Deaths See Large Drop In Iraq From January To February 2012

After a series of articles warning that violence in Iraq was increasing, and that the country might be on the verge of a new civil war, the number of deaths was cut nearly in half in February 2012. Rather than marking a new trend in security, January’s high casualties were simply a result of the large number of targets available during the Shiite pilgrimage of Arbayeen to Karbala, and insurgents trying to make a statement after the U.S. troop withdrawal in December 2011. With only one mass casualty bombing, and an especially bloody day when militants were able to carry out attacks in seven provinces, February returned to the norm of monthly casualties.

Two of the three organizations that record Iraqi deaths saw a large drop from January to February. Iraq Body Count’s early total for February was 278, compared to 464 killed in January, a 40% drop. The United Nations’ Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit recorded 229 deaths in February, down from 500 in January, a decline of 54%. Only the Iraqi government showed no real change with Iraq’s Health, Defense, and Interior Ministries claiming 150 people were killed in February, only one less than January. Baghdad has consistently had the lowest death figures for months now. The extremely low death count for January after there were four deadly bombings that month that killed 186 people alone according to press accounts, highlights the fact that either the Ministries are not getting all of the casualty figures or they are purposely keeping them down for political reasons. Currently the security portfolio is under the control of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. All together, all three numbers averaged out to 219 deaths for the month, and 7.5 deaths per day. Those were both below the averages for 2011, which stood at 298 casualties per month and 9.7 a day, and far below January’s averages of 369 killed, and 11.9 per day.

Deaths In Iraq 2011-2012

Month	Iraq Body Count	Iraqi Ministries	United Nations	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan. 2011	387	259	265	303	9.7
Feb.	250	167	267	228	8.1
Mar.	307	247	268	274	8.8
Apr.	285	211	279	258	8.6
May	378	177	319	291	9.3
Jun.	385	271	424	360	12.0
Jul.	305	259	381	315	10.1
Aug.	398	239	455	364	11.7
Sep.	394	185	405	328	10.9
Oct.	355	258	416	343	11.0
Nov.	272	187	264	241	8.0
Dec.	371	155	313	279	9.0
TOTALS	4,125	1,591	4,056	-	-
2011 Mo. Avg.	343	217	338	298	9.7
Jan. 2012	458	151	500	369	11.9
Feb.	278	150	229	219	7.5

Attacks In Iraq 2011-2012

Month	Attacks	Avg. Daily Attacks
Jan. 2011	416	13.4
Feb.	358	12.7
Mar.	565	18.2
Apr.	483	16.1
May	561	18.0
Jun.	545	18.1
Jul.	404	13.0
Aug.	376	12.1
Sep.	283	9.1
Oct.	406	13.0
Nov.	268	8.0
Dec.	293	9.4
TOTALS	4,958	-
2011 Mo. Avg.	413.1	13.4
Jan. 2012	330	10.6
Feb.	278	9.5

Scene of the bombing outside the Baghdad Police Academy, Feb. 19, 2012 (AFP)

Whether Iraq’s casualty numbers go up or down are largely shaped by the number of large bombings that occur. In February, there was only one such incident, when a suicide car bomber struck the Baghdad Police Academy on February 19, which left 19 casualties. There was also an especially bloody day on February 23 when insurgents were able to carry out attacks in 17 cities across seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces. That resulted in 83 deaths, and hundreds wounded, coming from five roadside bombs, four car bombs, two shootings, a grenade attack, and a drive by shooting in Baghdad, three car bombs and two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Babil, four IEDs, two car bombs, two shootings, and several roadside bombings in Diyala, three car bombs and shootings in Salahaddin, a shooting, and IED in Anbar, two mortar shells in Ninewa, and two car bombs in Tamim. That compared to four major attacks in January that resulted in 186 deaths. In total, there were 278 attacks last month, compared to 330 in January, a 15% drop. That broke down to 52 in Diyala, 47 in Baghdad and Ninewa each, 32 in Babil, 28 in Tamim, 26 in Salahaddin, 18 in Anbar, six in Qadisiyah, four in Basra and Wasit each, three in Dhi Qar, Irbil, and Maysan, and one in Dohuk, Karbala, Muthanna, Najaf, and Sulaymaniya respectively. That meant every single governorate saw violence, but 224 of those incidents, 80% of the total were in just seven of them. As usual, IEDs were the weapons of choice, accounting for 170 attacks, followed by 57 shootings, 29 car bombs, 13 grenades being thrown, and nine rockets/mortars. The main difference between February and January was that the latter was politically significant, and was the month of Arbayeen when thousands of people from Iraq and Shiite communities around the world travel to Karbala. That meant January was a target rich environment with Shiite pilgrims nearly everywhere in the country. Militants also wanted to make a statement that they were still active and deadly after the United States withdrew its forces. That’s why there were so many mass casualty attacks in Iraq at the beginning of the year. Iraqi insurgents have also not been able to maintain this pace of operations for more than a few months. They probably expended most of their supplies, and need a matter of weeks to reload before they can carry out a large number of attacks once again.

The leftover of a car bomb in Baquba, Diyala on Feb. 23, the deadliest day of the month when 83 people were killed across the country (Reuters)

Deadliest Days In February 2012

Feb. 19 – 28 killed total

            - 19 killed in bombing of Baghdad Police Academy

Feb. 23 – 83 killed total

            - 33 killed in Baghdad

            - 19 killed in Diyala

            - 15 killed in Salahaddin

            - 7 killed in Tamim

            - 5 killed in Babil

- 3 killed in Ninewa

            - 1 killed in Anbar

Deadliest Days In January 2012
Jan. 5 – 77 killed total
    - 28 killed in Baghdad
    - 45 killed in Dhi Qar
Jan. 14 – 68 killed total
    - 65 killed in Basra
Jan. 27 – 41 killed total
    - 35 killed in Baghdad

February 2012 Attacks By Province

Diyala 52

Baghdad 47

Ninewa 47

Babil 32

Tamim 28

Salahaddin 26

Anbar 18

Qadisiyah 6

Basra 4

Wasit 4

Dhi Qar 3

Irbil 3

Maysan 3

Dohuk 1

Karbala1

Muthanna 1

Najaf 1

Sulaymaniya 1

Types of Attacks

170 IEDs

57 small arms fire

29 car bombs

13 grenades

9 rockets/mortars

The press has a bad tendency to focus upon the violence in Iraq. When they do, they often do not place the latest incident in much context of whether attacks and casualties are going up or down. January’s media coverage was especially egregious, because as the month went on, the tone became more and more dire with warning after warning about Iraq returning to civil war, and sectarian tensions increasing. The fact that the month’s casualties and attacks were not much higher than the top figures seen in 2011 for example, was not noted. The faulty predictions were put into stark contrast when February’s counts were released, and deaths and attacks were both down. Unfortunately, the next time there is a string of big bombings in Iraq, media outlets are likely to repeat the same mistakes they made at the beginning of this year.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “150 Iraqis killed in February attacks: ministries,” 3/1/12

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Security In Iraq”

Iraq Body Count

Reuters, “Security developments in Iraq, Feb 23,” 2/23/12