Mosul Campaign, Day Thirty-Eight, Nov 23, 2016

There were no new advances announced in eastern Mosul on November 23, 2016. The Golden and 9^th Divisions were still fighting over some of the newer neighborhoods it entered into over the last few weeks. Qahira was attacked, which was initially entered on November 20. There was also continued fighting in Mufti, Salam, Sabawi Younis, Palestine and Nassir. Younis Sabawi was originally attacked on November 11, Palestine on November 13, and Nassir and Mufti on November 17. In the more secure areas, the Golden Division was also trying to dismantle IEDs. A general from the unit told the press that the Islamic State was weakening, but that wasn’t apparent from the news.  

A few casualties from the city were reported. 6 civilians were killed and 30 wounded by Islamic State mortar fire, and a sniper killed two more. The day before IS was said to have beheaded 15 soldiers it captured. CNN talked with a Peshmerga commander, U.N. and health officials that hospitals in Irbil were receiving up to 80-90 casualties per day, mostly civilians. Authorities said that the health centers in the city were being overwhelmed by the amount of people arriving finding it difficult to find enough beds and medicines for them.

To the west the Hashd cut the road from Mosul to Sinjar and onto Syria. It still had not encircled Tal Afar, but the ensuing battle for it was leading almost all of the families that resided there to flee. Around 3,000 were said to have left with half heading towards Syria and the others going towards Kurdish held areas.

In the southeast the 9^th Division freed several more towns including Qara Tapa.

Finally, air strikes took out a member of the IS leadership and another bridge in Mosul. There are five bridges that cross the Tigris River. A fourth one was hit by the U.S. led Coalition. The Americans are hoping to limit the ability of the militants to travel across the city. An air strike was also believed to have killed the Islamic State’s Minister of Information for Ninewa Ziyad Kharufa.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "ISIS shelling kills 6 civilians, wounds 30 others near Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/23/16

Agence France Presse, “Iraq forces cut off IS-held Mosul from Syria,” 11/23/16

ARA News, "Islamic State executes 15 Iraqi soldiers in Mosul," 11/23/16

BBC, “Mosul battle: Iraq militias ‘cut off IS access to city,’” 11/23/16

Coles, Isabel and Hameed, Saif, “Civilians flee as Shi’ite fighters near flashpoint town near Mosul,” Reuters, 11/23/16

Dewan, Angela and Tawfeeq, Mohammed, “Mosul completely surrounded by Iraqi-led troops, paramilitary forces say,” CNN, 11/23/16

Al Forat, "Al Forat Announces incursion into five neighborhoods on Mosul's left coast, and continued clearing of Tal Afar Airport," 11/17/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 13, 2016," 11/13/16

Al Maalomah, "Martyrdom of two displaced people by criminal Daesh sniper east Mosul," 11/23/16

Al Mada, "Breaking into eight districts and increases pressure on Daesh on the left coast," 11/11/16

Al Masalah, "Ninewa We Are Coming declares freeing eight villages in the western axis," 11/23/16

New Sabah, "Break in the fight against terrorism in Qahira, one of the largest neighborhoods in the left coast of Mosul," 11/23/16

Rudaw, "Iraqi army makes gains southeast of Mosul," 11/23/16

- "ISIS leader among militants killed in Mosul district," 11/20/16

Mosul Campaign, Day Thirty-Seven, Nov 22, 2016

The Golden Division reached one more sector of eastern Mosul, but was mostly trying to clear what it already gained. Zuhur was the newest neighborhood breached by the elite division. Otherwise the unit was trying to consolidate its areas, which have seen constant fighting since the city was reached on October 31.

The Hashd were still trying to encircle Tal Afar to the west. In the process it freed five new villages. When the forces do reach the town, it is likely to set off another round of threats from Turkey that has warned that it does not want the Hashd to take the village.

Iraq Oil Report received news that the water in the western half of the city has been shut off. There have also been stories of food shortages and the lack of other basic necessities.

Finally, the number of displaced has leveled off in the last few days. When Mosul was reached on October 31, there were 17,748 displaced registered with aid groups. When the Iraqi forces pushed farther into the city that number skyrocketed to 61,674 by November 11, and then 68,520 on November 20. By November 22 that figure had slightly dropped to 68,112. Of that total, 59,208 or 86.9% are from Mosul, and 98% are residing in Ninewa province. Still, only a small fraction of Mosul has been reached so far. As the Iraqi forces push farther in, more people are likely to flee.

SOURCES

Bas News, "Iraq Forces Liberate New District, Nearing Center of Mosul," 11/22/16

Al Forat, "Popular crowd frees northern village of Sharia," 11/22/16

International Organization for Migration, “IOM Iraq Emergency Tracking: Mosul Operations, Data Snapshot: 22 November 2016,” 11/22/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Nov. 22, 2016,” 11/22/16

Al Maalomah, "Hezbollah Brigades liberated three villages and the road link between Tal Afar and Sinjar," 11/22/16

Xinhua, “Iraqi paramilitary forces launch operation to encircle IS-held Tal Afar,” 11/22/16

Mosul Campaign, Day Thirty-Six, Nov 21, 2016

Two new areas of eastern Mosul were freed. The 9^th Division was able to clear Salam and Abbas in the northeast of the city. Salam was originally attacked on November 11, while Abbas was just reached. The Golden Division was trying to secure the neighborhoods it had already reached, conducting house-to-house searches. Together the two units have entered 36 areas of eastern Mosul. Almost all of them remain contested however as the Islamic State has been able to re-infiltrate and counter attack in nearly all of them.

This Rudaw Map shows areas that the Golden and 9th Divisions have entered in eastern Mosul. Red is for secured, Pink is contested. Many of the Red areas however are still witnessing fighting.

The U.S.-led Coalition took out one of the major bridges in Mosul. The Tigris River bisects the city, and there are five major spans across it. The Coalition has now knocked out three trying to limit the ability of the Islamic State to traverse the Mosul.

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) made progress in the north and south as well. The 9^th Division freed five towns in the south, and the 16^th Division coming down from the north liberated three more. Both forces were talking about reaching Mosul itself last week, but didn’t. When they do they will help take the pressure off the Golden Division and elements of the 9^th, which are facing the brunt of the heavy urban fighting within the city.

The authorities have not been releasing their losses as usual, but the United Nations’ World Health Organization (WHO) did provide a small sample. From October 18 to November 12 it recorded 379 people, 59 civilians and 320 military personnel going to Irbil for treatment.

Finally, there was still blowback from some parties in Baghdad against comments made by Kurdish President Massoud Barzani. On November 14, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Douglas Silliman mentioned that Kurdistan had agreed to withdraw from all the territory that it liberated during the campaign as part of a deal Washington helped negotiate between Baghdad and Irbil. Two days later, Barzani said that the Kurds had no intention of leaving any Kurdish areas. The prime minister’s office reminded Barzani that their agreement was still in effect, and then Barzani replied that his statements were not translated correctly, and that Irbil would honor the deal. Later, comments by a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq were posted on social media saying that the army and Hashd could take the ground from the Peshmerga. Barzani’s office hoped those remarks were not true, but also went on to say that Baghdad had tried using force of arms against Kurdistan many times, but had always failed. During the war with the Islamic State, the Kurds have been able to occupy almost all of the disputed territories they claim as historically theirs. The status of those areas will have to be negotiated after Mosul is freed. Barzani is such an unpopular figure however, that whenever he talks about them he just inflames the situation.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, "Iraqi troops search for suicide car bombs in eastern Mosul," Associated Press, 11/21/16

Adel, Loaa, "Security forces fully liberate Humayra village in Nineveh," Iraqi News, 11/21/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul, Nov. 21, 2016," 11/21/16

Al Mada, "Breaking into eight districts and increases pressure on Daesh on the left coast," 11/11/16

NINA, “U.S. Ambassador To Baghdad: Peshmerga Would Withdraw From All The Liberated Areas After liberating Mosul,” 11/14/16

Rudaw, "Iraqi forces make further gains north and south of Mosul," 11/21/16

- “Kurdish presidency: Shiite leader’s remarks sound like Saddam, ISIS,” 11/21/16

World Health Organization, “Mosul Operation: Casualty cases to Emergency and West Hospital-Erbil, Iraq (from 17 October to 12 November 2016),” 11/21/16

Mosul Campaign Day Thirty-Five, Nov 20, 2016

More news came out on the advances in Mosul from November 19. Moalimin, Bakr and Aden were declared freed for the second and third times respectively, while Muharabeen and Ulama were attacked.

On November 20 Akhaa, for the second time, and Khazir were liberated, while Bakr, Zahabiya, Qadisiyah, Tahrir and Wala were being swept for IEDs. There was still fighting going on in Intisar, which was first freed on November 1, and Aden that was called liberated the day before, and Qahira and Zuhur were also attacked. Almost all of the areas that the Iraqi forces (ISF) have entered remain contested. The Islamic State has been able to re-infiltrate areas again and again usually through the extensive tunnel system it built underneath the city.

In the southwest the Hashd was consolidating its position at the Tal Afar airport. A parliamentarian claimed that there was a deal between Iraq and Turkey, negotiated by the United States, to keep the Hashd out of Tal Afar itself. A spokesman for Turkish President Recep Erdogan called on Baghdad to abide by this agreement. The Hashd have talked about taking Tal Afar since it joined the operation, so it is unclear as of now whether such an Iraq-Turkey understanding exists or not.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim and Rohan, Brian, "Iraqi troops face stiff resistance from IS in eastern Mosul," Associated Press, 11/19/16

Adel, Loaa, "Anti-Terrorism forces liberate Hayy Adan and Akhaa near Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/20/16

Bas News, "Iraqi Forces Retake Two More Neighborhoods East of Mosul," 11/17/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 1, 2016," 11/1/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, “MP unveils Baghdad-Ankara agreement limiting al-Hashed al-Shaabi combat role,” Iraqi News, 11/20/16

NINA, "A military source: Completing the liberation of Al-Baker and Aden neighborhoods, and storming the warriors area within the left-coast of the city of Mosul," 11/19/16

Rudaw, "Iraqi military reports progress on five fronts," 11/20/16

- "ISIS leader among militants killed in Mosul district," 11/20/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

- "Spotlight: IS commanders escape from Mosul amid Iraqi troop's offensive," 10/20/16

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was mentioned in "Iraq: Ba'athists" a report by the British Home Office. I was cited in “Shiite Militias Are Crashing the Mosul Offensive” by Michael Knights in Foreign Policy.

Mosul Campaign Day Thirty-Four, Nov 19, 2016

The Golden Division made more progress in eastern Mosul, while the Islamic State was counter attacking. The Moalimin neighborhood was freed, while Muharabeen and Ulama were attacked. There was still fighting going on in Tahrir and Qadisiya, which were cleared before. General Abdul Wahab al-Saddi of the division said that 10 of the 50 neighborhoods in the eastern half of Mosul were under control. With IS re-infiltration however, many of those like Qadisiyah, appear to still be contested. Reuters also reported that around 200 civilians and members of the security forces had been sent to the hospital over the last week, another sign of the heavy toll the campaign is taking on those involved.

In the south the army was still clearing villages. Two more were freed, and the 9^th Division declared all of Nimrod district liberated.

The Hashd were still working on the Tal Afar airport area in the southwest before making an assault on the town of the same name. The Hashd said that all of the airport was secured and three villages in the area were freed.

The Islamic State carried out a surprise attack on Imam Gharbi, which is south of Mosul. It held the town for several hours before air strikes and the Iraqi forces drove them out.

Buzz Feed spent some time with a Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC) team in Mosul. The teams work with the U.S. led Coalition to call in air strikes. Usually an American accompanies them, but the one that the journalists visited was operating on its own, although a French intelligence officer was present. That day, they were working with 2 Apaches helicopters, a drone, and fighter jets. Their main job was trying to destroy car bombs before they hit the Iraqi forces (ISF). Two major problems were the speed with which some of the vehicle borne improvised explosive devices came in they could not be struck, and the other was the amount of civilians, which sometimes meant air strikes had to be called off to stop any collateral damage. 

Finally, the Associated Press witnessed the re-opening of a church in Bashiqa. The cross on top of the building, which the Islamic State had taken down was replaced, the church bells rung, and a service held. Unfortunately most of the town was completely destroyed in the fighting making this event just one of many that will be needed to restore life.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim and Rohan, Brian, "Iraqi troops face stiff resistance from IS in eastern Mosul," Associated Press, 11/19/16

Bas News, "20 Civilians Killed by IS Mortar Shells in Eastern Mosul," 11/19/16

Giglio, Mike, “This Is How Ground Troops In Mosul Are Calling US Airstrikes On ISIS,” Buzz Feed, 11/19/16

Hashd, Tawfeeq, Mohammed and Formanek, Ingrid, "Iraqi forces recapture key air base near Mosul," CNN, 11/16/16

Kalin, Stephen, "Civilian casualties from Mosul are overwhelming capacity, U.N. warns," Reuters, 11/19/16

Al Maalomah, "Security forces destroyed two truck bombs norhteast Mosul," 11/19/16

Al Mada, "Anti-terrorism forces free Moalimin neighborhood east Mosul," 11/19/16

Rudaw, "LIVE UPDATES: Battle for Mosul, Day 34," 11/19/16

Shafaq News, "Iraqi forces say they liberated Nimrod district," 11/19/16

- "Popular crowd repels attack and frees three villages surrounding Tal Afar Airport," 11/19/16

Attempt To Shut Out Iraq’s Small Parties Before 2017 Elections

Iraq’s next elections in April 2017 are for provincial councils, although they could be delayed until the next year because of the war. So far the main talk about the vote is to change the election law to favor the large parties to ensure their domination of the local governments.

There are two efforts underway to change the voting process to favor the big lists. One is to reduce the number of seats on each provincial council. Parties want to recalculate how many seats would be up for election based upon the population. One parliamentarian said that each province would start with 11 seats and then gain 1 more for every 250,000 residents. The second project is to change how votes are counted. In the previous two elections Iraq used the Sainte-Lague system that helped small parties gain office. Politicians are now calling for a new process to be used. In both cases, the large lists are trying to make it more difficult for the small ones to gain council seats.

The major parties have complained that after the 2009 provincial vote the ruling alliances proved too difficult to manage with so many parties involved. They now want to try to eliminate that possibility by changing the system so that large parties like State of Law, Kurdistan Democratic Party, Mutahidun, etc. would get most of the seats. There are positives and negatives to limiting the number of victors. The fewer actors involved would theoretically make deal making and compromise easier. On the other hand, the ruling parties are largely seen as corrupt and political failures. Bringing in new parties could start the process of either making the older lists change or be superseded. What happened after the last local elections was that the smaller lists offered opportunities for new alliances. Iraq is still a young democracy so it is still in the process of developing its party politics so attempts at change and consolidation can be expected in the future.

SOURCES

Buratha News, “The political blocs are going to reduce the number of provincial seats in the upcoming elections,” 8/3/16

Habib, Mustafa, “The Waiting Game: Iraq’s Many Problems Threaten Postponement Of 2017 Elections,” Niqash, 9/22/16

Al Mada, “Blocs considering amending the election law to exclude potential competitors and postponement,” 10/9/16

- “Political parties are preparing for provincial elections to amend the election law and restructure the Election Commission,” 7/25/16

- “A third amendment to the provincial council law cutting in half their members and eliminate the districts,” 9/25/16