tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post4343130354659727590..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Election Controversy In Iraq Does Not Have Affect On ViolenceJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-20758776399660714792010-05-10T16:49:10.652-07:002010-05-10T16:49:10.652-07:00Some generals and Anthony Cordesman at the Center ...Some generals and Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has called it the "irreducible minimum" meaning unless there is another dramatic change in the political situation, the security situation in Iraq is not going to change.<br /><br />Basically what you see today is the result of five events that started in 2005. First the Anbar tribes turned on Al Qaeda in 2005. Then most of the insurgency switched sides during the Surge to become the Sons of Iraq, third Sadr's cease-fire and U.S. and Maliki's operations against them in 2008 dispersed the Shiite militias, fourth Iran began focusing upon politics more than militancy to focus upon the 2009 elections, which finally had large Sunni participation. That's why attacks and deaths dropped to their lowest level in 2009, and have stayed that way until today.<br /><br />Since then however, there has been no more changes, hence no more reduction in violence. I really think in 5 years or so Al Qaeda will be out of Iraq. After the U.S. is out they will just not have an ideological reason to be there anymore and will go onto some other country. That still leads the homegrown insurgency. The Baathists could eventually fade as well to irrelevancy, but there are still others, especially because the Arab-Kurd divide still exists, which is why there is still violence in Mosul and Ninewa. Until that dynamic changes, we're probably stuck at the current levels of attacks and deaths.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-79226919788814296212010-05-10T15:21:04.467-07:002010-05-10T15:21:04.467-07:00I'm wondering why Iraq seems to be stuck at th...I'm wondering why Iraq seems to be stuck at this particular level of violence. The bad guys can generally do one or two spectacular big-a*s assaults a month. I'll grant that that's better than when we had a bombing plus thirty corpses turning up per day, but shouldn't AQI's operational capability eventually degrade to the point where they're not able to pull off operations like today's? I mean, ISF have caught the occasional massive attack "left of boom," but there's still too much getting through.<br /><br />(But then part of that might be that they still rely too much on beating confessions out of people rather than genuine forensics).AndrewSshihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12092217847584427587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-6142750848899519312010-05-10T08:27:02.186-07:002010-05-10T08:27:02.186-07:00The security situation in the countries are actual...The security situation in the countries are actually pretty different. In Afghanistan you have a strong insurgency that controls territory, and while not a threat to the government in Kabul is a threat to governance. In Iraq on the other hand, the insurgency is fading, holds no land, and has lost the support of the general public. Yet despite those differences, in terms of straight violence, Iraq is still more dangerous than Afghanistan. Unfortunately thats likely to be true for the short-term at least.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-23533402145013217162010-05-10T06:46:11.974-07:002010-05-10T06:46:11.974-07:00Interesting comparisons. Thanks.Interesting comparisons. Thanks.Don Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11232752398252841794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-52175340763579341792010-05-09T08:24:59.371-07:002010-05-09T08:24:59.371-07:00No they dont release those types of figures.
What...No they dont release those types of figures.<br /><br />What I can give you is a comparison of is Iraq to Afghanistan.<br /><br />Afghanistan has a population of roughly 28 mil, Iraq 30 mil.<br /><br />According to the Brookings' Afghan Index there were an avg. of 200-250 attacks per week in 2008<br /><br />According to the Brookings' Iraq Index there were an avg. of 700 attacks per week in the beginning of 2008 that eventually declined to 300. In 2009 there are an avg. of 200 attacks per week.<br /><br />Iraq still has the more terrorist attacks than any other country in the world.<br /><br />In Afghanistan in 2008 there were 1445 civilian deaths according to Brookings.<br /><br />In Iraq in 2008 there were between 5929-9226 killed between the 5 major organizations that track casualties.<br /><br />In 2009 there were between 3119-4684.<br /><br />So Iraq at its lowest levels of violence has about the same number of attacks as Afghanistan where they are going up, and twice the number of deaths.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-75242348589386816052010-05-09T06:35:21.028-07:002010-05-09T06:35:21.028-07:00For comparison, are there any figures for deaths i...For comparison, are there any figures for deaths in traffic accidents in Iraq?Don Coxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11232752398252841794noreply@blogger.com