The New
York Times had a great article on the decision behind the new offensive in
northwest Mosul. In mid-April Prime Minister Haider Abadi held a conference
with his commanders in Hamam al-Alil. The premier argued that the operation was
dragging out, and that only benefited the Islamic State, therefore a change was
needed. The officers then debated who should be responsible for the new thrust,
since most of their forces had been involved in the fight since the start, and
had suffered heavy losses as a result. Two main issues were brought up. First,
was that the army had not taken part in any of the fighting in west Mosul, only
the Golden Division, Rapid Reaction Division, and Federal Police had. Second, some
believed the Federal Police were not holding up their responsibilities as they
have been stuck in the Old City for two months now. Finally, the decision was
made that the army’s 9th Division would attack the city from the
north. Previously it had been working with the Hashd’s Al-Abbas Division in
clearing the Badush district. After that was accomplished in April it simply
sat outside the city. The plan is to push into Mosul from the north and south
to spread out the Islamic State’s fighters. The Old City will be freed last. While
the Iraqis have improved, it seems that they still have work to do in
coordinating their forces. A lot of that has to do with the divided command the
Iraqi forces (ISF) fight under. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division
answer to the Interior Ministry, the army to the Defense Ministry, the Golden
Division is a separate entity, which is directly under the prime minister, and
the Hashd are a confederation of separate units. This caused problems in east
Mosul when the Golden Division was told to attack the city by itself because
the army hadn’t caught up, and then when it finally arrived, there was a lack
of cooperation initially. These issues still need to be worked out as the army
could have attacked Mosul long ago.
The new offensive was announced on May 4, which raises some
questions. The 9th Division and units from the Rapid Reaction
Division attacked
in the morning. Mesherfa,
Kanisa and Harmat were assaulted
and declared freed
by the end of the day. The point
of this thrust is to cut through the northern section of the city and reach the
Tigris River and the Fifth Bridge. The army is being supported by U.S.
advisers, who helped planned the operation and probably have Special Forces
operating along the front as well. The problem with today’s announcement was
that troops were said to have assaulted Mosul from the north on May
1. That included attacking Harmat and several other neighborhoods by the
police and Golden Division. Did that really happen or was that just propaganda
as the Iraqis are ought to do? It’s unclear as of now.
As the fighting has picked back up, so has civilian casualties.
The deaths of 11 people in west Mosul was blamed
upon a Coalition air strike. Shelling
also led to 79 fatalities and 159 wounded since the start of May. Civilians
have suffered the brunt of the battle for the city. The increased use of heavy
weapons by the Coalition and Iraqi forces in the west has also increased the
casualty rate.
For most of April there were more people leaving the
displaced camps then arriving, but that has been reversed in May. On April
30 there were 339,558 registered displaced. That jumped to 358,410 on May
2, and then 359,250 on May 4. There is always a constant flow of people in and
out of the city, and there was a slight ebb in combat in April, which probably
attributed to the increase in returns. People area also unhappy with staying in
the camps where their movement is severely restricted, and there is a lack of
jobs. That has led many people to leave and move to east Mosul even if they
didn’t originate from there. In total, 114,030 people have been counted as
returnees. The real number is probably much higher as many never signed up with
the authorities or aid groups.
SOURCES
Aboulenein, Ahmed
and Rasheed, Ahmed, “Mosul offensive gains fresh momentum as army attacks IS
from northwest,” Reuters, 5/4/17
Associated Press,
“Spokesman: Iraqi Forces Launch New Push in Mosul’s West,” 5/4/17
Baghdad Post, "240 civilians killed, injured in 4 days
by gov't shelling in Mosul," 5/4/17
- "Security forces liberate 3 neighborhoods
in right bank of Mosul," 5/4/17
- "Security forces storm Hawi Kanesah in
Mosul," 5/4/17
BBC, “Mosul battle:
Iraqis open new front to retake city from IS,” 5/4/17
Gordon, Michael,
“Iraqi Forces Open a Front in West Mosul, Trying to Squeeze ISIS,” New York
Times, 5/4/17
International
Migration of Migration, “Displacement Tracking Matrix Emergency Tracking,
Factsheet #27 – Mosul Operations From 17 October To 04 May,” 5/4/17
Al Jazeera, “Iraqi
forces launch new operation northwest of Mosul,” 5/4/17
Morris, Loveday,
“Iraqi forces open new front in Mosul offensive, gearing up for a final
showdown,” Washington Post, 5/4/17
Mostafa, Mohamed, "Eleven civilians die in western
Mosul airstrikes, coalition suspected," Iraqi News, 5/4/17
Mostafa, Nehal, "Offensives begin to
liberate two western Mosul districts," Iraqi News, 5/1/17
-"Updated: More locations liberated in
western Mosul," Iraqi News, 5/4/17
NINA, "Security Forces Enter Haramat Area
Of Mosul's Right Side," 4/19/17
Rojkan, Mira, “IS Continues Using Drones Against Iraqi
Forces in Mosul,” Bas News, 5/4/17
Rudaw, “Iraqi army
launches assault to northwestern Mosul, controls village,” 5/4/17
- “Normalcy trickles
back into liberated areas of west Mosul,” 5/4/17
Xinhua, "Iraqi forces make new push against
IS stronghold in western Mosul," 5/4/17
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