February 2010 Sees Deaths Almost Double In Mosul

The northern city of Mosul in Ninewa province saw a declining number of attacks and deaths at the end of 2009 that continued into the first month of 2010. In June 2009 for example, there were an average of 2.43 security incidents per day reported in the English language press, resulting in an average of 1.93 deaths per day and 4.10 wounded. Those numbers steadily went down until January 2010 when there were an average of 1.90 incidents, 1.22 deaths, and 2.87 wounded per day. February saw a reversal of that trend. Although the number of attacks stayed steady at 2.17 per day, the number of deaths jumped to 2.35 and wounded to 3.89.

Casualties overall in Iraq went up in February, but violence in Mosul has never really followed national trends in the last few years. The March parliamentary elections were probably the major cause for the up tick in casualties. Insurgents for example, launched a concerted campaign against Christians beginning in January 2010 that cost the lives of twelve people, and forced over 4,000 to flee the city. There were also several large bombings in Mosul, such as one on March 18 that wounded 23. Next month's numbers will show whether this was just a temporary increase because of the voting, or whether insurgents have regrouped and reloaded. It's important to follow trends in Mosul because it is the last urban stronghold of Sunni militants, and it cannot be said that they are defeated until violence in the city subsides.

Attack and Casualty Statistics for Mosul

Month	Attacks/Avg. Per Day	Deaths/Avg. Per Day	Wounded/Avg. Per Day
July 09	73/2.43	79/2.54	169/5.45
Aug.	77/2.48	102/3.29	171/5.51
Sep.	72/2.40	65/2.16	60/2.00
Oct.	66/2.12	60/1.93	82/2.64
Nov.	55/1.83	37/1.23	71/2.36
Dec.	60/1.93	44/1.41	108/3.48
Jan. 10	59/1.90	38/1.22	89/2.87
Feb.	61/2.17	66/2.35	109/3.89

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "3 Iraqi civilians killed in Mosul," 2/26/10

Aswat al-Iraq, "2 civilians killed inside their store in Mosul," 2/25/10
- "2 cops killed, child injured in Mosul," 2/23/10
- "2 cops killed in Mosul attack," 2/22/10
- "2 Iraqi soldiers killed in Mosul shooting," 2/22/10
- "2 killed, 9 wounded in Mosul blast," 2/16/10
- "2 killed, 10 wounded in blast in Mosul," 2/26/10
- "2 killed in separate incidents in Mosul," 2/6/10
- "2^nd Mosul blast leaves 9 wounded," 2/26/10
- "3, including mayor, wounded in Mosul," 2/10/10
- "5 killed, wounded in Mosul shooting," 2/13/10
- "6 civilians killed, wounded by roadside bomb in Mosul," 2/9/10
- "23 wounded in Mosul blast," 2/18/10
- "AQI leader killed, another wounded in Mosul operation," 2/15/10
- "Blast in Mosul leaves woman injured," 2/9/10
- "Blast wounds 2 army officers in Mosul," 2/16/10
- "Body of slain main found, 1 wounded separately in Mosul," 2/25/10
- "Bomb leaves army officer dead in Mosul," 2/3/10
- "Bomb leaves boy's leg amputated in Mosul," 2/13/10
- "Car bomb targets electoral candidate in Mosul," 2/21/10
- "Child wounded by bomb blast in western Mosul," 2/16/10
- "Christian gunned down in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Christian gunned down in Mosul shooting," 2/16/10
- "Christian student found dead in Mosul," 2/17/10
- "Cop killed in attack on Mosul checkpoints," 2/11/10
- "Female candidate assassinated in Mosul," 2/7/10
- "Gunmen kill 2 women in Mosul," 2/25/10
- "Gunmen kill 3 Christians in Mosul," 2/23/10
- "Gunmen kill civilian, young man in Mosul," 2/2/10
- "Gunmen kill civilians in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Gunmen kill woman in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Gunmen shoot down civilian out of mosque in Mosul," 2/4/10
- "Gunmen shoot down policeman in Mosul," 2/21/0
- "Hand grenade injures cop, civilian, child in Mosul," 2/2/10
- "Hand grenade targets Hadbaa police department," 2/20/10
- "Hand grenade wounds 2 in Mosul," 2/24/10
- "IED explodes in front of Mosul hospital," 2/8/10
- "IED injures 2 civilians in Mosul," 2/9/10
- "IED injures 5 in Mosul," 2/17/10
- "IED wounds 2 cops in Mosul," 2/22/10
- "Iraq soldier, gunman killed in Mosul clashes," 2/23/10
- "Iraqi soldier killed in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Mosul blast leaves 4 killed, wounded," 2/16/10
- "Soldier wounded in Mosul blast," 2/5/10
- "Weeklong kidnapped Christian man's body found in Mosul," 2/20/10
- "Woman, policeman killed in Mosul," 2/23/10
- "Young man killed in blast in northern Mosul," 2/11/10

Canadian Press, "Number of US troops in Iraq at lowest level since 2003 invasion, military says," 2/16/10

DPA, "Three Iraqis killed, one injured in separate attacks," 2/15/10
- "Three police killed in Iraq blast," 2/20/10

Issa, Sahar, "Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq Wednesday 3 February, 2010," McClatchy Newspapers, 2/3/10

Reuters, "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 1," 2/1/10
- "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 3," 2/3/10
- "Iraqi Christians Protest Slayings," 2/28/10