Violence Up In Anbar?

In mid-July 2009 Aswat al-Iraq reported that officials and tribal sheikhs in Anbar were worried about an up-tick in violence in their province. Sheikh Hashim Khalifa blamed the attacks on political factions vying for position before the January 2010 parliamentary elections. He said the provincial security forces were unable to deal with this violence because they were afraid of offending political parties. A former Iraqi Army officer had a slightly different take blaming the political blocs for selecting unqualified personnel to join the security forces. These accusations come in the midst of a drive by the new provincial council to oust the police chief. They voiced similar concerns saying that he has not been able to stop recent attacks, and that his force, while numbering around 28,000 are not qualified. Almost all of the local police and soldiers are made up of tribesman and Awakening members. A review of English language news reports shows that there has been an increase in attacks over the last two months, and a doubling of the number of casualties. In April 2009 there were 11 security incidents resulting in 95 casualties. May like the rest of the country had a large dip with 9 incidents and only 23 casualties. June saw a big jump with 24 attacks and over 82 dead and wounded. July had just about the same number of attacks, 22, and deaths, 33, but a huge increase in wounded, 126. This mirrored casualties in Iraq in general in July with a surge in wounded.

Security Incidents In Anbar April-July 2009

July 09
Attacks/Incidents: 22
Deaths: 33
Wounded: 126

June 09
Attacks/Incidents: 24
Deaths: 29
Wounded: 53+

May 09
Attacks/Incidents: 9
Deaths: 12
Wounded: 11

April 09
Attacks/Incidents: 11
Deaths: 31
Wounded: 64

As for the causes and culprits behind the attacks little is know. The favorite targets are Awakening members and local police. Al Qaeda in Iraq who usually gets blamed for almost all incidents only has a marginal presence left in a few of the province’s cities. Tribal rivalries could also be playing a role as well. The U.S. and Baghdad, because of their weaknesses and inadequacies, largely abrogated the security responsibilities in the province to the tribes, offering them money and jobs in return for their support. This led to the Awakening movement that was always a loose confederation of groups that broke apart into different factions in the 2009 elections. With Anbar turned over to Iraqi control in September 2008 the tribes now have pretty much free sway in Anbar, and their rivalries could be a cause of the violence.

Overall, the number of incidents and casualties in Anbar are still relatively low compared to the more violent areas of central and northern Iraq. At the same time it shows that the sources of attacks have changed in Iraq. Most are no longer based upon sectarian differences, the insurgency has largely been defeated, with most of its fighters having switched sides through the Sons of Iraq, and the Mahdi Army is largely dormant. Political differences and terrorism are some of the main causes of attacks today, as shown in Anbar.

SOURCES

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