tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post4491456932049456438..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Iraqi Government Tries To Deter Participation In “Day Of Rage” ProtestJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-26338539765313297742011-02-26T04:22:03.966-08:002011-02-26T04:22:03.966-08:00"There's just a huge amount of issues Bag..."There's just a huge amount of issues Baghdad has to overcome."<br /><br />Iraq needs forty years of peace to sort itself out.Don Coxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-6498795778772003842011-02-25T18:48:30.790-08:002011-02-25T18:48:30.790-08:00I guess I'm just a cynic but I think Baghdad i...I guess I'm just a cynic but I think Baghdad is stuck between a rock and hard place. I just don't think they have the personnel, capacity, and laws in place right now to really develop the country. I think the situation is made worse because officials have started a bad habit of announcing huge projects, and then nothing happens. For example, I wrote this piece a little while ago about how the government announced several deals with foreign companies to build tens of thousands of houses, but then most of the them never actually went through. Now, Maliki and others have started claiming that they can solve the electricity problem in a year and a half, but I haven't read anything that says that's possible. <br /><br />I don't even think these are problems created by corrupt or incompetent government, although those exist as well. The country is coming out of sanctions, dictatorship, and civil war with a state-run, command economy. It doesn't even have all the laws in place to work with most foreign investment. There's just a huge amount of issues Baghdad has to overcome.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-9788387082765424612011-02-25T18:05:37.102-08:002011-02-25T18:05:37.102-08:00Right, but like you pointed out, changing governor...Right, but like you pointed out, changing governors does not create service improvements. <br /><br />People can tolerate a lot if they believe it is a shared burden, so the idea of talking and engaging them to help is big. (look at the new strategies in Bahrain, etc...). <br /><br />Somehow, I have problems with the idea that AQ is behind resident service protests in Sunni Tikrit. The problem is the services.<br /><br />Corruption, though is more complex. It is easy to say that some are "stealing the money," but some (not all) of it is really just "off-record" revenue transfers to distribute income to needy former employees, relatives, etc..<br /><br />In the US, "phantom"employees carried on an agency payroll always means the boss is stealing it. In war and post-conflict zones, it is much more complex. The question is: How to get beyond it, and turn agencies into performance, rather than relief vehicles?<br /><br />I have a lot more faith in Iraqis, provided they can get on and stay on a good track.<br /><br />These protests and conflicts are the necessary stuff of finding it. (Including for Mr. Maliki, Sadr, etc...).Steve Donnelly, AICPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11707306512563808960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-37541456507093303442011-02-25T15:43:34.080-08:002011-02-25T15:43:34.080-08:00Now it appears the governors of Basra, Baghdad, an...Now it appears the governors of Basra, Baghdad, and Qadisiyah have all been forced to step down. A huge victory for the protesters today. Will their replacements be any better however?Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-36337773955081300172011-02-25T15:02:26.797-08:002011-02-25T15:02:26.797-08:00Yes, Maliki at first seemed to say that the demons...Yes, Maliki at first seemed to say that the demonstrations weren't a big deal, and actually told officials they should go out and talk with the people. Inevitably however, as the protests got bigger and bigger he decided to turn against today's demonstration. That wasn't that bad, but trying to talk about Baathists and Al Qaeda was pretty ridiculous. <br /><br />As for the actual protests I read that the Basra governor said he would resign because of them. Unfortunately I don't think politicians are really use to responding to the public's demands yet, and just as important they are incapable of improving services right now, and not interested in fighting corruption. Iraq has a huge bloated government and salaries and pensions take up around 60% of every budget, plus they have a lot of problems getting through red tape and actually completing the projects they do plan. Until that ends, I would think that the protests will continue unless Maliki decides to crackdown on them. He did that last summer with the electricty protests, but I'm not sure these new ones could be contained as easily. It will be an interesting time to see what happens.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-8223650076740383722011-02-25T10:13:36.345-08:002011-02-25T10:13:36.345-08:00The thing that consistently concerned me about Ira...The thing that consistently concerned me about Iraq and Afghanistan was the lack of public engagement.<br /><br />Anytime there is a disaster, or serious threat, it is a positive path of human nature to engage it.<br /><br />Now, we start to see Iraqis engaging their own future, and giving voice to serious failures of services, jobs, corruption.<br /><br />Had Mr. Maliki embraced, supported and helped to channel legitimate frustration into forward, and shared, momentum, his marked on Iraqi history would have been profound. As yet, his approach has not done that.<br /><br />What has been done, so far, is curiously similar to the old Ottoman/Persian Model---change the villayet's pasha if he can't keep locals quiet. It will be interesting to see how the government's respond to the root problem driving protests, which are not opposed to government, but opposed to lack of effective government.Steve Donnelly, AICPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11707306512563808960noreply@blogger.com