Friday, January 8, 2010

Review of Security Situation In Mosul - 2009


In a recent study of security statistics, Iraq Body Count found that Mosul was the most violent city in Iraq in 2009. Mosul, with a population of around 1.8 million people had 735 deaths in 2009, compared to 1,488 deaths in Baghdad that has a population of around 6.5 million. Mosul also had more violent incidents that led to fatalities, 535, than Baghdad, 277. Most of the violence in Mosul in 2009 was made up of assassinations, drive-by shootings, IEDs, and car bombs, and lacked the mass casualty bombings that regularly occurred in Baghdad. 

In terms of trends, the average number of attacks in 2009 was about the same as 2008, while casualties were slightly down. In the first half of 2008 there was an average of 1.89 attacks per day, and 2.45 per day in the second half. That compared to 2.50 attacks per day in the first half of 2009, and 2.19 in the last half. In 2008, average daily attacks slightly increased from January, 1.85, to December, 2.09, while in 2009 they went up and then down. In January 2009 there was an average of 1.67 attacks per day, then 2.43 per day by June, before going down to 1.93 by December. Deaths saw an overall decline from 2008 to 2009, starting at an average of 2.90 per day in the first half of 2008, and then 2.10 per day by the second half of 2009. That was a slight increase from the first half of 2009 however where there was an average of 1.97 per day. The number of wounded saw a more steady decline going from an average of 6.92 per day in the first half of 2008 to 3.59 per day by the second half of 2009. At the very end of the year however, there were the fewest deaths since 2007 with 37 killed in November 2009 and 44 fatalities in December.

Two opposing factors can explain both the decline in violence and its continuation in Mosul. First, the victory of the al-Hadbaa Party in the January 2009 provincial elections ushered in the return to power of Sunnis in the city’s Ninewa province. They gained the cooperation of some of the nationalist insurgent groups in the city and former Baathists. At the same time, Mosul is divided between Arabs and Kurds, which gives Al Qaeda in Iraq and other militants reason to carry on with their attacks.  

2009 Attack and Casualty Statistics for Mosul

Attacks:
Jan. 52/Avg. 1.67/day
Feb. 81/Avg. 2.89/day
Mar. 86/Avg. 2.77/day
Apr. 79/Avg. 2.63/day
May 83/Avg. 3.06/day
Jun. 73/Avg. 2.43/day
Jul. 73/Avg. 2.35/day
Aug. 77/Avg. 2.48/day
Sep. 72/Avg. 2.40/day
Oct. 66/Avg. 2.12/day
Nov. 55/Avg. 1.83/day
Dec. 60/Avg. 1.93/day

Deaths:
Jan. 56/Avg. 1.80/day
Feb. 58/Avg. 2.00/day
Mar. 69/Avg. 2.22/day
Apr. 53/Avg. 1.76/day
May 64/Avg. 2.06/day
Jun. 58/Avg. 1.93/day
Jul. 79/Avg. 2.54/day
Aug. 102/Avg. 3.29/day
Sep. 65/Avg. 2.16/day
Oct. 60/Avg. 1.93/day
Nov. 37/Avg. 1.23/day
Dec. 44/Avg. 1.41/day

Wounded:
Jan. 56/Avg. 1.80/day
Feb. 111/Avg. 3.96/day
Mar. 169/Avg. 5.45/day
Apr. 191/Avg. 6.36/day
May 164/Avg. 4.70/day
Jun. 123/Avg. 4.10/day
Jul. 169/Avg. 5.45/day
Aug. 171/Avg. 5.51/day
Sep. 60/Avg. 2.00/day
Oct. 82/Avg. 2.64/day
Nov. 71/Avg. 2.36/day
Dec. 108/Avg. 3.48/day

Averages:

Attacks:
1st Half 2008: 57.50/Month, Avg. 1.89/day
2nd Half 2008: 75.33/Month, Avg. 2.45/day
1st Half 2009: 75.66/Month, Avg. 2.50/day
2nd Half 2009: 67.16/Month, Avg. 2.19/day

Deaths:
1st Half 2008: 88.0/Month, Avg. 2.90/day
2nd Half 2008: 80.83/Month, Avg. 2.63/day
1st Half 2009: 59.66/Month, Avg. 1.97/day
2nd Half 2009: 64.50/Month, Avg. 2.10/day

Wounded:
1st Half 2008: 210.0/Month, Avg. 6.92/day
2nd Half 2008: 168.33/Month, Avg. 5.48/day
1st Half 2009: 135.66/Month, Avg. 4.49/day
2nd Half 2009: 110.16/Month, Avg. 3.59/day

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 civilians gunned down in Mosul,” 12/28/09
- “2 cops wounded in Mosul bombing,” 12/30/09
- “2 gunmen killed, detained in western Mosul,” 12/28/09
- “5 wounded as IED blast rips through Mosul,” 12/10/09
- “Army patrol hit by IED in Mosul,” 12/14/09
- “Army recruit killed, 19 injured in Mosul bombing,” 12/13/09
- “Blast near Mosul church kills 4, wounds 40,” 12/15/09
- “Body of merchant found hours after kidnapping west of Mosul,” 12/13/09
- “Bomb wounds 2 civilians in Mosul,” 12/1/09
- “Child wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 12/3/09
- “Child wounded in thermal bomb attack in Mosul,” 12/17/09
- “Christian killed in eastern Mosul,” 12/24/09
- “Christian killed in Mosul,” 12/17/09
- “Civilian killed, body found in Mosul,” 12/25/09
- “Civilian killed, child injured in Mosul,” 12/29/09
- “Civilian killed in northern Mosul,” 12/15/09
- “Civilian killed in western Mosul,” 12/21/09
- “Civilian killed inside own store in Mosul,” 12/17/09
- “Civilian wounded in eastern Mosul,” 12/10/09
- “Cop gunned down in Mosul,” 12/19/09
- “Cop killed, 2 wounded in Mosul blast,” 12/8/09
- “Cop killed, civilian wounded in 2 incidents in Mosul,” 12/19/09
- “Cop wounded by gunmen fire in Mosul,” 12/9/09
- “Ex-cop gunned down in Mosul,” 12/5/09
- “Gunman arrested after attacking government vehicle,” 12/15/09
- “Gunmen kill 3 employees in Mosul,” 12/25/09
- “Gunmen kill cop in Mosul,” 12/21/09
- “Gunmen wound Christian in western Mosul,” 12/30/09
- “Hand grenade injures 3 people in Mosul,” 12/29/09
- “IED blast near police HQ in Mosul,” 12/6/09
- “IED explodes near church in Mosul; no casualties,” 12/15/09
- “Iraqi soldier killed, brother wounded in Mosul,” 12/22/09
- “Iraqi soldier killed in eastern Mosul,” 12/15/09
- “Iraq soldier wounded in Mosul blast,” 12/12/09
- “Iraqi servicemen wound civilian in Mosul,” 12/14/09
- “Laborer found dead in Mosul,” 12/16/09
- “Mosul attack’s casualties up to 7,” 12/23/09
- “Mosul mayor escapes assassination attempt,” 12/24/09
- “Old man injured in armed attack in Mosul,” 12/28/09
- “Police kill armed man in Mosul,” 12/28/09
- “Police kill gunman in Mosul,” 12/30/09
- “Police officer, woman wounded by thermal bomb in Mosul,” 12/15/09
- “Policeman wounded by gunmen fire in Mosul,” 12/3/09
- “Policeman wounded in attack on his patrol in Mosul,” 12/6/09
- “Policeman wounded in Mosul blast,” 12/12/09
- “Retired army officer gunned down in Mosul,” 12/23/09
- “Roadside bomb wounds 2 Iraqi soldiers in Ninewa,” 12/10/09
- “Senior officer survives assassination attempt in Mosul,” 12/10/09
- “Soldier killed, medic injured in shooting in Mosul,” 12/22/09
- “Thermal bomb wounds 2 soldiers in Mosul,” 12/21/09
- “URGENT/Cart bomb leaves 5 casualties in Mosul,” 12/23/09

DPA, “Witnesses: Ex-Baathist assassinated in northern Iraq,” 12/25/09

Al-Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday December 7, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 12/7/09

International Crisis Group, “Iraq’s New Battlefront: The Struggle Over Ninewa,” 9/28/09

Iraq Body Count, “Civilian deaths from violence in 2009,” 12/31/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 24,” 12/24/09

Xinhua, “Three policemen killed in bomb attack in northern Iraq,” 12/15/09
- “Tribal leader, police officer killed in Iraq’s violence,” 12/26/09

1 comment:

C.H. said...

This is interesting...Mosul is the same size as Ciudad Juarez, a city in Northern Mexico just over the border from Texas. Juarez had over 2,600 murders last year, which is more than Baghdad and Mosul combined, if this report is true. Perhaps it goes to show that the US press should complain about our own security situation here and stop trying to portray Iraq as a failure.

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was cited in “Analysis: ‘Signs of Recovery for the Islamic State,’” by Kyle Orton for The Henry Jackson Society. I was interviewed for...