Islamic State Disappearing In Iraq While Pro-Iran Groups Return To The Field

 

October was marked by two major trends. First, the Islamic State continued to fade from Iraq. Second, pro-Iran groups restarted attacks upon U.S. targets due to the war in Gaza.

 

There were only two incidents involving the Islamic State during the month. That was a new post-2003 low in violence. On October 22 in Salahaddin a gunman opened fire on a group of civilians injuring four while on October 24 in Kirkuk the Counter-Terror Service set an ambush for a group of militants which led to a gun battle and one of the insurgents detonating a suicide vest.  The former was the only actual attack by the Islamic State during the month. It had not carried out an operation since September 22. That meant there was a one month span when IS was completely inactive in the country.

 

The group has largely disappeared in Iraq having failed to rebuild its manpower and networks. It is solely focused upon surviving which is why it is not carrying out attacks because it can’t afford any loses.

 

On the other hand pro-Iran Hashd have started going after the Americans again because of the war in Gaza. The attacks began on October 18 with strikes upon Al-Assad airbase in Anbar and al-Harir airbase in Irbil. Since them there have been a total of 10 assaults on Al-Assad and 5 on Al-Harir during the month. 4 U.S. soldiers were wounded in Anbar.

 

These attacks are not meant to cause any casualties however. That would bring about American retaliation which has already happened in Syria. The Iraqis want to avoid that. These are just meant to show that these factions are standing with the Palestinians. There is a fear within the Iraqi government that if the groups begin attacking the U.S. embassy there could be U.S. airstrikes in Iraq. Baghdad is already worried that the on-going drone and rocket incidents are ruining Iraq’s business and diplomatic environment. The problem of course is that while these Hashd units are part of the administration Prime Minister Sudani has no control over them.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Oct 1-7	Oct 8-14	Oct 15-21	Oct 22-28	Oct 29-31	Totals
Anbar	-	-	3 Pro-Iran	4 Pro-Iran	3 Pro-Iran	10 Pro-Iran
Irbil	-	-	4 Pro-Iran	1 Pro-Iran	-	5 Pro-Iran
Kirkuk			-	1	-	1
Salahaddin	-	-	-	1	-	1
TOTAL	-	-	7 Pro-Iran	7/5 Pro-Iran	3 Pro-Iran	17/15 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Oct 1-7	Oct 8-14	Oct 15-21	Oct 22-28	Oct 29-31	Totals
Anbar	-	-	-	4W	-	4W
Salahaddin	-	-	-	4W	-	4W
TOTAL	-	-	-	8W	-	8W

 

Security In Iraq 2022-23

Week	Security Incidents (Total/By IS)	Dead (Total/By IS)	Wounded (Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7	18/9	3	4
Jan 8-14	35/21	3	18
Jan 15-21	12/5	17	12
Jan 22-28	16/3	8	19
Jan 29-31	6/2	2	6
JAN	87/41	33	59
Feb 1-7	11/3	1	10
Feb 8-14	14/6	8	3
Feb 15-21	9/1	-	11
Feb 22-28	8/4	1	5
FEB	42/14	10	29
Mar 1-7	7/3	1	-
Mar 8-14	18/3/1	6	5
Mar 15-21	10/4	5	6
Mar 22-28	6/1	7	4
Mar 29-31	4/1	-	5
MAR	46/12/1	19	21
Apr 1-7	16/8	-	6
Apr 8-14	21/7	8	25
Apr 15-21	22/2	10	22
Apr 22-28	44/4	14	44
Apr 29-30	6/1	2	6
APR	111/22	34	103
May 1-7	31/3	8	25
May 8-14	9/2	2	7
May 15-21	18/6	10	6
May 22-28	13/1	21	11
May 29-31	2/1	-	2
MAY	73/13	41	51
Jun 1-7	6/2	-	8
Jun 8-14	12/4	1	9
Jun 15-21	10/2	5	2
Jun 22-28	12/6	1	14
Jun 29-30	-	-	-
JUN	40/14	7	33
Jul 1-7	7/1	6	11
Jul 8-14	3	-	2
Jul 15-21	11/2	14	16
Jul 22-28	18/7	9	21
Jul 29-31	4	4	4
JUL	43/6	33	54
Aug 1-7	9/1	6	15
Aug 8-14	14	2	14
Aug 15-21	7/2	-	6
Aug 22-28	23/4	14	15
Aug 29-31	4	2	4
AUG	57/7/1	24	54
Sep 1-7	11/1	3	20
Sep 8-14	5	-	12
Sep 15-21	12	4	14
Sep 22-28	10/2 M	2	16
Sep 29-30	3/1 M	-	2
SEP	41/1/3 M	9	64
Oct 1-7	9/2 M	6	16
Oct 8-14	8/2/1 M	5	19
Oct 15-21	6	4	7
Oct 22-28	3	2	1
Oct 29-31	2	-	2
OCT	28/2/3 M	17	45
Nov 1-7	7	1	3
Nov 8-14	6	1	8
Nov 15-21	8	7	17
Nov 22-28	2	1	-
Nov 29-30	-	-	-
NOV	23	10	28
Dec 1-7	13/1	6	11
Dec 8-14	6	7	8
Dec 15-21	6	29	15
Dec 22-28	6	-	4
Dec 29-31	2	-	-
DEC	33/1	42	38
Jan 1-7	7	4	2
Jan 8-14	6/1	5	2
Jan 15-21	11/1	2	7
Jan 22-28	5/2	1	2
Jan 29-31	1	-	2
JAN	29/4	12	15
Feb 1-7	6/2	1	5
Feb 8-14	1	-	2
Feb 15-21	4	4	8
Feb 22-28	9/1	7	3
FEB	20/3	12	18
Mar 1-7	3	10	4
Mar 8-14	2	2	1
Mar 15-21	2	1	3
Mar 22-28	1	2	-
Mar 29-31	1	3	-
MAR	9	18	8
Apr 1-7	5	1	7
Apr 8-14	4	-	1
Apr 15-21	5	3	-
Apr 22-28	2	1	-
Apr 29-30	1	1	-
APR	16	6	8
May 1-7	2	1	1
May 8-14	6	4	3
May 15-21	3	2	6
May 22-28	3	1	3
May 29-31	2	-	3
MAY	15	8	14
Jun 1-7	-	-	-
Jun 8-14	4	7	4
Jun 15-21	2	1	2
Jun 22-28	4	2	4
Jun 29-30	-	-	-
JUN	10	10	10
Jul 1-7	1	-	-
Jul 8-14	3	2	1
Jul 15-21	2	-	1
Jul 22-28	2	-	2
Jul 29-31	3/2	-	-
JUL	11/2	2	4
Aug 1-7	4	-	4
Aug 8-14	2	1	3
Aug 15-21	2	-	5
Aug 22-28	2	-	2
Aug 29-31	3/1	1	9
AUG	13/1	2	23
Sep 1-7	1	-	1
Sep 8-14	1	1	-
Sep 15-21	2	-	4
Sep 22-28	1	1	1
Sep 29-30	-	-	-
SEP	5	2	6
Oct 1-7	-	-	-
Oct 8-14	-	-	-
Oct 15-21	7 Pro-Iran	-	-
Oct 22-28	7/5 Pro-Iran	-	8
10/29-31	3 Pro-Iran	-	-
OCT	17/15 Pro-Iran	-	8

 

SOURCES

 

Asharq Al-Awsat, "US Says Thwarts Drone Attack on Its Troops in Iraq," 10/18/23

 

Bechocha, Julian, "Iran=backed Iraqi militia says drone struck US base in Erbil," 10/18/23

 

NINA, "The Anti-Terrorism Service kills (3) terrorists after clashes in Kirkuk," 10/24/23

 

Shafaq, "A missile bombardment targets Ain al-Assad base in Anbar," 10/24/23

 

Al Sumaria, "Four citizens were injured by gunfire south of Salahaddin," 10/22/23