Voting Down In 2010, But Election Shows New Balance Of Power In Iraq

The early returns for the March 7, 2010 election are in. They show that voting was down from the last parliamentary vote in 2005. In December 2005 76% of the population showed up at the polls, compared to 62% in 2010. This year participation was down across the country. In Basra, a largely Shiite province turnout went from 74% in 2005 to 57% in 2010. In Ninewa, that has a Sunni majority, but also includes Kurds, Christians, Yazidis, and Shabaks voting went from 70% in 2005 to 66%. In the Kurdish province of Sulaymaniya turnout dropped from 84% in 2005 to 73%. The Shiite provinces of Muthanna and Qadisiyah had the smallest declines going from 66% to 61% and 65% to 63% respectively.

Voter Turnout For 2005 vs 2010 Parliamentary Elections
Anbar 86% vs 61%
Babil 80% vs 62%
Baghdad 70% vs 53%
Basra 74% vs 57%
Dhi Qar 72% vs 60%
Diyala 75% vs 62%
Dohuk 92% vs 80%
Irbil 95% vs 76%
Karbala 70% vs 62%
Maysan 73% vs 50%
Muthanna 66% vs 61%
Najaf 73% vs 61%
Ninewa 70% vs 66%
Qadisiyah 65% vs 63%
Salahaddin 98% vs 73%
Sulaymaniya 84% vs 73%
Tamim 86% vs 73%
Wasit 68% vs 60%

Iraqis greeted the 2005 vote with much enthusiasm after years of dictatorial rule by Saddam Hussein. By 2010 attitudes had begun to change. Most importantly there is a growing level of cynicism, especially amongst the young about the country’s politicians. They have not been able to deliver on their promises of better services, jobs, and economic development, plus Baathism dominated this year’s campaign rather than anything substantive. A change in the publics’ perception could be seen in the January 2009 elections where turnout was lower than the January 2005 provincial balloting. March’s election did have a better showing however than 2009 when only 51% voted. 

The real importance of the vote is that it will solidify the new balance of power within Iraq between its major parties that began to emerge in 2008. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law is likely to come out the frontrunner, showing that his strong actions against the Shiite militias and insurgents in 2008, and his strengthening of the Iraqi state still make him the most popular politician in Iraq. That is quite a change from before when his Dawa Party was a minor player compared to the Supreme Council (SIIC) and the Sadrists, who chose him as their compromise candidate in 2005 because he seemed weak and malleable to their whims. Iyad Allawi’s National Movement looks to be the runner-up. His list is a mix of Sunnis and Shiites, and ran on a nationalist stance, but more importantly, Allawi has not been in power since 2005 so he offers a change from the current ruling parties. The National Alliance is likely to come in third showing that while the SIIC and Sadr still have their followers, they can no longer be considered the leading Shiite parties, having been eclipsed by the Prime Minister. Finally, the Kurdish Alliance must come to grips with the emergence of the Change List, and the Iraqi Islamic Party and its Consensus List has lost almost all relevance as the Sunni vote has been split across various other parties, leaving them behind.

Next, the State of Law and National Movement will begin maneuvering to put together a new ruling coalition. They will look to the National Alliance and Kurdish Alliance, because it will take at least one if not both to reach the 163 seats in parliament necessary for a majority. The smaller lists like the Unity of Iraq and Change might also be brought into the negotiations to get the required number of seats. Each will be looking for ministries in exchange for their support, and the Kurds will be asking for concessions on Kirkuk and oil deals. The major debate will be over whether Maliki or Allawi will become Prime Minister, and a compromise candidate may have to emerge if things become deadlocked like they did in 2005. This process is likely to take months as a result.

SOURCES

Arraf, Jane, “Iraq election: Young war generation yearns for old stability,” Christian Science Monitor, 3/4/10

August, Oliver, “Iraq poll turnout at up to 60 per cent despite attacks,” Times of London, 3/8/10

BBC, “Iraq election voter turnout ‘62%,’” 3/8/10

Visser, Reidar, “IHEC Publishes Rates of Participation in the Parliamentary Elections,” Iraq And Gulf Analysis, 3/8/10