Comparison of Mosul 5/4/17 vs 5/5/17 showing the new thrust
by the Iraqi forces into the northern section of the city (Ninewa Media)
The spokesman for the Iraqi Joint Operations Command General
Yahya Rasool told
the press that the new northern attack upon Mosul caught the Islamic State off
guard. The insurgents were not able to build adequate defenses, which has led
to a swift advance. This is being made by the 9th Division and units
from the Rapid Reaction Division and Federal Police. The police were fighting
in Harmat, which was declared
freed the day before. In the center of west Mosul, the Federal Police were also
pushing
into Zinjali by the Old City. The Iraqis originally claimed this new offensive
started on May 1, but that now appears to not have occurred and was another
example of Iraqi propaganda and exaggeration. The goal is to cut through the
north and reach the Tigris River. The northern front will then connect with the
Iraqi forces in the center, and then take the Old City at the end.
There was another bombing controversy
in Mosul. The Iraqi air force announced it hit a car bomb factory in the July
17 neighborhood of northwest Mosul on May 4. The Islamic State claimed the
building was sheltering displaced families and killed and wounded over 150. A
source in the Federal Police confirmed that story with Al Jazeera. The War
Media Cell denied
that there were any civilians in the area, and released a video of the strike.
It accused members of the media of repeating IS propaganda. Unfortunately, in
these types of situations, the Iraqi government is not a reliable source. It is
official policy to deny any heavy civilian casualties. This happened in the
Jadida air strike incident where the Iraqi forces blamed the story on IS,
denied it happened, and then released two disinformation stories to deceive the
press and public about what happened. This strike could very well have been a
car bomb factory, but the Iraqis or outside sources will have to provide more
proof.
The fighting in Mosul has caused a large amount of
destruction, especially in the west. A member of the Mosul council claimed that
80% of the city’s infrastructure was damaged as a result. These types of
statements can only be rough estimates as the fighting is ongoing, and there
has not been a comprehensive accounting yet.
Rebuilding Mosul and Ninewa in general appears to be based
more upon hope than plans. Ninewa’s Governor Nawfal Hammadi wrote an article
for Foreign
Policy where he stated that the negatives in the process need to be
ignored, and the government’s attempts at reconstruction in Mosul should be
acknowledged. The government is clearing streets, and slowly but surely
restoring basic services like water. Big picture however, there is no real plan
on how to proceed. Kenneth
Pollack of the Brookings Institution travelled to Iraq in April and was
told by Iraqi and U.S. officials that there is no real strategy to rebuild
Ninewa after the Mosul battle is over. Iraqis told him they were hoping the
United Nations and U.S. led Coalition would provide most of the know how and
money. Le
Monde Diplomatique noted that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson let it be
known that the Trump administration will not be doing nation building or
reconstruction. The paper went on to say that politics and budgetary problems
have hindered rebuilding in the province leaving it to local groups to carry
out ad hoc and haphazard work. That could pose problems in the long term
integrating these organization’s goals with that of the state. Despite the
governor’s and other Iraqi official statements, there is no strategy for
putting Ninewa back together. The Iraqi government has a poor track record of
making and then following through with large plans. That is especially hard now
because Baghdad only has money to cover its current bills, and not for any
massive rebuilding project. Until oil prices see a significant rise this
budgetary limitation will continue. Pollack and others are worried that unless
this becomes a systematic process the gains of liberating the city could be
lost as people become frustrated with the situation.
The Mosul Dam opened
for the first time in almost 12 years. The dam was built in 1986 and has been
plagued with problems ever since due to poor construction. In January 2016, the
Water Resources Ministry signed a contract with an Italian company to conduct
repairs, which were finally completed. As a result, the gates were opened and
water was released. This is a notable success story as there have been constant
fears that the dam might collapse. That has hopefully finally been resolved.
People continue to flow out of Mosul. From May 2-3 around
4,000 displaced (IDPs) arrived
at Hamam al-Alil south of the city. Flooding was still a problem. There have
been heavy rains for several weeks, and this has shut down some bridges across
the Tigris. One was closed at the start of May, hindering civilians reaching
Hamam al-Alil. In April, there were more people leaving IDP camps and returning
to areas then new arrivals. That has since been reversed this month. This is
all part of the movement of people in and out of the city, and will likely
continue to fluctuate between the two until the city is completely freed.
Kuwait is one of the only foreign countries providing aid to
the displaced and inside Mosul. The Kuwait Red Crescent delivered
75 tons of food to east Mosul. The country has also brought in aid, and funding
schools and other assistance to the people of Ninewa.
SOURCES
Ahmed, Hunar, “FRONTLINE REPORT: Dodging ISIS snipers in
Western Mosul,” 5/5/17
Baghdad Post, "Security forces liberate 3
neighborhoods in right bank of Mosul," 5/4/17
Coles, Isabel,
“Iraqi forces gain foothold in northwest Mosul after surprise new push,”
Reuters, 5/5/17
Hammadi, Nawfal,
“Here’s How We’re Building a Better Mosul,” Foreign Policy, 5/5/17
Hathalyoum, “Ninewa We Are Coming Announces the liberation
of Mesherfa II, Church and Monastery in West Mosul,” 5/5/17
Iraq News Network,
“Jabouri: 80% destruction in Mosul,” 5/5/17
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: May 5, 2017,” 5/5/17
Al Jazeera, “Mosul:
Iraqi army denies air raid targeted civilians,” 5/5/17
Kuwait News Agency,
“Kuwaiti food aid trickles into Iraq’s Mosul,” 5/4/17
Mostafa, Mohamed, "Police say 30 IS members
killed as troops advance through new Mosul axis," Iraqi News
New Sabah, “Chaos in the ranks of Dash in Mosul as their
families escape with displaced people,”
5/5/17
- “The gates of
Mosul Dam were opened and the water level reached 321 meters,” 5/5/17
- “The joint forces storm the Mesherfa and Haramat in West
Mosul,” 5/5/17
Pollack, Kenneth,
“Dispatch from Iraq: The anti-ISIS fight, economic troubles, and political
maelstrom,” Brookings, 5/5/17
Rojkan, Mira, “New Territorial Gains Against IS in Northwest
Mosul,” Bas News, 5/5/17
Schweitzer, Matthew,
“Rivalries threaten in post-ISIS Mosul,” Le Monde Diplomatique, 5/5/17
Shafaaq News, “Iraqi
authorities respond to agency: those who were killed inside the building in the
right bank of Mosul were members of Daash,” 5/5/17
UN High Commissioner
for Refugees, “Iraq Situation: UNHCR Flash Update – 4 May 2017,” 5/4/17
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