Stalemate In Iraq’s Anbar Province

 

At the very end of December 2013 fighting started in Iraq’s Anbar province. The cause was Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s ill timed decision to shut down the Ramadi demonstration site and arrest parliamentarian Ahmed Alwani of the Iraqi Islamic Party who had been one of the protest leaders. Immediately afterward a variety of insurgent and tribal groups moved into Ramadi and Fallujah and the shooting started. Since then local officials and Baghdad have constantly claimed that the province outside of Fallujah is secure and announced initiative after initiative to end the conflict. Those offers have all failed and the fighting is in fact deadlocked.

The crisis in Anbar started with a miscalculation by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. On December 21 the leadership of the 7^th Division were killed in an ambush set by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) in Adham near the Ninewa border. The premier immediately ordered a massive military crackdown in Anbar that rallied most of the country behind the armed forces. By December 29, 2013 ground forces commander General Ali Ghidan claimed that ISIS had been cleared out of Anbar and were fleeing to Ninewa. (1) Sensing victory Maliki then made a huge mistake by deciding to take on his political opponents in the governorate. December 30 he ordered the Ramadi protest site be shut down. Fighting immediately broke out with 10 dead, 7 gunmen and 3 police, and 39 wounded, 25 militants and 14 soldiers in Ramadi, and 4 insurgents and 1 policeman being injured in Fallujah. The clashes carried over to the next day in Fallujah, and Ramadi where a police station was taken over by militants, and then spread to Haditha and Baghdadi where army bases were overrun. January 1, 2014 the police headquarters in Fallujah was raided, the weapons taken, and over 100 prisoners freed, along with two other police stations in the city. The mayor’s office was also bombed. In Ramadi, four stations were burned, and the security forces were said to have fled the city. There was also fighting in Garmah. In just three days the heart of Anbar province was in flames. Maliki completely misread the situation when he decided to turn a popular campaign against the Islamic State into a political move against the protest movement. Many people in Anbar were already angry with the government, which was shown in 12 months of demonstrations. When the government cracked down on them it gave the militants the perfect excuse to step in, and many tribes quickly joined them who were fed up with Baghdad.

Many press reports and the Iraqi government liked to blame all the fighting in Anbar on ISIS, but they were one of many groups involved in the conflict. The Islamic State did move into Fallujah and Ramadi at least by January 1. A journalist for Agence France Presse said that he heard ISIS songs being played in Ramadi on that day, while the New York Times reported that the Islamic State called for fighters to join it in Anbar and used mosques to make announcements in Fallujah. After Friday prayers on January 3, ISIS declared an Islamic state in Fallujah, and claimed they were there to protect the people from Maliki and the Iranians. At the same time, Radio Free Liberty said that ISIS distributed flyers in Fallujah threatening to bomb houses of those who opposed them. ISIS is by far the largest, most organized, and best armed group amongst the fighters in Anbar, and they have gotten the majority of the press, but there are many others involved in the fighting. Those include the Islamic Army, Hamas Iraq, the Mujahadeen Army, the Naqshibandi, Fallujah Battalions, the 1920 Revolution Brigades, Ansar al-Islam, and several tribes as well. By early January a Military Council was formed in Fallujah that tried to bring together all these various groups. This Council is responsible for setting up Islamic courts in the city, and basically acts as the de facto government there. When a new mayor and police chief were appointed in Fallujah in the middle of January for instance, the chief’s house was bombed and the mayor was temporarily kidnap leading both to flee to Kurdistan afterward. The majority of press reports continue to emphasize the role of ISIS in the fighting in Anbar, but they are one of many that are actually involved. Despite the differences between them they appear to be working together for the time being, and consider Anbar an uprising against the Iraqi government not just a battle for the province.

There have been several initiatives to try to end the conflict in Anbar, but they have gone nowhere. Maliki issued the first when he offered amnesty to anyone who could prove that they were fighting ISIS during the first week of January. This was aimed at gaining the support of tribes against the insurgency. Around the same time, sheikhs and clerics drew up a plan to have tribesmen and police form local patrols in Fallujah to secure the city. The next week the Anbar provincial council met with notables and came up with a withdrawal plan that would have militants pull out of Fallujah, while local police would return. January 15 it was reported that most of the militants agreed to pull out of the city, but ISIS refused. Two days later the provincial council stated that the deal had fallen apart because of the Islamic State. At the same time there were stories that talks were still underway with insurgents. The futility of those was shown on January 19 when four negotiators were temporarily kidnapped in Fallujah, which halted negotiations. January 22 the council tried again with a four-point program that included creating new security forces in Anbar, distributing development funds, and an amnesty for those with warrants out for them. There were more forceful attempts as well such as on February 1 when tribes gave ISIS two days to get out of Fallujah. That same day there was a conference in Ramadi that called for an end to fighting in 48 hours, letting local police back into the cities, helping displaced families, compensation for those that suffered losses, and the release of parliamentarian Alwani. February 7 Anbar Governor Ahmed Dulaimi Diab called for the withdrawal of fighters from the cities, the ending of warrants and legal proceedings against any protest members, 1 billion dinars in compensation for the province, the return of the displaced, and a seven day amnesty for insurgents. February 12 Prime Minister Maliki offered tribal fighters police jobs after the conflict was over, while the governor gave the militants in Fallujah one week to surrender. Finally, February 15 the premier went to Anbar and promised $83 million in reconstruction money. Local and central government officials continue to talk about their newest plans to end the fighting in the province, but the past few weeks should teach them that these are useless. While some militants may be open to talks ISIS does not believe in them. After so many failures in such a short period of time this should be obvious. The problem is that Baghdad is reluctant to send in the army into the major cities fearing the bloodbath and backlash that would create, and therefore has turned to locals to try to sort out the issue. Time is not on their side however as national elections are due in April and they can’t happen if insurgents are still in control of Anbar’s two major cities and several smaller towns as well. That means a military solution is just around the corner. 

Timeline Of Major Events In Anbar 2014

Date	Event
12/29/13	Ground Forces Commander Gen Ali Ghidan claimed ISIS bases in Anbar had been destroyed
12/30/13	Security forces take down Ramadi protest site
	Fighting breaks out in Ramadi and Fallujah
1/2/14	ISIS said to be in Fallujah and Ramadi
1/3/14	ISIS declares Islamic state in Fallujah
1/5/14	Maliki offers amnesty to anyone who fights ISIS
	Sheikhs and clerics issue peace plan to have tribesmen and police take over security in Fallujah and to keep army out of cities
1/7/14	Military Council of insurgents said to have been established in Fallujah
1/9/14	Anbar leaders call for insurgents to withdraw from Fallujah and local police to return to their jobs
1/15/14	Story that most insurgent groups had agreed to withdraw from Fallujah but ISIS refused
1/17/14	Provincial council said ISIS refused agreement to withdraw from Fallujah but talks still on going
1/19/14	4 negotiators temporarily kidnapped ending talks with insurgents
1/22/14	Provincial council issued four point peace plan for Fallujah including creation of new security forces, development funds, amnesty for those with warrants out for them
2/1/14	Local leaders called for ending of fighting in Fallujah in 2 days, withdrawing army from cities, letting police back into city, helping displaced families, compensation for those with losses, releasing MP Alwani, ending warrants and legal proceedings against protesters, 7 day amnesty for insurgents
	Security official said talks with insurgents had failed
2/12/14	PM Maliki offered police jobs to tribal fighters after conflict
	Anbar Governor gives insurgents in Fallujah one week to surrender
2/15/14	PM Maliki went to Anbar promising $83 mil in reconstruction funds

Of course, according to tribes and politicians most of Anbar is secure outside of Fallujah. February 2 the governing council said that 80% of the province was under control. January 6 the Anbar Operations Command claimed that the police and tribes were in complete control of central Ramadi. January 7 Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha told the press that the police and tribes had Fallujah under hand, and the next day said that 90% of Ramadi was cleared. January 10 Abu Risha’s nephew Mohammed said the same thing, and specifically mentioned the Malab and Fursan areas, which had seen heavy fighting with ISIS, were now cleared. January 11 the National Iraqi News Agency reported that the Islamic State had withdrawn from most of Ramadi. January 16 the security forces and tribes were believed to be in command of Saqlawiya, which is in between Ramadi and Fallujah, while retaking the eastern side of Ramadi. Three days later the effort to retake Ramadi was still on with a new operation being launched in five neighborhoods, while the army seized Khalidiya from militants. January 25 government forces and tribes were supposedly in command of eastern Fallujah and Garmah. February 5 the Anbar police chief stated that 85% of Ramadi was peaceful. February 12 the military told the media that most of Ramadi was cleared, and then on February 15 the Anbar Operations Command said that it had taken Khalidiya again. These announcements are about as useful as the endless peace offerings. All promise success, but then nothing comes of them. The security forces and local leaders are trying to portray things as being under control in Anbar, but the press reports betray the reality that things are not as they claim.

(Institute for the Study of War)

Not only is the fighting in Ramadi and Fallujah deadlocked, but the insurgents have been able to expand into the surrounding areas as well. For example, Fallujah’s Nazal and Shuhada neighborhoods have been in the news since January 6 and 8 respectively. There was fighting in those two areas on January 12, 14, and 17. The battle then seemed to move outside the city to the International Highway on January 9, 11, 14, 16, 20, 23, 25, 31, and February 16. Ramadi’s Malab has been just as disputed. It first got mentioned on January 9. The next day the security forces claimed they had retaken it. That was proven false when there were clashes there on January 11, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, February 1, 9, 11, 13, 14, 15, and 16. Similarly fighting started in Saqlawiya on January 3, the security forces cleared it on January 16, but violence soon returned on January 20. Khalidiya was secured twice on January 19 and February 15, but there are still reports of clashes there to the present time. There have also been reports of two confrontations in Haditha starting on December 31, two in Baghdadi beginning on December 31, eight in Garmah since January 1, Sajer on January 2, Rawa on January 3, nine in Albu Faraj since January 4, two in Albu Fahd starting on January 6, eleven in Albu Bali beginning on January 7, Hit on January 10, three in Albu Obaid since January 10, three in Jazeera with the first on January 11, Zaidan and Khan Dhari on January 12, six in Naimiya starting on January 19, Ersan on January 22, Zawba on January 24, Shihabi on January 30, Amiriya Fallujah on January 31, four in Albu Jabar since February 1, Habaniya on February 9, Albu Diab, Malahma, and Qaim on February 13, and Albu Shihab on February 15. This list shows that the militants have not only been able to hold their own in Fallujah and Ramadi, but have been able to expand the conflict to several of the nearby towns and cities. Some of these operations might have just been to draw the security forces away from an area, or an attempt to gain more ground in the province. Whatever the case, the insurgents appear to be in a strong position, and is probably the major reason why none of the peace talks have worked. Why should the fighters withdraw if they feel like they have the advantage. It also shows that the official line that only small parts of Ramadi and Fallujah are in trouble is false.

Timeline of Fighting In Anbar 2014

Date	Event
12/30/13	Fighting starts in Ramadi and Fallujah
12/31/13	Fighting in Fallujah, Ramadi, Haditha, Baghdadi
1/1/14	Police headquarters along with 2 other stations in Fallujah taken by insurgents
	Fallujah mayor’s office blown up
	4 police stations in Ramadi burned as security forces said to have withdrawn from city
	Fighting in Garmah
1/2/14	Fighting east of Ramadi and Sajer
	Anbar provincial council claims 80% of governorate secured
1/3/14	Fighting in Fallujah, central Ramadi, International Highway outside of Ramadi, Saqlawiya, Rawa
1/4/14	Fighting in Bakr and Ishreen areas of Ramadi, attack upon Al Mazra army base east of Fallujah, fighting in Albu Faraj, Baghdadi, Garmah, Haditha
1/6/14	Insurgents forced out of Nazal, Resala, Jbeil areas of Fallujah and Albu Fahd
	Fighting in Garmah
	Attempt to retake southern Ramadi failed
	Anbar Operations Command claims central Ramadi secured
1/7/14	Fighting in Albu Bali
	Sheikh Abu Risha said that Fallujah was under control
1/8/14	Fighting in Shuhada, Nazal, Askari in Fallujah, Khalidiya
	Sheikh Abu Risha said 90% of Ramadi secured
1/9/14	Fighting along International Highway outside of Fallujah, Malab in Ramadi, Albu Bali
1/10/14	Malab and Fursan areas of Ramadi retaken
	Fighting in Albu Bali, Hit, Albu Obaid
	Mohammed Khamis Abu Risha said Malab and Fursan areas of Ramadi cleared of ISIS
1/11/14	Fighting in Malab and Fursan areas of Ramadi, International Highway outside of Fallujah, Albu Faraj, Jazeera
1/12/14	Fighting in Shuhada and Jubail in Fallujah, Khalidiya, Zaidan, Khan Dhari
1/13/14	Fighting in 60 Street and Adil in Ramadi, outside of Haditha
1/14/14	Fighting in south and central Ramadi, Shuhada, Nazal, and Askari areas of Fallujah, Albu Bali, Albu Faraj, Jazeera, International Highway, Garmah, Saqlawiya
1/16/14	Fighting along International Highway outside of Fallujah, Khalidiya
	Saqlawiya said to be secured
	Report that tribes retaking Ramadi
1/17/14	Fighting in Shuhada, Jolan, and Jamhooriya areas of Fallujah, Albu Bali
	Sheikh Hayes claims tribes and police in control of central Fallujah
1/19/14	Fighting in 60 Street, Dabit, and Malab in Ramadi, Saqlawiya, Niamiya, Jazeera, Albu Bali
	Major operation to retake Ramadi launched
	Army said it retook Khalidiya
1/20/14	Fighting in central Ramadi, south and northeast Fallujah, International Highway outside of Fallujah, Albu Faraj, Saqlawiya, Khalidiya
1/21/14	Fighting in Malab and Dabit areas in Ramadi, Khalidiya
1/22/14	Fighting in Ramadi and Ersan
1/23/14	Fighting in Malab, Zanqurah, and Zoya in Ramadi, International Highway outside of Fallujah, Albu Bali, Khalidiya
1/24/14	Fighting in Ramadi, Albu Faraj, and Zawba
1/25/14	Fighting in Malab area of Ramadi, International Highway outside of Fallujah, Jazeera, Khalidiya, Albu Bali, Albu Faraj
	Security forces and tribes said to have retaken eastern Fallujah and Garmah
1/26/14	Fighting in Ramadi, Garmah, Niamiya, Albu Bali, Albu Obaid, Albu Faraj
1/27/14	Fighting in Fallujah, Malab and Zanqurah areas in Ramadi, Garmah, Niamiya
1/28/14	Fighting in Albu Obaid
1/29/14	Fighting in Fallujah, south Ramadi, Albu Faraj, Niamiya, Garmah
1/30/14	Fighting in Albu Faraj, Shihabi, Garmah
1/31/14	Fighting in Ramadi, northeast Fallujah, International Highway outside of Fallujah, Amiriya Fallujah
2/1/14	Fighting in Malab and Soura areas of Ramadi, Albu Jabar, Albu Faraj, attack on army base east of Ramadi, Saqlawiya, south of Fallujah
2/2/14	Fighting in Fallujah, Ramadi, Albu Jabar
2/3/14	Fighting east of Fallujah
2/5/14	Fighting in Albu Jabar
	Anbar police chief said that 85% of Ramadi secured
2/7/14	Fighting in Albu Jabar, Garmah
2/8/14	Fighting in Albu Bali
2/9/14	Fighting in Malab area of Ramadi, Albu Bali, Saqlawiya, Habaniya
2/11/14	Fighting in Malab area of Ramadi and northwest
2/12/14	Army said most of Ramadi secured
2/13/14	Fighting in Malab, Tamim, and 20 Street in Ramadi, north of Fallujah, Albu Diab, Malahma, Niamiya, Khalidiya, Qaim
2/14/14	Fighting in Malab and Zanqurah in Ramadi
	Deputy head of council said Ramadi secured
2/15/14	Fighting in Malab, Jazeera, and Dabit in Ramadi, Niamiya, Albu Shihab, Malahma, Khalidiya
	Anbar Operations Command said that Khalidiya cleared
2/16/14	Fighting in Secher in Fallujah, Malab and Zanqurah in Ramadi, International Highway outside of Fallujah, Saqlawiya

Anbar is no closer to being pacified today than when the fighting started at the end of December. Prime Minister Maliki caused this conflict because he thought that he had the upper hand against ISIS and the public was behind him. He completely misinterpreted the situation when he went after the protesters. Insurgents were able to claim that one year of relatively peaceful protests had been for naught and armed conflict was the only way to achieve their goals. Since then the situation has gone from bad to worse for Baghdad. Not only have all the local efforts to secure Ramadi and Fallujah failed, but militants have been able to expand the conflict to the surrounding areas. They have been able to take and hold ground against the police and tribesmen. Maliki continues to talk about resolving this through local means, but there is a bigger timetable that the premier has to follow and that is national elections, which are scheduled for April. No voting can take place in much of Anbar given the current security situation. While there is some talk that the balloting may be delayed, it is much more likely that the premier will order an all out assault on Ramadi and Fallujah by the Iraqi army instead. If not, Maliki’s opponents will challenge him on the growing violence, especially since his party is called State of Law. At the same time, any such operation will play right into the hands of the insurgents as the military is a blunt force. It will likely level large sections of Anbar in the process of clearing it, and that in turn will be used by the insurgency to claim that Baghdad is not to be trusted and that the people should flock to their side instead. The premier then is caught between a rock and a hard place. He continues to support initiatives by Anbaris, but knows that he can only wait so long. This is the current stalemate in the province, which could quickly turn for the worse.

FOOTNOTES

1. Al Rayy, “Ghaidan: operations in Anbar desert destroyed the majority of al-Qaeda camps and clans lifting tents,” 12/29/13

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- "Clashes resume north of Fallujah," 1/2/14

- "Clashes resumed between army and armed groups in Falluja," 1/11/14

- “Deployment of police and tribes in most of Fallujah intersections,” 1/3/14

- "A gunman killed and four others arrested near Syrian territory west of Anbar," 2/13/14

- "Gunmen attack military base east of Fallujah," 1/4/14

- "Gunmen burned a police station in Ramadi and preparations to storm Aljazeerah and Albu Bali areas," 2/14/14

- "Heavy Shelling and Armed Clashes in Fallujah," 1/20/14

- "killing and wounding of /5/ soldiers northwest Fallujah," 1/20/14

- "Killing of /32/ elements believed of being members of terrorist Daaish in Ramadi," 1/20/14

- "Killing of one of Islamic Army leaders, east of Fallujah," 2/14/14

- "Killing three Members of ISIL East of Ramadi," 1/12/14

- "Military patrol clashes with gunmen in western Anbar," 1/10/14

- "The Outbreak of Armed Clashes in Ramadi," 2/16/14

- "The outbreak of clashes between the army and armed groups in Ramadi,"2/14/14

- "Qaeda members attack a police station in Anbar province," 1/14/14

- “Security source: Armed groups overrun military compounds in Hadeetha,” 12/31/13

- “A security source: Army and Sahwa forces dominate the eastern areas of Fallujah,” 1/25/14

- “A security source: Army forces dominate on 85 percent of Ramadi,” 2/7/14

- "Setting Fire to a Police Station North of Ramadi," 1/20/14

- "Six People of /Daash/ Killed and Four Members of the Awakening Wounded East of Fallujah," 2/7/14

- "Six Soldiers Killed and Wounded in Armed Clash Southeast of Fallujah," 1/24/14

- “A Source in al- Anbar Provincial Council: The Military Option to Resolve the Situation in Fallujah is Near,” 1/19/14

- "Three civilians injured due to random artillery shellings by army in eastern Ramadi," 1/25/14

- "Three civilians killed and four others wounded in Fallujah," 2/15/14

- “Tribal chiefs, clergymen in Fallujah draw road map for ending armed manifestations in the city,” 1/5/14

- “Tribal Military Council formed in Falluja to fight terrorists,” 1/7/14

- "Two Gunmen Killed and Wounded in Clashes in Ramadi," 1/23/14

- “Urgent…Army and the tribes control Saqlawiyah north of Fallujah,” 1/16/14

- “Urgent….Elements of ISIL withdraw from Ramadi,” 1/11/14

- “Wide Security Campaign to Clear Fallujah of Gunmen,” 1/26/14

New Sabah, “Ending the armed manifestations Fallujah decided at a meeting today of Anbar,” 1/10/14

- “Failure “initiative Fallujah”..The Awakening: storming army became valid,” 2/1/14

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, "Iraqi Forces Kill Saudi Insurgent Commander In Anbar, As Residents Flee Fighting," 1/29/14

- “Iraqi Military Says Ramadi Largely Cleared Of Militants,” 2/12/14

Radio Free Iraq, “Anbar Residents Await Anxiously As ‘Clan Revolutionaries’ Take On Al-Qaeda,” 1/9/14

Rao, Prashant, "Clashes and shelling as 140,000 flee Iraq conflict," Agence France Presse, 1/24/14

Al Rayy, “Ghaidan: operations in Anbar desert destroyed the majority of al-Qaeda camps and clans lifting tents,” 12/29/13

- "A joint force of the army and the clans stormed the area of Albu Faraj north of Ramadi, killing three Daash," 1/26/14

- "The killing of four Daash and six others arrested during clashes with the joint forces in eastern Ramadi," 1/23/14

- "The killing of four members of the "Daash" and wounding a soldier in armed clashes east of Ramadi," 2/8/14

- "The killing of seven members of the military operation in Daash east of Fallujah," 1/27/14

- "Martyrdom and wounding 11 soldiers, the outcome of a suicide bombing in eastern Ramadi," 2/16/14

- "Wounding a number of the Sons of Iraq in clashes with terrorist Daash northern Ramadi," 1/11/14

Reuters, “Iraq Army Prepares to Storm Militant-Held Falluja,” 2/1/14

- "Iraq violence kills 24, militants stage big attacks near Falluja," 1/14/14

Salah, Amjad, "Violent clashes between government forces and gunmen in three areas Anbar," Alsumaria, 2/1/14

Salaheddin, Sinan, “Iraqi police dismantle Sunni protest in west,” Associated Press, 12/30/13

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Islamist militants strengthen grip on Iraq’s Falluja,” Reuters, 1/18/14

Al Sayegh, Hadeel, “Iraqi troops clash with Al Qaeda in Anbar,” The National, 1/10/14

Shafaq News, “Hayes: Army has been granted authorization to enter Fallujah,” 2/1/14

Yacoub, Sameer, "Attacks kill 13 in Iraq, militants seize soldiers," Associated Press, 1/26/14

- "Clashes in Iraq's embattled Anbar province kill 5," Associated Press, 1/17/14

- “Iraq: At least 60 killed in 2 weeks Anbar violence,” Associated Press, 1/11/14

Xinhua, "11 killed in insurgent attacks in Iraq," 2/14/14

- "16 killed in Iraq's violence," 1/27/14

- "Iraqi forces hit militant positions in Anbar, 15 killed," 2/2/14

- "Journalist killed as Iraqi forces fight gunmen in Anbar," 1/20/14