Iraq No Closer To Solving Its Electricity Problems

2013 looks to be another year that the Iraqi government fails to end its energy supply problems. Since the beginning of the year various officials and offices from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to his deputy Hussein Shahristani to the Electricity Ministry have promised that by the end of the year there will be no more blackouts and power outages in the country. In June for example, the Electricity Ministry said that it had achieved its highest production since 2003. This has been met by widespread skepticism by members of parliament and the public as Baghdad has become completely untrustworthy when it comes to announcements about the progress it is making with its national grid.

This mess of power lines in an Iraqi city is symbolic of the government’s attempts to solve its electricity shortages (BBC)

Iraq’s Electricity Ministry recently claimed that it had reached the highest power output since the 2003 invasion. On June 13, the Ministry said that it had reached 10,000 megawatts in capacity. That was close to reaching its goal for the year of 11,000 megawatts. The Ministry went on to claim that it was providing 15-24 hours of power per day to the public. Baghdad was receiving 15 hours per day, Diyala 16 hours, Wasit 20 hours, and Maysan and Tamim 24 hours each according to the Ministry. It went on to promise new power stations at the end of the month and early July. Since January Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Deputy Premier Hussein Shahristani who is in charge of energy policy, and the Electricity Ministry have been promising that this is the year that the country will finally overcome its electricity shortages. In April for example, the Ministry told the press that private generator operators would have to sell their equipment by October when demand was finally met. This is just the latest round of such promises. For years now, Baghdad has been making claim after claim that it is just around the corner from solving this dilemma. That has led to a growing sense of skepticism amongst the public and parliament.

June has witnessed protests in Nasiriyah over constant power shortages (Al-Mada)

 

There are plenty of reasons to question the government’s recent statements that it will be meeting demand. First, the Electricity Ministry’s own numbers don’t add up. It said its goal for the year was to reach 11,000 megawatts in capacity, but then it said that Iraqis were using around 14,200 megawatts. Second, it has cut back its own target several times. Towards the beginning of the year officials like Deputy Premier Shashristani were saying that Iraq would be producing 12,000 megawatts by the end of 2013. Before that, the Ministry was supposed to reach 13,000 megawatts before the summer. Third, the country has never been able to produce at capacity, because of a number of problems. The Ministry admitted as much when it told the press on June 13 that it was down 690 megawatts due to a lack of fuel and other issues. The next day that number increased to 1,600 megawatts in lost production. Fourth, in May, as a sign that public production was not going to be enough the cabinet agreed to provide private generator operators with free fuel for the summer. That same month, a parliamentarian from the oil and energy committee claimed that three new power stations came on line in Wasit, Karbala, and Babil, but were not operating. Finally, the public is boiling over with anger at the continued blackouts and lack of steady electricity, and calling Baghdad’s bluff that those problems will be solved anytime soon. That has led to protests in Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province since the beginning of June. The Electricity Ministry’s figures and actions prove that it will not be close to meeting demand by the end of the year. Even if it were to produce at capacity it would still be several hundred megawatts short. The country also lacks the infrastructure like power lines to deliver all the electricity it wants to produce or the fuel to run all the new stations it is building. The public and members of parliament know this, which is why no one believes Baghdad when it talks about all the progress it is making.

The lack of electricity is one of the biggest complaints made by average Iraqis. For three years now people have taken to the streets to protest against the government’s failure to address this issue. 2013 is no different with on going demonstrations in Nasiriyah. Every time the Electricity Ministry or an official starts talking about the problem being solved in just a few months, a member of parliament points out that Baghdad has been making those same types of statements for years. That all means that Iraq is heading for another hot summer with plenty of blackouts and angry citizens, because the government’s plans are nowhere near coming to fruition, and the way they’ve been going won’t be ay time soon.

SOURCES

AIN, “3 power station inaugurated, yet without production, says Sa’ad,” 5/12/13

- “MP describes promises to resolve electric power crisis in Iraq as “exaggerated,” 4/11/13

- “MP holds government, MoE responsible for flounder at electric power projects,” 6/12/13

Alsumaria, “Iraqi Cabinet provides private generators with free fuel,” 5/21/13

Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraq achieves electricity self-sufficiency end of 2013,” 1/20/13

- “Iraqi electricity production to reach 12,000 megawatts,” 4/18/13

Azzaman, “Iraq to hit “final nail in coffin of darkness” in October,” 4/8/13

Al-Mada, “”Electricity Demonstrations” in Nasiriyah continue for a seventh day,” 6/8/13

- “Electricity Ministry achieves the highest energy production from 15 to 24 hours a day,” 6/13/13

- “Electricity: our output rose (6500) MW for 2003 and we still need (4200) MW extra,” 6/14/13

Saeed, Samer, “Stability in power supplies leads to surge in prices of cooling gadgets,” Azzaman, 4/15/13

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Iraq Prime Minister Maliki’s State Of Law Fighting Back For Control of Provinces

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law (SOL) was the biggest winner in the 2013 local elections, but things have not worked out the way it planned. It came away with wins in seven provinces, Baghdad, Basra, Babil, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Karbala, and Muthanna. The premier was hoping that this would be a stepping stone to the 2014 parliamentary vote. Things quickly turned against him however, when the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) broke an early deal with State of Law, and aligned with the Sadr Trend’s Liberal bloc to try to shut out him out. Maliki is now fighting back trying to form his own ruling coalitions in several provinces.

Maliki’s list won in Baghdad (8), Basra (18), Babil (11), Qadisiyah (14), Dhi Qar (17), Karbala (14), and Muthanna (16). Since then his list has only been able to form governments in Basra (18), Dhi Qar (17), and Najaf (13). (Wikipedia)

Initially, it looked like State of Law would be shut out of all seven provinces it won, but now it is trying to make a comeback. Basra is Iraq’s third largest province population wise, and contains the majority of its oil wealth. For those reasons, SOL was offering the Supreme Council Najaf, Dhi Qar, and another province in return for the governorship of Basra. Maliki’s list didn’t get the top spot, but it was able to hold onto some power there. State of Law got its governor Khalaf Abdul-Samad elected as the head of the provincial council, after it made a deal with the other major Shiite parties, and some of the minor ones. This was despite the fact that the list split with a few members joining the Sadr-ISCI alliance, who claimed they had a quorum first to form the new government. In Qadisiyah, the first attempt to hold a session of the new provincial council was postponed due to disagreements between the winning lists. Maliki sent his chief of staff Abdul Halim al-Zuhairi there to hold talks to woo parties away from the Sadrists and Supreme Council. Those two split in Dhi Qar, with a few members of the Liberal bloc joining with State of Law. That opened the way for SOL to gain the head of the council there. In Najaf, State of Law got Governor Adnan al-Zurfi of the Najaf First list was re-elected over the objections of ISCI and the Sadrists. Finally, in Diyala, the united Shiite list Diyala’s National Coalition aligned with the Kurdish Brotherhood and Coexistence List to form the new ruling coalition. At the same time, SOL is trying to split the Sadrists from the Supreme Council. Despite these successful and on going negotiations Maliki has faced a major setback in the 2013 voting. He was hoping to come out of the election with majorities across the south and Baghdad. Now he is struggling to just get a fraction of those. That shows that he is not in as strong a position as he thought he was, and that the other Shiite lists are taking advantage of that.

Every national government put together since 2005 has been a national unity one that includes every winning list. While being inclusive, this has also made the government large and unwieldy with both opponents and supporters having to share power. That has frustrated Premier Maliki who would like to have freer reign to rule the country. His list has suffered from being the incumbents this year, not winning as many seats in the new councils as it did in 2009. Not only that, but his heavy handed rule, and the desire of the other Shiite parties to surpass him has led the prime minister to fight for control more than he thought he would have to. That has secured him a few provinces, and he is working on others, but more importantly it shows that he will continue to have to share power. For a developing democracy like Iraq, and given complaints about Maliki’s autocratic tendencies, that might not be the worst thing.

SOURCES

Abdullah Ali, “Citizen coalition and the Liberals on the mechanism of choosing the head of the provincial council in Najaf,” 6/13/13

- “Defection of two members of the state of law and formally joining coalition of Basra First,” Buratha News, 6/9/13

- “Urgent .. the announcement of a new alliance in Najaf includes citizens coalition and Liberals to form local government,” 6/8/13

AIN, “Babel First Alliance announces completing quorum to form Babel local government,” 6/11/13

- “Babel First Political Alliance formed,” 6/10/13

- “Bazoni: Basra governor post granted for Citizen Alliance,” 6/8/13

- “Breaking News….Heated debate among Diwaniya PC members for postponing Saturday session,” 6/15/13

- “Citizen bloc, Ahrar bloc to object nominating Zurfi as Najaf Governor,” 6/13/13

- “Diwaniyah nominates Awadi as its Governor,” 6/9/13

- “Diyala National alliance agrees with KA to form local government of Diyala,” 6/13/13

- “Diyala PC fails in nominating new Governor, PC Chairman,” 6/13/13

- “Member of Diyala New Coalition joins citizen Coalition,” 6/8/13

- “Nasiri nominated as Thi-Qar Governor, Sahlani as its Chairman,” 6/16/13

- “SLC nominates Mosawi to replace Zurfi as Najaf Governor,” 6/9/13

- “Strategic agreement between Citizen Coalition and SLC to form Diwaniya local government,” 5/8/13

- “Urgent…Citizen, Ahrar Coalitions to form “Dhi-Qar Unified Alliance,”” 6/8/13

Alsumaria, “Raad Hamza capacity as Chairman of the Board of Babylon and honest meaning conservative law,” 6/15/13

Buratha News, “Basra coalition chaired the first meeting of the new provincial council next week, and state of law divided against itself in the naming of posts,” 6/7/13

- “Diyala National Alliance announces alliance with Kurdistan and the formation of local government in Diyala through next 72 hours,” 6/13/13

- “Liberal block separates the office manager in Dhi Qar and members of the Provincial Council,” 6/16/13

Al-Mada, “Basra first pulls the rug out from under Maliki’s coalition and achieve the formation of the provincial council majority,” 6/10/13

- “Basra First: We give Maliki a few days to fix errors Abdul Samad,” 6/12/13

- “Blocks Hakim and al-Sadr and the Dawa Party organize indoors ally in Najaf to lead the new government,” 6/8/13

- “Maliki wraps Sadr and Hakim alliance in Dhi Qar, Najaf .. and gets 5 committees of the Government of Wasit,” 6/15/13

- “Maliki’s bloc announces the formation of a coalition (the sons of Dhi Qar) to win the leadership of the provincial council and exclude the Liberals the Citizen’s Alliance,” 6/13/13

- “State of Law approaching loss of the Governments of Basra and Baghdad,” 5/1/13

- “State of Law tempt the Supreme Council granting 3 provinces for the sake of retaining management of Basra,” 5/23/13

-“Tripartite agreement in Babylon, state of law grants the position of governor and deputy head of the provincial council and gives the position of President of the Council to bring together competencies,” 6/9/13

National Iraqi News Agency, “”Basra is First coalition” gets the governor’s position; Badr bloc is seeking the presidency of the Council,” 6/9/13

- “BREAKING NEWS Majid Nasrawi elected Governor of Basra,” 6/12/13

- “Citizen bloc chooses its candidates for the post of governor of Babil,” 6/12/13

Al Rafidayn, “Liberals and the Citizen’s Alliance and Fadhila agree on the formation of local governments in 7 provinces,” 5/12/13

Al Rayy, “Diwaniya, a coalition of seven ten members to form a provincial council,” 6/9/13

- “Liberals decide to separate three of its members, including members of the Council of the province of Dhi Qar,” 6/15/13

- “Rename the governor of Najaf, Adnan al governor of the new cycle,” 6/13/13

- “Talks are continuing between state of law and the citizen’s alliance in Diwaniya to form a government,” 6/14/13

Sadah, Ali Abel, “Iraqi Shiite Political Leaders Opposing Al-Maliki,” Al-Monitor, 5/13/13

Shafaq News, “Hakim’s coalition gains governor position in three provinces,” 5/18/13

- “Najaf Council fails to convene its first session,” 6/9/13

Sotaliraq, “The rule of law in Basra ally of other powers and the number one candidate in the Iraqi approaching them,” 5/2/13

Ur News Agency, “Iraq’s Maliki’s coalition bargaining: Diyala versus Baghdad!” 6/13/13

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Where Do Iraqis Get Their Information And News From?

In 2009 D3 Systems contracted a Turkish company to survey Iraqis on what were their main sources of information. The results showed that the vast majority of Iraqis watched television more than any other media source, but that the Internet was growing in importance. While the individual stations and papers people read today might be slightly different four years later, the general findings still likely hold true. The most important of which was that Iraqis were widely skeptical of what they heard, read, and saw from their media, both foreign and domestic.

In November 2009, the Turkish company KA Research Limited was contracted by D3 Systems to survey Iraqis about their media habits. The study included 2,200 people across all 18 of Iraq’s provinces with a +/- ratio of 2%. KA asked 132 questions total. The firm had been in Iraq for seven years, operated 28 offices across the nation, and had been doing interviews with Iraqis since 2003. The report broke the country up into three regions. The north consisted of Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya, and Tamim. The central area was made up of Ninewa, Salahaddin, Diyala, Baghdad, and Anbar, while the south was Karbala, Babil, Wasit, Qadisiyah, Najaf, Maysan, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, and Basra. 2009 was a perfect time to ask Iraqis questions as the civil war had just ended, and the public was able to return to their normal lives.

Television is by far the most popular form of media in Iraq

The first questions involved what types of media did people use the most. 100% of respondents watched TV. That was followed by 24% listening to the radio, 3% reading newspapers, and 3% using the Internet. Amongst television viewers 72% watched Iraqi satellite TV, 46% watched international Arabic satellite TV, 32% viewed local television using an antenna, 17% liked foreign satellite TV that wasn’t in Arabic, and 7% subscribed to cable TV. With radio listeners, 24% favored Iraqi radio stations compared to 17% foreign. Television was obviously the most popular form of media used with an average number of 16 million people using it each day. That compared to seven million who used the Internet or listened to the radio, with the newspapers in last place with five million. Iraqis also watched TV the longest more than anything else. When asked what type of media they spent 45 minutes with each day, television came in first at 58%, an average of 9.3 million people, Internet was second at 69%, 4.9 million, followed by the radio 10%, 700,000 people, and newspapers at 5%, 300,000 Iraqis. When broken down by region, TV was most popular in the north. They also listened to the radio more than used the Internet, but they surfed the web longer when online. In central and southern Iraq, after TV, people spent the most time on the Internet. All this showed the dominance of television over all other forms of media. Usage was changing however with the Internet becoming more and more popular. With the civil war over, access to the Internet probably increased as it was easier to install in people’s homes now that they did not have to worry about violence as much.

Most Popular Media Sources, Nov. 2009

	Overall	North	Central	South
Iraq TV	100%	100%	100%	100%
Iraq Satellite TV	72%	91%	63%	71%
International Satellite TV (Arabic)	46%	25%	40%	69%
Aerial TV	32%	73%	11%	32%
Subscription Cable TV	7%	0%	3%	17%
Foreign Satellite TV (not Arabic)	17%	11%	5%	37%
Iraq Newspaper	3%	7%	1%	3%
Iraq Radio	24%	39%	11%	34%
Foreign Radio	17%	13%	10%	29%
Internet	3%	5%	2%	4%
Blogs	1%	2%	0%	2%
Mobile Phone	1%	0%	1%	0%

Avg. number of Iraqis using each media source per day nationally, Nov. 09

TV 16 mil

Internet 7 mil

Radio 7 mil

Newspaper 5 mil

% of population that spent at least 45 min. with each media type nationally per day, Nov. 2009

TV 58%

Internet 69%

Radio 10%

Newspapers 5%

Avg. number of people using each media source per day in northern Iraq, Nov. 09

TV 4 mil

Radio 2 mil

Internet 1 mil

Newspaper 1 mil

% of population that spent at least 45 min. with each media type northern Iraq per day, Nov. 09

TV 65%

Internet 22%

Radio 7%

Newspaper 5%

Avg. number of people using each media source per day in central Iraq, Nov. 09

TV 7 mil

Internet 4 mil

Radio 2 mil

Newspaper 2 mil

% of population that spent at least 45 min. with each media type central Iraq per day, Nov. 09

TV 57%

Internet 18%

Radio 9%

Newspaper 0%

Avg. number of people using each media source per day in southern Iraq, Nov. 09

TV 6 mil

Radio 3 mil

Internet 2 mil

Newspaper 2 mil

% of population that spent at least 45 min. with each media type central Iraq per day, Nov. 09

TV 52%

Internet 27%

Radio 12%

Newspaper 11%

Depending upon which region people lived in they watched different television stations. When asked to name all the TV stations that they watched Al Sharqia was the most popular at 82%, followed by Al Arabiya 74%, and Al Sumaria 72%. In the north, Kurdish networks were obviously the most popular with Kurdistan TV at 94%,  and Gali Kurdistan and Zagros TV 93% each. In the central Iraq, the MBC network came in first 82% and third 68%, with Al Sharqiya in second at 81%. Finally, in the south Al Sharqiya was first, 95%, Al Arabiya was second, 91%, and Al Sumaria TV was third, 90%. When asked which of these sources did they trust the most, few thought much of any of them. Nationally, Al Sharqia was trusted the most, but that was only at 33%. In the north, stations fared a little better with Kurdistan TV at 50%, KNN TV at 41%, and KurdSAT at 37%, but all the rest were below 25%. Al Sharqia for example, was at only 11%. In the north, it did better at 42%, but the rest were below 25%, while in the south Al Iraqiya fared the best at 44%. Today, the individual stations that were watched might have changed, but an important point was revealed. The reason why people watched so many different stations might be because they didn’t trust them, and therefore sought as many different sources of information as possible. If true, that would be a very good trait of the country, and was perhaps the result of coming out of a dictatorship where everything was controlled by the state. That might have created a healthy skepticism of all media.

Top 10 television stations that Iraqis watched nationally, Nov. 09

Al Sharqia 82%

Al Arabiya 74%

Al Sumaria 72%

Al Hurra 71%

MBC 1 71%

Al Iraqiya 67%

Al Baghdadia 66%

MBC 2 58%

MBC Action 55%

Abu Dhabi TV 55%

Top 10 television stations that Iraqis watched in northern Iraq, Nov. 09

Kurdistan TV 94%

Gali Kurdistan 93%

Zagros TV 93%

KurdSAT 93%

Newroz TV 89%

Vin TV 81%

Al Jazeera 78%

MBC 1 78%

Al Hurra 73%

MBC 2 73%

Top 10 television stations that Iraqis watched in central Iraq, Nov. 09

MBC 1 82%

Al Sharqiya TV 81%

MBC 2 68%

Al Arabiya 66%

Melody TV 65%

MBC Action 63%

Al Sumaria TV 61%

Al Baghdadia 60%

Al Hurra 58%

MBC 4 58%

Top 10 television stations that Iraqis watched in southern Iraq, Nov. 09

Al Sharqiya TV 95%

Al Arabiya 91%

Al Sumaria TV 90%

Al Hurra 88%

Al Iraqiya 88%

Al Baghdadia 85%

Al Forat 68%

MBC 1 52%

Al Anwar TV 46%

Abu Dhabi TV 44%

Top 10 most trusted television news channels nationally in Iraq, Nov. 09

Al Sharqia 33%

Al Iraqiya 21%

Al Hurra 20%

Al Arabia 19%

Al Baghdadia 19%

Kurdistan TV 14%

Al Sumaria 13%

Al Jazeera 11%

KurdSAT 11%

BBC Arabic 10%

Top 10 most trusted television news channels in northern Iraq, Nov. 09

Kurdistan TV 50%

KNN TV 41%

KurdSAT 37%

Khak TV 23%

Zagros TV 22%

Gali Kurdistan 19%

Al Jazeera 13%

Al Sharqia 11%

Al Arabia 8%

Al Baghdadia 5%

Top 10 most trusted television news channels in central Iraq, Nov. 09

Al Sharqia 42%

Al Baghdadia 21%

Al Arabia 20%

Al Hurra 16%

Al Iraqia 15%

Al Jazeera 15%

BBC Arabic 13%

Al Sumaria TV 12%

Babiliyah TV 12%

Salah Al-Din TV 11%

Top 10 most trusted television news channels in southern Iraq, Nov. 09

Al Iraqia 44%

Al Hura 38%

Al Sharqia 37%

Al Baghdadia 27%

Al Arabia 26%

Al Sumaria TV 23%

Al Forat 16%

BBC Arabic 11%

Al Fayhaa TV 6%

Al Jazeera 4%

The next major topic was radio. Nationally, Baghdad Radio, 63%, and Radio Nawa, 61%, were tops. REgionally, Radio Nawa, 99%, was the most popular in the north, Baghdad Radio, 78%, was number one in the center, and in the south, 89%. Just like television, few radio stations received favorable marks about their news coverage. Nationally for example, Radio Sawa was ranked the best, but at only 23% on how it covered major events. Unlike TV however, foreign stations like the BBC fared fairly well in their reporting, but was still at a very low percentage, 13%.

Top 10 radio stations nationally in Iraq, Nov. 09

Baghdad Radio 63%

Radio Nawa 61%

Radio Sawa 54%

BBC London Arabic 49%

Monte Carlo Doualiya 48%

Dijla Radio 42%

Radio Sumer FM 38%

Radio Iraq al-Hurr 37%

Al Iraqiya Radio 34%

Radio Al Huriya 32%

Top 10 radio stations northern Iraq, Nov. 09

Radio Nawa 99%

Kurdistan Voice Radio 96%

Gali Kurdistan Voice Radio 93%

Yekgirtu Radio 68%

Ashti Radio 62%

BBC London Arabic 44%

Khak Radio 42%

Voice of America 42%

Zagros Radio 41%

Radio Sawa 40%

Top 10 radio stations central Iraq, Nov. 09

Baghdad Radio 78%

Radio Sawa 67%

BBC London Arabic 61%

Radio Nawa 59%

Monte Carlo Doualiya 57%

Dijla Radio 54%

Radio Sumer FM 50%

Al Iraqiya Radio 43%

Radio Iraq al-Hurr 42%

Al Nas 38%

Top 10 radio stations southern Iraq, Nov. 09

Baghdad Radio 89%

Dijla Radio 58%

Monte Carlo Doualiya 54%

Radio al-Hurriya 51%

Radio Sawa 50%

Radio Sumer Fm 46%

Radio Iraq al Hurr 43%

Al Mirbad 38%

BBC London Arabic 37%

Which radio stations provided the best news coverage nationally, Nov. 09

Radio Sawa 23%

Radio Nawa 16%

BBC London 13%

Which radio stations provided the best news coverage northern Iraq, Nov. 09

Others 59%

Radio Nawa 19%

Radio Zagros 12%

Radio Sawa 8%

Which radio stations provided the best news coverage central Iraq, Nov. 09

Others 38%

Radio Sawa 18%

BBC London 13%

Radio Nawa 12%

Baghdad Radio 11%

Which radio stations provided the best news coverage southern Iraq, Nov. 09

Radio Sawa 41%

BBC London 22%

Radio Nawa 18%

By 2009, the Internet was increasingly challenging traditional media. Usage was up, and more importantly, 68% said that they preferred using the web rather than newspapers. Iraqis also used search engines like Yahoo, 88%, and Google, 67%, rather than going to individual news sites such as Al Jazeera, 34%, or Al Arabiya 33%. That showed that newspapers were a dying form of information in Iraq just as they are in the industrial world. It was another indicator that Iraqis had trust issues with their own domestic media as well, which was why they surfed the net over using domestic news sites.

Top 10 most trusted websites for news in Iraq, Nov. 09

Yahoo 88%

Google 67%

Al Jazeera 34%

Al Arabiya 33%

BBC Arabic 32%

Aswat al Iraq 24%

Maktoob 23%

PUK Media 21%

Iraq 4 All 20%

Elaph 20%

Newspapers were barely read anymore in the country by 2009. Only 3% said they read one each day. Weekly that went up to 25%, but more importantly, 59% of respondents said they never looked at a paper. Of those that still had a readership, Al Sabah was number one at 49%, followed by Azzaman, 42%, and Lvin Magazine from Kurdistan at 35%. Again, television, and even the Internet had far exceeded the use of newspapers in the country by 2009. Going on line was hopefully saving some of these papers as it opened a new avenue to maintain readership since so many were moving to the web.

How often did Iraqis read newspapers, Nov. 09

Daily or almost every day 3%

Several times/once a week 25%

Less than once a week 14%

Never 59%

Top 10 newspapers nationally, Nov. 09

Al Sabah 49%

Azzaman 42%

Lvin Magazine 35%

Hawlati 34%

Al Sabah 33%

Awene 32%

Others 30%

Al Dustour 27%

Al Hayat 19%

Al Shariq Al Awsat 19%

Overall, 75% of Iraqis included in the survey said it was important to be informed about the news. A basic necessity of a democratic society is a knowledgeable public. The fact that people were looking at a multitude of sources, and had a strong skepticism of almost all of them was important for the development of a civil society that can support elections and voting. It might also be a result of having once been under Saddam Hussein that Iraqis are so interested in the news. These are both positive findings. Unfortunately, other factors such as sectarianism and patronage also play a large role in shaping how all this news is digested. While not included in the survey, it was likely just as important for which stations or newspapers were viewed.

SOURCE

D3 Systems, “Iraq Media Study National Audience Analysis,” 4/21/10

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Iraq Prime Minister Maliki’s State Of Law Being Shut Out Of New Provincial Governments

Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was hoping that the 2013 provincial elections would pave the way towards him forming a majority government after next year’s parliamentary balloting. Instead, his State of Law list not only lost seats, but its plan to maintain control of southern Iraq and Baghdad is falling apart. At first, State of Law had an agreement with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) to create ruling coalitions in seven of the twelve provinces that voted in April, but that alliance quickly fell apart. Now ISCI has found a new partner with the Sadrists and they are looking to control seven governorates, shutting out State of Law in the process. This is a dramatic turn of events, and a huge disappointment for the premier who was looking to solidify his hold upon the country.

Hakim (left) and Sadr (right) have formed ruling coalitions in seven provinces including Baghdad that exclude Maliki's State of Law list following the April 2013 provincial elections (Al-Mada)

State of Law was the biggest winner in the 2013 balloting, but its plans to hold onto power have been spoiled. Maliki’s list won in Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, Muthanna, Qadisiyah, and Wasit. Immediately afterward it announced that it had carried out talks with the Supreme Council, and together they would be forming majority governments in those seven governorates. The two could not agree however, and ISCI quickly shifted to a new alliance with the Sadrists, who had been courting them as well since early May. Since then they have gone on to form majority coalitions in the seven provinces that Maliki’s list won. In Baghdad, the two Shiite parties made a deal with Speaker Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun, with the Sadrists getting the governorship, Mutahidun the head of the council, and ISCI receiving the first deputy council head. In Basra, State of Law fractured with two members defecting over disputes over who would be governor, and joined the ISCI-Sadrist Basra First Coalition. The Badr Organization also jumped ship from Maliki’s list, and was in negotiations with Basra First as well. Ironically, State of Law was talking about forming majority governments after the 2013 balloting. The Supreme Council seemed to want to be more inclusive, and have more lists join in the new local councils. The result was that ISCI went with the Sadrists instead, and created coalitions that excluded Maliki’s party. There was also a bit of political payback involved, because in 2009, the premier’s list shut out ISCI from most of the new governing councils after it had ruled them since 2005.

Prime Minister Maliki’s political plans have faced a major setback after this year’s election. The premier was hoping that not only would he maintain his position in the southern and central provinces, but gain more seats, so that he would not have to rule with so many other parties. This was part of his larger strategy to create a majority national government, which would give him greater leeway passing laws and ruling the country. Now all that is threatened after his erstwhile allies the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sadrists have joined together, and taken over the south and Baghdad at Maliki’s expense. Both have worked with State of Law in the past, but would like to supersede it as the dominant Shiite party in Iraq. They are not there yet, but they have learned that Maliki has chinks in his armor that they can take advantage of.

SOURCES

Abdullah, Ali, “Defection of two members of the state of law and formally joining coalition of Basra First,” Buratha News, 6/9/13

- “Urgent .. the announcement of a new alliance in Najaf includes citizens coalition and Liberals to form local government,” 6/8/13

Ahmed, Leila, “Race continues to form alliance of local government in Baghdad,” Radio Free Iraq, 6/9/13

AIN, “Ahrar bloc granted post of Baghdad Governor,” 6/8/13

- “Ahrar-Citizen coalitions’ new alliance to ensure success of new PCs, says Sadrist MP,” 6/8/13

- “Babel First Political Alliance formed,” 6/10/13

- “Bazoni: Basra governor post granted for Citizen Alliance,” 6/8/13

- “Diwaniyah nominates Awadi as its Governor,” 6/9/13

- “Future Wasit Alliance announced Saturday,” 6/8/13

- “New political alliance to form local government in Wasit,” 6/3/13

- “SLC nominates Mosawi to replace Zurfi as Najaf Governor,” 6/9/13

- “SLC welcomes forming Baghdad new PC according to political majority,” 6/8/13

- “Strategic agreement between Citizen Coalition and SLC to form Diwaniya local government,” 5/8/13

- “Urgent…Citizen, Ahrar Coalitions to form “Dhi-Qar Unified Alliance,”” 6/8/13

- “Urgent….SLC, Citizen Coalition break up their alliance regarding Provincial Governments,” 6/6/13

Buratha News, “Basra coalition chaired the first meeting of the new provincial council next week, and state of law divided against itself in the naming of posts,” 6/7/13

- “Diwaniya: the position of the leader of a coalition of conservative fans Diwaniyah and the presidency of the Council for Citizens Coalition,” 6/9/13

Al-Mada, “Basra first pulls the rug out from under Maliki’s coalition and achieve the formation of the provincial council majority,” 6/10/13

- “Maysan, Salahuddin keep on Lazem .. Samad assisted tribes to get a second term,” 6/8/13

- “State of Law approaching loss of the Governments of Basra and Baghdad,” 5/1/13

- “State of Law tempt the Supreme Council granting 3 provinces for the sake of retaining management of Basra,” 5/23/13

- “Tripartite agreement in Babylon, state of law grants the position of governor and deputy head of the provincial council and gives the position of President of the Council to bring together competencies,” 6/9/13

National Iraqi News Agency, “”Basra is First coalition” gets the governor’s position; Badr bloc is seeking the presidency of the Council,” 6/9/13

- “Sadr and Hakim discuss, in Najaf, the strategic partnership,” 5/8/13

- “Seven provinces shared between Ahrar and Citizen bloc to form the local government there,” 6/11/13

Radio Nawa, “Liberals and citizens agree on the formation of a coalition of local governments shall be managed,” 6/7/13

Al Rafidayn, “Liberals and the Citizen’s Alliance and Fadhila agree on the formation of local governments in 7 provinces,” 5/12/13

- “State of Law: “We will form alliance in 9 local governments with the citizens’ block,” 5/8/13

Shafaq News, “Hakim’s coalition gains governor position in three provinces,” 5/18/13

- “Najaf Council fails to convene its first session,” 6/9/13

Sotaliraq, “The rule of law in Basra ally of other powers and the number one candidate in the Iraqi approaching them,” 5/2/13

VOICE OF AMERICA VIDEO: Iraq A Young Soldier's Story

VOICE OF AMERICA VIDEO: Iraq Living With Violence In Mosul

Iraq’s Oil Exports Remain Flat-Lined For Last Fourteen Months

April 2013 saw Iraq return to its highest export levels in the last 30 years. Unfortunately, the industry still suffers from a number of major problems, which prevent it from being able to maintain those figures, and reach its lofty goals. Not only that, but the price for Iraqi crude saw a dip for that month, while problems with Kurdistan and insurgents also came up. Those are all reasons why Iraq’s petroleum business has been at a plateau for the last fourteen months. That doesn’t mean production is not growing, and things won’t change, but it will just take a lot longer than the Oil Ministry projects.

(Reuters)

Iraq’s oil exports recovered in April after a four-month decline. In that month, Iraq exported an average of 2.62 million barrels a day. That was up from 2.41 million barrels in March. Total exports in April were 78.7 million compared to 77.64 million the previous month. The increase was due to the southern pipeline through Basra, which went from 2.1 million in exports March to 2.31 million in April. That was one of the highest amounts since the 2003 invasion. That was planned as the Oil Ministry scheduled 13 more cargoes in April, 48 total, then in March. The opposite occurred in the north where the Kirkuk line decreased from 316,100 in March to 306,600 in April. The flow through that pipeline has been down since reaching a high of 451,600 in October 2012, because the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) stopped its official exports over a dispute over payments with Baghdad. Instead, the Kurds are now trucking petroleum to Turkey. In April that reached almost 60,000 barrels a day. Not only that, but the first shipment of Kurdish oil was sold on the international market that month. The central government considers those exports illegal, and has constantly threatened legal action to stop them, but nothing has happened. April seemed like an encouraging month for the Oil Ministry. Exports were back to what they were at the end of 2012, which marked the highest levels in 30-years. Unfortunately, that was still below the 2.9 million barrel mark set for the year. Few analysts believe that amount is attainable this year, because Iraq faces so many problems. One is that exports continue to fluctuate up and down. In May for example, they were back down to 2.484 million. The industry is still expanding, but very slowly. For the year, the country is averaging 2.47 million barrels in foreign sales, just slightly more than the 2.41 million it did in 2012.

Iraq Oil Exports And Profits 2011-2013

Month	Avg. Exports (Mil/ Bar/ Day)	Avg. Price Per Barrel	Revenue (Bill)
Jan. 11	2.16	$90.78	$6.082
Feb.	2.20	$98.44	$6.064
Mar.	2.15	$107.13	$7.167
Apr.	2.14	$114.26	$7.342
May	2.22	$108	$7.45
Jun.	2.27	$105.17	$7.173
Jul.	2.16	$108.79	$7.311
Aug.	2.18	$104.91	$7.124
Sep.	2.10	$104.89	$6.619
Oct.	2.08	$104.04	$6.742
Nov.	2.13	$106.59	$6.833
Dec.	2.14	$106.18	$7.061
2011 Avg.	2.16	$105.00	$6.913
Jan. 12	2.10	$109.08	$7.123
Feb.	2.01	$112.92	$6.595
Mar.	2.31	$117.99	$8.472
Apr.	2.50	$116.79	$8.795
May	2.45	$103.03	$7.831
Jun.	2.40	$90.09	$6.487
Jul.	2.51	$97.14	$7.577
Aug.	2.56	$106.22	$8.445
Sep.	2.59	$107.59	$8.371
Oct.	2.62	$105.51	$8.578
Nov.	2.62	$104.32	$8.200
Dec.	2.34	$103.72	$7.551
2012 Avg.	2.41	$106.20	$7.835
Jan. 13	2.35	$104.92	$7.672
Feb.	2.53	$107.66	$7.644
Mar.	2.41	$103.76	$7.772
Apr.	2.62	$98.70	$7.764
2013 Avg.	2.47	$103.74	$7.713

Oil Exports Through Basra 2012-2013
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day

February 1.639 mil/bar/day

March 1.917 mil/bar/day

April 2.115 mil/bar/day

May 2.086 mil/bar/day

June 2.085 mil/bar/day

July 2.216 mil/bar/day

August 2.252 mil/bar/day

September 2.178 mil/bar/day

October 2.172 mil/bar/day

November 2.122 mil/bar/day

December 2.022 mil/bar/day

January 2013 2.093 mil/bar/day

February 2.196 mil/bar/day

March 2.1 mil/bar/day

April 2.31 mil/bar/day

Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012-2013

January 2012 393,500 bar/day

February 375,800 bar/day

March 400,000 bar/day

April 393,300 bar/day

May 364,500 bar/day

June 316,600 bar/day

July 300,000 bar/day

August 312,900 bar/day

September 420,000 bar/day

October 451,600 bar/day

November 426,600 bar/day

December 325,800 bar/day

January 2013 264,500 bar/day

February 339,200 bar/day

March 316,100 bar/day

April 306,600 bar/day

A more troubling issue was the fact that prices for Iraqi crude dropped in April. One barrel sold for an average of $98.70, compared to $103.76 the previous month. That meant Iraq earned $7.764 million for April, down from $7.772 million in March despite the increase in exports. This was the first time prices dropped below $100 per barrel since July 2012. Overall, it was the third time that occurred in the last 26 months. For the year, prices for Iraqi petroleum are down from 2012, and so is the monthly revenue. If that trend continues that could be problematic for Iraq, which relies upon oil for 90% of its revenue.

There are many other problems that the oil industry faces, one of which is that it remains a target. On April 25 for instance, the northern pipeline was bombed in the Shirqat area of Salahaddin province. Insurgents have attacked the line nearly every month this year. Before that the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey was blowing it up regularly. The Kirkuk line is already operating at below capacity. It also suffers from a lack of maintenance, which often leads to leaks, and other issues. The constant bombings just adds to those already existing difficulties.

More importantly, Iraq suffers from major structural and environmental impediments to the growth of its energy sector. Bad weather in the south constantly stops tankers from docking at its ports. There is a lack of pumping and pipeline capacity, and not enough storage facilities. Government red tape holds up the importation of materials and workers, and there are not enough trained Iraqis. All this means that Iraq’s oil sector cannot grow as fast as the government hopes. The nation has such huge potential, but much of it is going untapped due to these barriers. Those are the major reasons why Iraq continuously misses the goals it sets for itself.

For now, Iraq’s oil industry is holding steady. April’s exports saw a return to the highs of 2012, but that proved unsustainable. A bigger issue was that prices and profits have dropped since last year. Baghdad is working on its bottlenecks slowly but surely. If the value of Iraqi crude plummets however, any increases in production will not only be offset by lower revenue, but could contribute to oversupplying world markets and driving down prices more. Iraq’s planning is notoriously poor, and all the government is currently focusing upon is pumping as much petroleum as possible as quickly as it can. That’s based upon the theory that the demand for energy will continuously increase. That’s not so true today. While developing countries like China are seeing a large increase in the amount of oil that it uses, the West is actually producing more petroleum of is own, and cutting back on demand. Right now this has not become an issue, but Iraq will eventually have to deal with the consequences of its policies.

SOURCES

Ajrash, Kadhim and Razzouk, Nayla, “Iraq Revises Its Oil Reserves to 150 Billion Barrels,” Bloomberg, 4/10/13

Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraqi oil pumping to Turkey stopped by explosion,” 4/25/13

Bloomberg, “Iraq to Increase Basra Oil Shipments in April,” Iraq Business News, 4/2/13

Donati, Jessica and Mackey, Peg, “Iraqi Kurdistan sells first crude, defies Baghdad,” Reuters, 4/5/13

Al Jazeera, “Gunmen attack Iraq gas field,” 4/2/13

Mohammed, Aref, “Protests heat up near Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield,” Reuters, 4/16/13

Press TV, “Iraq threatens to take legal actions against Turkey over KRG oil deals,” 4/5/13

Al-Rafidayn, “Iraqi Kurdistan has doubled its oil exports and ignore Baghdad,” 4/24/13

Republic of Iraq Ministry of Oil, “The Iraqi Ministry of Oil Declares its Export for April 2013,” 5/23/13

Reuters, “Bottlenecks put brakes on Iraq’s oil export growth,” 4/12/13

- “Iraq cements position as second-biggest Opec oil exporter,” 4/30/13

- “Iraq May oil exports fall to 2.484 m bpd,” 6/4/13