I was cited in “Analysis:
‘Signs of Recovery for the Islamic State,’” by Kyle Orton for The Henry
Jackson Society. I was interviewed for "Can Iraq integrate Hashd paramilitaries into the armed forces?" by Paul Iddon for Rudaw.
Sunday, April 30, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 194-195, Apr 28-29, 2017
Life after the Islamic State in Mosul. Toys were banned by
the group, but now for sale in east Mosul (The Sun)
April 29 the Joint Operations Command announced that there was a
small advance in the Old City. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division
moved from 300 to 200 meters within the Grand Mosque in the district. In a rare
occurrence, the Iraqi forces announced losses in the day’s fighting. 14 Federal
Police were killed,
and 20 wounded by a series of suicide bombers. Four
more were killed by sniper fire. The Golden Division and police were also
attempting to take the Zinjali neighborhood, which would further surround the
Old City. The police have been assaulting the Old City for nearly two months.
The fight has been very difficult sometimes involving room to room combat. The
main job of the police has been to hold down the Islamic State, while the
Golden Division took the center of the city. A member of the Ninewa council
told Al
Mada that strategy remains in place to bypass the district, and seize the
rest of west Mosul.
Saturday, April 29, 2017
Security In Iraq April 15-21, 2017
The number of reported security incidents in Iraq took
another drop for the third straight week. There were 106 incidents mentioned in
the press from April 15-21. That was the lowest count for the year, and the fewest
incidents since 2013. That was due to violence being down across the country
along with a dip in Ninewa where the Battle for Mosul was going on.
Friday, April 28, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 193, Apr 27, 2017
There were no
advances in west Mosul for a second day. Federal Police commander General
Shakir Jawadat said that his forces were 300 meters from the Grand Mosque in the Old City,
which was where Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the
caliphate in 2014. The police have been that distance from the mosque for more
than a month now however. The Golden Division let it be known that there were only four districts left to be liberated in the city.
That’s roughly forty percent of the western half. The police have been
stalemated in the Old City for weeks now. The Golden Division on the other hand
seized most of the center of the city. It is likely consolidating its latest
move into the Tanak neighborhood, the largest in the west.
Thursday, April 27, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 192, Apr 26, 2017
A market in Nabi Younis, east Mosul (Reuters)
There were clashes in west Mosul, and the Hashd were
advancing towards the Syrian border. The Golden Division was fighting
in Zinjali, and the Federal Police were battling in Rifai, Harmat, and the Wadi
Akab cemetery, both in the eastern section of the city. The Hashd on the other
hand captured
four towns, including the historical Hatra,
west of Mosul. Hatra is listed as a UNESCO world heritage site, and the Islamic
State destroyed part of it after it was captured in 2014. In 2015 the group
released a video of it smashing walls, shooting statues, and destroying other
structures. That was for propaganda purposes however, as the main goal of IS
was not to wreck the place, but rather to loot it and sell the antiquities to
help raise funds. The police and Golden Division are attempting to link up in
the Old City district, while the Hashd are pushing towards the Syrian border,
because the government will not let it take Tal Afar.
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 191, Apr 25, 2017
The Golden Division freed the Tanak neighborhood located on
the far left. The police are still fighting over the Old City on the far right
along the Tigris River. Green = liberated, White = IS control, Blue = Tigris
River. (Ninewa Media Center)
There was a large advance in the western section of west
Mosul, and very limited movement in the east. The Golden Division freed Tanak, which it fought over for almost a month.
It is one of the largest neighborhoods in the city and is along the western
edge. In the east the police inched ahead. It was still attacking the Old City along four axes and was said to have
seized some streets in Bab al-Tob and Bab al-Jadid. The
police recently restarted their operations in the district after a month long
pause, but have only advanced a few meters.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 190, Apr 24, 2017
Federal Police mortar position east Mosul (Reuters)
The Joint Operations Command announced
that only 30% of west Mosul remained under Islamic State control. Based upon
daily reports and maps available that sounded roughly correct. In the last
several weeks the Golden Division has seized much of the center of west Mosul
greatly expanding the government’s control of the city.
Monday, April 24, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 189, Apr 23, 2017
People fleeing the fighting in central West Mosul (Reuters)
The Islamic State launched a surprise attack upon a
Federal Police base south of Mosul. A group of ten insurgents, four of which
were suicide bombers, assaulted
the police in the town of Arij in the Hamam al-Alil district. They were dressed
in police uniforms, which allowed them to infiltrate the base. The fighting
lasted for over an hour before most of the militants were killed and the rest
escaped. Three police died as a result. While IS is surrounded in west Mosul it
has not stopped it from launching offensive operations. Just this week it set
off a car bomb in liberated east Mosul. Fortunately these attacks do not happen
that often.
Security In Iraq, April 8-14, 2017
Security incidents reported in the press took a dip in the
second week of April in Iraq, while casualties remained largely unchanged from
the previous week. There was very little violence around most of the country,
with almost all the incidents taking place in Ninewa due to the Battle for
Mosul.
There were 124 incidents reported in the press in Iraq from
April 8-14, 2017. There were 58 in Ninewa, 28 in Baghdad, 14 in Diyala, 9 in Anbar,
8 in Salahaddin, 3 in Basra and Kirkuk each, and 1 in Babil. That was the
lowest weekly total since the first February 1-7 when there were 123.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
Musings On Iraq In The News
My interview with Charlie Winter on how the
Islamic State is dealing with its defeat in Mosul was reprinted by Vox
Pol.
Mosul Campaign Day 188, Apr 22, 2017
The Iraqi forces were active across all sections of west
Mosul. First, the Golden Division took the Siha neighborhood
in the middle of the city. It was still fighting in Tanak as well. General Maan
Saadi claimed that the Golden Division was surrounding the Old City, but it
continues to move north rather than to the east where the Old City is. The
police were still assaulting
that district from four directions, but the fight still appeared to be
deadlocked. A brigade from the army’s 16th Division, which was doing
security duties in east Mosul was transferred
to the northwest of the city to join the 9th Division and the Hashd.
Those units reached just outside of Mosul a few days ago, but there have been
no reports of movement since then, although government maps claim they have
seized several areas in the northern perimeter of west Mosul. Since the Iraqi
government always likes reporting its victories the maps may be an
exaggeration. The Golden Division remains the most effective force of the
government. It has continued to gain neighborhood after neighborhood in the
west and center of west Mosul. The police on the other hand announced that they
were renewing operations in the Old City after a month long pause, but have
still not made much headway. Fighting in the district is very intense going
from street to street, house to house, sometimes room to room. The police may
be over relying upon artillery and air strikes as well rather than clearing out
areas on the ground.
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 187, Apr 21, 2017
The Iraqi forces were involved in heavy fighting across west
Mosul. There were clashes between the Islamic State and Golden Division in the Siha
neighborhood, and with the police in the Old City district. The Golden Division
has been making steady progress up the middle and western section of the city,
while the police have been stuck in the Old City for more than a month. The narrow
streets, dense layout of buildings, and Islamic State defenses have all held up
taking the district.
Friday, April 21, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 186, Apr 20, 2017
April 19 Iraqi police claimed they had liberated 30-40% of the
Old City. Newest map shows no changes in district. Bulge on left was recent
200m advance police made April 16, otherwise no movement in south for over
month now (Ninewa Media Center)
The Golden Division was still advancing in the center of
west Mosul. The Nasr
neighborhood was declared freed, and there was fighting in Haramat,
Siha,
and Tanak. The unit has been making steady progress in the middle and western
section of the city.
Thursday, April 20, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 185, Apr 19, 2017
PM Abadi visiting west Mosul (Rudaw)
Iraqi propaganda again obscured what was going on in west
Mosul. First, the Golden Division freed
the Thawra neighborhood in the center of the city on April 18. Then on April 19
a spokesman for the Rapid Reaction Division claimed
that 30% of the Old City had been taken, while a police major had it at 40%.
The major said this was the result of 38 days of fighting in the district. The
police have largely been on pause for the last month however, and no
neighborhoods were named as being liberated. The Federal Police also reported
that it was destroying Islamic State sites in the district, fighting in Farouq
Street like they have for weeks now, and attempting
to connect with the Golden Division in Thawra. All the previous reports had the
police advancing block by block with no large sections being seized. To add to
the confusion, the daily
map released by the government showed the Golden Division’s latest movement
in the center of the city, but no change in the Old City. Not only that it had
new sections in the north being taken, yet this was not announced in any press
releases. Recently the 9th Division and Hashd took the towns that
were just outside of the city, but nothing else has been heard from them since
then. The Iraqi government is notorious for exaggerating and making claims
before they happen and it would seem this was another example.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 184, Apr 18, 2017
Iraqi Federal Police firing a mortar in Old City, west Mosul
(USA Today)
The Golden Division maintained its push into central west
Mosul. Its forces were still fighting
in the Thawra and Tanak neighborhoods. General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi claimed that once those two were
taken the Old City district would be mostly surrounded. In actuality the
division would just be pushing along its perimeter more. That’s what the Golden
Division has been doing for the last month. Taking the district remains the job
of the police who are only making halting progress.
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 183, Apr 17, 2017
Bulge in middle of map represent recent gains by Golden
Division in center of west Mosul. Green at top is where 9th Division
seized entrances to northwest section of city. Iraqi police still fighting over
Old City on right in grey. Green = liberated, white = IS control, blue = Tigris
River (Ninewa Media Center)
The Iraqi police were still attempting to seize the Grand
Mosque in the Old City district of west Mosul. They were fighting in the Farouq
neighborhood of the district. At the same time, the Islamic State counterattacked
and forced them out of the Kornish Street area. The police spent the day
attempting to drive off the insurgents. The Iraqi police only recently
restarted their effort in the Old City after a month long pause. Their progress
has still been extremely slow due to the tough defenses of the Islamic State
and the dense layout, which has reduced most of the fighting to house to house,
room to room.
Monday, April 17, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 181-182, Apr 15-16, 2017
The Golden Division was said to be finally assaulting the
Old City, but that claimw as unclear. The unit was fighting in the Tanak
neighborhood, which was declared freed
on April 13, and in Thawra.
There was also a report that the
unit was pushing on the Fifth Bridge across the Tigris. The problem with that
is the Golden Division is in the center and west of Mosul, and the Fifth Bridge
is all the way on the other side of the city to the east. Also Tanak and Thawra
have been fought over since the end of March, so the division has not entered any
new areas yet. At the same time Iraqi propaganda often exaggerates progress so
these may be new areas the unit was fighting over.
Sunday, April 16, 2017
Musings On Iraq In The News
I was cited in “Bataille de Mossoul: aux
abois, les djihadistes de Daech mènent une résistance féroce” in Francesoir and by Michael Knights and Alexander Mello in "Defeat by Annihilation: Mobility and Attrition In The Islamic State's Defense of Mosul" in the CTC Sentinel.
Security In Iraq, April 1-7, 2017
The on going Battle for Mosul continued to drive violence
across Iraq in April 2017. In the rest of the country attacks have been going
steadily down for the last few months, especially in places like Baghdad, which
has seen the fewest incidents and casualties in years.
There were 169 incidents in Iraq from April 1-7 reported in
the press. That was the most since 171 from March 8-14. There were 88 incidents
in Ninewa, followed by 32 in Baghdad, 17 in Diyala, 9 in Salahaddin, 9 in
Anbar, 7 in Kirkuk, 3 in Basra, 3 in Babil, and 1 in Najaf.
Saturday, April 15, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 180, Apr 14, 2017
Map comparing WMosul April 4 (top) to April 14, 2017 (bottom). The police
have made no movement for a month in the Old City (grey area) to the right. The
Golden Division on the other hand has moved up into the center of the city. The
9th Division and Hashd also just took the towns leading to the
entrance to Mosul from the northwest. Green = liberated, white = IS controlled,
blue = Tigris river (Ninewa Media Center)
ISF using jamming devices against IS UAVs Mosul (Baghdad
Post)
Friday, April 14, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 179, Apr 13, 2017
Dots represent destroyed sites in Mosul observed by the UN.
Different colors represent different types of structures such as red for
commercial, yellow for housing. (UN Human Settlements Program)
The big news of the day on the military front was that the 9th
Division and Hashd almost reached west Mosul. They took
five towns
just on the outskirts of the city. These forces have been caught up clearing
the Badush district to the west for the last two months, cutting off escape
routes for the Islamic State. It is assumed that they will eventually assault
the city itself and open a new front in the northwest.
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 178, Apr 12, 2017
The Golden Division remains the most active unit in west
Mosul. They were still fighting
in Abar and Tank in the center of the front. The police restarted their assault
upon the Old City and received reinforcements
from the Interior Ministry. The attack on the Old City stalled several weeks
ago leading to a change in strategy with the Golden Division pushing up the
middle to try to surround the district, while the police held down the Islamic
State. The Golden Division have not joined the fight in the Old City yet so it
is unclear whether that operation has really renewed or not.
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 177, Apr 11, 2017
The grey area in the east along the Tigris River is the Old
City, where the police have been holding down the Islamic State. The bulges in
the middle of the front are where the Golden Division has been making its
advances in recent weeks. Green = Liberated, White = IS Control, Blue = Tigris River. (Nineveh Media Center)
Both the police and Counter Terrorism Forces (CTF) – Golden
Division were at work in west Mosul. On April 10
the Golden Division was fighting in Tanak, Abar, Aruba, and Matahen. That last
neighborhood was declared freed
the day before. On April 11, the unit was said to be clearing Matahen, Yarmouk
and Maghreb. Maghreb was liberated on April
5, and Yarmouk on April
10. These are all areas in the center and western sections of the city,
where the CTF have been making steady advances. The Federal Police and Rapid
Reaction Division on the other hand, have claimed they were pushing towards the
Grand Mosque in the Old City section in the east each day, but in reality they
were not making any serious movement. This was continuously denied over the
last few weeks, but was finally admitted in an announcement
that they re-started their attack upon the Old City. The Federal Police assaulted
three strongpoints of the Islamic State near the Grand Mosque. IS was said
to be retreating from the district, and forcing civilians to go with them as
human shields. The operation against the Old City quickly ground to a halt due
to the dense layout, narrow streets, and tough Islamic State defenses. That
forced a re-think of tactics and strategy. Reports of heavy civilian casualties
caused more delays as well.
Tuesday, April 11, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 176, Apr 10, 2017
There was little activity in west Mosul again as the Iraqi
forces (ISF) were preparing a new offensive against the Old City district along
the Tigris River. The Yarmouk and Sakak neighborhoods were officially
declared freed by the Golden Division. The unit took the first half of Yarmouk
on April
3 and then the second half on April
6. Despite the announcement there was heavy fighting
in both areas. The Golden Division have moved up into the western and central
sections of the city, while the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division have
held down Islamic State units in the Old City. That area is to be surrounded
and then attacked. This operation is behind schedule however due to heavy
civilian casualties.
Monday, April 10, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 174-175, Apr 8-9, 2017
Palm Sunday services held for first time in three years in
church in Qaraqosh, Ninewa, which was burned by Islamic State (Reuters)
The Iraqi forces (ISF) are only carrying out minimal
operations in west Mosul in preparation for an impending big push to seize the
Old City district. On April 8
the Federal Police claimed it achieved a breakthrough in the Zinjali
neighborhood in the Old City. The police said this cut off some Islamic State
supply routes to the area. The next day Federal Police commander General Shakir
Jawadat stated
that 60% of the defenses around the Grand Mosque in the Old City were
destroyed. Iraqi propaganda is anything but consistent since Golden Division
General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi was quoted
in the press a week before that all the defenses were breached. Whatever the
percentage is the Iraqi police have been inching towards the mosque for weeks
now. Finally the Golden Division seized
the Matahen neighborhood in central west Mosul. That unit has been moving up
the western and central section of the city to try to encircle the Old City,
which is now surrounded on two sides by the ISF with a third running along the
Tigris River. The final push into this area should be coming soon. According to
Al
Mada the operation was supposed to have already started, but was delayed
due to heavy civilian casualties.
Sunday, April 9, 2017
Musings On Iraq In The News
I was mentioned by Ben Watson and Kevin Baron in “Trump
leans on China, North Korea; Dunford takes Kushner to Iraq; Egypt at the WH; #SAS2017
livestream; Q&A on Space War; And a bit more” for Defense One. I was cited in "A house divided, Political relations and coalition-building between Iraq's Shi'a" by Erwin van Veen, Nick Grinstead, Floor El Kamouni-Janssen for the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, and in "Trump's strike on Syria: A convenient distraction" by Ibrahim al-Marashi for Al Jazeera. My interview with Charlie Winter on how the Islamic State is dealing with its defeat in Mosul was reprinted by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence.
6,732 Dead and Wounded In Iraq In March 2017
6,732 people died or were wounded in Iraq in March 2017.
That compared to 4,290 casualties in February. It was the highest figure since
13,184 dead and injured were reported in December 2016. The cause of the huge
increase was the fighting in Mosul. In the middle of February the government
re-started its campaign by assaulting the western half of the city. The dense
layout, the use of human shields by the Islamic State and its indiscriminate
attack upon civilians, and an increase in air strikes, mortars and artillery by
the Coalition and Iraqi forces have all contributed to the rising number of
fatalities and injured. At the same time, because the government is not
reporting casualties and there is only limited access to the front in Mosul the
recorded numbers should be considered a minimum.
Saturday, April 8, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 172-173, Apr 6-7, 2017
Most of the Iraqi advances in Mosul have been in the west
such as Yarmouk (far left), which was just captured by the Golden Division
(Institute for the Study of War)
The Iraqi forces (ISF) have been preparing for a new
offensive in west Mosul. That has resulted in a relative pause in operations.
On April 6 the Golden Division did take Yarmouk
2 in the western side of the city. Otherwise the ISF were preparing to
storm the Old City in the east along the Tigris River. General Najim Abdullah
al-Jabouri of the Ninewa Operations Command said
that the attack upon the Old City would rely less on airstrikes due to civilian
casualties.
Friday, April 7, 2017
Next Phase Against The Islamic State Cutting Its Finances, Interview With RAND’s Patrick Johnston
The Islamic State is on its way to being defeated in the
Battle of Mosul. Afterward it is likely to lose its remaining territory in
Iraq. It is already transitioning back to an insurgency however. To finally
stamp out the group its funding needs to be cut off. That can’t be done on the
battlefield however, but through intelligence and law enforcement. Recently the
RAND Corporation published a report on the group’s finances entitled “Financial Futures
of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.” To talk about the next step
against the Islamic State is one of the paper’s authors Patrick Johnston. He
can be followed on Twitter @JOHNSTON.
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 170-171, Apr 4-5, 2017
Federal Police fighting in Old City, West Mosul (Reuters)
The Iraqi Air Force once again dropped
flyers over Mosul telling the citizens to stay in their homes. In the past such
actions have preceded a new offensive by the Iraqi forces (ISF). One is about
overdue as the police have made no real advances in the Old City for several
weeks now.
Wednesday, April 5, 2017
Plight Of Civilians In The Battle For Mosul, Interview With Amnesty International’s Donatella Rovera
As the battle for Mosul enters its sixth month there are
growing concerns about the damage and casualties it is causing. The Jadida
incident where a Coalition air strike was blamed for over two hundred civilian
deaths highlighted the rising costs incurred from the fighting. To help
describe the situation is Amnesty International’s Donatella Rovera who has been
interviewing people in Mosul and Ninewa during the campaign. She can be
followed on Twitter @DRovera.
Tuesday, April 4, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 169, Apr 3, 2017
Most of the fighting has been in the western section of the
front (red circle) by the Golden Division. Green = liberated. Red = frontline. White = Islamic State control (Iraqi Day)
There has been no real advances in the Old City along the
Tigris River in west Mosul for several weeks now as can be seen by comparing these two maps from March 27 vs April 3, 2017. Green = liberated. Red = frontline. Gold = Islamic State control (Iraqi
Day)
After a couple slow days the Iraqi forces (ISF) announced
some new advances. The Yarmouk and Nahrawan neighborhoods were freed in the
west and there was fighting in Matahen and Aghawat. The Golden Division has
moved up into the center and western section of west Mosul, while the Federal
Police and Rapid Reaction Division were still concerned with the Old City
district. The police were opening
up routes for civilians to leave that area to try to clear the battlefield
before launching a new operation there. As usual, bad weather has been holding
up air support, and in turn the Iraqi ground forces.
Monday, April 3, 2017
Mosul Campaign Day 168, Apr 2, 2017
The last few days have been slow for the Iraqi forces (ISF)
inside west Mosul. The Golden Division recaptured
the Rajim al-Hadid neighborhood that the Islamic State seized the day before.
That was the first time the insurgents were able to take any territory in the
Mosul battle. There was still fighting in Yarmouk
in the west as well. The Golden Division claimed it had freed the area on March
22. Otherwise there were no advances reported. The ISF is now in control of
roughly 60%
of the western section of the city.
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