Thursday, October 8, 2009

Violence In Mosul Takes A Small Dip

Mosul, Iraq's third largest city and second most violent in the country, saw a slight drop in the number of dead and wounded in September 2009. While deaths have gone up and down each month in Iraq overall, violence has basically stayed the same in Mosul. In September there were an average of 2.40 attacks/security incidents per day, compared to 2.48 in August. The real difference was in the casualty counts. There were an average of 2.16 deaths per day last month and 2.00 wounded. In August there were averages of 3.29 deaths and 5.51 wounded each day. September had the lowest deaths since June 2009 when there were an average of 1.93 per day. It also had the lowest wounded count since this blog started following the issue late last year.

Looked at in the long term, there has been a definite pattern over the last four quarters. In the last three months of 2008 there were an average of 2.41 incidents a day, resulting in 2.53 deaths. The average number of attacks has stayed relatively constant since then, but the average number of deaths dipped to 2.03 in the first quarter of 2009, and 1.92 in the second. Only in the third quarter have deaths gone back up to 2.67 per day, largely due to the 102 killed in August. The averages for the number wounded went up and down from 6.71 per day in the last quarter of 2008, to 4.05 in the first quarter of 2009, to 5.25 in the second quarter, to 4.34 per day in the third quarter of this year.

The constant fatalities in the city have led Baghdad to launch its latest security operation in the city called Ninewa Wall on October 1. It's the fourth since 2008, and the first to not include American forces. None of the previous ones has had much of an effect upon casualties in Mosul however. By October 5, more than 200 suspects had been picked up.The provincial council has complained about the operation, saying that they were not informed of it beforehand. A member of the council also said that many of those that have been picked up had no criminal records.

Mosul and Ninewa in general, remain unstable for several reasons. First, insurgents were pushed there during the Surge. Second, it is along one of the main thoroughfares for foreign fighters and money coming from Syria to enter Iraq. Third, the argument between Arabs and Kurds over disputed areas in the province has only increased in recent years. Fourth, Kurdish peshmerga forces occupy part of Mosul and northern regions of Ninewa, to the consternation of many Arabs who consider them occupiers and expansionists. This has allowed the insurgents to portray themselves as protectors of the local Arabs against the Kurds' ambitions, and to take advantage of the security gaps that exist in the city and province between Iraqi and Kurdish troops. Because of all these issues, Mosul is likely to remain unstable for the foreseeable future.

Attack Statistics In Mosul Based Upon Press Reports


Attacks/ Incidents

Avg. # Of Attacks/ Incidents

Deaths

Avg. # Of Deaths

Wounded

Avg. # Of Wounded

2008







Oct.

92

2.96

112

3.61

188

6.06

Nov.

65

2.16

53

1.76

249

8.3

Dec.

65

2.09

68

2.19

181

5.83

2009







Jan.

52

1.67

56

1.80

56

2.74

Feb.

81

2.89

58

2.00

111

3.96

March

86

2.77

69

2.22

169

5.45

April

79

2.63

53

1.76

191

6.36

May

83

3.06

64

2.06

164

4.70

June

73

2.43

58

1.93

123

4.10

July

73

2.35

79

2.54

169

5.45

Aug.

77

2.48

102

3.29

171

5.51

Sep.

72

2.40

65

2.16

60

2.00

2008 4th Quarter Avg.

74.00/ month

2.41/day

77.66/ month

2.53/ day

206.00/ month

6.71/day

2009 1st Quarter Avg.

73.00/ month

2.43/day

61.00/ month

2.03/ day

121.66/ month

4.05/day

2009 2nd Quarter Avg.

78.30/ month

2.58/day

58.30/ month

1.92/ day

159.33/ month

5.25/day

2009 3rd Quarter Avg.

74.00/ month

2.41/day

82.00/ month

2.67/ day

133.33/ month

4.34/day


SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq policeman, soldier killed in north,” 9/23/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 civilians wounded by sticky bomb in Mosul,” 9/8/09
- “2 IEDs wound soldiers, civilian in Mosul,” 9/2/09
- “4 civilians killed, wounded in Mosul blast,” 9/23/09
- “Blast kills policeman, wounds another in Mosul,” 9/23/09
- “Body found in Mosul,” 9/17/09
- “Bomb targets house of college professor in Mosul,” 9/30/09
- “Car mechanic shot down in Mosul,” 9/2/09
- “Civilian wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 9/27/09
- “Cop killed, 3 injured in Mosul,” 9/29/09
- “Cop, sons killed, wounded in Ninewa blast,” 9/7/09
- “Disabled policeman injured in eastern Mosul,” 9/28/09
- “Girl, her mother wounded in Mosul,” 9/2/09
- “Gunmen cops killed in clashes with U.S. forces in Mosul,” 9/14/09
- “Gunmen kill former policeman in Mosul,” 9/16/09
- “Gunmen killed while attempting to shoot down traffic cop,” 9/9/09
- “Gunmen shoot down civilian in Mosul,” 9/5/09
- “Gunmen storm mosque, kill 2 prayers in Mosul,” 9/1/09
- “Gunmen wound traffic cop in Mosul,” 9/15/09
- “IED blast kills child, wounds 2 in Mosul,” 9/19/09
- “IED blast targets Ninewa judge’s house,” 9/25/09
- “IED kills, wounds 4 cops in Mosul,” 9/28/09
- “IED wounds 3 soldiers in Mosul,” 9/8/09
- “IED wounds soldier, civilian in Mosul,” 9/16/09
- “Iraqi soldier gunned down in northern Mosul,” 9/14/09
- “Iraqi soldier killed in central Mosul,” 9/19/09
- “Iraqi soldier killed in eastern Mosul,” 9/8/09
- “NOC: Fresh security operations in Mosul,” 10/4/09
- “Officer killed, 7 cops wounded in Mosul blast,” 9/14/09
- “Over 200 arrested under Mosul’s fresh security operations,” 10/5/09

- “Police find body in eastern Mosul,” 9/23/09
- “Policeman killed, child wounded in Ninewa,” 9/3/09
- “Policeman killed in Mosul attack,” 9/6/09
- “Sticky bomb kills army officer, wounds 2 civilians in Mosul,” 9/9/09
- “Traffic cop killed in Mosul blast,” 9/12/09
- “Woman killed, daughter wounded by IED in Mosul,” 9/14/09

DPA, “Report: Four Kurdish militiamen found executed in northern Iraq,” 9/28/09

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Thursday 03 September 2009,” 9/3/09

Griffiths, Kathie, “Bradford-based relief agency worker killed,” Telegraph & Argus, 9/11/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 6 September 2009,” 9/6/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 27 September 2009,” 9/27/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 1 September 2009,” 9/1/09

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 4 September 2009,” 9/4/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 23 September 2009,” 9/23/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 6,” 9/6/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 8,” 9/8/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 12,” 9/12/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 13,” 9/13/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 17,” 9/17/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 24,” 9/24/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 25,” 9/25/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 26,” 9/26/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 27,” 9/27/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 28,” 9/28/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 30,” 9/30/09

Rising, David, “Bombs at Shiite shrine kill 4 Iraqis,” Associated Press, 9/13/09

Williams, Timothy, “U.S. surveillance drone crashes in Iraq,” New York Times, 9/27/09

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