tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post3705392399120155753..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Operation New Hope In Mosul – UpdateJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-43750084423214027242009-04-01T11:48:00.000-07:002009-04-01T11:48:00.000-07:00Fair enough on the SoI.My big worry on Mosul is th...Fair enough on the SoI.<BR/><BR/>My big worry on Mosul is that there's not only the Kurd/Arab divide, but also the divide between the Shi'ite Arabs in Baghdad and the Sunni Arabs in Mosul. If enough folks side with Hadbaa and work within the system, then things might actually get less awful. At the moment, though, Hadbaa doesn't have much armed clout, whereas the Anbar Awakening folks do, and the IIP has managed in Diyala to rather cannily wind up running a lot of the Sahwa program there. I think that Hadbaa needs some sort of equivalent to begin making headway.AndrewSshihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12092217847584427587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-65800982313196554102009-04-01T11:16:00.000-07:002009-04-01T11:16:00.000-07:00I don't know if Maliki has that kind of pull with ...I don't know if Maliki has that kind of pull with the city or provinces' Sunnis. They will likely turn to al-Hadbaa that is demanding the military to remove all the Peshmerga from the province. Maliki has actually been trying this but an Army patrol almost got into a shootout with some Kurds and the U.S. had to step in so those plans might be on hold. Whatever happens I would think Hadbaa would be able to spint it to their advantage more than Maliki who also wants credit. <BR/><BR/>As for the SOI, I don't really have much more on it than what's been in the papers. I know some commentators like Tom Ricks at his blog at Foreign Policy and Brian Katulis at Cen. Amer. Prog. have been saying that this is the beginning of the Surge status quo falling apart. I don't buy it. 2 days of fighting aren't much. Some SOI leaders were concerned, but others were not. Basically it comes down to their futures, and the government is the only one offering them pay and the hope of a job so they will put up with Maliki's carrot and stick approach, which I think the arrests were part of.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-78300536977127979292009-04-01T06:45:00.000-07:002009-04-01T06:45:00.000-07:00It seems to me that the trick in Mosul is to convi...It seems to me that the trick in Mosul is to convince the rank and file of the Arabs that Maliki's Dawa government is on their side. If if if Maliki can do that, things in Mosul may still be problematic, but it'll be a different sort of problematic.<BR/><BR/>Do you think that you could do a write-up on the recent discontented rumblings amongst the Sahwa? I know that this sort of stuff happens from time to time, and that even Iraqi army and police units often wind up going for months at a time without pay, but some of the stuff seems a bit more problematic, coming as it does with the Bucca detainees getting back on the streets.AndrewSshihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12092217847584427587noreply@blogger.com