Sunday, February 1, 2009

Comparing The January 2009 to January 2005 Provincial Elections (REVISED)

The results of the January 2009 elections will not be known for weeks, but the early returns show a lower turnout than the last time Iraqis voted on provincial councils in January 2005. At that time, 58% of Iraqis, over 8 million out of approximately 14 million people cast ballots. That included out-of-country voting in fourteen nations where 280,303 Iraqis registered. It also included a massive Sunni boycott, where only around 2% showed up. The first counts for the 2009 vote have 51% turnout with around 7.5 million out of 14.9 million registered voters participating. If those numbers hold it could be a disappointing finish. In Anbar for example where the Awakening tribes were having a heated campaign against the Iraqi Islamic Party for control only 40% voted. There were many early reports of widespread apathy amongst Iraqis who felt that politics had not improved their daily lives, that could be proving true. There are also growing reports of voters either being left off of roles or being confused about where their election centers were.

Here are the early returns for the January 31 vote compared to the January 2005 election.

January 31, 2009 Provincial Election Early Voter Turnout By Province

Anbar: 40%
Babil: 56%
Baghdad: Still pending, expected 39-40%
Basra: 48%
Dhi Qar: 50%
Diyala: 57%
Karbala: 60%
Maysan: 46%
Muthanna: 61%
Najaf: 55%
Ninewa: 60%
Qadisiyah: 58%
Salahaddin: 65%
Wasit: 54%

January 2005 Provincial Election Voter Turnout By Province

Anbar 2%
Babil 71%
Baghdad 48%
Dhi Qar 67%
Diyala 34%
Dohuk 89%
Karbala 73%
Maysan 59%
Muthanna 61%
Najaf 73%
Ninewa 17%
Qadisiyah 69%
Salahaddin 29%
Sulaymaniya 80%
Wasit 66%

Who Currently Rules Iraq’s Provinces

ANBAR
Governor: Mamoun Sami Rashid al-Awani
Party Votes Seats
Iraqi Islamic Party (Hashemi) 2,692 29
Independent Iraqi Group 755 8
Reconciliation and Liberation Bloc 328 4
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 3,775 41
INVALID BALLOTS 28
BABIL
Governor: Salim al-Mesalmaoui
Party Votes Seats
Faithful Iraqis Association (Supreme Council)192,643 25
Al-Rasul Association 43,226 6
Imam Ali Society 41,607 6
Security & Reconstruction 17,295 2
Babil Independent Association 15,779 2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 494,054 41
INVALID AND BLANK BALLOTS 21,786
BAGHDAD
Governor: Hussein al-Tahan, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
Party VotesSeats
Baghdad Nation (Supreme Council) 694,800 28
Baghdad Peace (Dawa) 264,130 11
Islamic al-Fadhila Party 156,229 6
National Democratic Alliance 46,265 2
Iraqi Communist Party 36,713 2
National Independent Cadres and Elites (Sadrists)35,441 1
Iraqi Independent al-Bayan Gathering 34,366 1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 1,750,772 51
INVALID BALLOTS 21,600
BASRA
Governor: Muhmmad al-Waili, Islamic al-Fadhila Party
Al-Waili became governor because the Supreme Council ran two candidates and split their vote.
In April 2007 the Supreme Council had a no confidence vote against al-Waili that was ratified by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in July, but al-Waili is still in office.
Al-Waili was temporarily placed under house arrest during the government offensive in Basra in March 2008.
Party Votes Seats
Islamic Basra (Supreme Council) 235,704 20
Islamic al-Fadhila Party 150,823 12
Iraqi National List (Allawi) 49,005 4
Islamic Dawa Party 37,997 3
Iraqi Independent List21,236 2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 713,271 41
INVALID BALLOTS 7,733
DHI QAR
Governor: Aziz Kadum Alwan al-Ogheli, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
Party Votes Seats
Islamic Al-Fadhila Party 103,114 11
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 100,237 11
Islamic Dawa – Iraq Organization89,263 10
Iraqi National List (Allawi) 20,767 2
Islamic Movement of the 15th of Shaaban19,709 2
Iraqi Communist Party 18,769 2
Iraqi Independent Gathering 15,531 2
Independent Coalition for the Care of Democracy 13,880 1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS522,271 41
INVALID BALLOTS 4,707
DIYALA
Governor: Raad Hameed al-Mula al-Tamimi, Badr Brigade, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
Party Votes Seats
Coalition of Islamic & National Forces in Diyala (Dawa & Supreme Council) 84,390 20
Iraqi Islamic Party (Hashemi)55,960 14
Kurdish Arabic Turkmen Democratic Coalition – Diyala Governorate 30,268 7
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 210,574 41
INVALID BALLOTS 3,283
DOHUK
Governor: Tamar Ramadan, Kurdistan Democratic Party
Party Votes Seats
Kurdistan Democratic Party302,133 33
Kurdistan Islamic Union 35,675 4
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan 35,483 4
TOTAL VALLID BALLOTS 383,265 41
INVALID BALLOTS 5,273
IRBIL
Governor: Ali Nikzad, Kurdistan Democratic Party
Party Votes Seats
Democratic Voice of Kurdistan List (Kurdistan Democratic Party)347,772 23
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan 244,343 16
Kurdistan Islamic Union 22,523 1
Islamic Group of Kurdistan 18,781 1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 647,994 41
INVALID BALLOTS 16,622
KARBALA
Governor: Uqeil al-Khazaali, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
Party Votes Seats
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 101,932 21
Islamic al-Fadhila Party 22,085 5
Shiite Political Council 10,655 2
Democratic Progressive Gathering 9,698 2
Independent Council of Tribal Sheikhs & Notables of Karbala Governorate9,647 2
Iraqi Democratic Current 9,161 2
Independent Unified List for the Governorate of Holy Karbala 8,719 2
Dr. Abbas al-Hasnawi 8,621 1
Democratic Meeting for Holy Karbala 7,605 2
Independent Intellectuals Gathering 7,233 2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 297,201 41
INVALID BALLOTS 3,168
MAYSAN
Governor: Adil Mahwadar Radi, Sadrist
Party Votes Seats
Al-Hussayni Thought Forum (Sadrists) 78,859 15
Islamic Unified Front (Supreme Council) 28,211 6
Islamic Dawa – Iraq Organization 25,3885
Islamic al-Fadhila Party 20,379 4
Al-Rida Center for Culture & Guidance 13,410 3
Gathering of the Independent Sons of Maysan 9,674 2
Iraqi Republican Group 7,560 2
Islamic Dawa Party 7,006 1
Maysan Democratic Coalition 6,833 1
Shiite Political Council6,558 1
Independent National Islamic Congregation 6,201 1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 246,957 41
INVALID BALLOTS 1,559
MUTHANNA
Governor: Muhammad ali-Hassan Abbas al-Hassani, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
Al-Hassani was assassinated in August 2007
Ahmad Marzouq Salal of the Dawa Party who was head of the provincial council took his place.
Party Votes Seats
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 23,918 8
Islamic al-Fadhila Party 18,206 6
Al-Furat al-Awsat Assembly 17,924 6
Islamic Independent Society 14,5505
Islamic Dawa Party 13,354 4
Gathering for al-Muthanna 12,687 4
Allegiance Coalition 10,221 3
Iraqi National List (Allawi) 7,530 3
Iraqi Communist Party 5,602 2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 173,155 41
INVALID BALLOTS 2,004
NAJAF
Governor: Asad Abu Gilel al-Taie, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
Party Votes Seats
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 133,676 19
Loyalty to Al-Najaf 64,837 9
Banner of the Independents 26,585 4
Iraqi National List (Allawi) 23,663 3
Islamic al-Fadhila Party 15,999 2
Allegiance Coalition13,464 2
Iraq Future Gathering 11,513 2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 359,268 41
INVALID BALLOTS 3,079
NINEWA
Governor: Usama Yousif Kashmula, Independent
Kashmula was assassinated in July 2004
Duraid Kashmoula, his brother, took his place
Party Votes Seats
Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan (Kurdistan Democratic Party & Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) 109,295 31
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council 17,255 5
Iraqi Islamic Party (Hashemi) 7,065 2
Council of the United Clans of Mosul 6,624 2
National Rafidain List4,650 1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 165,934 41
INVALID BALLOTS 864
QADISIYAH
Governor: Khalil Jalil Hamza, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
Hamza was assassinated in August 2007
Hamid al-Khodairi of the Supreme Council replaced him
Party VotesSeats
Martyr of the Sanctuary Sayyid Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim (Supreme Council) 102,005 20
Shiite Political Council 26,898 5
Islamic Dawa Party 15,446 3
Iraqi National List (Allawi) 15,396 3
Islamic al-Fadhila Party 14,606 3
Independent Brotherhood (Sadrists)14,485 3
Islamic Dawa Party – Iraq Organization 10,854 2
Loyalty to Iraq Coalition (Sadrists) 8,052 2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 337,220 41
INVALID BALLOTS 3,898
SALAHADDIN
Governor: Hamed Hamood Shekti al-Qaisi
Party Votes Seats
List of the Unified Democratic Coalition in Salahaddin Governorate (Kurdish Democratic Party & Patriot Union of Kurdistan)22,160 8
Liberation & Reconciliation Gathering 17,017 6
Iraqi Turkmen Front 14,917 5
Coalition of the Iraqi National Unity 13,321 5
Unified List12,815 4
Iraqi National List (Allawi) 10,215 3
Islamic Dawa Party 8,691 3
National Iraqi Gathering 8,641 3
National al-Resalyoon List (Sadrists) 6,133 2
Gathering of Independent in Salahadin 4,739 2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 137,476 41
INVALID BALLOTS1,834
SULAYMANIYA
Governor: Dana Ahmed Majid, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
Party Votes Seats
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan 485,718 28
Kurdistan Islamic Union 75,008 5
Islamic Group of Kurdistan 53,088 5
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq 91,578 3
Communist Party of Kurdistan 8,192
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 731,323 41
INVALID BALLOTS 13,183
TAMIM

Governor: Abdulrahman Mustapha Fatah
Party Votes Seats
List of Kurdistan Brotherhood (Kurdistan Democratic Party) 237,303 26
Iraqi Turkoman Front 73,7918
Iraqi Republican Group 43,635 5
Islamic Turkoman Coalition 12,678 1
National Iraq Union 12,329 1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 400,892 41
INVALID BALLOTS 5,059
WASIT
Governor: Latif Hamid Turfa, Sadrist
Party Votes Seats
Iraqi Elites Gathering 185,813 31
Shiite Political Council (Supreme Council & Dawa) 22,346 4
Gathering of the Independents in Wasit 16,518 3
Iraqi Communist Party 12,780 2
Democratic Iraq Gathering 9,010 1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS 324,678 41
INVALID BALLOTS 2,704


NOTES
Allawi = Former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi of the Iraqi National List, aka Iraqi National Accord

Hashemi = Vice President Tariq Hashemi of the Iraqi Islamic Party that is part of the Iraqi Accordance Front

SOURCES

BBC, “Q&A: Iraqi election,” 2/13/05

Biddle, Stephen, Nasr, Vali, Nash, William, “Political and Security Developments in Iraq and the Region,” Council on Foreign Relations, 6/12/08

Chon, Gina and Naji, Zaineb, “Iraq Drive for Voters Lags,” Wall Street Journal, 9/18/08

Cordesman, Anthony, “The Shi’ite Gamble: Rolling The Dice For Iraq’s Future,” Center for Strategic And International Studies, 4/21/08

Dagher, Sam, “Basra strike against Shiite militias also about oil,” Christian Science Monitor, 4/9/08

Dreyfuss, Robert, “Iraq’s Election: What to Watch For,” The Nation, 1/28/09

Farrell, Stephen, “Election Turnout: Early Figures,” Baghdad Bureau Blog, New York Times, 2/1/09

International Mission for Iraqi Elections, “Final Report: Assessment of the January 30, 2005, Election Process,” August 2005

IRIN, “IRAQ: Year in Review 2005 – Iraqis go to the polls,” 1/9/06

Knights, Michael and McCarthy, Eamon, “Provincial Politics in Iraq: Fragmentation or New Awakening?” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2008

Naji, Zaineb and Salman, Daud, “Iraq: Political Dynamics in Advance of Parliamentary Elections,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 2005

Najm, Hayder, “Poor Election Turnout Feared,” Niqash, 12/5/08

Nation Master.com, “Encyclopedia > National Independent Cadres and Elites”

Susman, Tina, “IRAQ: Low turnout mars Iraqi election,” Babylon & Beyond Blog, Los Angeles Times, 2/1/09

1 comment:

motown67 said...

The Salman Pax blog made a good criticism of this story.

http://salampax.wordpress.com/2009/02/02/sunni-side-down-i-think-not/

He said that I was underestimating the importance of the Sunni turnout in the 2009 provincial election. I have to agree. When I wrote that they had a poor turnout I was just thinking of Anbar where only 40% participated. In the rest of the country the Sunnis were said to have been enthusiastic about the vote, and had high voting rates.