Reported violence in Iraq increased in March 2015 mainly due
to the successful government operation to clear Tikrit and central Salahaddin. Before
that the number of attacks, dead and wounded had all been going down in
February. That now appears to be a temporary dip as March’s statistics are much
more like December 2014 and January 2015. Despite March’s figures violence is
still down from the height of the summer of 2014.
There were 688 security incidents reported in the press in
March 2015. That was slightly up from February’s 655, but lower than January’s
817. The latter was a spike however as previous to that there were 606 attacks in
November and 689 in December.
Violence In Iraq 2014-2015 By Month
Month
|
Incidents
|
Dead
|
Wounded
|
Jan 14
|
1,014
|
1,483
|
2,880
|
Feb
|
955
|
1,285
|
2,531
|
Mar
|
992
|
1,606
|
2,889
|
Apr
|
990
|
1,456
|
2,924
|
May
|
905
|
1,462
|
2,602
|
Jun
|
905
|
4,172
|
3,701
|
Jul
|
937
|
2,299
|
3,319
|
Aug
|
815
|
3,211
|
3,623
|
Sep
|
713
|
2,230
|
3,139
|
Oct
|
755
|
2,435
|
3,170 + 1,230
|
Nov
|
606
|
1,931
|
3,089
|
Dec
|
689
|
2,032
|
3,106
|
2014
|
10,276
|
25,602
|
38,203
|
Jan 15
|
817
|
2,308
|
2,895
|
Feb
|
655
|
1,730
|
2,298
|
Mar
|
688
|
2,434
|
2,521
|
Avg Violence In Iraq
By Quarter 2014-2015
Quarter
|
Incidents
|
Dead
|
Wounded
|
1st Qtr 2014
|
32.9
|
48.6
|
92.2
|
2nd Qtr 2014
|
30.7
|
77.9
|
101.3
|
3rd Qtr 2014
|
26.7
|
84.1
|
109.5
|
4th Qtr 2014
|
22.2
|
69.5
|
115.1
|
2014
|
28.1
|
70.1
|
104.6
|
1st Qtr 2015
|
24.0
|
71.9
|
85.7
|
Despite March’s increase the number of incidents have been
going down since the start of 2014. In the first quarter of last year there
were an average of 32.9 incidents per day. January for example had 1,014
attacks alone. The second quarter there were 30.7 attacks per day, going down
to 26.7 the third quarter, 22.2 the fourth, and 24.0 the first quarter of 2015.
In the first half of 2014 the insurgency was ramping up its attacks to soften
up targets in preparation for its summer offensive. Since then there have only
been two big months of incidents in August 2014 and January 2015 when the
Islamic State launched major operations against the Kurds and in Anbar and
Salahaddin.
As usual almost all of the violence was concentrated in the
middle of Iraq. Baghdad was the most violent in March with 235 attacks,
followed by 122 in Salahaddin, 114 in Anbar, 100 in Ninewa, 59 in Diyala, 25 in
Kirkuk, and 22 in Babil. There were also eight incidents in Basra and two in
Maysan, which were probably not related to the insurgency, plus a rare attack
in Irbil when the Islamic State (IS) fired
rockets into the governorate. Otherwise southern and northern Iraq’s
Kurdistan have largely escaped the violence from the militants in recent
months. In the south what shootings and bombing do occur are largely due to
political, tribal and criminal disputes.
Those attacks led to 2,430 deaths and 2,371 wounded. The
former broke down to 43 Sahwa, 59 Peshmerga, 260 members of the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF), 1,098 Hashd al-Shaabi, and 970 civilians. The latter was made up
of 1 U.S. soldier, 38 Sahwa, 139 Peshmerga, 242 Hashd, 388 ISF, and 1,563
civilians. The American soldier was wounded at a training base in Baghdad when
he was fired at on March
11. 1,060 of the Hashd dead were in Salahaddin due to the Tikrit operation.
Like attacks, casualties have been declining since the
summer offensive. In the second quarter of 2014 for example, there was an
average of 77.9 deaths per day. That went up to 84.1 in the next quarter before
going down to 69.5 the fourth quarter and 71.9 the first quarter of 2015. The
average number of injured have been going in the same direction. The fourth
quarter had the highest average of 115.1, but that was because in October the
Kurdistan Regional Government released figures for Peshmerga losses since June.
Otherwise the quarterly averages would have been going down from the third
quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015.
Salahaddin was the deadliest province during the month.
There were 1,323 deaths there due to the fighting to retake Tikrit. That was
followed by 358 in Baghdad, 254 in Anbar, 200 in Ninewa, 137 in Kirkuk, 114
in Diyala, 25 in Babil, 18 in Basra, and one in Maysan.
Violence In Iraq March 2015 By Province
Province
|
Violence
|
Anbar
|
114 Incidents
254 Killed: 70 ISF, 4
Hashd, 32 Sahwa, 148 Civilians
428 Civilians: 88 ISF, 8 Sahwa,
332 Civilians
59 Shootings
4 IEDs
8 Suicide Bombers
35 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Car Bomb
16 Mortars
5 Rockets
|
Babil
|
22 Incidents
25 Killed: 3 ISF, 1 Hashd,
21 Civilians
78 Wounded: 17 ISF, 6
Hashd, 55 Civilians
5 Shootings
13 IEDs
3 Sticky Bombs
1 Sound Bomb
1 Car Bomb
|
Baghdad
|
235 Incidents
362 Killed: 26 ISF, 6
Hashd, 11 Sahwa, 319 Civilians
1,064 Wounded: 67 ISF, 1 US
Soldier, 16 Hashd, 30 Sahwa, 950 Civilians
64 Shootings
128 IEDs
23 Sticky Bombs
1 Suicide Bomber
8 Car Bombs
6 Mortars
5 Rockets
|
Bara
|
8 Incidents
18 Killed: 18 Civilians
30 Wounded: 30 Civilians
5 Shootings
1 Sticky Bombs
1 Truck Bomb
|
Diyala
|
59 Incidents
114 Killed: 3 ISF, 3 Hashd,
108 Civilians
35 Wounded: 10 ISF, 4
Hashd, 61 Civilians
31 Shootings
19 IEDs
4 Sticky Bombs
1 Car Bomb
|
Irbil
|
1 Incident
1 Rocket
|
Kirkuk
|
25 Incidents
137 Killed: 2 ISF, 24
Hashd, 46 Peshmerga, 65 Civilians
164 Wounded: 10 ISF, 13
Hashd, 137 Peshmerga, 4 Civilians
18 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Suicide Bomber
4 Car Bombs
1 Mine
|
Maysan
|
2 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 ISF
2 Shootings
|
Ninewa
|
100 Incidents
200 Killed: 10 ISF, 12
Peshmerga, 178 Civilians
22 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga, 21
Civilians
54 Shootings
41 IEDs
1 Mortar
1 Rockets
|
Salahaddin
|
122 Incidents
1,323 Killed: 145 ISF, 1
Peshmerga, 1,060 Hashd, 117 Civilians
550 Wounded: 196 ISF, 1
Peshmerga, 203 Hashd, 150 Civilians
60 Shootings
48 IEDs
9 Suicide Bombers
11 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Car Bomb
4 Mortars
1 Rockets
|
Car
Bombs In Iraq March 2015
Date
|
Location
|
Dead
|
Wounded
|
Mar 1
|
|||
Mar 2
|
East
of Samarra, Salahaddin
|
4
|
|
Mar 3
|
South
of Tikrit, Salahaddin
|
4
|
12
|
Mar 4
|
|||
Mar 5
|
Abu
Dishir, Baghdad
Alam
& Tal Ksaiba x3, Salahaddin
|
7
|
37
|
Mar 6
|
|||
Mar 7
|
Bastan,
Anbar
Bani
Saad, Diyala
Tuz
Kharmato, Salahaddin
|
13
|
47
|
Total
|
10
|
28
|
96
|
Mar 8
|
Zoba,
Anbar
Mahmudiya,
Babil
Jamila,
Baghdad
|
10
|
32
|
Mar 9
|
Mullah
Ali x3, Kirkuk
|
5
|
30
|
Mar 10
|
Mullah
Abdullah, Kirkuk
Baiji,
Salahaddin
|
2
|
16
|
Mar 11
|
Ramadi
x17, Anbar
Hurriya,
Baghdad
Diom,
Salahaddin
|
29
|
79
|
Mar 12
|
Saqlawiya,
Anbar
|
3
|
5
|
Mar 13
|
Diom,
Salahaddin
|
6
|
11
|
Mar 14
|
Ramadi
x5, Anbar
|
11
|
14
|
Total
|
34
|
66
|
187
|
Mar 15
|
Ramadi,
Anbar
|
5
|
7
|
Mar 16
|
|||
Mar 17
|
Ramadi,
Anbar
|
||
Mar 18
|
Um
Qasr, Basra
|
12
|
30
|
Mar 19
|
|||
Mar 20
|
Huiysh,
Salahaddin
|
6
|
|
Mar 21
|
Ramadi,
Anbar
Thar
Thar, Salahaddin
|
2
|
8
|
Total
|
6
|
19
|
51
|
Mar 22
|
|||
Mar 23
|
Husseiniya,
Madain, Sadr City, Baghdad
|
12
|
31
|
Mar 24
|
Garma,
Japanese Bridge, Khalidiya, Anbar x7
|
1
|
14
|
Mar 25
|
|||
Mar 26
|
|||
Mar 27
|
|||
Mar 28
|
|||
Total
|
10
|
13
|
45
|
Mar 29
|
|||
Mar 30
|
Husseiniya,
Baghdad x2
|
9
|
20
|
Mar 31
|
Ramadi,
Anbar
|
||
Mar
|
63
|
135
|
399
|
IS has been steadily increasing the number of Vehicle Borne
Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) after a two year low in December. That
month there were 21 car bombs. After that there were 45 in January, 52 in
February, and 63 in March. That averaged out to 2.0 VBIEDs per day last month.
Many more were destroyed before they reached their targets. IS has been using
these car bombs against both the government forces in offensive and offensive
operations, as well as a return to terrorist attacks upon civilians. On March
23 and 30
for example shops and markets
were bombed in Baghdad. Then on March 31,
the 8th Army Division base in northeast Ramadi was hit. The
intensity of these bombings was also highlighted on March
11 when 17 suicide car
bombs went off across Ramadi during heavy fighting there. That occurred
during the middle of a nine day stretch of at least one VBIED per day from
March 7-15.
SOURCES
Agence
France Presse, "IS attacks Iraq's Ramadi with seven car bombs:
police," 3/11/15
Associated
Press, "Officials; Twin car bombings in Baghdad kill at least 9,"
Rudaw, 3/30/15
Barnes,
Julian, "U.S. Suffers First Soldier Injury in Renewed Iraq Military
Action," Wall Street Journal, 3/13/15
Al
Mada, "Killing and wounding 12 people in a second car bomb in eastern
Baghdad," 3/23/15
Radio
Free Iraq, "11 March 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 3/11/15
-
"31 March 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 3/31/15
Salama,
Vivina, "Iraq Officials: Baghdad Bombings Kill 19; Wound 36,"
Associated Press, 3/23/15
Shafaq
News, "ISIS bombarding the western borders of Erbil with Katyusha
mortar," 3/15/15
UN Assistance Mission for Iraq, “Iraq: UN Casualty Figures
for March 2015,” 4/1/15
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