July 2011 Sees Slight Drop In Deaths In Iraq

Aftermath of bombing on a Baghdad restaurant, July 16, 2011 (Associated Press)

All three major agencies that track casualties in Iraq recorded a decline from June to July 2011. Iraq Body Count had deaths drop from 386 in June to 307 in July. Iraq’s Defense, Interior, and Health Ministries had 271 dead in June and 259 in July. Icasualties went from 204 in June to 184 in July. That averaged out to 250 killed for July compared to 282 in June. An average of 8.0 Iraqis were killed per day last month. That was on par with May that had 8.1, but below 9.4 for July, which was the highest average for the year. In all categories then deaths went down last month.

Monthly Iraqi Death Counts And Averages 2011

Month	Iraq Body Count	Icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan.	387	210	259	285	9.2
Feb.	250	216	167	212	7.5
Mar.	307	171	247	241	7.7
Apr.	285	152	211	214	7.1
May	378	223	177	252	8.1
Jun.	386	204	271	282	9.4
Jul.	307	184	259	250	8.0

The last three months have seen more casualties than the previous three however. As reported before, deaths have picked up each summer for the last two years. In the first six months of 2011 however, the number of attacks have not gone up. From January to June there were an average of 380 security incidents per month in Iraq. In January, there were 376 attacks showing that there has not been much of an increase since the beginning of the year. Most of these attacks happen in just six provinces in the country, Ninewa, Tamim, Diyala, Anbar, Salahaddin, and Baghdad, which is where the insurgency is most active. There has also been a huge increase in Iranian-supported Special Group activity aimed at American bases and patrols from Baghdad down to southern Iraq. Iran and its Shiite allies want to claim responsibility for the U.S. withdrawal that is due at the end of the year. That has led to a dramatic increase in American deaths in the last two months, but there hasn’t appeared to be much collateral damage as a result.

(Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction)

Click on image for larger view (Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction)

 What these numbers show is that the recent spate of articles that claimed Iraq was more dangerous this year than last are actually false. In July 2010 for example, there was an average of 16.1 Iraqis killed per day, just over double last month’s count. Attacks have continued to decline as well from 2010 to 2011. What the newspapers misinterpreted was that attacks on Americans have gone up, but that has not affected Iraqis. Violence today in the country is becoming more and more political and more targeted, whether it be aimed at U.S. forces or members of the Iraqi police, army, and bureaucracy. That means the average citizen does not see much violence anymore. In fact, with security incidents concentrated in central Iraq, that leaves the nation’s twelve other provinces largely peaceful unless there happens to be a U.S. military base nearby. Iraq still sees far more death and destruction than it should, but the security situation there today is dramatically different than any other period since the 2003 invasion.  

SOURCES

Faraj, Salman, “Iraq death toll for July second highest on 2011,” Agence France Presse, 8/1/11

Icasualties, “Operation Iraqi Freedom”

Iraq Body Count, “Recent Events”

Knights, Michael, “The JRTN Movement and Iraq’s Next Insurgency,” CTC Sentinel, July 2011

O’Keefe, Ed, “Iraq more dangerous than a year ago, U.S. review finds,” Washington Post, 7/30/11

Reuters, “Iraq civilian deaths in July match highest for 2011,” 8/1/11