The third day of the last phase of the Battle for Mosul saw
fighting on all fronts, with limited progress. The Federal Police moved 100
more meters into Zinjali
for a total of 400 meters. Most of the Islamic State fighters in the
neighborhood were said to have retreated
to the Old City. There was continued clashes in that district and Saha where reinforcements
were sent in. The Iraqi air force once again leafletted
the city telling people to flee through safe corridors set up by the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF). Originally, the government told the population to stay within the
city because neither it nor aid agencies had the capacity to deal with them.
That greatly complicated the battle and has led to huge casualties. Baghdad has
finally changed tact and is now telling citizens to leave to make way for the
ISF.
Iraqis were being overly optimistic as usual about the
operation. A major from the Golden Division told The
Telegraph the battle would be over in twelve days by June 10. Other ISF sources
were saying it would be less than a week. Prime Minister Haider Abadi visited
the troops in the city, and promised that victory was pending soon. Iraqi
propaganda is always pushing constant progress and victories, and with the climax
of the battle at hand that hasn’t changed. Unfortunately, the fighting has been
much tougher than the official announcements and may last longer than these
latest predictions.
The Hashd finally reached the Syrian border in western
Ninewa. Three towns
were freed,
while fighters reached the center of Baaj. According to Hashd leader Shaikh
Sami al-Masoudi a ditch would be dug along the Iraq-Syrian border to secure the
area. A Hezbollah Nujaba commander went further saying his forces were ready to
move into Syria if permitted by Baghdad. Many of the Hashd units involved in
the west Ninewa campaign such as Nujaba, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, and Badr already
have men operating in Syria supporting the Assad government and being
coordinated and organized by Iran. Many have talked about crossing the border
with official authorization as the pro-Iranian groups consider both conflicts a
single war. While the Abadi government has said nothing about the thousands of
Iraqis going to fight in Syria, and has increased cooperation with Damascus it
is unclear whether they would allow its forces to directly move into its
neighbor’s territory.
As the Hashd gained more ground in western Ninewa they
continue to be criticized. The latest came from Haidar Sesho
a Yazidi militia leader. He said that the Hashd was a threat to security and
stability in Sinjar. If they were to free villages and then turn them over to
locals and leave that would be welcomed, but if they stayed they would cause
problems. Sesho’s comments were important because he is not aligned with the Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP) that runs the Sinjar district. All the previous remarks
against the Hashd have come from KDP or KDP aligned officials. In fact, the KDP
arrested Sesho for setting up his own armed force and working with Baghdad. The
two sides have since made a rough détente.
The second Iranian Revolutionary Guard general was killed
in Iraq yesterday assisting the Hashd in the Baaj area. Iran’s Foreign Ministry
commented that it was not
supporting the Hashd in Ninewa, but then said that it was advising the forces.
This was a classic example of double talk denying and confirming its role in
Iraq at the same time. Tehran was the first to aid to Iraq when the Islamic
State seized Mosul in the summer of 2014. It immediately sent in members of the
Revolutionary Guard and Basij, provided attack aircraft and pilots, and even
moved into Diyala in large numbers to secure the border there. Like the
Americans, Baghdad does not admit that there are foreign troops within its
territory, which was why the Foreign Ministry said it was only acting as
advisers.
Aid groups continued to be concerned that there will be a
huge flood of people out of Mosul now that the last push is underway. There are
an estimated
180,000 civilians in the few districts under IS control. In the past few days
the outflow from the city has decreased
to an average of 4,000 per day, compared to over 10,000 last week. At the same
time, a smaller number of people are leaving camps and returning to their home
areas or at least to Mosul until their residences are liberated Over 2,700
departed camps on May 28. There are always people moving in and out of the
city. Lots simply want out of camps where their movement is severely restricted
and there are few jobs. There is also a secondary migration going on as others
who have gone back to Mosul have found life too difficult there with no
employment and services and then left a second time. With the city almost freed
another large movement back is just upon the horizon.
The Ninewa Plains are one of the historic homelands of Iraqi
Christians and they are not waiting for the government to rebuild their
towns. The Pontifical Foundation Aid to the Church in Need’s Commission for the
Reconstruction of Nineveh is organizing workers to reconstruct five towns in
the province. They have a huge task ahead of them as the estimated cost of
repairs of just one home range from $7,000-$65,000 depending upon the damage.
In two towns the group is working in, Telleskof and Bakofa the work will be
light, but in Batnaya 80% of the homes are believed to be destroyed. The
authorities originally claimed they had a reconstruction plan for Ninewa, but
they later admitted they didn’t. Both the provincial and central governments
are also hoping that the United Nations and U.S. led Coalition will foot a
large part of the bill since the government is running a large budget deficit
with low oil prices. That’s not going to happen as Washington has said it will
not be nation building, and the U.N. doesn’t even have money to fund its
current operations in Iraq. That leaves communities to fend for themselves as
these Christian towns are doing. That will mean many areas will remain
destroyed for a long time as funds are scarce all around, and the costs are so
high.
SOURCES
Adhamiyah News, “A
violent street war in old Mosul alley,” 5/29/17
Agence France Presse, “Iraq presses Mosul assault, calls
civilians to flee,” 5/29/17
Ahmed, Shahrazad, “A
Yazidi leader warns the popular crowd: Your stay in Sinjar will complicate the
scene,” Al-Aalem, 5/29/17
Baghdad Post,
“Police kill 26 ISIS terrorists, advance to Mosul’s Zanjili,” 5/29/17
- “Prime Minister
Abadi arrives in Mosul” 5/29/17
Bas News, “14 IS
Militants Killed, Nine Bombed Motorbikes Destroyed in Mosul,” 5/29/17
Chmaytelli, Maher,
“Iran-backed Iraqi force says takes Islamic State villages near Syria,”
Reuters, 5/29/17
Iraq News Network,
“War Media Cell: Thousands of leaflets were dropped on the Old City area of
Mosul,” 5/29/17
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: May 28 & 29, 2017,”
5/30/17
Kakawais, Halo,
“ISIS to make final stand in Old Mosul’s 9 square-km,” Rudaw, 5/29/17
MacDiarmid,
Campbell, “In Mosul, Iraqi commanders say city will be free by June 10,”
Telegraph, 5/29/17
Al Mada, “A cautious advance in Old Mosul and Daash defends
with suicide bombers,” 5/29/17
Mostafa, Nehal, “Fourteen Islamic State militants killed in
Mosul’s Old City: Federal Police,” Iraqi News, 5/29/17
- “Iran-backed Iraqi force says takes IS villages on Syria
border,” Iraqi News, 5/29/17
- “Mosul to be
liberated in week, PM Abadi orders celebration preparations: Sources,” Iraqi
News, 5/29/17
Rudaw, “Shiite force
reaches Iraq-Syria border west of Shingal,” 5/29/17
Salaheddin, Sinan
and Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Iraq paramilitaries reach Iraq’s border with Syria,”
Associated Press, 5/29/17
Sobir, Shoguna,
“Christian Volunteers Rebuilding Their Areas in Nineveh Plain,” Bas News,
5/29/17
Al Sumaria, “Abadi from Mosul: Declaration of victory will
be very soon,” 5/29/17
UN High Commissioner
for Refugees, “Iraq Situation: UNHCR Flash Update – 28 May 2017,” 5/28/17
- “UNHCR and partners increasing shelter options for West
Mosul displaced,” 5/29/17
UN Popular Fund, World Food Programme, UN Children’s Fund,
“Humanitarian partners prepare for a surge of displaced families from west
Mosul,” 5/29/17
Wataniq, “Iran
denies helping the popular crowd in its operations towards the Iraqi-Syrian
border,” 5/29/17
Xinhua, “Iraqi
forces push to Syrian border line to dislodge IS militants,” 5/29/17
- “Iraqi
paramilitary forces free town from IS militants in west of Mosul,” 5/29/17
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