Average Daily Casualties In Iraq Drop In June 2010

As in previous months, the four organizations that cover deaths in Iraq, Iraq Body Count, icasualties.org, Iraq's ministries, and the Associated Press, showed mixed trends. As always, Iraq Body Count recorded the highest number of deaths for June at 379 compared to 370 in May. They were the only group that showed a steady increase in monthly deaths in 2010. In January for example, they noted 258 deaths, going up to 296 in February, 311 in March, 376 in April, before slightly dropping to 370 in May. Iraq Body Count regularly revises their initial numbers down after they go through their sources, so June's mark may decline as well. Icasualties had the fewest deaths at 176 in June compared to 279 in May. They tend to solely rely upon Western reports, and ignore English language Iraqi sources like Aswat al-Iraq that track daily security incidents. On their site they note that the actual number of Iraqi deaths are much higher than their count. In 2009 a monthly pattern emerged where casualties would go up and down every month. The Associated Press is the only organization that continues to report that trend. In January 2010 they had 177 deaths, going up to 255 in February, down to 230 in March, up to 321 in April, declining to 278 in May, before increasing to 294 in June. 

Iraqi deaths are at the lowest level since 2003, and are unlikely to see any serious change in the near-term. The average number of deaths in Iraq has been going up since the beginning of the year, but is just below the rate set in 2009. In January 2010 there was an average of 6.1 Iraqis killed per day. By June that rate had gone up to 9.4 per day. In the first six months of the year there have been an average of 9.2 Iraqi casualties per day, compared to 10.5 in 2009. Also warnings about increased violence due to political stalemate over forming a new government are only partially true. The average number of deaths went up the month after the March 2010 parliamentary elections, but have been inching downward since then. Overall, Iraq has hit what some military analysts have called the "irreducible minimum." Casualties are unlikely to see any sizeable change for the foreseeable future until there is a shakeup in the current status quo. Previous sea changes have been the Anbar tribes turning against Al Qaeda in Iraq, the U.S. Surge, the formation of the Sons of Iraq, Moqtada al-Sadr's cease-fire, and high Sunni participation in the 2009 provincial elections. Until another such event happens Iraq will continue to see the daily attacks and deaths that it is currently experiencing.

Monthly Death Counts

Month	Iraq Body Count	Icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Associated Press	Avg. Deaths Per Day
Jan. 10	258	135	196	177	6.1
Feb.	296	236	352	255	10.1
Mar.	311	183	367	230	8.7
Apr.	376	259	328	321	10.7
May	370	279	337	278	10.3
June	379	176	284	294	9.4
1st 6 Months 2010	331.6	211.3	310.6	259.1	9.2

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, "Iraq death toll falls sharply in June: ministries," 6/30/10

Associated Press, "Iraq: Key figures since the war began," 7/1/10

Cordesman, Anthony, "Victory And Violence In Iraq: Reducing the 'irreducible minimum,'" Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2/25/08

icasualties

Iraq Body Count