CIA Iraq Invasion Would Only Embolden Sunni Regimes In Middle East

After the 2003 invasion President George Bush argued that Iraq was part of his freedom agenda. He believed that overthrowing Saddam Hussein was the first step in transforming the entire Middle East where autocratic governments and terrorism were rampant. In a speech at the Army War College in May 2004 for example, the president said that a stable and democratic Iraq would discredit militants’ ideology and help reform the region. Bush believed that only by going to the heart of the Muslim world could that change be effected. The CIA however had completely different ideas.

In October 2004 the CIA wrote a memo, “Near Term Regional Implications of Successful Iraqi Elections.” The report was assessing the up coming elections that would be held in Iraq in 2005, but also addressed what kind of affect they would have on the Middle East. The Agency thought that a democratic Iraq would likely cause opposition from the Sunni regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf States. They would probably crackdown on their own Shiite populations, and solidify their hold on power. This was a direct challenge to the president’s beliefs.

In the years since the 2003 invasion it would seem that the CIA was right about the effect the Iraq invasion would have on the Middle East and North Africa. Besides the brief and largely unfulfilled hope of the Arab Spring not much has changed in the region. Some leaders have gone such as Mubarak in Egypt and Khadaffi in Libya, while others remain like Assad and the political systems are largely the same. As the Agency predicted the Saudis and Gulf States were against the new Iraq and refused to send ambassadors for years after the overthrow of Saddam, while supporting the insurgency. The Shiites outside of Iraq are still largely a marginalized minority. Finally, given all of the violence that Iraq has gone through and continues to experience plus its political dysfunction tends to undermines the positive fact that it is one of the few democracies in the region.

SOURCES

Bush, President George, “Bush’s Remarks on Iraq at the Army War College,” Washington Post, 5/24/04

Gordon, Michael and Trainor, General Bernard, The Endgame, The Inside Story Of The Struggle For Iraq, From George W. Bush To Barack Obama, New York, Pantheon, 2012

Security In Iraq, Jun 15-21, 2016

Since March 2016 Iraq has seen a steady stream of terrorist attacks by the Islamic State during its spring –Ramadan offensive. At the same time, the government has been working hard to clear Anbar, while starting separate operations in Ninewa and Salahaddin as well. Each one of those leads to a steady stream of counter attacks increasing the level of violence overall throughout the country.

The number of incidents in Iraq has been at a steady level for the last four months. In January there were an average of 19.2 incidents per day. That went down to 18.9 in February. Since then there has been an average of 21.4 in March, 19.9 in April, 20.8 in May and 21.0 so far in June.

Avg. Incidents Per Day In Iraq 2016

Jan 19.2

Feb 18.9

Mar 21.4

Apr 19.9

May 20.8

Jun 21.0

In the third week of June there were 148 incidents, leading to 352 deaths and 497 wounded. The dead consisted of 3 Sahwa, 6 Peshmerga, 41 Hashd, 46 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 256 civilians, while there were 7 Sahwa, 45 Peshmerga, 56 ISF, 81 Hashd, and 308 civilians injured.

From June 15-21, 2016 the Fallujah campaign was still on going. Towns around the city were still being freed, while the main thrust was into Fallujah itself. Neighborhoods such as Nazzal and Shuhada were cleared, and by June 16 the government complex was reached. That prompted Prime Minister Haidar Abadi to declare the city free, while the military claimed 80% of it was under control. The U.S. military however announced that only one-third of Fallujah was liberated, while the rest was contested. Either way the Islamic State’s defenses had been pierced, and the Iraqi forces were moving from the center to the north to finish its mission, which would be completed shortly.

At the same time the government forces were moving back through the Ramadi area, specifically Zankura during the week, because of IS re-infiltration. The town was declared freed as recently as June 15 and then a new operation started there on June 20, along with another to the north of Ramadi. Efforts were still underway in Amiriya Fallujah as well. This is a re-occurring problem as Baghdad does not have the forces to hold all of the areas that it is moving through leaving many security gaps that IS exploits to move back in. Finally, forces were being built up in Haditha for a new thrust into western Anbar heading towards Syria.

There were also continuing reports of Hashd abuses in the Fallujah operation including torture and killing displaced people. One Hashd fighter was arrested, but that appeared to be more of a scapegoat than a crackdown on these excesses. In fact, the earlier report by the Anbar governor about cases of deaths, disappearances, looting, and torture was likely a move to protect Abadi from further criticism over the conduct of the operation. Right from the start of the offensive stories began to emerge of abuses going on at the hands of the Hashd. The governor’s announcement was meant to show that Sunni authorities were investigating these cases. The governor after all is aligned with the prime minister.

Reported casualties during these operations remained low. 1 Hashd, 4 Police, and 8 soldiers were killed, along with 1 police, 5 Hashd, and 17 soldiers injured. Government shelling of Fallujah killed another 18 civilians and wounded 28. Baghdad actively blocks releasing figures on its losses so the real numbers are probably much higher.

After a three month low in incidents in Baghdad the previous week, they shot back up the third week of June. There were 61, leading to 105 dead, and 262 wounded. IS continued attempts at mass casualty bombings in the capital. Suicide bombers hit checkpoints in Yusifiya and Swaib, and another hit the army base in Taji. As usual the most incidents occurred in the south with 27, followed by 13 in the north, 12 in the east, and 9 in the west. This has been the pattern of attacks for months now as IS has picked up its operations in Baghdad, while losing ground in the rest of the country.

Violence in Baghdad, Jun 15-21, 2016

Center: 0

East: 10 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Robbery/Shooting, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 IEDs, 5 Shootings

Outer East: 2 – 1 Shooting, 1 IED

North: 6 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 Shooting, 4 IEDs

Outer North: 7 – 1 Suicide Bomber, 1 Shooting, 5 IEDs

South: 15 – 1 Suicide bomber, 1 Sticky Bomb, 3 Shootings, 10 IEDs

Outer South: 12 – 1 Suicide Bomber, 3 Shootings, 8 IEDs

West: 7 – 1 Stabbing/Robbery, 2 Sticky Bombs, 4 IEDs

Outer West: 2 – 2 IEDs

Violence in Diyala remained at a low level with a daily routine of IEDs, shootings, and kidnappings. On the other hand, the frequency of these incidents has doubled from what they were before. As a sign of this new status quo, the ISF claimed to have killed 5 suicide bombers in Abu Saida, a known IS stronghold in the province.

In Ninewa the Iraqi forces were continuing preparatory moves towards Mosul. June 18 an operation aimed at Qayara was announced, but this angered the government as it was hoping for an element of surprise before it started. At the same time, the second phase of the Ninewa operation was said to have ended on June 20. That consisted of finally achieving a breakthrough in the Makhmour area where several towns were taken after the initial thrust was a huge disappointment. The Islamic State responded with a suicide car bomb in the Haj Ali area in that district that killed 12 and wounded 6. IS also launched three attacks in the Sinjar district, and executed seven in Mosul and Qayara.

The government finally made its move on Shirqat in Salahaddin. The Hashd talked about freeing that district in the northern section of the province after Baiji was freed in October 2015, but then they were called away to Syria by Iran to participate in the Russian led campaign there. While one town was freed in this new operation, it also appeared to have hick-ups as it started on June 18, and was then re-launched on June 21. Shirqat is the last section of Salahaddin that IS still controls and is an important stepping stone to the Mosul operation.

Like in Ramadi, IS has been able to move back into sections of the Baiji and Tikrit districts. That caused a new security operation to be started in the former with two towns taken. IS also hit a Hashd office in Dour with a suicide car bomb south of Tikrit killing 5 and wounding 35.

The insurgents also began a new wave of devastating attacks in the Tuz Kharmato district. On June 17 it seized three villages temporarily before being expelled. It also attacked Tuz Kharmato itself with a suicide bomber. In total those attacks led to 32 Hashd and 5 Peshmerga being killed, and 41 Hashd and 42 Peshmerga being wounded, along with two civilians. The next day another suicide car bomb went off in Tuz Kharmato killing 40 and injuring 14. During those incidents the police chief of Tuz was killed. In retaliation the prison in Amerli was attacked and up to 52 prisoners were executed in retaliation, an act blamed on the Badr organization.  The Tuz district has been a hot spot for ethno-political disputes between Kurds and Shiite Arabs and Turkmen, with Sunni Arabs and Turkmen being caught in the middle. IS successfully exploited those tensions with these attacks, which led to the murder of the prisoners, which were Sunnis.

All of this fighting led to 182 dead and 152 wounded in Salahaddin during the week, which was higher than the last seven monthly totals.

Finally, after only two successful car bombs in the first two weeks of June there were 9 the third month. Those hit Anbar, Ninewa, and Salahaddin and left behind 94 fatalities and 141 injured. Another 36 were said to be destroyed, but because of exaggerations by the security forces that figure is unreliable.

Violence In Iraq 2015-16

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	911	2,656	3,032 + 150
FEB	730	2,345	2,366
MAR	820	2,665	2,529
APR	751	2,753	2,621
MAY	674	2,565 + 1,499	1,952 + 646
JUN	708	2,153 + 405	2,174
JUL	688	2,716	3,198 + 4,024
AUG	684	2,440 + 760	1,777
SEP	649	1,731	1,668 + 3,003
OCT	589	1,144	1,555
NOV	530	1,174	1,455 + 124 + 1,322
DEC	553	1,155	1,252 + 5,920
Jan 1-7	150	808	421
Jan 8-14	140	436	417
Jan 15-21	135	275	227
Jan 22-28	132	392	322
Jan 29-31	41	81	334
JAN	598	2,052	1,721
Feb 1-7	146	575	313
Feb 8-14	119	146	323
Feb 15-21	130	225	239
Feb 22-29	153	371	690
FEB	549	1,281	1,566
Mar 1-7	183	321	478
Mar 8-14	168	408	415
Mar 15-21	130	349	409
Mar 22-28	135	213	420
Mar 29-31	49	172	121
MAR	665	1,463	1,843
Apr 1-7	144	239	444
Apr 8-14	141	271	391
Apr 15-21	124	436	242
Apr 22-28	160	413	524
Apr 29-30	30	61	121
APR	599	1,420	1,722
May 1-7	160	325	420
May 8-14	141	311	674
May 15-21	121	349	604
May 22-28	142	200	397
May 29-31	81	115	313
MAY	645	1,300	2,409
Jun 1-7	161	389	487
Jun 8-14	132	234	461
Jun 15-21	148	352	497

Security By Province Jun 15-21, 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	31 Incidents 34 Killed: 1 Hashd, 12 ISF, 21 Civilians 58 Wounded: 5 Hashd, 18 ISF, 35 Civilians 6 Shootings 5 IEDs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Rockets 3 Mortars 1 Suicide Bomber Arrested 10 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 23 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	1 Incident 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 IED
Baghdad	61 Incidents 105 Killed: 3 Sahwa, 21 ISF, 81 Civilians 262 Wounded: 7 Sahwa, 24 ISF, 231 Civilians 15 Shootings 36 IEDs 5 Sticky Bombs 3 Suicide Bombers
Basra	2 Incidents 2 IEDs
Diyala	12 Incidents 9 Killed: 3 ISF, 3 Hashd, 3 Civilians 12 Wounded: 3 Civilians, 9 ISF 3 Shootings 5 IEDs 5 Suicide Bombers Killed
Kirkuk	7 Incidents 6 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 5 Civilians 5 Wounded: 5 Civilians 3 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Mortar
Ninewa	14 Incidents 16 Killed: 16 Civilians 6 Wounded: 6 Civilians 5 Shootings 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Salahaddin	19 Incidents 182 Killed: 5 Peshmerga, 10 ISF, 37 Hashd, 130 Civilians 152 Wounded: 5 ISF, 26 Civilians, 45 Peshmerga, 76 Hashd 6 Shootings 4 IEDs 3 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 1 Suicide Bomber Killed 3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Sulaymaniya	1 Incident 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 IED

Car Bombs In Iraq June, 2016

Date	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1	Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jun 2
Jun 3	Baghdadi & Saqlawiya, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Jun 4	Kirkuk, Kirkuk – 1 destroyed
Jun 5	Albu Bali & Fallujah, Anbar – 8 destroyed
Jun 6	Fallujah & Yatama, Anbar – 6 destroyed
Jun 7	Karbala, Karbala Fallujah & Jeraishi, Anbar – 7 destroyed	10	28
Totals	1 – 26 Destroyed	10	28
Jun 8	Nasir, Ninewa – 3 destroyed Makhoul Mountains, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Jun 9	New Baghdad, Baghdad	19	64
Jun 10	Fallujah, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jun 11	Fahalat & Subhait, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Jun 12	Jeraishi, Anbar – 1 destroyed Nasir, Ninewa – 2 destroyed
Jun 13	Jeraishi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Jun 14	Fallujah, Anbar – 11 destroyed
Totals	1 – 23 Destroyed	19	64
Jun 15	Fallujah, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jun 16	Basateen, Halabesa, Fallujah & Nukhaib, Anbar – 20 destroyed
Jun 17	Shuraidah, Ninewa Pir Ahmad x 2, Tuz Kharmato, Zanjar x 2, Salahaddin	46	88
Jun 18	Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin Beit Ekab, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed	40	14
Jun 19	Albu Risha & Fallujah, Anbar – 8 destroyed
Jun 20	Zankura, Anbar Zankura, Anbar – 3 destroyed	3	4
Jun 21	Dour, Salahaddin Fallujah, Anbar – 1 desroyed North Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	5	35
Totals	9 – 36 Destroyed	94	141

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, "Iraqi Special Forces Enter Center of IS-Held Fallujah," Associated Press, 6/17/16

- "Iraqi Troops Seize Fallujah Hospital, Clear Mines," Associated Press, 6/18/16

Adel, Loaa, "17 ISIS members killed during battles in northern Ramadi," Iraqi News, 6/19/16

- "20 ISIS members killed during battles in western Fallujah," Iraqi News, 6/16/16

- "Anti-Terrorism forces liberate Zankora village in northern Ramadi," Iraqi News, 6/15/16

- "Joint security forces free al-Tikrit orchard southeast of Fallujah," Iraqi News, 6/15/16

- "Military reinforcements arrive in haditha to participate in battles," Iraqi News, 6/16/16

- "Security forces liberate Mashak village north of Baiji," Iraqi News, 6/18/16

- "Tuz suicide attacks on Patriotic Union of Kurdistan kills, wounds 13 people," Iraqi News, 6/18/16

AIN, "Pictures .. Blew up a Kia van carrying a bomb southeast of Fallujah," 6/15/16

- "Urgent control staff bridge in Fallujah," 6/16/16

- "Urgent freed second Al-Jughaifi neighborhood and cleared the Jordanian hospital in Fallujah," 6/21/16

BBC, "IS conflict: Iraqi troops push into northern Falluja," 6/20/16

Buratha News, "Security forces destroyed a tank suicide bomber in Nukhayib," 6/16/16

Face Iraq, "Baghdad Operations: freed Khudayr and Salam southeast Fallujah," 6/16/16

- "Found the bodies of 52 detainees who were abducted by militants following an attack on Amerli," 6/18/16

- “Security forces arrest a member of the pouplar crowd accused of killing 17 displaced residents of Fallujah,” 6/15/16

Al Forat, "Destroyed three Daash cars and a bulldozer bomb in northern Salahuddin," 6/21/16

George, Susannah, “US-Led Coalition Says Only 1/3 of Fallujah Cleared of IS,” Associated Press, 6/21/16

Iraq News, "Security forces liberate all areas in southern axis of Fallujah, tens of ISIS members killed," 6/19/16

Iraq Oil Report, "IS targets Tuz again, exposing deep-roted divisions," 6/20/16

Iraqi News, "Security forces finish 2nd phase of operations to liberae southern Mosul," 6/20/16

- "Joint security forces free al-Jumhoriya in Fallujah," 6/21/16

- "Liberating operations of areas to north of Salahuddin resume," 6/21/16

- "Security forces begin operation to liberate Zankoura area in northern Ramadi," 6/20/16

- "Security forces liberate all areas in southern axis of Fallujah, tens of ISIS members killed," 6/19/16

Khalid, Herman, "Twin Blasts in Tuz Khurmatu Kill Two," Bas news, 6/18/16

Khoder, Salam, “Fallujah civilians: ‘Militias take turns to torture us,’” Al Jazeera, 6/16/16

Al Maalomah, "At least six martyrs and 13 wounded in suicide bombing at Camp Taji," 6/20/16

- "Fully cleared the village of Zoba southeast of Fallujah," 6/19/16

- "Security forces liberated village in northern Salahuddin," 6/21/16

- "Source: Tuz bombing by a truck bomb led to the death of three people and injuring 14 others," 6/18/16

Al Mada, "The joint forces entered the center of Fallujah destroying 15 car bombs," 6/16/16

- "Started process of freeing areas north of Ramadi from Daash control," 6/16/16

Al Masalah, "Freed village in Makhoul and incursions in the Hamrin Mountains,” 6/18/16

- "Freed village south-west of Baiji refinery," 6/18/16

- "Launching large-scale military campaign to liberate the southern sector of Fallujah," 6/21/16

Middle East Monitor, "Militia accused of killing 50 people in Iraq prison," 6/20/16

Morris, Loveday and Salim, Mustafa, "Iraqi forces recapture main hospital in Fallujah, driving ISIS further out," Washington Post, 6/18/16

New Sabah, "Counter-Terrorism service frees Nazal neighborhood in southern Fallujah and is moving to complete the liberation of the first Shuhada," 6/15/16

NINA, "3 Terrorists Killed, A Car Bomb Blown Up Near Iron Bridge In Fallujah," 6/21/16

- "Car Bomb Targeting Displaced, Kill And Wound 18 Civilians," 6/17/16

- "Rapid Reaction Division arrives to Street 60, in the center of Fallujah," 6/15/16

- "Two Areas In Fallujah Liberated," 6/15/16

- "Urgent..Anti-Terrorism Raise The Iraqi Flag In The Olympic Stadium in Fallujah and inter the Yarmouk District," 6/16/16

- "Urgent…Cleansing Kareem Khalaf Village North-West Of Baiji Refinery," 6/18/16

- "Urgent..Liberating al-Ersan (the Grooms) area and securing the bank of the Euphrates River against the Amiriyaht al- Fallujah," 6/17/16

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, "Iraqi Forces Open Front Near Mosul After Taking Fallujah," 6/18/16

Reuters, "Iraqi forces retake two Falluja districts from Islamic State, push west," 6/21/16

Rudaw, "24 Iraqi policemen killed in predawn ISIS attack, Peshmerga intervenes," 6/17/16

- "Twin bomb blast kill 9 in Iraq's capital," 6/15/16

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “EXCLUSIVE: Iraq says 17 civilians murdered by Shia fighter in Fallujah,” Middle East Eye, 6/16/16

Sarhan, Amre, "Iraqi forces free four villages towards southeast of Fallujah," Iraqi News, 6/15/16

- "ISIS suicide bomber killed by police while driving booby-trapped vehicle in western Fallujah," Iraqi News, 6/19/16

Shafaq News, "Security forces kill five suicide bombers blew themselves up in Abu Saida Diyala," 6/18/16

Sotaliraq, "Death toll of Daash attacks on Tuz up to 65 dead and wounded," 6/17/16

- "Killing and wounding seven members of the counter terrorism force in suicide bombing north of Ramadi," 6/20/16

Al Sumaria, "Emergency regiment holding Shuhada area in Fallujah after its liberation from Daash," 6/16/16

Turkish Weekly, "Five Shia militiamen killed in N. Iraq: Police source," 6/21/16