Comparing The January 2009 to January 2005 Provincial Elections (REVISED)

The results of the January 2009 elections will not be known for weeks, but the early returns show a lower turnout than the last time Iraqis voted on provincial councils in January 2005. At that time, 58% of Iraqis, over 8 million out of approximately 14 million people cast ballots. That included out-of-country voting in fourteen nations where 280,303 Iraqis registered. It also included a massive Sunni boycott, where only around 2% showed up. The first counts for the 2009 vote have 51% turnout with around 7.5 million out of 14.9 million registered voters participating. If those numbers hold it could be a disappointing finish. In Anbar for example where the Awakening tribes were having a heated campaign against the Iraqi Islamic Party for control only 40% voted. There were many early reports of widespread apathy amongst Iraqis who felt that politics had not improved their daily lives, that could be proving true. There are also growing reports of voters either being left off of roles or being confused about where their election centers were.

Here are the early returns for the January 31 vote compared to the January 2005 election.

January 31, 2009 Provincial Election Early Voter Turnout By Province

Anbar: 40%
Babil: 56%
Baghdad: Still pending, expected 39-40%
Basra: 48%
Dhi Qar: 50%
Diyala: 57%
Karbala: 60%
Maysan: 46%
Muthanna: 61%
Najaf: 55%
Ninewa: 60%
Qadisiyah: 58%
Salahaddin: 65%
Wasit: 54%

January 2005 Provincial Election Voter Turnout By Province

Anbar 2%
Babil 71%
Baghdad 48%
Dhi Qar 67%
Diyala 34%
Dohuk 89%
Karbala 73%
Maysan 59%
Muthanna 61%
Najaf 73%
Ninewa 17%
Qadisiyah 69%
Salahaddin 29%
Sulaymaniya 80%
Wasit 66%

Who Currently Rules Iraq’s Provinces

ANBAR

Governor: Mamoun Sami Rashid al-Awani

Party	Votes	Seats
Iraqi Islamic Party (Hashemi)	2,692	29
Independent Iraqi Group	755	8
Reconciliation and Liberation Bloc	328	4
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	3,775	41
INVALID BALLOTS	28

BABIL

Governor: Salim al-Mesalmaoui

Party	Votes	Seats
Faithful Iraqis Association (Supreme Council)	192,643	25
Al-Rasul Association	43,226	6
Imam Ali Society	41,607	6
Security & Reconstruction	17,295	2
Babil Independent Association	15,779	2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	494,054	41
INVALID AND BLANK BALLOTS	21,786

BAGHDAD

Governor: Hussein al-Tahan, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Party	Votes	Seats
Baghdad Nation (Supreme Council)	694,800	28
Baghdad Peace (Dawa)	264,130	11
Islamic al-Fadhila Party	156,229	6
National Democratic Alliance	46,265	2
Iraqi Communist Party	36,713	2
National Independent Cadres and Elites (Sadrists)	35,441	1
Iraqi Independent al-Bayan Gathering	34,366	1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	1,750,772	51
INVALID BALLOTS	21,600

BASRA

Governor: Muhmmad al-Waili, Islamic al-Fadhila Party

Al-Waili became governor because the Supreme Council ran two candidates and split their vote.

In April 2007 the Supreme Council had a no confidence vote against al-Waili that was ratified by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in July, but al-Waili is still in office.

Al-Waili was temporarily placed under house arrest during the government offensive in Basra in March 2008.

Party	Votes	Seats
Islamic Basra (Supreme Council)	235,704	20
Islamic al-Fadhila Party	150,823	12
Iraqi National List (Allawi)	49,005	4
Islamic Dawa Party	37,997	3
Iraqi Independent List	21,236	2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	713,271	41
INVALID BALLOTS	7,733

DHI QAR

Governor: Aziz Kadum Alwan al-Ogheli, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Party	Votes	Seats
Islamic Al-Fadhila Party	103,114	11
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council	100,237	11
Islamic Dawa – Iraq Organization	89,263	10
Iraqi National List (Allawi)	20,767	2
Islamic Movement of the 15th of Shaaban	19,709	2
Iraqi Communist Party	18,769	2
Iraqi Independent Gathering	15,531	2
Independent Coalition for the Care of Democracy	13,880	1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	522,271	41
INVALID BALLOTS	4,707

DIYALA

Governor: Raad Hameed al-Mula al-Tamimi, Badr Brigade, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Party	Votes	Seats
Coalition of Islamic & National Forces in Diyala (Dawa & Supreme Council)	84,390	20
Iraqi Islamic Party (Hashemi)	55,960	14
Kurdish Arabic Turkmen Democratic Coalition – Diyala Governorate	30,268	7
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	210,574	41
INVALID BALLOTS	3,283

DOHUK

Governor: Tamar Ramadan, Kurdistan Democratic Party

Party	Votes	Seats
Kurdistan Democratic Party	302,133	33
Kurdistan Islamic Union	35,675	4
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan	35,483	4
TOTAL VALLID BALLOTS	383,265	41
INVALID BALLOTS	5,273

IRBIL

Governor: Ali Nikzad, Kurdistan Democratic Party

Party	Votes	Seats
Democratic Voice of Kurdistan List (Kurdistan Democratic Party)	347,772	23
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan	244,343	16
Kurdistan Islamic Union	22,523	1
Islamic Group of Kurdistan	18,781	1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	647,994	41
INVALID BALLOTS	16,622

KARBALA

Governor: Uqeil al-Khazaali, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Party	Votes	Seats
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council	101,932	21
Islamic al-Fadhila Party	22,085	5
Shiite Political Council	10,655	2
Democratic Progressive Gathering	9,698	2
Independent Council of Tribal Sheikhs & Notables of Karbala Governorate	9,647	2
Iraqi Democratic Current	9,161	2
Independent Unified List for the Governorate of Holy Karbala	8,719	2
Dr. Abbas al-Hasnawi	8,621	1
Democratic Meeting for Holy Karbala	7,605	2
Independent Intellectuals Gathering	7,233	2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	297,201	41
INVALID BALLOTS	3,168

MAYSAN

Governor: Adil Mahwadar Radi, Sadrist

Party	Votes	Seats
Al-Hussayni Thought Forum (Sadrists)	78,859	15
Islamic Unified Front (Supreme Council)	28,211	6
Islamic Dawa – Iraq Organization	25,388	5
Islamic al-Fadhila Party	20,379	4
Al-Rida Center for Culture & Guidance	13,410	3
Gathering of the Independent Sons of Maysan	9,674	2
Iraqi Republican Group	7,560	2
Islamic Dawa Party	7,006	1
Maysan Democratic Coalition	6,833	1
Shiite Political Council	6,558	1
Independent National Islamic Congregation	6,201	1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	246,957	41
INVALID BALLOTS	1,559

MUTHANNA

Governor: Muhammad ali-Hassan Abbas al-Hassani, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Al-Hassani was assassinated in August 2007

Ahmad Marzouq Salal of the Dawa Party who was head of the provincial council took his place.

Party	Votes	Seats
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council	23,918	8
Islamic al-Fadhila Party	18,206	6
Al-Furat al-Awsat Assembly	17,924	6
Islamic Independent Society	14,550	5
Islamic Dawa Party	13,354	4
Gathering for al-Muthanna	12,687	4
Allegiance Coalition	10,221	3
Iraqi National List (Allawi)	7,530	3
Iraqi Communist Party	5,602	2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	173,155	41
INVALID BALLOTS	2,004

NAJAF

Governor: Asad Abu Gilel al-Taie, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Party	Votes	Seats
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council	133,676	19
Loyalty to Al-Najaf	64,837	9
Banner of the Independents	26,585	4
Iraqi National List (Allawi)	23,663	3
Islamic al-Fadhila Party	15,999	2
Allegiance Coalition	13,464	2
Iraq Future Gathering	11,513	2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	359,268	41
INVALID BALLOTS	3,079

NINEWA

Governor: Usama Yousif Kashmula, Independent

Kashmula was assassinated in July 2004

Duraid Kashmoula, his brother, took his place

Party	Votes	Seats
Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan (Kurdistan Democratic Party & Patriotic Union of Kurdistan)	109,295	31
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council	17,255	5
Iraqi Islamic Party (Hashemi)	7,065	2
Council of the United Clans of Mosul	6,624	2
National Rafidain List	4,650	1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	165,934	41
INVALID BALLOTS	864

QADISIYAH

Governor: Khalil Jalil Hamza, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Hamza was assassinated in August 2007

Hamid al-Khodairi of the Supreme Council replaced him

Party	Votes	Seats
Martyr of the Sanctuary Sayyid Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim (Supreme Council)	102,005	20
Shiite Political Council	26,898	5
Islamic Dawa Party	15,446	3
Iraqi National List (Allawi)	15,396	3
Islamic al-Fadhila Party	14,606	3
Independent Brotherhood (Sadrists)	14,485	3
Islamic Dawa Party – Iraq Organization	10,854	2
Loyalty to Iraq Coalition (Sadrists)	8,052	2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	337,220	41
INVALID BALLOTS	3,898

SALAHADDIN

Governor: Hamed Hamood Shekti al-Qaisi

Party	Votes	Seats
List of the Unified Democratic Coalition in Salahaddin Governorate (Kurdish Democratic Party & Patriot Union of Kurdistan)	22,160	8
Liberation & Reconciliation Gathering	17,017	6
Iraqi Turkmen Front	14,917	5
Coalition of the Iraqi National Unity	13,321	5
Unified List	12,815	4
Iraqi National List (Allawi)	10,215	3
Islamic Dawa Party	8,691	3
National Iraqi Gathering	8,641	3
National al-Resalyoon List (Sadrists)	6,133	2
Gathering of Independent in Salahadin	4,739	2
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	137,476	41
INVALID BALLOTS	1,834

SULAYMANIYA

Governor: Dana Ahmed Majid, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan

Party	Votes	Seats
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan	485,718	28
Kurdistan Islamic Union	75,008	5
Islamic Group of Kurdistan	53,088	5
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq	91,578	3
Communist Party of Kurdistan	8,192
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	731,323	41
INVALID BALLOTS	13,183

TAMIM

Governor: Abdulrahman Mustapha Fatah

Party	Votes	Seats
List of Kurdistan Brotherhood (Kurdistan Democratic Party)	237,303	26
Iraqi Turkoman Front	73,791	8
Iraqi Republican Group	43,635	5
Islamic Turkoman Coalition	12,678	1
National Iraq Union	12,329	1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	400,892	41
INVALID BALLOTS	5,059

WASIT

Governor: Latif Hamid Turfa, Sadrist

Party	Votes	Seats
Iraqi Elites Gathering	185,813	31
Shiite Political Council (Supreme Council & Dawa)	22,346	4
Gathering of the Independents in Wasit	16,518	3
Iraqi Communist Party	12,780	2
Democratic Iraq Gathering	9,010	1
TOTAL VALID BALLOTS	324,678	41
INVALID BALLOTS	2,704

NOTES
Allawi = Former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi of the Iraqi National List, aka Iraqi National Accord

Hashemi = Vice President Tariq Hashemi of the Iraqi Islamic Party that is part of the Iraqi Accordance Front

SOURCES

BBC, “Q&A: Iraqi election,” 2/13/05

Biddle, Stephen, Nasr, Vali, Nash, William, “Political and Security Developments in Iraq and the Region,” Council on Foreign Relations, 6/12/08

Chon, Gina and Naji, Zaineb, “Iraq Drive for Voters Lags,” Wall Street Journal, 9/18/08

Cordesman, Anthony, “The Shi’ite Gamble: Rolling The Dice For Iraq’s Future,” Center for Strategic And International Studies, 4/21/08

Dagher, Sam, “Basra strike against Shiite militias also about oil,” Christian Science Monitor, 4/9/08

Dreyfuss, Robert, “Iraq’s Election: What to Watch For,” The Nation, 1/28/09

Farrell, Stephen, “Election Turnout: Early Figures,” Baghdad Bureau Blog, New York Times, 2/1/09

International Mission for Iraqi Elections, “Final Report: Assessment of the January 30, 2005, Election Process,” August 2005

IRIN, “IRAQ: Year in Review 2005 – Iraqis go to the polls,” 1/9/06

Knights, Michael and McCarthy, Eamon, “Provincial Politics in Iraq: Fragmentation or New Awakening?” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2008

Naji, Zaineb and Salman, Daud, “Iraq: Political Dynamics in Advance of Parliamentary Elections,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 2005

Najm, Hayder, “Poor Election Turnout Feared,” Niqash, 12/5/08

Nation Master.com, “Encyclopedia > National Independent Cadres and Elites”

Susman, Tina, “IRAQ: Low turnout mars Iraqi election,” Babylon & Beyond Blog, Los Angeles Times, 2/1/09