Ten months since the protests started in Anbar in December
2012 it now appears that a political deal might be cut to end them. Speaker
Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun Party has gone from one of their biggest supporters to
now wanting to end them, while Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki is under pressure to make some concessions given the deteriorating
security situation in the country. The change in mood has been seen over the
last two months as the premier has met with various Anbar notables including
Governor Ahmed Diab and Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha the head of the Awakening. It’s
far from clear whether any meaningful will come from these talks, but the
effort is under way to conclude the demonstrations.
In October 2013 factions within the protest movement decided
to hold negotiations with Baghdad. On October 3 newly elected Governor Ahmed
Diab from the Mutahidun Party was appointed as the demonstrators’ representative. That was welcomed by the central government, which said that the governor
was a legitimate official of the province and therefore had the authority to
speak with the premier. Shortly afterward Maliki met with Diab in Baghdad. Mutahidun was one of the key political allies for the protest movement
after it started. Now that it took Anbar in this year’s provincial balloting
however it appears that it is interested in other matters and willing to
discuss a way to shut down the demonstrations.
In November there were more announcements of meetings
between Anbar notables and the central government. At the beginning of the
month Maliki sent an invitation to Anbar Governor Diab to come to Baghdad once
again. The head of the Anbar provincial council said that he and other members
had been asked to meet with the premier as well. There was even a story
reported in the press that Maliki would be coming to Anbar, but that was later
denied. There was also news that the prime minister would recognize Sheikh
Abu Risha as the head of the Awakening. In the summer of 2012 Baghdad tried to
split the movement by appointing Sheikh Wisam Abdul Ibrahim Hardan the new head
of the Awakening. That was done because Abu Risha was one of the major backers
of the protests. Abu Risha and Maliki did meet on November 7, but all that
came of it was that the sheikh asked the government to support the security
forces rather than militias. One of the major themes of the demonstrators over
the last few months was that Baghdad was using Shiite militias to terrorize
Sunnis. There have been attempts to reconcile with the Anbar Operations Command
as well, which has been the focus of many complaints by locals. The provincial
council met with the head of the Command as well as officers of the security
forces and called for the end of arbitrary arrests. The Operations Command
freed a few prisoners as a good will gesture afterward. The council members
claimed that the Awakening would be incorporated into future security operations.
Parliamentarian Izzat Shabandar from Maliki’s State of Law told the media that
Baghdad had already reached an agreement with Anbar’s tribes and local leaders.
The lawmaker claimed that he had met with former Finance Minister and now vice
chairman of Mutahidun Rafi Issawi twice to allow for his return. Arrest
warrants for Issawi’s bodyguards was what originally sparked the protests in
Anbar in December 2012 and led to his eventual resignation from government.
That report was said to be false too. There is obviously a flurry of
activity going on between the provincial and central governments. One problem
is determining whether all of these stories are true or not. The one about
Maliki going to Anbar has already been denied for example, and there have been
plenty of others about Baghdad and Issawi reconciling, but nothing has come of
them. The fact that the two sides are talking however is a positive sign that
at least Mutahidun and perhaps Abu Risha are interested in coming to some kind
of understanding with Baghdad. In eleven months the protests have achieved
nothing substantive, but perhaps these meetings can bring something about.
At the same time there is plenty of criticism coming from
within Anbar about this initiative. First, the protesters are not a unified
group consisting of many different organizations with various agendas. Some
immediately criticized Governor Diab’s appointment for instance claiming he
didn’t represent them. Deputy head of the Anbar council Saleh Issawi was quoted
in Al-Mada saying that Maliki was not serious about cooperating on security. A Mutahidun politician stated that the prime minister was only interested
in holding onto power, and that these talks were simply a way for him to
improve his image before the 2014 elections. A council member from Fallujah
expressed skepticism that anything would come from these negotiations as former
Governor Khadim Mohammed Faris Fahadawi had gone to Baghdad to discuss the
demonstrator’s demands and nothing happened afterward. There are plenty of reasons
to be skeptical. On the one hand, the demonstrators are made up of various
groups that do not share the same agenda. If Mutahidun is able to make a deal
with Baghdad that does not mean that all the protests will end. It’s also
unclear whether Maliki is willing and able to make any real concessions. Many
of the protest demands such as ending the anti-terrorism law or amending the
deBaathification process would require an act of parliament and that’s not
going to happen given the current political climate.
There has definitely been a change in Anbar at least
politically. Mutahidun has now secured control of the province and wants to
move onto other issues, and would like to see the demonstrations end. Maliki is
being pressured to come up with some sort of solution to the growing violence
in the country, and working out a deal with Anbar might help with that. The
Awakening for example could help fight insurgents. This is the impetus behind
the recent wave of meetings between Governor Diab, Sheikh Abu Risha, and the
planned visit of a delegation from the Anbar council to Baghdad. If the pace of
talks continues at this level there’s a good chance that something could be
worked out. There’s a question about what Maliki can offer, and whether all
those in Anbar will listen, but the will appears to be there on Mutahidun and
State of Law’s part to figure out some kind of compromise. If Mutahidun can
then talk their followers to abandon the protests perhaps the rest will
eventually follow too.
SOURCES
Abbas, Mushreq, “Iraq’s Sunni Protesters Divided Over
Government Negotiations,” Al-Monitor, 10/14/13
AIN, “Anbar Governor: Government, Demonstrators willing to
settle demonstrations file,” 11/8/13
- “Maliki adviser: The Prime Minister did not cost Shabandar
any role on the issue of al-Issawi,” 11/10/13
- “Urgent…Head of Anbar PC: Maliki to meet Anbar PC over
demonstrators’ demands,” 11/5/13
Al-Mada, “Abu Risha Maliki calls for supporting “Iraqi
forces” in Anbar and confirms: Awakening just new names and fake,” 11/7/13
- “Anbar Provincial Council confirms that it “will not talk
politics” during his meeting with al-Maliki and united asking him to “correct
his mistakes,”” 11/9/13
National Iraqi News Agency, “Maliki sends a formal
invitation to the Government of Anbar to visit Baghdad,” 11/5/13
- “Maliki’s Advisor: Maliki’s meeting with Anbar’s governor
was positive and fruitful,” 10/7/13
New Sabah, “Anbar delegate their portfolios to fight
negotiations,” 10/5/13
- “Painful blows to second base and the awakening of the
clans,” 11/5/13
Shafaq News, “Close to Maliki denies the latter’s intention
to visit Anbar,” 11/9/13
- “Leader in State of law reveals “understandings” with
local and tribal leaders in Anbar,” 11/9/13
- “Sources: Maliki in Anbar soon and agreement with Abu
Risha,” 11/5/13
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