tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post4551557079506390898..comments2024-02-29T12:38:32.191-08:00Comments on MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Disputes Over Tribal Support CouncilsJoel Winghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-45679387342698996062008-10-09T19:35:00.000-07:002008-10-09T19:35:00.000-07:00"In fact their agreement to the ban on use of reli..."In fact their agreement to the ban on use of religious images in election campaigning indicates that the routing of the Sadrists has allowed the shia govt parties to move away from sectarianism?"<BR/><BR/>I think most people interpreted the no religious images clause in the provincial election as an anti-SIIC move, rather than anti-Sadrist one. The SIIC plastered Ayatollah Sistani's face all over their election material in the 2005 elecions, and other parties didn't want them to have that advantage in 2009, so I'm not so sure it was a move away from sectarianism, rather than power politics.<BR/><BR/>On the Sadrists, I would agree that they have lost support. According to the U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Teams, Maysan, the only province the Sadrists ruled in, remains one of the poorest in the country. They of course, also carried out a tit for tat war with the SIIC and anyone else that stood in their way. I've also written two pieces about Sadr's leadership, which during the early 2008 crackdowns seemed to alienate and upset many of his followers as well. Maliki has also been able to undermine some of Sadr's anti-Americanism by demanding a U.S. withdrawal timetable in the SOFA agreements. The Sadrists are definitely in rebuilding mode right now.<BR/><BR/>One important factor however, is that I haven't seen anyone really court and gain the Sadrists' followers support. It was there for the taking by Maliki, but in Sadr City and Maysan he hasn't done anything to really improve the conditions there through services other than very small, cosmetic job programs like garbage pick-ups. In Basra, the city had enough independent wealth to recover economically without the central government, and the SIIC could end up unseating the Fadhila party there, rather than Maliki's Dawa. <BR/><BR/>Right now, it appears that Maliki is only able to use the hammer when it comes to his opposition. I'm not sure the government even has the capabilities to do real reconstruction if it wanted to at this time, despite Maliki's promises of hundreds of millions for each area he's cleared out in the recent security ops.<BR/><BR/>It's definitely an interesting period in Iraqi history, and also shows the major changes, because while there is still violence (a Sadrist MP just got assassinate today), many of the struggles are now in the political rather than military field.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-14355189266494895142008-10-09T14:37:00.000-07:002008-10-09T14:37:00.000-07:00Could I recommend Rory Stewart's account of his ye...Could I recommend Rory Stewart's account of his year as governorate co-ordinator in Maysan in 2003-04"Occupational Hazards"? <BR/><BR/>Stewart was sent by the Brit FO. When he arrived the Brit military stationed there was backing a powerful shia tribal sheikh known as the "Prince of the Marshes" who had famously conducted an "insurgency" against Saddam from the southern marshlands.<BR/><BR/>The POM’s tribesmen lined up to warn Rory about the "turbans" - the Badrists and Sadrists who had appeared with Iranian-trained militias after the invasion.<BR/><BR/>Rory's brief from the CPA however was not to over promote the secular tribes against the others, but to establish a representative provisional council as preparation for a modern democracy. He did so, against the warnings of the Brit military commander there and the tribes. <BR/><BR/>Interestingly, both the secular tribes and the Badrists were united against the Sadrists at that stage, but Rory felt he had to try to bring them on board. <BR/><BR/>He worked very hard to do this, but the Sadrists first act was to assassinate the POM's tribal police chief after having invited him to Friday prayers at their mosque. <BR/><BR/>The provisional council elected one of the POM’s relatives to be the governor, but almost straight away the Sadrists stormed the governor’s office and trashed it. The Brit troops raised not a finger to stop them. (It was reminiscent to me of the US military sitting on its hands and allowing the looting and destruction straight after the invasion). The CPA was trying to nurture a representative democracy but the Brit military allowed the extremists to trash it.<BR/><BR/>Unsurprisingly, the Sadrists grew from strength to strength.<BR/><BR/>The POM and his relative (read the tribes) ended up doing a deal with them for their own preservation. The Badrists were the one's who were marginlised then!<BR/><BR/>Rory was moved to the neighbouring province of Dhi Khar and the Sadrists did the same thing there. <BR/><BR/>Rory (who was very popular with all sides, including the Sadrists) went back to Amara for the Jan 05 elections. The Sadrists had taken over the provincial council and the POM’s relative had been chucked out and the secular tribes completely out of it. Rory’s assumption based on his experience was that the Sadrists had intimidated the people into voting for them. Similar stuff happened in Dhi Kar, Basra etc.<BR/><BR/>In that context, the news that 17 Tribal Support Councils have been formed in Maysan is very significant. It means that the tribes are confident that the Iraqi government forces now have the power and they are safe to support the legitimate, elected government without fear of assassination from the mahdi army. <BR/><BR/>It also appears there has been an old story – ie the Sadrists abused their power and lost the support of the people. Everywhere they took control they imposed sharia law and religious courts – exactly what Alqi did in the Sunni areas.<BR/><BR/>I have not read of any instances where the UIA has imposed sharia law in the many shia provinces they control? In fact their agreement to the ban on use of religious images in election campaigning indicates that the routing of the Sadrists has allowed the shia govt parties to move away from sectarianism?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-29048158582640545282008-10-09T01:03:00.000-07:002008-10-09T01:03:00.000-07:001st, the United Iraqi Alliance really doesn't exis...1st, the United Iraqi Alliance really doesn't exist anymore. The Sadrists pulled out, and Dawa is going to run against the SIIC probably. The SIIC runs 8 provinces, and will probably add Basra as well. Who knows what will happen in Maysan where the Sadrists are still in power. I think the Tribal Support Councils, especially the recent ones in places like Babil, Wasit, etc. are a sign of the inter-Shiite rivalary, because they're a direct challenge to the SIIC by Maliki, hence all the negative remarks by SIIC members recently.Joel Winghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09611810110771744360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1953410733493889728.post-9327565085429394692008-10-08T23:51:00.000-07:002008-10-08T23:51:00.000-07:00In the Dec 2005 elections the UIA got 76% of the v...In the Dec 2005 elections the UIA got 76% of the vote in Babil, 80.7%in Wasit and 86.7% in Dhi Qar.<BR/><BR/>It is highly unlikely therefore the establishment shiite parties will fail to get a clear majority in the provincial elections, with or without the tribal support?<BR/><BR/>All the direct reporting coming out of Basra and Sadr City indicate the Sadrists are finished.<BR/><BR/>Maliki (not to my surprise)is consolidating the stability of the government by drawing in the tribes. Whether he is doing this for evil moustache twirling Persian lackey reasons as western anti war pundits love to imagine, remains to be seen.<BR/><BR/>But one clear motive he DOES have -by drawing in the tribes and marginalising the Mahdis and the SOI, he minimises the chances of an anti shia, anti government, anti constitution insurgency ever starting up again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com