How Much Power Will Incoming Premier Allawi Have?

(Reuters)

There were two reports about the possible scope and limitations of Mohammed Allawi when he forms a new Iraqi government. Middle East Eye had a story that Allawi’s nomination was agreed upon in a meeting in Iran between Moqtada al-Sadr and Badr Organization and Fatah Alliance head Hadi Amiri amongst others. It claimed that Allawi would only be given a limited mandate to hold elections, remove foreign military forces from the country and integrate the Hashd further into the government. One politician said that Allawi would be in a weaker position than outgoing premier Abdul Mahdi because he wouldn’t be able to deal with any major issues like corruption. That was contradicted by another piece in Al Masalah which talked with a parliamentarian (MP) who attended a meeting with Allawi and other MPs. The lawmaker claimed Allawi laid out a plan to make a clean sweep of the government administration by replacing all the deputy ministers, general managers, special grades, and advisers in the cabinet and prime minister’s office and tracking the performance of the minister he picked.

This Day In Iraqi History - Feb 17

1917 British crossed Shumran bend outflanking Ottoman forces in campaign to recapture Kut

1981 UN Rep Palme went to Iran and Iraq for 3^rd time to try to negotiate ceasefire

1986 Iran started attack to gain more ground in Fao Peninsula

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Tom Cooper on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review of Iran-Iraq War Volume 2: Iran Strikes back, June 1982-December 1986)

1995 Temporary ceasefire made between PUK and KDP during civil war

(Musings On Iraq book review of The Kurds, A Modern History)

1998 Clinton told Pentagon US had to stop Iraq from getting WMD and nuclear weapons and Baghdad

had to allow unfetted UN inspections

(Musings On Iraq book review The United States And Iraq Since 1990: A Brief History with Documents)

2003 U2 spy planes began flying over Iraq for UN weapons inspectors

2003 Turkish parliament delayed vote to allow deployment of US troops for Iraq invasion due to domestic

opposition

2003 IAEA found that Iraq-Niger uranium docs were fakes

(Musings On Iraq article on Iraq-Niger uranium story)

(Musings On Iraq Review Hubris, The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, And The Selling Of The Iraq War)

2007 3 car bombs in Baghdad killed 74 and wounded over 100

(Musings On Iraq book review Voices From Iraq, A People’s History, 2003-2009)

2007 VP Hashemi called for Mahdi Army to be placed on terrorist list by US

2007 Report Mahdi Army staying off Baghdad streets as Surge started

2008 2 car bombs at Awakening meeting in Anbar killed more than 20

2008 Sadr announced end of truce with SIIC made in Oct 07 Didn’t stop fighting between two parties

2008 Report 2007 avg 200 attacks per day against ISF Start of 2008 only avg of 82 per day

2008 Report Almost half of displaced said they wouldn’t return to old neighborhoods because

demographics changed in civil war Baghdad’s Adil neighborhood 70% of violence caused by conflicts between returnees and squatters occupying their homes ISF helping Shiites keep homes by arresting Sunnis and not allowing families back

2008 US accused Iran of increased arms shipments to militias in Iraq

(Musings On Iraq interview with Galen Wright of Arkenstone blog on Iranian arms shipments to Iraqi militias) 

2011 Protests in Sulaymaniya began demanding reform in KRG Attacked KDP HQ Fired upon by guards

killing 2

(Musings On Iraq interview with journalist Wladimir Van Wilgenburg on 2011 KRG protests)

2012 Mahoum Sarkhi offices set on fire Blamed on followers of Ayatollah Sistani

View the Iraq History Timelines 

This Day In Iraqi History - Feb 16

1917 British defeated Ottoman forces at Dahra Bend

1922 Gertrude Bell complained to her father that King Faisal had surrounded himself with nationalists that

demanded Iraq’s complete independence from England

(Musings On Iraq book review of Gertrude Bell And Iraq)

(Musings On Iraq book review Gertrude Bell, Explorer of the Middle East)

1944 Parliamentary Party formed mostly of large land holding sheikhs Supported whatever govt Regent

backed

1979 Saddam said unifying Iraq and Syria was part of the Arab revolution

1979 Saddam said Iraq would respect choice of the Iranian people with their revolution

1984 Iran cut Basra-Baghdad highway between Maysan and Wasit

1986 Iraqi intelligence fell for Iranian deception and claimed attack upon Fao in Basra not main Iranian

attack Meant Iraq didn’t send reinforcements

1986 Iraq made another attempt to retake Fao Peninsula in Basra Only advanced 2 km Iraqis lost 7,000

casualties and 1,500 prisoners taken Iranians lost 8,000 casualties in Op Wa al-Fajr 8 that took Fao Peninsula

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Tom Cooper on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review of Iran-Iraq War Volume 2: Iran Strikes back, June 1982-December 1986)

1989 Iraq formed Arab Cooperation Council with Egypt Jordan Yemen to counter Gulf Cooperation

Council

1991 US troops destroyed Iraqi radar facility while Apache helicopters conducted raid in depth behind

Iraqi lines in Iraq

1992 Defense Secretary Cheney said that if US had overthrown Saddam would have to decide what kind

of govt to establish Would have been hard to capture Saddam Would have to decide how many casualties willing to take How many troops would have to stay in Iraq to keep govt going

2001 Bush told speechwriter David Frum that he was going to get rid of Saddam  

2001 UK Attorney Gen Lord Williams approved air attacks out of no fly zones in Iraq for self defense

2001 US and UK planes bombed 20 radar and command and control centers in Iraq outside of No Fly Zone

Claimed Iraq had upgraded its air defenses Then said bombed Iraq to stop it from upgrading its defenses

2002 Bush signed secret NSC directive calling for covert action against Iraq by CIA Had budget of $189

mil for 2 years Plan included supporting Iraqi opposition Sabotage missions inside Iraq Working with other countries Information campaign vs Iraq attacking Iraqi revenue sources and disrupting its smuggling operations

(Musings On Iraq book review Wanting War: Why the Bush Administration Invaded Iraq)

(Musings On Iraq book review Leap of Faith, Hubris Negligence, and America’s Greatest Foreign Policy

Tragedy)

(Musings On Iraq Review Hubris, The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, And The Selling Of The Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Bush Administrations and Saddam Hussein, Deciding on Conflict)

2003 Rice claimed Iraq was deceiving UN weapons inspectors

(Musings On Iraq article on UN weapons inspections)

2004 Report Iraqi and US sources said Iraqi forces would not be able to provide security after sovereignty

transferred to Iraq

2004 CIA said it still believed Iraqi defector CURVEBALL was credible source for intel that Iraq had

mobile WMD labs Turned out to be false source

(Musings On Iraq How Iraqi Defector CURVEBALL Became Basis For US Claim That Iraq Had WMD)

(Musings On Iraq Look Who The LA Times Dug Up – CURVEBALL)

(Musings On Iraq Story of CURVEBALL And Iraq’s Mobile Biological Weapons Labs)

2006 Sec State Rice told Senate oil production and electricity below postwar levels in Iraq Said initial

problems with rebuilding Iraqi security forces fixed and as Iraqi forces stood up US forces would do less

2006 Sec Def Rumsfeld told House US was not in Iraq to do nation building that was up to Iraqis to do

2008 PM Maliki said Al Qaeda in Iraq had mostly been driven from Baghdad

2010 ISI set off 4 suicide car bombs targeting hotels in Baghdad where foreign press stayed

2011 PM Maliki visited Kuwait after Kuwait premier visited Iraq in 1^st high level meet between 2 countries

since 1990

2016 Allawi said no reason to remove cabinet until Abadi presented a strategic plan

(Musings On Iraq interview with Reidar Visser on PM Abadi’s reform program) 

View the Iraq History Timelines 

This Day In Iraqi History - Feb 15

1923 UK Head of Board of Trade Sir Graeme told Iraq commission Iraq too costly and British

should withdraw

1936 Def Ministry complained that UK War Office ignored arms purchases and deliveries and that was

undermining Iraqi army

1949 2 Communist politburo members hanged by PM Said to put down protests

(Musings On Iraq book review Red Star Over Iraq, Iraqi Communism Before Saddam)

(Musings On Iraq Interview with Prof Johan Franzen on the history of the Iraqi Communist Party)

1964 Arif govt and Mustafa Barzani started talks to try to end KDP revolt

(Musings On Iraq book review of The Kurds, A Modern History)

(Musings On Iraq book review Kurds of Iraq, Tragedy and Hope)

1984 Iraq, Egypt, Argentina and Swiss companies signed contract to develop long range missile

1984 Iranian Op Al Fajr 5 began Largest operation to date in war Included 2/3 of Iran’s manpower 400,000

men in 15 division Attacked Wasit towards Kut Aim was to cut Baghdad-Basra road

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Tom Cooper on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)

1990 Voice of America commentary called for end of dictatorships after fall of Ceausescu in Romania

Named Iraq

1991 Pres Bush called on Iraqi military and people to overthrow Saddam twice

(Musings On Iraq article on how US encouraged 1991 uprising)

(Musings On Iraq interview with National Univ of Singapore’s Fanar Haddad on the impact of the 1991 uprising)

(Musings On Iraq book review The United States And Iraq Since 1990: A Brief History with Documents)

1991 US Task Force 1-41 first Coalition troops to cross into Iraq to carry out recon and combat missions

1991 US 1^st Cav Div launched probing attack into Iraq

1991 US Task Force 1-32 breached Iraqi defensive berm and entered Iraq in deception attack to convince

Iraq that invasion would come through Wadi Al-Batin

2001 US and UK planes bombed Iraq’s air defense system as part of no fly zone

2002 VP Cheney told Council on Foreign Relations action needed to be taken against Saddam for his

aggressive actions support of terror WMD threat

(Musings On Iraq book review Iraq’s Future The aftermath of regime change)

(Musings On Iraq book review Wanting War: Why the Bush Administration Invaded Iraq)

(Musings On Iraq book review Leap of Faith, Hubris Negligence, and America’s Greatest Foreign Policy

Tragedy)

(Musings On Iraq review Losing Iraq, Inside The Post War Reconstruction Fiasco by David Phillips)

2003 Protests in more than 600 cities around world against going to war with Iraq

2003 Bush told Sec Def Rumsfeld to slow troop deployments because getting ahead of diplomacy

2006 Study Iraqi insurgency dominated by few large groups Sunni identity became basis for groups

Had no program for future of Iraq Iraqi insurgents rejected politics Believed they could win

(Musings On Iraq book review Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency)

2007 Pres Talabani claimed Mahdi Army commanders had left Iraq for Iran because Sadr supported the

Surge and wanted Baghdad secured Sadr and militiamen had fled to avoid being arrested and killed by US

2008 Report leaked US doc said Maliki govt didn’t feel urgency to integrate Sahwa Said ministries

interested in taking on Sahwa didn’t have capacity to do so

2009 Iraq Election Comm said fraud took place in 14 of Iraq’s 18 provinces but only effected small

fraction of votes

(Musings On Iraq article on voter fraud in 2009 provincial election)

2010 PM Maliki reversed order to have all raids authorized by him Came after he protested US-Iraq raid on

Kataib Hezbollah

(Musings On Iraq Instrument Of Iran’s Power In Iraq And Syria Kataib Hezbollah)

View the Iraq History Timelines 

This Day In Iraqi History - Feb 14

1949 Communist Chairman Farhad hanged by PM Said to try to squash opposition protests

(Musings On Iraq book review Red Star Over Iraq, Iraqi Communism Before Saddam)

(Musings On Iraq Interview with Prof Johan Franzen on the history of the Iraqi Communist Party)

1958 Iraq and Jordan announced Arab Federation in response to Egypt and Syria’s United Arab Republic

Kuwait asked to join but said no

1983 Sec of State Shultz met with Iraq’s For Min Hammadi who asked for expanded trade deals

1984 Iran Op Kheibar began with diversionary attack northeast of Khorramshahr Iran southern front

1986 Iraq counterattacked to try to re-captured Fao Peninsula started

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Tom Cooper on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review of Iran-Iraq War Volume 2: Iran Strikes back, June 1982-December 1986)

1991 During funeral for member of Hakim family anti-Saddam slogans chanted in Najaf

1991 Iraq said it would withdraw from Kuwait if Israel withdrew from Palestine sanctions ended and

Iraq’s foreign debt forgiven

2002 National Sec Adv Rice called PM Blair For Pol Adv Manning saying US was only reviewing its Iraq

policy

2003 Chief Inspector Blix briefed Security Council on Iraq inspections Said found no evidence of WMD

Said 400 inspections at 300 sites Were all without notice and gained entry every time Said Iraqis cooperating Said soil samples showed no signs of WMD Iraq still had unaccounted for materials Found 2 banned missiles Blix refuted Sec State Powell’s claim that Iraqis were cleaning WMD sites before inspections

2003 IAEA head El Baradei said it had dismembered Iraq’s nuke program in 1998 and found no evidence

that it had been restarted yet Said Iraq had provided documents for why aluminum tubes it tried to buy had such specific specifications

(Musings On Iraq article on the aluminum tubes story)

(Musings On Iraq article UN Inspectors Were Right Iraq Was Not A Threat)

(Musings On Iraq article Iraq’s Rejection of UN Inspectors Led To Mistrust Over WMD and 2003 Invasion)

2003 Sec State Powell told Security Council Iraq not cooperating with inspections and use of force still an

option

2003 Saddam issued presidential directive banning companies from importing equipment for WMD

2003 Sec Def Rumsfeld gave speech that U.S. was opposed to nation building in Iraq

(Musings On Iraq article on Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction Hard Lessons Chapter 3 The Department of Defense Takes Charge)

(Musings On Iraq book review Leap of Faith, Hubris Negligence, and America’s Greatest Foreign Policy

Tragedy)

2003 Wash Post editorial supported war with Iraq

2003 NSC met over how to respond to a coup in Iraq Didn’t think it was likely but had to plan for it

2004 Fallujah police station attacked by insurgents dressed in ISF uniforms killing more than 20 officers

and released prisoners

2004 US intel report Al Qaeda captive al-Libi recanted story Iraq trained Al Qaeda in poisons and

explosives Libi’s story was used in US intel reports and Sec State Powell’s UN speech

2006 US military ordered investigation into Marines executing Iraqi civilians in Haditha

2007 1^st reports appeared that Sadr had left Iraq for Iran out of fear that Surge would target him

(Musings On Iraq A Divided Sadr Trend)

2007 Bush said that Iranian Rev Guards Quds Force was operating in Iraq aiding militias and needed to be         stopped

(Musings On Iraq article on Iran’s Iraq policy)

(Musings On Iraq interview with Naval Postgraduate School’s Ostovar on history of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard)

(Musings On Iraq book review Vanguard of the Imam, Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard)

2008 Jordan put visa restrictions on Iraqis to try to stop flow of refugees moving there

2008 Iraq justice system overwhelmed by prisoners captured during Surge More than half 26,000 prisoners

held hadn’t gone to trial and some waited for years Prisons overcrowded Police often ignored orders to release prisoners Many guards worked with militias and released them Iraq didn’t have enough judges to deal with cases Not supported by govt

2016 Hakim criticized PM Abadi’s call for ending quota system saying that PM got his job because

of quotas

(Musings On Iraq interview with Reidar Visser on PM Abadi’s reform program)

2018 Kuwait conference raised $30 bil in loans investment credits mostly for developing Iraq’s economy

as well as reconstruction

(Musings On Iraq article on Kuwait conference)

View the Iraq History Timelines 

Review The Next Attack, The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting It Right

Review Benjamin, Daniel and Simon, Steven, The Next Attack, The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting It Right, New York: Times Book, 2005

The Next Attack, The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting It Right was written by Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon. They argue that the Bush administration was mishandling the war on terror after the 9/11 attacks because it misunderstood the jihadist movement, didn’t create an effective and coordinated anti-terror strategy, and made the situation worse by invading Iraq in 2003. For a book that was mostly written in 2004 it was way ahead of its time. Many of the issues it brought up would become mainstays of books written about the Islamic State after it declared its caliphate in 2014.

This Day In Iraqi History - Feb 13

1959 Communists said they stood for Arab unity but not in a quick and simple manner Was

taking shot at pan-Arabists and Nasser who called for immediate unity

(Musings On Iraq book review Red Star Over Iraq, Iraqi Communism Before Saddam)

(Musings On Iraq Interview with Prof Johan Franzen on the history of the Iraqi Communist Party)

1967 Pres Arif speech declared Freedom Socialism and Unity belonged to no Party co-opting

Baathist slogans

1979 Iraq sent memo to new Iranian govt after revolution asking for friendly relations

1982 Saddam ordered new attack upon Bostan Khuzistan Still raining and failed again

1985 Saddam offered amnesty to Kurds that fought against govt Rejected by KDP and PUK

(Musings On Iraq book review of The Kurds, A Modern History)

(Musings On Iraq book review Kurds of Iraq, Tragedy and Hope)

1986 Iran in full control of Fao Peninsula Basra Lost 600 dead 2000 wounded Iraq 5000 dead and

wounded 1500 captured

1986 Report around 2,000 Iranian troops suffered mustard gas burns in Fao Peninsula from Iraqi

attacks

(Musings On Iraq article on the origins of Iraq’s WMD programs)

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Tom Cooper on Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review of Iran-Iraq War Volume 2: Iran Strikes back, June 1982-December 1986)

1991 Amiriya shelter in Baghdad bombed by U.S. during Gulf War 408 killed

1998 UN chief Annan said he had a personal initiative to end inspector crisis with Iraq Began consulting

with Security Council members to win approval

(Musings On Iraq article UN Inspectors Were Right Iraq Was Not A Threat)

(Musings On Iraq article Iraq’s Rejection of UN Inspectors Led To Mistrust Over WMD and 2003 Invasion)

1998 Saudis refused to allow its territory to be used by US for air strikes vs Iraq as tensions raised over

inspectors

1999 AP reported that Saddam offered bin Laden shelter after being kicked out of Afghanistan False story

2002 Bush at press conference said he had a number of options for dealing with Iraq

2002 Bush admin officials told several media outlets they had decided to move against Iraq

(Musings On Iraq book review Wanting War: Why the Bush Administration Invaded Iraq)

(Musings On Iraq book review Leap of Faith, Hubris Negligence, and America’s Greatest Foreign Policy

Tragedy)

(Musings On Iraq Review Hubris, The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, And The Selling Of The Iraq War)

(Musings On Iraq book review The Bush Administrations and Saddam Hussein, Deciding on Conflict)

(Musings On Iraq book review Plan of Attack: The Definitive Account Of The Decision To Invade Iraq)

2003 UN announced it had humanitarian plan for Iraq working with 6 regional countries and had $30.6

mil and would ask for another $88.8 mil

2003 CENTCOM Cmdr Gen Franks told Bush he had Iraqi mayors for each city to run things after

invasion He didn’t

(Musings On Iraq article on Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction Hard Lessons Chapter 3 The Department of Defense Takes Charge)

(Musings On Iraq book review Leap of Faith, Hubris Negligence, and America’s Greatest Foreign Policy

Tragedy)

2003 IAEA interviewed Iraq’s ex-amb to Vatican Zahawie second time over Iraq-Niger uranium deal

Denied story

(Musings On Iraq article on Iraq-Niger uranium story)

(Musings On Iraq Review Hubris, The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, And The Selling Of The Iraq War)

2004 After talks with Sistani UN endorsed Ayatollah’s call for early elections but said they couldn’t

happen as soon as Sistani wanted

(Musings On Iraq book review The Occupation of Iraq, Winning The War, Losing The Peace)

(Musings On Iraq book review Patriotic Ayatollahs, Nationalism In Post-Saddam Iraq)

2004 Report CIA review showed it relied upon too many unreliable exile sources for intel on Iraq’s WMD

Included INC defector Haideri May 02 labeled fabricator by DIA but story continued to be used

2005 Early election results showed that Shiite United Iraqi Alliance got 140 of 275 seats in parliament

missing majority it wanted

2005 Provisional election results released UIA 48% Kurds 26% Iraqiya List 14% 58% voter turnout

2006 Saddam returned to court on order of judge and chanted “Down with Bush!”

2007 Baghdad Security Plan under Surge began Would place US and Iraqi forces in neighborhoods set up

combat outposts and focus upon protecting population

(Musings On Iraq interview with Prof Mansoor on the Surge)

(Musings On Iraq interview with New America Foundation’s Ollivant On Reassessing the Surge)

2007 Report Austrian sniper rifles Iran ordered showed up in Iraq

(Musings On Iraq interview with Galen Wright of Arkenstone blog on Iranian arms shipments to Iraqi militias) 

2007 Al Qaeda head Zawahiri released audiotape saying Bush gambled on Iraq and lost

2008 Parliament passed Provincial Powers Act to devolve authority to governorates Never really

implemented

2008 Awakening leader Sheikh Abu Risha announced political party Iraq’s Awakening to run in 2009

provincial elections

2008 Report Anbar Awakening splitting over politics Sheikh Abu Risha made deal with VP Hashemi

and Islamic Party Sheikh Suleiman accused Hashemi of attempting to take over Awakening Accused Islamic Party of working with ISI

(Musings On Iraq book review Illusions of Victory, The Anbar Awakening And The Rise Of The Islamic State)

(Musings On Iraq interview with author Carter Malkasian on Anbar Awakening)

2008 Report Only 10% of Sahwa started training to join ISF Govt promised 25% would join

2016 Sadr said economic reforms needed and better govt Gave Abadi 45 day deadline and supported

his technocratic govt idea

(Musings On Iraq interview with Reidar Visser on PM Abadi’s reform program)

(Musings On Iraq interview with Cambridge’s Michael Clark on Sadr, protests and PM Abadi’s reforms)

View the Iraq History Timelines