Dramatic Drop In Deaths In Mosul

Mosul, the provincial capital of Ninewa in northern Iraq, is per capita, the most violence city in Iraq. After deaths there almost doubled in February 2010, they dropped to the lowest level since the U.S. invasion in March. There were 66 deaths in the city in February, up from 38 in January. That was just around the average of 64.5 deaths per month for the last half of 2009. In March however, there were only 27 people killed, an average of 0.87 per day.

That was especially remarkable, because attacks were just about the same as previous months, while the number of wounded was the highest since August 2009. In March there were an average of 2.16 security incidents per day, compared to 2.17 in February and 1.90 in January. 125 people were wounded last month, an average of 4.03 per day. That contrasted to 3.89 wounded per day in February, 2.87 per day in January, and 3.48 in December. The last time that March’s average was surpassed was in August when 5.51 people were wounded a day. It appears that insurgents tried to harm as many people as they usually do since the number of attacks in March were consistent with previous months. Their plans seemingly went awry however, as they ended up wounding more people than killing them.

Attack and Casualty Statistics for Mosul

Month	Attacks/Avg. Per Day	Deaths/Avg. Per Day	Wounded/Avg. Per Day
Aug. 09	77/2.48	102/3.29	171/5.51
Sep.	72/2.40	65/2.16	60/2.00
Oct.	66/2.12	60/1.93	82/2.64
Nov.	55/1.83	37/1.23	71/2.36
Dec.	60/1.93	44/1.41	108/3.48
Jan. 10	59/1.90	38/1.22	89/2.87
Feb.	61/2.17	66/2.35	109/3.89
Mar.	67/2.16	27/0.87	125/4.03

Breakdown Of Attacks/Incidents In Mosul - March 2010: 67
Drive by Shooting: 1
Kidnapping: 1
Sticky Bomb: 1
Assassination: 2
Shoot-out/Arrest: 4
Bombing: 4
Mortar Attack: 4+
Grenade Attack: 14+Armed Attack: 18
IED/Roadside Bomb: 18+

Violence in Mosul is notable because it lacks the large-scale bombings, which are common in Baghdad, but still ends up with the most casualties per capita of any major urban center in Iraq. Most of the attacks in Mosul are IEDs and roadside bombs, gunmen shooting individuals, and grenade attacks, the three most common forms of incidents in March. In comparison, there were only 3 large bombings in the city last month. Violence in Mosul is driven by the fact that it is the last urban stronghold of the insurgency. It’s likely to continue that way since militants play on the Arab-Kurd divide, which is the main dilemma facing Ninewa today.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “1 soldier, 1 civilian wounded in blast western Mosul,” 3/10/10
- “2 civilians injured in Mosul blast,” 3/20/10
- “2 civilians killed in eastern Mosul,” 3/30/10
- “2 Iraqi soldiers wounded in Mosul blast,” 3/21/10
- “2 persons wounded by hand grenade in Mosul,” 3/31/10
- “2 policemen wounded in Mosul blast,” 3/21/10
- “2 soldiers wounded in attack on voting center in Mosul,” 3/2/10
- “2 wounded in blast targeting U.S. forces in Mosul,” 3/21/10
- “3 gunmen killed in blast west of Mosul,” 3/13/10
- “3 mortars hit Mosul,” 3/23/10
- “4 army personnel wounded in Mosul,” 3/1/10
- “5 soldiers wounded in twin blasts in Mosul,” 3/20/10
- “6 wounded in Mosul attack,” 3/3/10
- “7 injured in attack on voting center in Mosul,” 3/7/10
- “12 killed, 49 injured on special voting day,” 3/4/10
- “Army force arrests 4 gunmen in Mosul,” 3/28/10
- “Army forces free hostage, detain kidnappers,” 3/25/10
- “Blast kills civilian in Mosul,” 3/15/10
- “Bomb kills soldiers, wounds 3 in Mosul,” 3/19/10
- “Bomb wounds civilian in Mosul,” 3/30/10
- “Christian killed in Mosul,” 3/17/10
- “Civilian gunned down in Mosul,” 3/2/10
- “Civilian killed, contractor injured in Mosul,” 3/15/10
- “Civilian killed in Mosul attack,” 3/13/10
- “Civilian wounded in grenade blast in Mosul,” 3/14/10
- “Civilian wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 3/28/10
- “Cop, gunman killed in central Mosul,” 3/9/10
- “Cop killed by sticky bomb in Mosul,” 3/3/10
- “Gunmen attack voting center in Mosul,” 3/4/10
- “Gunmen blew up tribal chief’s house in Mosul,” 3/28/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 3/22/10
- “Gunmen kill jail’s guard in Mosul,” 3/15/10
- “Gunmen shoot down aged man in Mosul,” 3/21/10
- “Gunmen shot, kill civilian in Mosul,” 3/9/10
- ‘Gunmen wound civilian in Mosul,” 3/19/10
- “Hand grenade kills civilian, injures 2 in Mosul,” 3/24/10
- “Hand grenade wounds cop in Mosul,” 3/20/10
- “Hand grenade wounds man, woman in Mosul,” 3/17/10
- “IED blast wounds policeman, child in Mosul,” 3/25/10
- “IED explodes near polling center, wounds 2 soldiers in Mosul,” 3/7/10
- “IED injures civilian, ex-officer’s house detonated in Mosul,” 3/24/10
- “IED targets house of ex-police director, wounds cop,” 3/10/10
- “IED wounds 5 in Mosul,” 3/24/10
- “Iraq soldier gunned down in Mosul,” 3/21/10
- “Iraqi forces kill al-Qaeda leader in Mosul,” 3/25/10
- “Mortar injures 3 in Mosul,” 3/3/10
- “Mortar wounds 7, including children, in Mosul,” 3/24/10
- “Mosque imam killed in Mosul,” 3/3/10
- “Mosque preacher killed in Mosul,” 3/14/10
- “Policeman wounded in grenade attack in Mosul,” 3/14/10
- “Roadside bomb wounds civilian in Mosul,” 3/15/10
- “Soldier killed in western Mosul,” 3/16/10
- “Soldier wounded in 2nd attack on voting center in Mosul,” 3/4/10
- “Soldier wounded in attack on Mosul,” 3/14/10
- “Thermal bomb injures cop, 2 children in Mosul,” 3/15/10
- “Trucker shot dead, son wounded in Mosul,” 3/18/10
- “U.S. forces kill gunman, wounds 2 in Mosul,” 3/26/10
- “Woman gunned down in Mosul,” 3/31/10
- “Woman gunned down inside her house in Mosul,” 3/18/10
- “Woman killed, 36 wounded in Mosul on election day-source,” 3/8/10
- “Woman, son wounded by hand grenade in Mosul,” 3/2/10