Hint At Hashd Al-Shaabi Loses In Iraq War?

The Hashd al-Shaabi were formed in June 2014 after a fatwa by Grand Ayatollah Sistani called on Iraqis to defend their country. Since then they have been involved in almost all of the major battles in Iraq. While the press has reported on some of their losses, the Hashd itself makes no official announcements about its casualties. Most of the time it reports its dead on social media like Facebook, and via martyrdom posters. Recently two articles gave rough estimates on Hashd losses.

Hashd leaders gave casualty figures to the press twice, but they could be exaggerated to gain political points for the groups’ sacrifices in the war against the Islamic State. First, in December 2015, the secretary general of the Sayid al-Shuhada Brigades was quoted in Al-Sumaria saying that there had been 20,000 Hashd casualties since the start of the war. Then in March 2016 the Associated Press reported that 5,000 Hashd had died and 16,000 were injured fighting IS. From June 2014 to February 2016 there have only been 3,341 deaths and 3,981 wounded amongst the Hashd in the media. Even if the dead were close to the actual figure the wounded number is way off. There are usually 2-4 times as many wounded as dead and those two are almost equal when it comes to the Hashd. That doesn’t mean the two numbers in the articles were correct either. Hashd officials could be inflating their losses to gain more power and prestige from their role in the war. By saying that they had lost so many men they could be asking for more influence within the government and for more funding. Still, the figures are believable because the compilation of daily press releases are obviously being censored hence the dead and wounded being so close. What the real numbers are may never be known, but these two reports may provide a rough estimate of some of the costs of the war.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Martyrs Briagde: The Engineer bought weapons for defense valued at $300 million,” 12/2/15

Hendawi, Hamza and Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Fears in Iraqi government, army over Shiite militias’ power,” Associated Press, 3/21/16

U.S. Expanding Military Role In Iraq

The Americans are sending in more troops to Iraq and expanding their area of operation within the country. That was recently highlighted when a U.S. marine was killed in Ninewa, which led to the revelation of a firebase being set up in the province. This larger involvement is meant to help the Iraqi forces expand their offensive capabilities to clear out Anbar and Ninewa governorates.

The idea of sending U.S. forces to more bases in Iraq has been talked about for months. Back in June 2015 when 450 soldiers were being sent to the Taqadum base near Ramadi in Anbar, Reuters reported that the Obama administration were thinking about more such arrangements in the country so that it could expand its advise and assist mission to the Iraqi forces. In October Defense Secretary Ash Carter told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the White House wanted to start ground actions against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The talk was of carrying out more raids against IS commanders and leaders, but it was quickly revealed that meant troops in bases taking on a larger role. In November and December it was revealed that American soldiers in Anbar were firing artillery and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) starting in the summer to support the Ramadi offensive. That provided another platform for the U.S. to use along with its air strikes, which proved crucial to breaking down IS’s defenses in the city, and its eventual liberation. These forces are now going to support the Iraqi forces operations to clear out the rest of the province.

After that success the U.S. began focusing upon Mosul. In January 2016 it was announced that the American military was thinking of putting its forces in bases in Ninewa. That was exactly what happened but secretly at first. Marines from the 26^th Expeditionary Unit built Firebase Bell in Makhmour, Ninewa at the start of March. They brought artillery with them to support the new offensive in that district. It’s been speculated that if HIMARS were deployed there they could reach Mosul and provide close support to advancing Iraqi forces all the way up to the city. Their presence was revealed when a Marine was killed in an IS rocket attack upon the base in the middle of the month. There may be further forward placements in the future as hinted at by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford and Defense Secretary Carter. Already the number of troops has passed the 3,870 that are officially there to around 5,000 using “temporary” deployments to mask their presence.

The United States was very slow in joining the fight against the Islamic State. That brought a huge amount of criticism and mistrust by Iraqis. Washington and its western Coalition is now the main military backer of Baghdad, especially since Iran is more involved in Syria and the Russian operations there. The U.S. is quickly expanding its role in Iraq, and taking part in combat even though it will not admit it publicly. Its role is still constrained by Iraqi politics with anti-American factions like the Sadrists and pro-Iranian parties like Badr and parts of State of Law being opposed to more U.S. involvement. Still, it appears the President Obama and Prime Minister Haidar Abadi have been able to expand the American role on the ground, which will help in the coming effort to take back territory form the Islamic State.

SOURCES

Cooper, Helene, “U.S. May Put Forces at Iraqi Bases in Effort to Retake Mosul,” New York Times, 1/22/16

Gibbons-Neff, Thomas, “Behind the scenes in the Marine Corps mission against the Islamic State,” Washington Post, 12/22/15

Miklaszewski, Jim and Kube, Courtney, “Ashton Carter: U.S. to Begin ‘Direct Action on the Ground’ in Iraq, Syria,” NBC News, 10/27/15

Morgan, Wesley, “How the U.S. campaign in Iraq has escalated with a new weapon: rocket artillery,” Washington Post, 11/24/15

Rogoway, Tyler, “Shadowy Marine Artillery Base In Iraq Attacked Again After Deadly ISIS Rocket Strike,” Foxtrot Alpha, 3/24/16

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “US ‘builds combat base in Iraq’s Anbar province to fight IS,’” Middle East Eye, 3/24/16

- “US combat troops in anti-IS Mosul offensive,” Middle East Eye, 3/24/16

Schogol, Jeff, “Marines in Iraq technically not in combat but still getting some,” Marine Corps Times, 3/25/16

Starr, Barbara, “U.S. sets up firebase in Northern Iraq,” CNN, 3/20/16

Stewart, Phil, “U.S. military considering more Anbar-style hubs in Iraq: officer,” Reuters, 6/11/15

Tilghman, Andrew, “The Pentagon is planning to send more combat troops into Iraq,” Military Times, 3/25/16

The Unknown Story Of US Outreach To Iraq’s Shiite Militias, Interview With Richard Welch

During the Surge it was well known that one of the winning strategies employed by the United States was to reach out to different insurgent groups and try to get them to turn on the Islamic State. That eventually led to the Sahwa. What is far less known was that the Americans also had a series of talks with Shiite armed groups as well that were opposed to the occupation. The Force Strategic Engagement Cell (FSEC) did much of this work. Richard Welch is a retired U.S. Army Colonel who was the chief of staff of the FSEC. This is an interview with Welch to discuss the little known attempts by the Americans to reconcile with the Shiite militias.

GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV VIDEO: Caucasian Foreign Fighters In Iraq and Syria

MERI VIDEO: Iraq Disputed Territories

Earliest Financing Of Iraq’s Insurgency?

While there are always accusations of foreign donors funding the Iraqi insurgency it’s largest source of funds has always come from internal sources. The earliest example of that was even before the U.S. invasion had started. On March 19, 2003 Saddam ordered $1.25 billion removed from the Central Bank of Iraq. Qusay Hussein had the Special Republican Guard take away the money in tractors to the presidential palace. Saddam believed that the U.S. was only going to launch a limited military campaign like the Gulf War and that he would remain in power afterward. His greatest fear therefore was another series of internal rebellions like what happened in 1991. He therefore wanted the cash so that he could buy off tribes and local leaders to restore order and put down any revolts after the conflict was over. After the U.S. invasion American forces recovered most of the $1.25 billion, but around $100 million was unaccounted for. Some of that money undoubtedly went to fund the nascent insurgency in those early years of the U.S. occupation.

SOURCES

Nance, Malcolm, The Terrorists Of Iraq, Inside the Strategy and Tactics of the Iraq Insurgency 2003-2014, Boca Raton, London, New York: CRC Press, 2015

Woods, Kevin with Pease, Michael, Stout, Mark, Murray, Williamson, and Lacey, James, “A View of Operation Iraqi Freedom from Saddam’s Senior Leadership,” Iraqi Perspectives Project, 3/24/06

Security In Iraq, Mar 15-21, 2016

Security in Iraq remained relatively stable during the third week of March. Attacks were down from the previous two weeks, but casualties were relatively the same. Major fighting continued in Anbar, while protests in Baghdad led to a dip in attacks there. The Islamic State continued to probe the Kurdish lines in Kirkuk and Ninewa, while things were stalemated in Salahaddin.

Attacks have gone down each week of March. After a high of 183 incidents the first week, they decreased to 168 the second week, and then 130 the third. As usual Baghdad led the nation with 58, then there were 20 in Anbar, 14 in Kirkuk, 12 in Ninewa, 10 in Salahaddin, 8 in Diyala, 7 in Babil, and one in Kurdistan.

Those attacks led to 349 killed and 409 wounded. The dead broke down to 1 U.S. Soldier, 2 Turkish soldiers, 2 Hashd al-Shaabi, 3 Peshmerga, 5 Najafi Hashd, 34 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 45 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters, 84 Sahwa, and 173 civilians. The wounded were made up of 4 Najafi Hashd, 6 Hashd, 8 U.S. soldiers, 20 Peshmerga, 27 ISF, 57 Sahwa, and 287 civilians.

By province there were 118 dead in Anbar, 84 in Ninewa, 66 in Baghdad, 45 in Kurdistan, 17 in Salahaddin, 8 in Kirkuk, 6 in Babil, and 5 in Diyala.

Anbar remained the focus of the Iraqi forces. A new operation was launched this month in the Hit district. That caused approximately 10,000 people to flee the area. Mohammadi was attacked on March 16, and then cleared the next day. Hit itself was then surrounded, several neighborhoods were said to be cleared, and then Kubaisa, which is to the West was declared freed as well. Then the military told the press that no advances had been made into Hit, and that Kubaisa was still under IS control. By the end of the week the offensive was actually called off. The official cause was to allow civilians to evacuate the area, but then Agence France Presse reported that the protests in Baghdad actually led to troops being re-deployed from Hit back to the capital.

There were government operations in other parts of Anbar as well. Albu Obeid in the Ramadi district and two towns in the Garma district were cleared, the effort to free Albu Shijil outside Fallujah was on going, and a new sweep through Khalidiya Island was made. The government also announced that 100 ISF and Sahwa had died removing IEDs from the Ramadi area, and another 50 had been wounded.

The Islamic State responded with 17 attacks throughout Anbar. That included three car bombs. The Iraqi forces claimed they destroyed another 28 car bombs and killed 27 suicide bombers, but that was a huge exaggeration. For instance, on February 21 IS claimed it hit a checkpoint in Baghdadi with four suicide car bombs (SVBIEDs) and an infantry assault. The Iraqi press had the four SVBIEDs in the earliest reports, but as the day went on the numbers went up and up. The car bombs went from four to five and then eight, and then 3 dead suicide bombers were added to the mix, which eventually went to 25 by the day was done. This happens all the time as the security forces and Hashd exaggerate their victories in their propaganda war against IS.

There was a rare downturn in violence in Baghdad during the week. The apparent cause was the protests in Baghdad, which Moqtada al-Sadr called. The added security disrupted IS operations leading to only 58 total incidents from March 15-21 compared to 72 the week before and 80 the first week of March. As usual the south with 21 incidents was the most dangerous part of the province. That included 16 IEDs, 2 sticky bombs, and mortar fire.

Violence in Baghdad, Mar 15-21, 2016

Center: 3 – 1 Robbery, 1 Stabbing/Robbery, 1 Shooting

East: 9 – 2 Sticky Bombs, 3 IEDs, 4 Shootings

Outer East: 1 – 1 Sticky Bomb

North: 6 – 1 Grenade, 1 Robbery, 1 Shooting, 3 IEDs

Outer North: 8 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Shooting, 6 IEDs

South: 11 – 1 Robbery, 1 Shooting, 2 Sticky Bombs, 7 IEDs

Outer South: 10 – 1 Mortar, 9 IEDs

West: 6 – 1 Robbery, 1 Shooting, 2 Sticky Bombs, 2 IEDs

Outer West: 4 – 4 IEDs

IS launched 13 attacks in Kirkuk. That included another chemical rockets attack upon Taza that killed one. There were also a wave of infantry attacks upon the Peshmerga and Hashd that included two car bombs and 11 suicide bombers that were killed. 3 Peshmega were killed and 20 wounded along with 3 Hashd.

As terrorist attacks have picked up in Turkey, Ankara has increased its air attacks upon northern Kurdistan. In one such raid the Turks claimed they killed 45 PKK fighters.

As preparations for the Mosul operation have ramped up, IS has tried to disrupt them. It sent three suicide bombers against the 15^th Division base at Makhmour, which wounded four soldiers. It launched rockets at a firebase that the U.S. set up in Makhmour that killed one U.S. soldier and wounded 8 more, and then attacked it with suicide bombers a few days later. Mortars hit the Zilkan camp where Turkey is helping former Governor Atheel Nujafi train fighters, which killed 2 Turks, 5 volunteers, and wounded 4 others.

There was other violence in Ninewa. A new mass grave of Yazidis killed by IS was also discovered with 70 bodies in it. There were reports that 90 Yaizdi homes were blown up in the Sinjar district, and 120 homes belonging to members of the security forces and relatives were destroyed by the militants in Qayara. A U.S. air strike was blamed for killing 10 civilians and wounding 13 in Mosul.

In Salahaddin things have not changed since Baiji and its refinery were freed. There is still fighting in that district, along with the Alas and Ajeel oil fields, and the Makhoul mountains. There were also three incidents in Tuz Kharmato. The Hashd were talking about clearing the entire province after Baiji fell, but their manpower has been depleted by Iran’s call for more fighters in Syria. Now no real moves have been made in the province, and things have become stalemated there.

During the week there were 40 reported car bombs, but that was an exaggeration. Three hit their targets in Anbar. 28 were said to have been destroyed in Anbar, 5 in Salahaddin, and 2 each in Kirkuk and Ninewa. The real figure was probably half that due to inflation by the Iraqi forces.

Violence In Iraq 2015-16

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	911	2,656	3,032 + 150
FEB	730	2,345	2,366
MAR	820	2,665	2,529
APR	751	2,753	2,621
MAY	674	2,565 + 1,499	1,952 + 646
JUN	708	2,153 + 405	2,174
JUL	688	2,716	3,198 + 4,024
AUG	684	2,440 + 760	1,777
SEP	649	1,731	1,668 + 3,003
OCT	589	1,144	1,555
NOV	530	1,174	1,455 + 124 + 1,322
DEC	553	1,155	1,252 + 5,920
Jan 1-7	150	808	421
Jan 8-14	140	436	417
Jan 15-21	135	275	227
Jan 22-28	132	392	322
Jan 29-31	41	81	334
JAN	598	2,052	1,721
Feb 1-7	146	575	313
Feb 8-14	119	146	323
Feb 15-21	130	225	239
Feb 22-29	153	371	690
FEB	549	1,281	1,566
Mar 1-7	183	321	478
Mar 8-14	168	404	415
Mar 15-21	130	349	409

Security By Province Mar 15-21, 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	20 Incidents 118 Killed: 7 Civilians, 29 ISF, 82 Sahwa 72 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 16 ISF, 54 Sahwa 9 Shootings 1 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs 27 Suicide Bombers Killed 19 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 9 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	7 Incidents 6 Killed: 6 Civilians 19 Wounded: 19 Civilians 2 Shootings 4 IEDs
Baghdad	58 Incidents 66 Killed: 2 Sahwa, 5 ISF, 59 Civilians 263 Wounded: 3 Sahwa, 7 ISF, 253 Civilians 9 Shootings 34 IEDs 7 Sticky Bombs 1 Mortar 1 Grenade
Diyala	8 Incidents 5 Killed: 2 Hashd, 3 Civilians 2 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 1 Hashd 2 Shootings 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Mortar
Kirkuk	14 Incidents 8 Killed: 3 Peshmerga, 5 Civilians 28 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 5 Civilians, 20 Peshmerga 9 Shootings 1 IED 2 Rockets 11 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
KRG	1 Incident 45 Killed: 45 PKK 1 Turkish Air Strike
Ninewa	12 Incidents 84 Killed: 1 U.S. Soldier, 2 Turkish Soldiers, 5 Najafi Hashd 24 Wounded: 4 ISF, 4 Najafi Hashd, 8 U.S. Soldiers, 8 Civilians 4 Shootings 210 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers 1 Rocket 1 Mortar 6 Suicide Bombers Killed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	10 Incidents 17 Killed: 17 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 6 Shootings 1 Mortar 4 Suicide Bombers Killed 3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed

Car Bombs In Iraq Mar 1-7, 2016

Date	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Mar 1	Leine, Tikrit & West of Samarra, Salahaddin Samarra Island & Shirqat, Salahaddin – 8 destroyed	4	29
Mar 2	Baghdadi & Lake Qadisiyah, Anbar – 5 destroyed Bashir, Kirkuk – 1 destroyed Samarra & Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 18 destroyed
Mar 3	Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
Mar 4	Albu Abdul, Anbar – 4 destroyed Mansour, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Mar 5
Mar 6	Hillah, Babil Albu Abad, Anbar – 1 destroyed	61	95
Mar 7	East of Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Totals	4 – 42 Destroyed	65	124
Mar 8
Mar 9	Kirkuk-Sulaymaniya Road, Kirkuk – 1 destroyed	2	2
Mar 10	Khalis, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Mar 11	Khashim, Anbar – 1 destroyed Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Mar 12	Safiriya, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Mar 13	Makhoul & ?, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
Mar 14	Albu Aasi, Albu Taiban & Safiriya, Anbar Albu Aasi, Aqba, Keserat & Masri, Anbar – 5 destroyed	25	20
Totals	3 – 14 Destroyed	27	22
Mar 15
Mar 16	Shuhada, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Mar 17	Fallujah, Anbar – 5 destroyed
Mar 18
Mar 19	Albu Sayah & Husseiniya, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Mar 20	Hamadiya x2, Anbar Albu Obeid, Haqlaniya, Kubaisa, south of Hit, Anbar – 8 destroyed Makhoul, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Mar 21	Albu Obeid, Anbar Albu Obeid & Baghdadi, Anbar – 11 destroyed Bashir & Taza, Kirkuk – 2 destroyed Ain Tallawi, Ninewa – 2 destroyed Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed	8	13
Totals	3 – 37 Destroyed	8	13

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Security forces kill 5 foreign suicide bombers while trying to attack Makhmur camp," Iraqi News, 3/21/16

- "Security forces liberate Kabisa vicinity south of Heet," Iraqi News, 3/19/16

- "Shiite militias foil ISIS attack on Taza, kill 20 ISIS members," Iraqi News, 3/21/16,

Agence France Presse, "Extremist attack kills six soldiers in western Iraq," 3/21/16

AIN, "Starting the process of freeing the Mohammadi area west of Ramadi," 3/16/16

- "Urgent security forces blew up three car bombs in Haqlaniya," 3/20/16

Buratha News, "The killing of 37 Daash terrorists and eight car bombs in attack on al-Baghdadi," 3/21/16

Al Forat, "Popular crowd seizes armored car bombs and destroys a third in Makhoul," 3/20/16

- "A truck bomb destroyed south of Fallujah," 3/16/16

- "Urgent detonated two Daash car bombs in the vicinity of Kubaisa Cement Plant," 3/20/16

George, Susannah, “Baghdad politics slows fight against IS in Anbar,” Associated Press, 3/22/16

Khalid, Herman, "Yazidi Mass Grave Discovered near Mosul," Bas News, 3/19/16

Kurd Press, "45 PKK militants forces in Turkish air strikes," 3/15/16

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "Security forces liberate 2 areas, kill 40 ISIS militants in eastern Fallujah," Iraqi News, 3/19/16

Al Maalomah, "Cleared Amina neighborhood and Arboretum in Hit," 3/20/16

- "Pictures international coalition bombed civilian and ignores the Daash leaders in Mosul," 3/20/16

- "Security forces clear Hit Gas Plant and kill 13 Daash western Anbar," 3/19/16

- "Thwarted suicide car bomb before hitting military units western Anbar," 3/20/16

Al Mada, "100 security forces and clan fighters killed in the process of removing IEDs in Ramadi," 3/21/16

- "Combined forces repel Daash attack," 3/21/16

- "The joint forces liberated Khalidiya island area east of Ramadi," 3/19/16

- "Killing and wounding four American soldiers in an attack on Makhoul camp," 3/20/16

- "Security forces have surrounded Hit and waiting to clear it," 3/18/16

- "The temporary stop to the operation to free Hit until civilians evacuated," 3/21/16

- "Thwarted Daash suicide attack and the death of seven members of the organization south Kirkuk," 3/21/16

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "19 ISIS militants killed in cleansing battles northeast of Ramadi axis," Iraqi News, 3/21/16

- "Security forces liberate 2 areas, kill 40 ISIS militants in eastern Fallujah," Iraqi News, 3/19/16

NINA, "/11/ elements of the national crowd and the Turkish forces killed and wounded in shelling by Daash targeted Zhelkan camp northern Mosul," 3/19/16

- "15 Daash members killed and destroyed a car bomb in Baiji and Jabber," 3/21/16

- "/48/ elements of Daash killed, and their hideouts destroyed in the outskirts of Baghdad," 3/17/16

- "Anti-terrorism device declares the killing of /50/ elements of Daash in the structures area in Fallujah," 3/17/16

- "Daash blew up /90/ Aezidein houses in an apartment complex in Sinjar, west of Mosul," 3/1616

- "Daash blew up /120/ houses belonging to police officers and staff south," 3/16/16

- "The death of a second child in Taza from wounds sustained from mustard attack," 3/17/16

- "Military Media Cell: News About Freeing Kubaysa And Part of Hit Areas incorrect," 3/21/16

- "The Office of the Governor of Anbar province declares the liberation of the military neighborhood in the Heet district," 3/19/16

- "Peshmerga Kill 11 Terrorists, Destroyed Two Car Bombs," 3/21/16

Rudaw, "Pre-dawn ISIS suicide assault wounds four Iraqi soldiers," 3/15/16

Sarhan, Amre, "Clashes erupt between Iraqi forces and ISIS elements east of al-Baghdad," Iraqi News, 3/21/16

- "Security forces repel ISIS attack on Albu Obeid east of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 3/21/16

Sotaliraq, "Army blows up two car bombs south of Hit," 3/20/16

Tilghman, Andrew, "U.S. Marines report second attack on 'Firebase Bell' in northern Iraq," Military Times, 3/21/16

Xinhua, "Security forces free village from IS militants in Iraq's Anbar," 3/17/16