime minister being a national player and I always thought he was off because Allawi has hardly been mentioned at all in 2008. (In 2007 he was maneuvering with the opposition in parliament to try to unseat Maliki, and then faded from the reporting that I read). <BR/><BR/>If the SOFA negotiations don't go well and it gets all dropped on Maliki, perhaps that could offer an even bigger opening for Allawi to move up in national politics as well.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-24899724010073728992008-10-27T02:07:00.000-07:002008-10-27T02:07:00.000-07:00ICRSS are the most indicative polls of Iraqi publi...ICRSS are the most indicative polls of Iraqi public opinion because they are conducted by iraqis face to face with other Iraqis framing questions on the issues that concern Iraqis.<BR/><BR/>It'll be interesting to see if the Sunni/westernocentric academic bloggers like Abu Aaardvark post this poll and comment on it - I can't remember them taking much interest in ICRSS polls before.<BR/><BR/>The most interesting results to me are:<BR/><BR/>1/ The recognition factor of Prime Minister Maliki and the faction of Dawa he represents. 14% nationally is a very large number compared to the 13 members his party negotiated in the UIA in Dec 05 which equates to about 4% nationally.<BR/><BR/>2. The significant improvement in Allawi's party's support - from 8% to over 13% from the Dec 05 result. However not nearly enough on its own to be decisive.<BR/><BR/>3.The three major Sunni Arab parties - Hashimi's, Awakening and Mutlaq's don't score much more than 8% between them, compared to nearly 20% the Sunni Arab parties got last time. This puts Allawai in a strong position to convince them to contest the elections under his banner.<BR/><BR/>4. The Sadrist Movement: IF they contest the elections and IF they only get 4% nationally as this poll indicates then they would only obtain 10 to 12 seats in te COR - quite a reduction from the 30 they negotiated for contesting within the UIA. Probably explains why they are not apparently contesting the provincial elections as an official Sadrist party and why they haven't ever officially contested elections. The myth must not be dispelled by the reality.<BR/><BR/>5. Jafaari's Dawa breakway "reform party" scores about 4% nationally. This would give them about the same no of seats they were alotted in the UIA - 12.<BR/><BR/>6. Islamic Virtue (Fadhila) doesn't seem to have been polled? Is this because it is now part of Jafaari's Reform party? I'm not sure - but if it is, it doesn't make Jafaari's numbers look good. Fadhila was alotted 15 seats in the UIA carve up, which equates to about 5% of national vote if it were contesting separately.<BR/><BR/>7. The two Kurdish parties are down from 21% to 13% or so. Suspect that they might have been underweighted in the poll, but if not a reduction in their share of the vote would be very significant.<BR/><BR/>Conclusion: if the shia parties contest under a new-version umbrella party like the UIA, they will be again easily the party with the largest number in the COR and therefore entitled to nominate the Prime Minister and cabinet.<BR/><BR/>If they contest separately, then there is a real chance that the next government will be formed from the Kurds or from Allawi if he is able to put an umbrella coalition together.<BR/><BR/>Interesting times ahead for this PR representative democracy.<BR/><BR/>smgAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com