Iranian Parliamentary Speaker’s Visit Raises Questions About Tehran’s Influence In Iraq

The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Ali Larijani is currently on a four-day trip to Baghdad. His visit is raising questions about Iran’s role in the 2010 Iraqi elections, and Tehran’s continued support for militants.

Iran was instrumental in the formation of the main Shiite coalition, the Iraqi National Alliance. As the List was being put together a slew of Iranian officials traveled to Iraq, while Iraqi politicians went to Iran to talk with then leader of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who was residing in a hospital in Tehran. Iranians often joined those meetings. They failed to convince Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to join the National Alliance however. As Larijani entered Baghdad, Iraqi and Arab papers were full of reports that he was to put pressure on the Prime Minister to form a single Shiite list. This is highly unlikely as many members of the National Alliance oppose Maliki, and would not support his bid to remain prime minister, which is his top priority. Maliki’s allies in parliament have said that he will not give into Iranian pressure.

The 2010 Iraqi elections were definitely on Larijani’s agenda as he visited many top politicians. On November 6, 2009 he met with the head of the Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim to discuss the National Alliance. Larijani also had lunch with Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi of the Supreme Council, who said that despite problems Iran and Iraq had improved their relationship. The speaker of parliament Ilyad al-Samarrai, his two deputies, and other lawmakers were on his agenda as well.

A less friendly encounter happened when Larijani met with Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi of the newly formed Iraqi National Movement. Hashemi said that Iran had lost a lot of support within Iraq because of their interference in the country’s politics and security. Larijani also asked for Hashemi to pardon Iranian agents who had been captured trying to infiltrate into Iraq. The Vice President replied by saying that if Iran released Iraqis it held, than there could be an exchange.

Iran’s support for Shiite militants was on display just as Larijani entered Iraq. On November 4, two members of Hezbollah were captured with weapons in north Baghdad. Iran has used Hezbollah operatives to train and organize Shiite militiamen within Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. On November 6, security forces in Kut, Wasit put up wanted posters for four members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force, who they said were responsible for carrying out attacks on Iraqi forces and civilians. The Qods Force is a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards who were created to run its foreign policy. The Qods Force’s Ramazan Cops was created in the mid-1990s to deal with Iraq. It not only funds Special Groups and training camps, but is also responsible for giving money to Iraqi political parties, and economic aid to the country.

Iran’s main concerns in Iraq are to maintain a friendly Shiite government in Baghdad, make sure that it never becomes a foe to Tehran again, and hinder the U.S. effort there. Those have been seen during Larijani’s visit. He has tried to shore up the main Shiite alliance before the 2010 elections. At the same time, Iranian agents and their Hezbollah allies continue to carry out operations within Iraq to keep the country weak, and make the Americans pay a price for being there. For those reasons, Iran creates very mixed feelings within Iraq. People welcome their economic assistance and tourism, but resent their influence and destabilizing effect.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Ali Larijani meets Sayyed Ammar Al Hakim,” 11/6/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Al-Hashemi disagrees with Larijani on several issues – source,” 11/6/09
- “Al-Hashemi: tension dominates meeting with Larijani,” 11/6/09
- “Security forces seek 4 suspected Iranian group members,” 11/6/09
- “VP says relations with Iran improve despite ‘difficulties,’” 11/6/09

Az-Zaman, “Two Hizbullah Operatives Arrested in Iraq,” MEMRI Blog, 11/4/09

Al-Rafidayn, Al-Sabah, “Iraqi PM Al-Maliki May Succumb to Iranian Pressure to Join Shi’ite Coalition,” MEMRI Blog, 11/4/09

Al-Sharq al-Awsat, “Larijani Denies Mediation Role In Iraq,” MEMRI Blog, 11/6/09

Al-Zaman, Al-Mada, “Larijani Mediates Between Al-Maliki And Al-Hakim,” MEMRI Blog, 11/5/09

Iraq Moves Ahead With Oil Deals

Iraq recently signed a number of new oil deals and has plans to move ahead with several others in the coming weeks. These are part of the Oil Ministry’s plans to open up Iraq’s resources to joint ventures with foreign companies to boost petroleum production to 7 million barrels a day in seven years. This is desperately needed as oil provides almost all of the Iraqi government’s revenue, and Iraq needs billions for development and reconstruction.

On November 5, 2009 the Iraqi Oil Ministry agreed to an initial deal with Exxon Mobile and Royal Dutch Shell for the West Qurna 1 oil field in Basra. It has reserves of 7.4 billion barrels of oil, and was placed up for auction in June 2009. Exxon Mobile and Shell were the top bidders then, but asked for $4 for each extra barrel they produced after production goals were met. The Oil Ministry was only willing to pay $1. In October the two sides agreed to a remuneration fee of $1.90, and the companies said they would increase production from the current level of 280,000 barrels a day to 2.1 million in seven years.

The day before, British Petroleum (BP) and the Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC) also finalized their contract for the Rumaila field in Basra. Rumaila has 17.8 billion barrels in reserves, and is Iraq’s largest producer at nearly 1 million barrels a day. BP and CNPC have agreed to boost production to 2.85 million barrels a day in six years, and be paid $2 for every extra barrel produced. BP and CNPC was the only consortium to win a bid in the June round.

On November 2, Eni of Italy, Occidental Petroleum Oil of the U.S., and KOGAS of South Korea signed a preliminary contract for the Zubair field also in Basra. Like Exxon Mobile and Shell, the Eni led consortium were involved in the June auction, but failed to agree to terms with the Oil Ministry until now. Zubair has reserves of 4 billion barrels of oil, and the oil companies have promised to boost production from 195,000 barrels a day to 1.125 million barrels in seven years. There still seems to be some disagreements as Eni said they expected to invest $10 billion, but the Oil Minister said he wanted $35 billion.

The Oil Ministry is also involved in negotiations with a Japanese group consisting of Nippon Oil Corp., Inpex Corp., and JGC Corp. for the Nassiriya field in Dhi Qar. Nassiriya was not part of the June bid round, and has reserves of 5 billion barrels. This deal is for $10 billion and is for engineering and construction work.

Together these contracts, if they come to fruition could almost double Iraq’s oil production. That’s desperately needed as Iraq is almost completely dependent upon petroleum for money. Currently, it has the third largest oil reserves, but is only the 11th largest producer in the world. As reported before, Iraq’s oil production has slowly increased since the 2003 invasion, but has consistently fluctuated up and down and is nowhere near its potential. In September 2009 for example, Iraq produced 2.5 million barrels of oil per day, and exported 1.94 million. That was down from the 2.0 million barrels exported in August. The Oil Ministry’s maneuvers have also been criticized by parliament. The oil and gas committee declared the recent wave of deals as illegal because they were not approved by the legislature, and they want to question the Oil Minister over his poor performance. That is only one small portion of the dispute over Iraq’s most valuable resource. Like so many major issues in Iraq, the country’s politicians have not been able to separate the short-term technical need to boost oil production, from the long-term debate over who has control over contracts and development. That has led to a debilitating set of arguments that have held up major legislation like a new oil law. Those differences could delay these deals from being completed. The companies also have to be aware of local needs, as Iraqis have sabotaged the work of the only other foreign oil corporation working in the Ahdab field in Wasit over lack of jobs and damage to their land. All of these reasons together are why the petroleum industry has been slow to enter the Iraqi market because there are so many uncertainties. At the same time, these preliminary deals are a sign of success for the Oil Ministry, which has seen so many failures in the past. Five oil companies have agreed to their stiff terms after rejecting them in the June bid round. This does create some optimism that Iraq’s petroleum industry will finally begin to get the investment that it needs, but there are still many hurdles ahead.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraq MPs stress on questioning Oil Minister,” 11/4/09

BBC, “Iraq in third overseas oil deal,” 11/5/09

Dow Jones Newswires, “Iraq Sep Oil Exports -2.7% On Month At 1.956 Million B/D – Ministry,” 10/27/09

EU News Network, “Iraqi Lawmaker Irked Over BP Oil Contract,” 11/4/09

Hafidh, Hassan, “Iraq to Award Oil Field To ExxonMobil, Shell,” Wall Street Journal, 11/4/09

Hoyos, Carola, Warrell, Helen, and Bernard, Steve, “Crude Competition,” Financial Times, 6/30/09

Rasheed, Ahmed, “UPDATE 2-Iraq,Eni-led group sign initial Zubair oil deal,” Reuters, 11/2/09

Reuters, “Q+A-Iraq’s oil contracts, scale and obstacles,” 10/16/09

Williams, Timothy, “Iraq Signs Contract to Develop Oil Field,” New York Times, 11/4/09

Iraq’s Parliament Misses Another Deadline On New Election Law

October 15, 2009 was the original deadline for Iraq’s parliament to pass a new 2010 election law. As reported before, lawmakers could not agree on how to handle balloting in Tamim province, the home to Kirkuk, or whether to have an open or closed list voting system. Several more deadlines have passed since then, with still no breakthrough threatening to delay the elections.

The Iraqi Election Commission set the last date for action by the parliament as November 5, 2009. They said that if no agreement was made by that time, the balloting could not happen on its set date of January 16, 2010. Not enough lawmakers even showed up on the 5th to hold a discussion. This, despite intense pressure from outside forces to hold a vote. The U.S. Ambassador and the U.N.’s envoy to Iraq have both been sitting in on meetings of the leadership conference in parliament, Vice President Joe Biden called the President of the Kurdish region Massoud Barzani and the speaker of parliament Ilyad al-Samarrai, the Turkish Ambassador to Iraq also talked with Samarrai, and the head of Iran’s parliament also paid a visit to Iraqi lawmakers. That hasn’t helped, as most sessions of the legislature have started with short meetings of the legal committee, who are in charge of putting together the election bill, and then brief sessions of the full parliament who discuss other matters.

Now there is talk of having a vote on the latest proposal put forth by the U.N. on Saturday November 7, 2009. There are conflicting reports about whether this will be a successful day or not. The head of the legal committee and a member of the Kurdish Alliance (KA) both said that the Kurds had agreed to the U.N.’s plan of using the 2009 voter roles for Tamim, but making the elections provisional until a committee could go through those lists for irregularities. A seat for Arabs and Turkmen would also be set-aside in parliament to make up for the predicted victory of the KA in the province. Another member of the KA however, denied any such deal, while the same Kurdish parliamentarian who said there was a breakthrough commented that it was going to be found illegal by the federal court.

The dispute over Kirkuk is not the only issue holding things up. The Supreme Council, the Kurds’ closest allies in the legislature, has also been calling for more dialogue and consensus over the election law. They could be dragging out the process because they favor a closed list voting system, which only allows the public to select from lists, not individual candidates. The Election Commission has said that if no new election bill were passed by the parliament, it would have to revert to the old 2005 law that includes a closed list.

This is all part and parcel of the Iraqi parliament today. Most of the country’s struggles are being fought over in the political arena now, which means the parties tend to see things in zero-sum terms. That makes compromise and coming to terms with others all the harder. Kirkuk is one long-term problem that has consistently stymied the legislative process. It was such an issue that it led to the provincial elections being delayed from October 2008 to January 2009, and caused a veto of the first draft of the law. The struggle for position before the 2010 vote is just as intense as the winners will be able to name the prime minister. Both of those are the reasons why the discussion over the new election bill is being dragged out, and the politicians are failing to meet deadlines. In turn, it’s likely to blowback on them as it increases the negative view the Iraqi public has of its leaders.

SOURCES

AK News, “KA denies reaching agreement on electoral law,” 11/5/09
- “Stalemate of Iraqi national elections,” 11/3/09

Alsumaria, “IHEC: Parliament should enact elections’ law by Thursday,” 11/4/09
- “Kurdish alliance accepts Kirkuk proposal,” 11/5/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Lawmakers reach agreement on election law, vote on Saturday – MP,” 11/5/09
- “U.S. amb. does not pressure parliament to approve election law – MPs,” 11/3/09

Chon, Gina, “Iraqis Miss Target Date on Election,” Wall Street Journal, 10/16/09

DPA, “Iraqi election law again falters on Kirkuk dispute – Summary,” 11/4/09

Sullivan, Marisa Cochrane, “Iraq’s Parliamentary Election,” Institute for the Study of War, 10/21/09

Visser, Reidar, “A Closed Assembly Will Produce a Closed List,” Iraq And Gulf Analysis, 10/16/09
- “The Neutral, Piecemeal Approach to Kirkuk: How to Unlock the Current Stalemate,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 11/4/09
- “They Don’t Give a Damn about Kirkuk … But They Don’t Want to Vote Either?” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 11/1/09

Neo-Baathist-Nationalist Coalition Announced

October 31, 2009 was the deadline to register coalitions for the 2010 parliamentary elections. On that day a new list called the Iraqi National Movement was announced made up of parliamentarian Saleh al-Mutlaq of the National Dialogue Council, former Prime Minister Ilyad Allawi of the Iraqi National List, and Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. He was the former leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party, but left to form his own Renewal List. Hashemi had been in negotiations with Allawi and Mutlaq since August, and there were talks with Interior Minister Jawad Bolani and his Constitution Party. He chose to join Sheikh Ahmad Abu Risha of Anbar to form the Unity Alliance instead. Allawi was also courted by the major Shiite coalition, the Iraqi National Alliance. Hashemi may be responsible for the Awakening Councils of Diyala joining the Iraqi National Movement as well. The Islamic Party successfully co-opted the Sons of Iraq/Awakening movement in Diyala in 2007-2008, which helped their Iraqi Accordance Front List to come in first place in the 2009 elections there.

The Iraqi National Movement includes both Shiites, Allawi, and Sunnis, Mutlaq and Hashemi, but its main appeal is to Baathists and nationalists. Since the U.S. invasion Mutlaq and Allawi have consistently pushed for the inclusion and rehabilitation of former army officers from Saddam’s time along with Baathists. Hashemi on the other hand has roots with the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group that originated in Egypt, which gave birth to the Iraqi Islamic Party. All three also call for a strong central government, and to limit outside influences, especially from Iran.

Overall, the Iraqi National Movement is a medium sized coalition. In the 2009 provincial elections, Mutlaq and Allawi won 45 seats, accounting for 10.2% of the total. Allawi’s List gained seats in both the largely Sunni west and north, and a spattering across Shiite southern Iraq as well, and became part of the ruling coalitions in Babil, Qadisiyah, and Salahaddin. Mutlaq only gained representation in Sunnis areas, and came in second in Anbar where his party got the head of the council. In comparison, Maliki’s State of Law list won 140 seats, 31.8%, the Supreme Council got 55 seats, 12.5%, the Sadrists 41 seats, 9.3%, and former Prime Minister Ibrahima al-Jaafari 23 seats, 5.2%. Together those last three have formed the new Iraqi National Alliance, and got 119 seats total, 27.0%. The real importance of the Iraqi National Movement will be seen after the election, as no coalition is likely to even come out with a plurality. That will mean a huge amount of back door dealing and negotiations to name a new government, which will likely take months as it did the last two times Iraq went through that process.

Allawi and Mutlaq’s Showing In The 2009 Provincial Elections

Total Provincial Seats: 440

Allawi’s Iraqi National List – Provinces (# of seats)
Anbar (2)
Babil (3)
Baghdad (5)
Basra (2)
Diyala (3)
Qadisiyah (3)
Salahaddin (5)
Wasit (3)
TOTAL: 26, 5.9%

Mutlaq’s Iraqi National Project – Provinces (# of seats)
Anbar (6)
Baghdad (4)
Diyala (6)
Salahaddin (3)
TOTAL: 19, 4.3%

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraqi VP joins forces with ex-PM to form new bloc,” 10/28/09

Alsumaria, “New Iraq political coalition in the offing,” 8/24/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraq’s Unity Alliance formally announced,” 10/21/09
- “VP announces new list for upcoming parliamentary elections,” 9/12/09

Iraq The Model, “Accord Front Collapses, Sunni Tribes Seek Shiite Allies,” 8/15/09

Al Jazeera, “Iraqi parties form new coalition,” 10/31/09

Roads To Iraq, “The National Movement,” 10/31/09

Visser, Reidar, “Allawi-Mutlak: Consolidation at the Centre of Iraqi Politics,” Ira and Gulf Analysis, 10/27/09

October 09 Deaths Continue Up And Down Pattern

Since April 2009 monthly death counts for Iraq have fluctuated up and down. October was no different as it was higher than the previous month. Iraq’s ministries for example, reported 410 deaths in October, compared to 203 in September and 456 in August. They also recorded 1,275 wounded in October, and 711 in September.

Around half of last month’s casualties came from large bombings, most notably the October 25 Baghdad bombings, which killed 155 and wounded 520. In total, there were 22 mass casualty bombings in October resulting in 241 deaths and 887 wounded. In September, there were only 13 leading to 70 deaths and 263 wounded.

Baghdad remains the most violent city in Iraq. There were 53 attacks and incidents last month with 201 deaths and 703 wounded. That was followed by Mosul in Ninewa province with 66 attacks/incidents, 60 deaths and 82 wounded. After those two, Anbar was third with 29 attacks/incidents, 56 deaths, and 175 wounded, and Diyala was fourth with 21 attacks/incidents, 20 deaths, and 46 wounded. Southern Iraq remains the second least violent area with only 21 attacks/incidents overall with 9 deaths and 93 wounded. Babil is still troubled with insurgent and militia activity however. Special Groups are still active in the south as well carrying out six attacks on U.S. bases and patrols. Kurdistan was the least violent area of the country.

Overall, deaths are still down to their lowest levels since the 2003 invasion. According to Iraq’s ministries there were an average of 276.5 deaths in the first six months of 2009 compared to 385.0 in the last six months of 2008. The major reason is that many Sunnis, including insurgents, have decided to get involved in the political process, resulting in a steady decline in the number of attacks across the country since the January 2009 provincial elections.

Iraqi Deaths

	Brookings Institution	Iraq Body Count	icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Associated Press
2008
July	500	584	419	465	510
Aug.	450	592	311	431	475
Sep.	400	535	366	440	503
Oct.	350	528	288	318	446
Nov.	270	473	317	340	360
Dec.	350	522	320	316	393
2009
Jan.	270	276	187	191	242
Feb.	230	343	202	258	288
March	260	416	278	252	335
April	340	484	347	355	371
May	240	332	188	165	225
June	320	488	367	438	447
July	220	395	240	275	309
Aug.	300	493	439	456	425
Sep.	N/A	296	158	203	238
Oct.	N/A	439	320	410	364
Averages
3rd Qtr. 2008	450.0	570.3	365.3	446.3	496.0
4th Qtr. 2008	323.3	507.6	308.3	324.6	379.6
1st Qtr. 2009	253.3	345.0	222.3	233.6	288.3
2nd Qtr. 2009	300.0	434.6	300.6	319.3	347.6
3rd Qtr. 2009	N/A	394.6	279.0	311.3	324.0
Last 6 months of 2008	386.6	539.0	336.8	385.0	447.8
First 6 months of 2009	276.6	389.8	261.0	276.5	317.5

Number of Bombings and Casualty Statistics – April to October 2009

April 2009
Bombings: 21
Deaths: 198 + 32 Iranians
Wounded: 497 + 105 Iranians + 10 Americans

May 2009
Bombings: 9
Deaths: 111
Wounded: 262

June 2009
Bombings: 14
Deaths: 174
Wounded: 517

July 2009
Bombings: 35
Deaths: 180
Wounded: 655

August 2009
Bombings: 44
Deaths: 359
Wounded: 2,252

September 2009
Bombings: 13
Deaths: 70
Wounded: 263

October 2009
Bombings: 22
Deaths: 241
Wounded: 887

Attacks and Casualties By Province October 2008

Baghdad: 53 attacks/incidents
Dead: 201
Wounded: 703

Ninewa: 77 attacks/incidents
Deaths: 75
Wounded: 129

Anbar: 29 attacks/incidents
Deaths: 56
Wounded: 175

Diyala: 21 attacks/incidents
Deaths: 20
Wounded: 46

Tamim: 22 attacks/incidents
Deaths: 9
Wounded: 14

Salahaddin: 6 attacks/incidents
Deaths: 4
Wounded: 25

Southern Iraq: 21 attacks/incidents
Babil: 6
Karbala: 6
Dhi Qar: 5
Wasit: 2
Basra: 1
Qadisiyah: 1
Deaths: 9
Wounded: 93

Special Group attacks in southern Iraq
Mortar attack on U.S. base in Dhi Qar
Rocket attack on U.S. base in Dhi Qar
IED attack on U.S. patrol in Dhi Qar
Attack on U.S. base in Basra
Rocket attack on U.S. base in Kut
2 U.S. vehicles damaged in roadside bombing in Wasit

SOURCES

Al-Anbari, Bassim, “Triple attacks kill 19 in western Iraqi city,” 10/12/09

Agence France Presse, “Iraq death toll falls by half in September: officials,” 10/1/09

Associated Press, “Police: Suicide bomber kills 11 at mosque in Iraq,” 10/16/09
- “Suicide bomb kills 6 at funeral in Iraq,” 10/6/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 bombs defused in Mosul,” 10/26/09
- “2 bombs found in Huweija,” 10/7/09
- “2 civilians killed in Mosul,” 10/21/09
- “2 civilians wounded by bomb explosion in Baghdad,” 10/22/09
- “2 civilians wounded in 2 separate incidents in Mosul,” 10/5/09
- “2 civilians wounded in armed attack in Baaquba,” 10/8/09
- “2 civilians wounded in Thi-Qar blasts,” 10/4/09
- “2 civilians wounded, suspect arrested in Khanaqin,” 10/23/09
- “2 cops wounded in Mosul blast,” 10/5/09
- “2 gunmen arrested in Kirkuk while planting bomb,” 10/11/09
- “2 killed in separate incidents in Mosul,” 10/3/09
- “2 missiles land on U.S. base in Kut,” 10/23/09
- “2 policemen wounded in IED blast in Jalawlaa,” 10/28/09
- “2 unknown bodies found in Mosul,” 10/20/09
- “3 civilians wounded in Babel blast,” 10/10/09
- “3 cops killed, wounded in Falluja blast,” 10/17/09
- “3 IEDs defused in Amara,” 10/28/09
- “3 killed, 5 wounded in bombing in Mosul,” 10/28/09
- “3 people injured by sticky bomb in Talafar,”10/30/09
- “3 policemen killed, officer wounded in Mosul attack,” 10/29/09
- “4 cops killed, injured in Babel,” 10/20/09
- “4 cops wounded by IED in Kirkuk,” 10/15/09
- “5 killed, wounded in Falluja blast,’ 10/5/09
- “10 civilians wounded in Babel blast,” 10/4/09
- “Basra airport comes under Katyusha attack,” 10/12/09
- “Blast in Baghdad leaves 6 injuries,” 10/28/09
- “Blast in Falluja leaves no casualties,” 10/27/09
- “Blast in Ninewa wounds cement company chief,” 10/18/09
- “Blast kills 1, wounds 9 north of Hilla,” 10/18/09
- “Blast kills 2, wounds 9 north of Hilla,” 10/18/09
- “Blast kills civilian, injures 3 northeastern Baghdad,” 10/15/09
- “Body found, suspected gunman arrested in Kirkuk,” 10/25/09
- “Body of kidnapped Christian found in Kirkuk,” 10/5/09
- “Bomb explodes in Kirkuk without casualties,” 10/29/09
- “Bomb wounds 2 in Mosul,” 10/6/09
- “Bomber killed in northern Talafar,” 10/29/09
- “Children, mother wounded in Mosul blast,” 10/12/09
- “Civilian body found in eastern Kut,” 10/21/09
- “Civilian killed in Kirkuk,” 10/21/09
- “Civilian killed in tribal clashes in Mosul,” 10/12/09
- “Civilian wounded in Baghdad armed attack,” 10/12/09
- “Civilian wounded in IED blast in Ramadi,” 10/29/09
- “Civilian wounded in IED blast near Mosul,” 10/26/09
- “Contractor gunned down in Mosul,” 10/12/09
- “Cop, civilians injured in Baghdad bombing,” 10/5/09
- “Cop killed by gunmen in Talafar,” 10/1/09
- “Cop wounded in Falluja blast,” 10/11/09
- “Death toll from Baghdad blasts up to 155,” 10/26/09
- “District chief escapes attempt on his life in Mosul,” 10/19/09
- “Guided missiles seized in Basra,” 10/26/09
- “Guard killed in crowded souk in Mosul,” 10/23/09
- “Gunmen assassinate tribal affairs office chief in Ninewa,” 10/19/09
- “Gunmen blow up house of officer in Anbar,” 10/17/09
- “Gunmen storm building in Mosul, kill two civilians,” 10/26/09
- “Gunman kidnap 2 students in Kirkuk,” 10/20/09
- “Gunman killed while trying to plant bomb,” 10/6/09
- “Gunmen kill cop south of Falluja,” 10/21/09
- “Hand grenade injures 4 in Mosul,” 10/31/09
- “IED blast in Kirkuk, no casualties reported,” 10/24/09
- “IED blast kills 2 Iraqi soldiers, wounds 4 in Kirkuk,” 10/13/09
- “IED blast kills 3, wounds 4 in eastern Baghdad,” 10/28/09
- “IED blast near Mosul leaves no casualties,” 10/3/09
- “IED blast targets MNF patrol in Kirkuk,” 10/25/09
- “IED defused in Ramadi,” 10/26/09
- “IED defused in western Mosul,” 10/12/09
- “IED explodes in Nassiriya, no casualties reported,” 10/4/09
- “IED explodes in Talafar,” 10/6/09
- “IED explodes near officer’s house in southern Kirkuk,” 10/5/09
- “IED explodes near police patrol in Kirkuk,” 10/23/09
- “IED hits U.S. convoy in Baghdad,” 10/31/09
- “IED injures 6 in central Baghdad,” 10/1/09
- “Iraq army kills gunman in Mosul,” 10/19/09
- “Iraqi forces clash with smugglers on Syrian borders,” 10/16/09
- “Iraqi soldier killed, 2 wounded in Mosul,” 10/23/09
- “Katyusha rocket lands near Iraqi military post in Diwaniya,” 10/13/09
- “Local official in Falluja assassinated,” 10/23/09
- “Mayor, sons killed, wounded in Diala bombing,” 10/12/09
- “Missile defused in Kirkuk,” 10/9/09
- “Mortars wound civilians in Baghdad,” 10/31/09
- “Police defuse 7 rockets in eastern Wassit,” 10/5/09
- “Police defuse bomb in central Falluja,” 10/12/09
- “Police kill gunman in northeastern Mosul,” 10/2/09
- “Police seize ready-to-launch rockets in Basra,” 10/20/09
- “Policeman killed, 3 civilians wounded separately in Mosul,” 10/22/09
- “Policeman, gunman killed in Mosul,” 10/22/09
- “Policeman survives IED blast near his vehicle,” 10/18/09
- “Policeman wounded in Mosul blast,” 10/13/09
- “Pre. Student kidnapped in Kirkuk,” 10/26/09
- “Real-estate office owner killed in Mosul,” 10/25/09
- “Roadside bomb exploded, another dismantled in Kirkuk,” 10/14/09
- “Rocket lands in south Kirkuk,” 10/29/09
- “Rockets, launching pads seized in Falluja,” 10/6/09
- “Rockets left minor damage at base – U.S. forces in Thi-Qar,” 10/21/09
- “Sahwa official wounded in Diala,” 10/22/09
- “Samarra sahwa official survives attempt on his life,” 10/28/09
- “Sticky bomb defused at official building in Ninewa,” 10/28/09
- “Sticky bomb kills 2 women, injures 12 persons in Babel,” 10/21/09
- “Sticky bomb kills, wounds 5 family members,” 10/7/09
- “Sticky bomb wounds 4 people in Baghdad,” 10/22/09
- “Sticky bomb wounds 5 in Mosul,” 10/31/09
- “Suicide attack leaves 16 casualties in Diala,” 10/13/09
- “Suicide bomber kills 1, wounds 9 in Tikrit,” 10/24/09
- “Suspected bomber kills policeman, guard during interrogation,” 10/31/09
- “Two blasts hit U.S. patrol in Thi-Qar,” 10/14/09
- “Two gunmen killed while planting roadside bomb in Kirkuk,” 10/17/09
- “U.S. base in Nassiriya mortared,” 10/21/09
- “U.S. forces kill civilian, arrest 4 brothers,” 10/27/09
- “U.S. vehicle damaged in explosion in Wassit,” 10/25/09
- “Umm al-Nakhl sahwa chief assassinated,” 10/28/09
- “Unidentified body of woman found west of Makhmour,” 10/24/09
- “Vendor, child killed in northern Mosul,” 10/21/09
- “Woman killed, 2 civilians wounded by police mistake fire in Mosul,” 10/16/09
- “Woman killed, kidnapped person freed in Baghdad,” 10/20/09
- “Woman’s head found in Mosul,” 10/3/09

Bernama, “Civilian Killed, 10 Injured In Bomb Attack In Baghdad Snack Restaurant,” 10/19/09

DPA, “Four killed, three injured in attacks in Mosul,” 10/21/09
- “Four killed, two injured in two separate attacks in Iraq,” 10/1/09
- “Four policemen killed in Iraq,” 10/17/09

Al-Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday October 5 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/5/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Saturday October 24, 2009
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday October 5, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/5/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday October 11, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/11/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 26 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/26/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 18 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/18/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 20 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/29/09
- “Round-up of daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 29 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/29/09
- “Round-up of daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 6 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/6/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 13 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/13/09
- “Round-up of daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 18 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/18/09
- “Round-up of daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 14 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/14/09

Hussein, Jenan, “Round-up f daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 20 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/20/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 28 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/28/09

Icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 2 October, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/2/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 9 October, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/9/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 19 October, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/19/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 1 October, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/1/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 8 October, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/8/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 7 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/7/09

ITN, “Clear up after Iraq minibus bombing,” 10/7/09

Karim, Ammar, “UN envoy probes Baghdad security as death toll doubles,” Agence France Presse, 11/2/09

Kimball, Jack, “Attacks kill 11, wound over 50 people,” 10/14/09

Leland, John, “Scattering of Attacks in Iraq,” New York Times, 11/1/09

McClatchy Newspapers, “Car bombs explode in Baghdad, killing at least 135 people,” 10/25/09

Multi-National Corps – Iraq, “MND-B, ISF detain five suspects after grenade attack,” 10/12/09

O’Hanlon, Michael Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” 9/22/09

Press TV, “Seven killed in Baghdad mortar attack,” 10/14/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 3,” 10/3/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 9,” 10/9/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 11,” 10/11/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 12,” 10/12/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 14,” 10/14/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 15,” 10/15/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 17,” 10/17/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 18,” 10/18/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 19,” 10/19/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 20,” 10/20/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 21,” 10/21/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 26,” 10/26/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 30,” 10/30/09
- “Iraq oil pipeline to Turkey sabotaged-engineer,” 10/28/09

Salaheddin, Sinan, “Roadside bomb in Baghdad targets Iraqi security forces, kills 1 soldier,” 10/15/09

Santana, Rebecca, “85,000 Iraqis killed in almost 5 years of war,” Associated Press, 10/14/09

Surk, Barbara, “Bombs kill 6 around Iraq,” Associated Press, 10/20/09
- “Half Iraqis killed in October died in one attack,” Associated Press, 11/2/09
- “Truck bomb destroys key bridge in western Iraq,” Associated Press, 10/17/09

UNN, “Iraq: Two explosion, 3 killed & 9 injured,” 10/19/09

Xinhua, “2 killed, 13 wounded in Baghdad bomb attacks,” 10/18/09
- “5 injured in fuel tanker truck bombing outside Baghdad airport,” 10/4/09
- “12 people wounded in bomb explosion in south Baghdad,” 10/21/09
- “At least one killed in suicide car bombing in Diyala,” 10/29/09
- “Bomb explosion kills 3 south of Baghdad,” 10/8/09
- “Civilian killed in Iraq’s Diyala violence,” 10/5/09
- “Insurgent killed, 6 injured in Iraq’s Diyala violence,” 10/12/09
- “Iraqi journalist killed in bomb attack in N Kirkuk,” 10/21/09
- “Iraqi parliament evacuated after bomb discovery: lawmakers,” 10/3/09
- “Seven people wounded in Iraq’s Diyala violence,” 10/22/09
- “Two policemen killed in Baghdad violence,” 10/5/09

Mid-2009 Weekly Security Statistics For Iraq

Despite the recent October 2009 Baghdad bombing, and the previous one in August, attacks in Iraq are at their lowest level since the 2003 invasion. The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction recorded drops in weekly attacks in eleven of Iraq’s eighteen provinces from May to October 2009. The three governorates in Kurdistan, Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya had the least amount of incidents at 0.5 or less for the last six months, followed by the southern provinces of Karbala, Qadisiyah, Najaf, and Muthanna that also saw fewer than one attack per week from August to October. Babil was the one exception in that region, as it had in increase in attacks going from 3.9 in the 2nd quarter of 2009 to 5.1 in the third. Much of that is due to sticky and roadside bombs planted by a mix of Sunni and Shiite militants, and gangs.

The five most violent areas were Diyala, Tamim, Salahaddin, Ninewa, and Baghdad in that order. Out of those however, only Salahaddin saw a very small increase from the second quarter of 2009 to the third, going from 25.2 per week to 25.8. Those provinces along with Anbar however, hold roughly 70% of Iraq’s population. All remain violent because Baghdad is the seat of power, while Diyala, Tamim, Salahaddin, and Ninewa are at the center of the ethnosectarian struggle in the country.

These numbers, along with the fluctuating monthly death counts show that Iraq is a much changed place. Violence is still at unacceptable levels, but the number of attacks and casualties have seen a steady decline over the last two years. Not only that, but the nature of the conflict has drastically changed. Almost all of the incidents consist of bombings, mortar and rocket attacks, and assassinations. There are hardly any armed clashes between militants and the security forces anymore. This is due to the fact that Sunnis are attempting to join the political process, and the Shiite Special Groups and militias are hardly active anymore. This is not captured in the media, which hardly mentions Iraq anymore, and when it does, it’s almost always about violence. That creates a distorted picture of the situation there, and makes Iraq seem like it is in a perpetual state of chaos, when in fact, many there are attempting to return to their normal lives.

Weekly Average Attack Statistics In Iraq – May to October 2009

Province	May-July 09	Aug.-Oct. 09	% Change
Baghdad	74.8	63.1	-16%
Ninewa	65.5	53.1	-19%
Salahaddin	25.2	25.8	+3%
Tamim	20.9	19.8	-5%
Diyala	24.7	17.8	-28%
Anbar	14.9	9.2	-37%
Babil	3.9	5.1	+29%
Basra	5.2	4.1	-21%
Maysan	3.4	2.4	-30%
Dhi Qar	1.6	1.6	0%
Wasit	1.5	1.1	-32%
Qadisiyah	0.4	0.9	+128%
Najaf	1.2	0.4	-70%
Karbala	0.3	0.4	+14%
Muthanna	0.3	0.4	+14%
Irbil	0.2	0.4	+90%
Dohuk	0.5	0.2	-68%
Sulaymaniya	0.3	0.0	-100%

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “12 civilians wounded by roadside bomb blast in Babel,” 10/21/09
- “Sticky bomb kills 2 women, injures 12 persons in Babel,” 10/21/09

Cordesman, Anthony, "Recent Trends in the Iraq War: Maps and Graphs," Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10/1/09

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/09

Iraq Returns To Blame Game Over Baghdad Bombings

The day after the October 25, 2009 bombings of the Justice Ministry and provincial council buildings in Baghdad, the U.S. military praised how the government was handling the situation compared to the August 2009 attacks. After that event, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki started a major diplomatic row with Syria, blaming Baathists there for masterminding the bombing. Baghdad aired a taped confession of a suspect on TV who said that he had made one of the truck bombs on orders from two Baathist officials in Damascus. That was contradicted by the fact that Al Qaeda in Iraq was the only group to officially take responsibility for the attack, and after the confession appeared, Iraqi security forces arrested an Al Qaeda cell that they said made the explosives. U.S. officials are also now telling the press that they don’t put much credibility behind the confession. This time a U.S. military spokesman said that Baghdad was being more pragmatic and deliberate in their response, by launching an investigation rather than making wild accusations.

Since then Al Qaeda in Iraq’s Islamic State took responsibility for the bombings, Iraqi forces with U.S. advisers conducted raids in Baghdad looking for a suspect they believed was behind both the August and October bombings, extra security was added to the capital, and 61 soldiers and police officers were arrested for incompetence in stopping the attack. That period may be ending however.

Spurred on by public dissatisfaction with the government’s inability to stop the bombings, Iraqi officials have begun blaming foreigners, and each other once again. Iraq’s Foreign Minister called for a U.N. investigation into the bombings, a request that started after the August attack. Baghdad’s governor accused the security forces of negligence, while the provincial council voted to dismiss the Interior Minister and the Baghdad Operations Chief. Most recently, on October 30, the Foreign Minister said that Syria and Baathists that resided there were involved in this attack as well. Iraq is also compiling a portfolio on foreign support for terrorists that it will present to a new United Nations envoy soon.

In August, Prime Minister Maliki tried to defer blame and distract public opinion from a domestic security failure by turning it into an international event. This time, the Iraqi government’s response was better at first. That didn’t last long as more and more politicians are beginning to turn on each other, and pointing fingers at foreign interference again, even though Al Qaeda in Iraq is the only one that has publicly come out saying they were behind the bombing, just like they did in August. Syria has definitely allowed a plethora of militants to operate out of its country against Iraq, but no convincing evidence has been publicly aired to imply that either Damascus or the Baathists were behind either the August or October attacks. With Iraq caught up in campaigning for the 2010 elections, and the Prime Minister’s reputation on the line with the security lapses, it is easier for officials to accuse others than admit that they have made mistakes.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraq prepares evidence for UN Chief envoy,” 10/31/09
- “Security Forces blamed for Baghdad attacks,” 10/28/09
- “Zebari accuses Syria of implication in Iraq attacks,” 10/31/09

Arraf, Jane, “Baghdad bombings: Iraqis at scene blame political parties,” 10/25/09
- “Iraq bombings: US military spokesman praises Iraqi response,” Christian Science Monitor, 10/26/09

Al Jazeera, “Iraq seeks UN inquiry into blasts,” 10/27/09

Leland, John, “Iraq Makes Sweeping Arrests Over Baghdad Blasts,” New York Times, 10/30/09

Sly, Liz, “Iraq beefs up security in Baghdad after bombings,” Los Angeles Times, 10/27/09