Casualties In Mosul Continue To Drop In 2010

On a per capita basis, the northern city of Mosul in Ninewa province was the most violent area of Iraq last year. Deaths there have been declining since reaching a yearly high in August 2009. In that month, 102 people were killed, but afterward deaths went to 65 in September, 60 in October, 37 in November, and 44 in December. January 2010 followed that trend with 38 deaths. The number of wounded has gone up and down. Last month 89 were wounded, compared to 108 in December, 71 in November, 82 in October, 60 in September, 171 in August, and 169 in July. In the last two years however, the average number of wounded has steadily declined from 6.92 per day in the first half of 2008 to 3.59 a day in the 2nd half of 2009. For January 2010 there were an average of 2.87 wounded per day. At the same time, the number of attacks has stayed relatively the same in the last seven months at about 2 per day. For the second half of 2009 there was an average of 2.19 per day. Last month there was an average of 1.90 a day. Most of those were small bombings, IEDs, shootings, and occasional attacks on Iraqi security forces.

Mosul remains the last urban outpost of the insurgency, and the Arab-Kurd divide is what they use to justify their continued operations there. At the same time, the election of the al-Hadbaa party in the January 2009 provincial elections has empowered Arabs in Ninewa, and may have led to the decreasing casualty numbers there since last year.

Security Statistics For Mosul - January 2010
59 Attacks/Incidents, avg. 1.90/day
38 Deaths, avg. 1.22/day
89 Wounded, avg. 2.87/day

Averages:

Attacks:
1st Half 2008: 57.50/Month, Avg. 1.89/day
2nd Half 2008: 75.33/Month, Avg. 2.45/day
1st Half 2009: 75.66/Month, Avg. 2.50/day
2nd Half 2009: 67.16/Month, Avg. 2.19/day

Deaths:
1st Half 2008: 88.0/Month, Avg. 2.90/day
2nd Half 2008: 80.83/Month, Avg. 2.63/day
1st Half 2009: 59.66/Month, Avg. 1.97/day
2nd Half 2009: 64.50/Month, Avg. 2.10/day

Wounded:
1st Half 2008: 210.0/Month, Avg. 6.92/day
2nd Half 2008: 168.33/Month, Avg. 5.48/day
1st Half 2009: 135.66/Month, Avg. 4.49/day
2nd Half 2009: 110.16/Month, Avg. 3.59/day

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 bombs go off in Mosul,” 1/19/10
- “2 civilians killed separately in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “2 civilians wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/21/10
- “2 gunmen killed in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “2 soldiers wounded by gunmen in western Mosul,” 1/29/10
- “3 Christians wounded in Mosul Uni. Blast,” 1/10/10
- “3 soldiers, kid wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/10/10
- “5 civilians injured in thermal bomb blast in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “5 killed or wounded separately in Mosul,” 1/31/10
- “10 wounded in Mosul explosion,” 1/4/10
- “Army forces kill gunman in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Army kills suicide bomber west of Mosul,” 1/21/10
- “Blast inside a restaurant northern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Body found, man wounded in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Bomb kills boy in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “Bus attack foiled in Mosul,” 1/16/10
- “Christian shot dead by gunmen in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “Civilian gunned down in eastern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Civilian gunned down in Mosul,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian killed in Mosul Christian – source,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian, soldier wounded in checkpoint attack,” 1/16/10
- “Civilian wounded in Mosul attack,” 1/26/10
- “Civilian wounded in shooting inside Mosul restaurant,” 1/14/10
- “Cop gunned down in popular café in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Cop wounded in mortar attack in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Eastern Mosul blast casualties up to 36,” 1/20/10
- “Former Iraqi army officer gunned down in Mosul,” 1/26/10
- “Goldsmith kidnapped in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Gunman throws hand grenade at police vehicle in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Gunmen arrested after attacking patrol in Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen kill 3 guards in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Gunmen kill woman, daughter in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen shoot bank employee in western Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “House blast kills 2 kids, wound another in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “IED wounds 2 cops in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “Iraq soldier wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded, IED defused in Mosul,” 1/7/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/2/10
- “Katyusha rocket hits a house in southern Mosul,” 1/12/10
- “Mayor gunned down in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Second attack on Christians in Mosul in less than 24 hours,” 1/18/10
- “Sticky bomb kills cop in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Sticky device kills civilian in Mosul,” 1/24/10
- “Woman killed inside her house in Mosul,” 1/31/10

DPA, “Two policemen killed, Christian man kidnapped in Iraq,” 1/2/10

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 07 January 2010,” 1/7/10

Iraq Body Count, “Civilian deaths from violence in 2009,” 12/31/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 1,” 1/2/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 14,” 1/14/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 22,” 1/22/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 27,” 1/27/10

Schreck, Adam, “Iraqi President Orders Probe on Elections,” Associated Press, 1/20/10