Iraq Finds Itself Caught Between The US and Iran Over Forming The Next Government

  

Prime Minister designate Ali al-Zaidi is coming under increasing pressure from both the United States and Iran over the direction of his cabinet. The two powers are diametrically opposed to each other leading to a deadlock in talks over forming the next government.

 

As the Iran War drags on the U.S. is pushing Iraq to disarm Tehran’s allies the Resistance and deny them a role in the government. Washington is demanding that the factions be disarmed and disbanded, that they be removed from the budget, and that they not get any positions in Zaidi’s government down to the level of director general. The leader of the Hikma list told Iraqi News that the Trump administration threatened not to work with Baghdad if the Resistance got any cabinet positions. America has already cut off delivering Iraq’s oil revenues which are deposited in the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. This is crippling the government which has a huge budget.

 

On the other hand, Iran wants its Iraqi friends to not back down. Tehran told the Resistance that it had to be integrated into all institutions to solidify its hold over the government. This message was pushed by Quds Force commander General Esmail Qaani who has been in Baghdad twice in the last few weeks. In his most recent visit he told the Resistance not to make any concessions about giving up their weapons.

 

This puts Zaidi in between a rock and a hard place. He has to get access to his country’s oil revenues otherwise the government will go broke and there will be protests by the public who rely upon the state for jobs, pensions and services. On the other hand, Iran is Iraq’s neighbor, largest trade partner and funds many of the ruling parties. The Resistance has also not backed down from using force against the police and army. So far most of the Iraqi media points to the elite looking for ways to appease the U.S. with cosmetic measures to try to ease the pressure while not changing the nature of the Resistance. Iran also thinks it can outlast President Trump. The problem is Iraq will be the victim of this power struggle between the two nations with few cards to play.

 

SOURCES

 

Al Mada, “The “Framework” Surprised by the Scale of US Support … Did it Blunder by Nominating Al-Zaidi?” 5/11/26

- “From Guns to Offices: Quiet Arrangements Reshape the Role of Factions,” 5/5/26

- “The “Old Guard” Encircles the Government … and the “Framework” Fears a Revolt by Al-Zaidi,” 5/12/26

 

Mahmoud, Sinan, “Iranian commander Quant makes unannounced visit to Baghdad as Iraqi government takes shape,” The National, 5/12/26

 

Al-Samarraie, Jawad, “PM-Designate Ali Al Zaidi struggles with cabinet and US Veto,” Iraqi News, 5/12/26

 

Sassoon, Mustafa, “Exclusive: Iran Sets Three Conditions on Iraq’s Next Government,” Al Hurra, 5/11/26

 

Shafaq News, “Iranian reservations over Al-Zaidi drive Quant’s trip to Iraq,” 5/10/26