In July the World Food Programme released a report on the current drought in Iraq. It was the latest warning about the devastating affects climate change is having on the country.
Iraq’s drought started in 2021 and followed other extreme water shortages in 1983, 1992 and 2008. It began with record low rain and water down the Euphrates and Tigris rivers.
The situation is only expected to get worse. In the next 30 years the country’s water supply is predicted to drop by 20% while rain could decline 17% by 2050. The flow down the Euphrates is estimated to be down 50% and the Tigris 25% by next year. The gap between water supply and demand will more than double by 2035.
The first major impact of these changes will be upon the agricultural sector. Rising temperatures will reduce working hours and cut productivity. In 2023 wheat production was 11% less than 2022.
In 2020 the World Bank did a study based upon different water scarcity scenarios. If there was a 20% decline in water supply in the next 30 years Iraq would face a 3.45% drop in GDP by 2050. There would be a decline in wages in rural areas while prices would increase at the same time. That would lead to more poverty with people not being able to afford more expensive food caused by drought.
That will increase Iraq’s dependency upon food imports. In turn this makes the country vulnerable to fluctuations in international markets. In 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine Iraq had to buy wheat from Australia at more than $70 per ton. That forced parliament to pass an emergency spending bill for $17.14 billion. If there is any drop in oil prices it could devastate the nation’s ability to buy food abroad.
There has already been social unrest caused by these issues. In 2018-19 there were protests over water shortages especially in Basra. In 2022 there were demonstrations over rising prices caused by Russia’s war with Ukraine. These would likely increase with a worsening of the situation.
There have been a number of international studies that have pointed out the dire situation Iraq faces due to climate change. Baghdad has started talks with Turkey over the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers but they have little bargaining power. There has been nothing serious done within the country to deal with water shortages. That’s because the elite is not interested in the struggles of the public but rather believes the people should serve them as the providers of services and public salaries. Until the situation reaches a crisis point it is unlikely the government will do anything substantial and by then it might be too late.
SOURCES
World Food Programme, “Drought In Iraq,” July 2024
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