Attacks Up, But Casualties Down In Iraq In May 2012

Iraq saw contradictory trends in May 2012. First, the summer months are approaching and militants are picking up their operations as a result. That led to a rise in attacks. At the same time, the average number of deaths for the month saw a decline. As the temperatures continue to climb in Iraq however, both figures are likely to go up as they have every year since 2003.

Two out of the three groups that track Iraqi casualties saw decreases in May 2012. Iraq Body Count has seen a three month decline going from 320 in March to 309 in April, and 207 in May. The United Nation’s Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit’s numbers have gone up and down from 294 in March to 320 in April, and then going down to 285 in May. Both organizations later revise their numbers, and they have always gone up. Iraq’s Health, Interior, and Defense Ministries continued to have far lower figures. They have seen a steady increase going from 112 in March to 126 in April to 132 in May. Unlike the other two, the Iraqi government has never published any corrections to its numbers. As reported before, the fact that the official numbers are so low, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is the acting Defense and Interior Minister likely means that the figures are being kept down for political reasons. The premier likes to claim that he has secured the country, and one way to show that is to have very small death counts each month.

Bombing in the Shula area of Baghdad on May 31, which was the deadliest day of the month (Reuters)

Deaths In Iraq 2011-2012

Month	Iraq Body Count	Iraqi Ministries	United Nations	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan. 2011	387	259	265	303	9.7
Feb.	250	167	267	228	8.1
Mar.	307	247	268	274	8.8
Apr.	285	211	279	258	8.6
May	378	177	319	291	9.3
Jun.	385	271	424	360	12.0
Jul.	305	259	381	315	10.1
Aug.	398	239	455	364	11.7
Sep.	394	185	405	328	10.9
Oct.	355	258	416	343	11.0
Nov.	272	187	264	241	8.0
Dec.	371	155	313	279	9.0
TOTALS	4,125	1,591	4,056	-	-
2011 Mo. Avg.	343	217	338	298	9.7
Jan. 2012	464	151	500	371	11.9
Feb.	293	150	254	232	8.0
Mar.	320	112	294	242	7.8
Apr.	309	126	320	251	8.3
May	207	132	285	208	6.7

Attacks In Iraq 2011-2012

Month	Attacks	Avg. Daily Attacks
Jan. 2011	416	13.4
Feb.	358	12.7
Mar.	565	18.2
Apr.	483	16.1
May	561	18.0
Jun.	545	18.1
Jul.	404	13.0
Aug.	376	12.1
Sep.	283	9.1
Oct.	406	13.0
Nov.	268	8.0
Dec.	293	9.4
TOTALS	4,958	-
2011 Mo. Avg.	413.1	13.4
Jan. 2012	330	10.6
Feb.	299	10.3
Mar.	239	7.7
Apr.	301	10.0
May	329	10.6

The average number of deaths also saw a drop in May after staying relatively stable for the previous three months. Last month, there were an average of 208 deaths per month. That was below January’s 371, February’s 232, March’s 242, and April’s 251, placing May as the lowest casualty count so far. The same was true for the average number of fatalities a day with just 6.7 in May, compared to 8.3 in April, 7.8 in March, 8.0 in February, and 11.9 in January. When Iraq Body Count and the United Nations update their numbers those averages will go up, but unless there is a large jump in the new figures, May is likely to stay one of the low points in deaths for the year.

Attacks have been going in the opposite direction. In May the U.N. counted 329 attacks, up from 301 in April, 239 in March, 299 in February, and only one less than the 330 in January. That led to an average of ten or more security incidents for four out of 2012’s five months. The trend in Iraq since the 2003 American invasion has been for there to be a jump in attacks in January as Sunni militants go after Shiites during their yearly pilgrimage that month, then for security to improve until the summer approaches, and insurgents launch an extended campaign while the weather is hot that eventually ends when winter arrives. That means the number of attacks will go up over the coming days if militants stay true to form.

Last month may turn out to be the calm before the storm. Deaths have stayed relatively low for four out of the first five months of the year. The heat is quickly approaching however, and so is the regular summer campaign of the insurgents. Today, Iraq has reached what U.S. commanders used to call the “irreducible minimum.” They meant violence had reached a nadir, which could not improve without major political compromises and changes within the country. The American military did withdraw in December 2011. The affects of that have not been felt yet, but it could result in a very small reduction in the level of militant operations. The coming months will show whether that will bring about any real changes in Iraq’s security situation.

SOURCES

Cordesman, Anthony, “Victory And Violence In Iraq: Reducing the ‘Irreducible Minimum,’” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2/25/08

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Security in Iraq”

Iraq Body Count

Yacoub, Sameer, “Iraqi figures show slight growth in death toll,” Associated Press, 6/2/12