tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post7955707845310048057..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Mosul Campaign Day 148, March 13, 2017Joel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-82607236278628397112017-03-19T16:58:57.565-07:002017-03-19T16:58:57.565-07:00WHY would more minorities go back? The city is goi...WHY would more minorities go back? The city is going to take months and months to rebuild. It's thoroughly associated with IS's capital in Iraq. Doesn't seem like much motivation to go back to the city in large numbers. No civilian is thinking about moving to a city to stop IS from rebuilding. Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-57257155820047108862017-03-19T12:05:07.274-07:002017-03-19T12:05:07.274-07:00I think many Kurds will move to Mosul. The Turks m...I think many Kurds will move to Mosul. The Turks might try to move Turkmen into Mosul. Also think twelvers might move into Mosul. This would reduce the likelihood of a future ISIS offensive inside Mosul.<br /><br />ananAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-35797054267645861902017-03-18T18:07:39.497-07:002017-03-18T18:07:39.497-07:00Why do you think there will be fewer Sunni Arabs i...Why do you think there will be fewer Sunni Arabs in Mosul? Of the minorities that used to live there who are going to return? I think very few Christians or Kurds will want to go back any time soon. That will make Mosul more not less Sunni Arab. Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-82497615643069631112017-03-18T15:54:23.293-07:002017-03-18T15:54:23.293-07:00Peter,
In the long term Mosul will have a smaller...Peter,<br /><br />In the long term Mosul will have a smaller percentage of Sunni Arabs. How much smaller remains to be determined.<br /><br />Joel, the Iraqi Army will probably have a large long term presence inside Mosul.<br /><br />In 2003-2004, Mosul was relatively safe, quiet and secure. In 2004, MNF-N tried to transfer security responsibility to the Mosul police. It seemed to be working well. Then came the November 8th, 2014 blitzkrieg into Mosul by Al Qaeda and sectarian Sunni Arab militias (which at that time called themselves the Iraqi resistance). This was at the time a major challenge to the new sovereign legitimate Government of Iraq.<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mosul_(2004)<br /><br />At the request of the Iraqi Defense Minister and Iraqi PM, Peshemerga and MNF-N forces re-entered Mosul and defeated Al Qaeda and the sectarian Sunni Arab militias in the few days.<br /><br />In 2005, the Iraqi Army (then BG Mouttah's 2nd Iraqi Army in particular) established a strong presence inside Mosul city, and MNF-N gradually began to transfer security responsibility for Mosul, Ninevah and At Tamin to the Iraqi Army. This transfer completed in 2006, when the Iraqi Security Forces and Pesh assume almost full responsibility for the North. Starting in 2006, only one coalition brigade (Colonel Twitty's brigade) provided overwatch [combat enablers, advisers, trainers] for all of Ninevah, At Tamin, Northern Salahadin, Dohuk, Sulaymaniyah, Arbil. Back in 2005-2007, The Iraqi Army units in Ninevah (then BG/MG Kirshad's 3rd Division and then BG Moutta's 2nd Division) were arguably the most elite in all of Iraq. By 2008, the Iraqi Army had many high quality Divisions.<br /><br />The Iraqi Army retained a dominant role in Mosul security until 2014. The Iraqi Army is likely to maintain a large presence inside Mosul city indefinitely.<br /><br />And this is good. Better the Iraqi Army than the deeply distrusted Popular Mobilization Committee forces and the predominantly Kurdish Peshmerga.<br /><br />I think this time Moslawis will show a lot more respect, gratitude and adoration towards the Iraqi Army . . . having tasted the alternative first hand.<br /><br />Back in 2004-2014, many of the Sunni Arabs in the Iraqi Army came from Mosul and Ninevah more broadly. It will be important for the Iraqi Army to again incorporate many brave sons of Mosul.<br /><br />If I can change the topic, Joel, what role do you think former Nineveh governor Atheel al-Nujaifi will play in Mosul.<br /><br />I was shocked by:<br />http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/joint-forces-arrest-former-nineveh-governor-found-mosul/<br />I obviously have a more favorable perspective on Nujaifi than PM Abadi. My hope is that CINC Trump uses his amazing negotiating skills to lower the temperature between Abadi and Nujaifi. Iraq, Syria and the world needs a lot more help from the Turks.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-79374880348891657812017-03-15T10:27:16.969-07:002017-03-15T10:27:16.969-07:001st there's not going to be a demographic chan...1st there's not going to be a demographic change in the city. Those that are displaced want to return to their homes as soon as possible. The on going fighting and the insecurity and lack of services in liberated east Mosul are hindering that process.<br /><br />As for the long term the govt has to take care of a number of issues, none of which will be easy. 1) They need to establish police control of the city instead of the mix of units that don't cooperate 2) They need to pump in a huge amount of money to rebuild which neither Baghdad nor aid groups have, 3) They need to have a series of meetings to determine the future of Ninewa in general which will have an impact on Mosul. These will go a long way to determining whether Baghdad will be able to maintain the goodwill it has earned amongst the people of Mosul during the military campaign. Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-77094310345210159602017-03-15T05:21:50.487-07:002017-03-15T05:21:50.487-07:00Hi Joel,
It's not an easy question to answer I...Hi Joel,<br />It's not an easy question to answer I know, but do you think there is any future for Mosul after ISIS and if so, do you think it will become a majority Sunni city again or is something much darker waiting in the shadows? News and views from spainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03890834262962936583noreply@blogger.com