For the last three years the number of deaths in Iraq has
increased in January. Usually this coincided with Shiite pilgrimages, but this
year it was an increase in attacks upon the general population and the security
forces.
January 2013 saw an increase in fatalities from December
2012. Iraq Body Count in its early report had 341 people killed in January, up from 272 in December. Agence France Presse has started its own record of
deaths, and had 246 in January compared to 144 in December. The Iraqi
government reported a decreases going from 208 in December to 177 in January. For the last several years Baghdad’s official numbers have been decidedly
lower than Iraq Body Count’s. The government does not provide any details on
its figures, so there’s no way to tell what they are counting and what they are
not. A likely reason for the difference is politics, because Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki controls both the Interior and Defense Ministries, which are
two of the three main sources for information on casualties.
Deaths In Iraq 2011-2013
Month
|
Iraq Body Count
|
Iraqi Ministries
|
Avg. Monthly Deaths
|
Avg. Daily Deaths
|
Jan. 2011
|
389
|
259
|
324
|
10.4
|
Feb.
|
252
|
167
|
209
|
7.4
|
Mar.
|
308
|
247
|
277
|
8.9
|
Apr.
|
287
|
211
|
249
|
8.3
|
May
|
379
|
177
|
278
|
8.9
|
Jun.
|
386
|
271
|
328
|
10.9
|
Jul.
|
307
|
259
|
283
|
9.1
|
Aug.
|
400
|
239
|
319
|
10.2
|
Sep.
|
397
|
185
|
291
|
9.7
|
Oct.
|
365
|
258
|
311
|
10.3
|
Nov.
|
278
|
187
|
232
|
7.7
|
Dec.
|
388
|
155
|
271
|
8.7
|
2011 Mo. Avg.
|
344
|
217
|
306
|
9.2
|
2011 Totals
|
4,136
|
2,615
|
-
|
-
|
Jan. 2012
|
524
|
151
|
337
|
10.8
|
Feb.
|
356
|
150
|
253
|
8.7
|
Mar.
|
376
|
112
|
244
|
7.8
|
Apr.
|
392
|
126
|
259
|
8.6
|
May
|
304
|
132
|
218
|
7.0
|
Jun.
|
529
|
131
|
330
|
11.0
|
Jul.
|
466
|
325
|
395
|
12.7
|
Aug.
|
422
|
164
|
293
|
9.4
|
Sep.
|
396
|
365
|
380
|
12.6
|
Oct.
|
290
|
144
|
217
|
7.0
|
Nov.
|
238
|
166
|
202
|
6.7
|
Dec.
|
272
|
208
|
240
|
7.7
|
2012 Mo. Avg.
|
378
|
178
|
278
|
9.1
|
2012 Totals
|
4,557
|
2,174
|
-
|
-
|
Jan. 2013
|
341
|
177
|
259
|
8.3
|
A man wounded at the Jan. 23 bombing of a funeral in Tuz
Khurmato (Reuters)
January’s increase marks a recent trend in Iraqi violence.
In 2011 and 2012, Al Qaeda in Iraq went after Shiite pilgrims, which accounted
for an uptick in deaths in January compared to the previous month. This year
the number of deaths went up as well, but it was because of attacks upon a variety of targets. On January 3, there was a car bombing in Musayib in northern Babil province that targeted Shiite pilgrims heading for
Karbala that left 27 dead. On January 16, a bomb went off in front of the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s offices in Kirkuk, that killed 21, and
wounded 154. On January 17, a series of car bombs, improvised explosive devices
(IEDs), gunfire and mortars led to 34 fatalities across Karbala, Salahaddin, Baghdad, Diyala, and Ninewa provinces. January 22 was very similar with 31 killed in ten different cities and towns. On January 23, a suicide bomber attacked a Turkmen funeral in Tuz Khurmato, Salahaddin that left 43 dead. It was this
combination of small scale attacks and mass casualty bombings that accounted
for the rise in deaths in January.
This represents the new trend in attacks in Iraq. January
sees an increase then there is a drop until the summer months when violence
goes up, until they go back down at the end of the year. Although still capable
of very deadly attacks, the Iraqi insurgency is no longer able to maintain a
high level of operations year around. For about half of the year they are very
active. That drops for the other half, as they have to resupply and plan for
the next round of bombings and shootings. The security forces are no longer
carrying out counterinsurgency operations that might prevent these attacks, so
for the foreseeable future this pattern will continue.
SOURCES
Adnan, Duraid, “Bombing at a Funeral in Northern Iraq Kills
at Least 35,” New York Times, 1/23/13
Agence France
Presse, “Iraq casualties from violence (December 2012)”
- “Iraq
casualties from violence (January 2013)”
- “Iraq
Figures Show Violence Down in January,” 2/3/13
Aswat
al-Iraq, “21 killed, 154 wounded final toll of Kirkuk explosions,” 1/16/13
- “Car bomb
kills 13, wounds 57 in Babel,” 1/3/13
- “Casualties
of Babel bombing attack rise to 80,” 1/3/13
Iraq Body Count
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