The first moves for the liberation of Mosul have begun in
Iraq. Troops have moved north into Ninewa province. A security operation in
Salahaddin and Anbar to cut Islamic State supply lines is underway. The battle
for the city however may be still a far ways off.
Three Iraqi army brigades are being moved into Ninewa
province for the Mosul operation. That started with troops from the 16th
Division in October.
Then in February
two more brigades from the 15th Division arrived. These soldiers are
going to the Makhmour district, which is now the headquarters
of the Ninewa Operations Command. Five to nine more brigades are
preparing as well. There’ are questions about what role these troops will play
in the actual assault. In the successful Ramadi operation, the elite Golden
Division was in the lead in the entire operation with other forces only in a support
role. U.S. advisers have said
that won’t be applicable to Mosul because of the size of the city. That means
these troops need not only training but more combat experience as well so that
they are ready to carry their own weight.
Other preparatory moves have begun as well in Anbar and
Salahaddin. In March, the joint forces began a multi-pronged clearing operation
from Thar
Thar lake in northern Anbar to Samarra in central Salahaddin, and from Samarra north to Tikrit
and then Baiji. These moves are meant to cut IS’s supply lines from Anbar and
Salahaddin to Mosul. The joint forces have claimed quick success, but the area
is a huge mix of rural and desert territory, which they have gone through
multiple times. It’s been hard for them to hold it in the past and the same is
likely now. There are plenty of other areas that need to be cleared as well
such as Shirqat in Salahaddin, Hawija in Kirkuk, and the towns south of Mosul. Cities
in Anbar like Hit and Fallujah could also draw forces away from the Mosul
operation. These will all take times and resources and delay the eventually
attack.
Finally, the politics of the assault must also be
considered. Every group in Iraq wants to take part in the offensive since it is
considered the final straw in freeing territory from IS control. Besides the
army, the Hashd, the Kurds, former Ninewa Governor Atheel Najafi and his
Turkish allies all want a piece of the pie. Nujafi, the Ninewa council, and
Sunni politicians in parliament have all objected to the Hashd taking part, but
Abadi has said they will. Likewise, the Hashd don’t want the Turks involved
because they are allied with Nujafi and the Kurds, and are believed to be IS
supporters. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi needs to balance out all of these
forces. As Denise Natali of the National Defense University has pointed out,
a political agreement needs to be forged before the offensive begins. Any
observer of Iraqi politics will know, that will be another major challenge.
While Iraqi and American officials have said that the Mosul
operation is already underway the actual assault on the city may not happen
until 2017. General
Vincent Stewart and Interior
Minister Mohammed Ghabban have said as much. The need to clear territory,
train and prepare more troops, and forge a political deal will all take time
pushing back the start date.
SOURCES
Associated Press, “Iraq’s military is still struggling
despite U.S. training,” 1/27/16
BBC, “’Two and a Half Front War’ is well under way,” 3/4/16
Cockburn, Patrick, “Iraq’s Interior Minister on why state
corruption is helping the murderous campaign of Isis Baghdad,” The Independent,
3/2/16
Mamoun, Abdelhak, “2 brigades of Iraqi army arrive in
Makhmour to liberate Mosul,” Iraqi News, 2/11/16
- “16th Division troops arrive in Nineveh to
participate in Mosul liberation,” Iraqi News, 10/11/15
Morris, Loveday, “With Islamic State under pressure, Iraqi
forces hope to reclaim city of Hit,” Washington Post, 2/19/16
Natali, Denise, “The Long Road to Mosul,” War On The Rocks,
2/4/16
New Sabah, "Rapid progress by
the joint forces and the popular crowd as they smash Daash defensive
lines," 3/1/16,
Reuters, “Islamic State unlikely to be ejected from Mosul in
2016: U.S. general,” 2/9/16
Rudaw, "Iraqi offensive
targets ISIS in Anbar a day after commander's death," 3/2/16,
Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Battle for Iraq’s Mosul: the mother of
all build-ups,” Middle East Eye, 3/6/16
Youssef, Nancy and Harris, Shane, “How ISIS Actually Lost
Ramadi,” Daily Beast, 12/30/15
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