tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post2199548886271983814..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Iraqi Parties Maneuver To Form New Ruling CoalitionJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-1652662762747491632010-03-14T22:43:37.972-07:002010-03-14T22:43:37.972-07:00The Supreme Council started knocking people off be...The Supreme Council started knocking people off before the Sadrists and had institutional cover for their activities far before before the Mahdi Army as well. I don't think one was better than the other in that regard. <br /><br />And I wouldn't go so far in your observation about the Islamist parties yet. The National Alliance is leading in Maysan and Qadisiyah, pulling second in the rest of the south, and will probably be a partner in the new government. The only Islamist party that has really fallen off is the Iraqi Islamic Party because of the fragmentation of the Sunni vote.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-48648990560343501932010-03-14T19:57:45.509-07:002010-03-14T19:57:45.509-07:00There is a marked difference between knocking off ...There is a marked difference between knocking off a hit list related to the Ian/Iraq war and taking over hospitals and using them as torure centres.<br /><br />Like the Sadrists in health, the Interior ministry death squads, prisons etc came as a direct result of the Sunni/jihadis slaughter of shia who were entering the democratric process. In the end, the shiite paties dealt with them acording to Middle East rules.<br /><br />One remembers all those years when the Sadrists were the poster boys of western armchair pundits who fondly envisioned them joining forces with the Sunni jihadis to bring down the democratic state.<br /><br />What is good to see in these elections is the fundamentalist religious extremeist paties, both shia and sunni, getting walloped.bbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-65216765524781137522010-03-14T19:52:53.773-07:002010-03-14T19:52:53.773-07:00It may very well be just wishful thinking. But if...It may very well be just wishful thinking. But if Allawi were to join Maliki, they would command 60% or more of parliament. Enough to tell the Kurds and SIIC both to go pound sand.Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594232079556508582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-2498193832546399532010-03-13T09:08:38.948-08:002010-03-13T09:08:38.948-08:00Another reader Jason has been asking that same que...Another reader Jason has been asking that same question. It appears that Maliki will first attempt to recreate the current coalition. Even if they don't all get along I guess it's the ones he knows. A problem with Allawi's list is that some want Vice Pres Hashemi to become president while the Kurdish Alliance wants Talabani to remain in that position. I think it would take a lot to out maneuver the Kurds right now because the Supreme Council wants to ally with them again as they have since the invasion.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-32339608448995578402010-03-13T08:35:15.983-08:002010-03-13T08:35:15.983-08:00So Joel, from your observations, do you think that...So Joel, from your observations, do you think that it's even remotely probable that State of Law and Iraqiya might be willing to form a government together? Or would the sectarian nature of Dawa be too much of a stumbling block for both sides?AndrewSshihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12092217847584427587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-1582719472673070082010-03-12T19:31:22.519-08:002010-03-12T19:31:22.519-08:00The Supreme Council was the first one to carry out...The Supreme Council was the first one to carry out assassinations. Their Badr Brigade killed people connected with the Iran-Iraq War right after the invasion, probably with hit lists provided by the Revolutionary Guard. They also took over the Interior Ministry later on, ran death squads, secret prisons, etc. all before the Sadrists were running the Health Ministry.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-65743873872833143752010-03-12T19:13:48.420-08:002010-03-12T19:13:48.420-08:00And Maliki will have a number of loyal supporters ...And Maliki will have a number of loyal supporters he will want to reward with ministries. Persoanlly I hope the sadrists get marginilised because of the way they ran the hospitals as torture centres when they held the ministry of health.<br /><br />Maliki always used to moan that he had been saddled with a cabinet he couldn't select himself. So he will have had a good long time to think and plan.bbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-2420462955406959502010-03-12T16:23:45.442-08:002010-03-12T16:23:45.442-08:00Yes, Maliki wanted half of the seats in the allian...Yes, Maliki wanted half of the seats in the alliance plus a promise that he would be their only nominee for prime minister. None of the Alliance members would agree to that because they only wanted Maliki's popularity in the vote, not him because he had angered so many of them with his actions from 2008-2009.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-34356208436224891662010-03-12T13:25:52.183-08:002010-03-12T13:25:52.183-08:00Wasn't just Maliki's demand to be prime mi...Wasn't just Maliki's demand to be prime minister at issue. It was how the seats would be divvied up among the parties within the alliance.<br /><br />Maliki's branch of Dawa only had 13seats in the UIA. His INA opponents (ISCI, Sadrists, Fadhila and Jafaari) had 92 seats between them! The INA parties were relying on the fact that between them they had won a higher % of the votes in the 9 shia provinces in the provincial elections than Maliki got. It seems thay may have miscalculated. <br /><br />One can expect Maliki to cut a much tougher deal now.bbnoreply@blogger.com