Mosul Campaign Day Thirty-Three, Nov 18, 2016

The Golden Division was caught up fighting in eastern Mosul. Tahrir was declared freed on November 17, but then the division said it was still trying to gain control of the entire area on the 18^th. There were clashes in Qadisiyah as well, which was liberated on November 11. Combat inside the city has been very intense and difficult. The Iraqi forces (ISF) have been limited to armored columns that often get ambushed and then having to dismount and clear houses, the Islamic State re-infiltrating using tunnels dug underneath the city, and waves of civilians that make it difficult determining friend from foe. That has led the ISF to constantly going through the same neighborhoods again and again.

The southern and western fronts witnessed new progress. In the southeast the 9^th Division took three towns in the Nimrod district. In the west the Hasdh captured two villages and moved to the south and west of Tal Afar. The ISF has yet to reach southern Mosul and the Hashd have not yet cut off the city from its routes to Syria. Those should happen by next week.

Farther south of Mosul outside of the town of Tal Adh Dhahab another mass grave with victims of the Islamic State was found. An eyewitness said that the militants took up to 40 people, mostly former members of the Iraqi Security Forces, and executed them.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported that there were over 60,000 people displaced since the Mosul campaign started on October 17. Around 40,000 of those fled since the start of November.

There was fallout over comments Kurdish President Massoud Barzani made on November 16. Barzani was in Bashiqa, which had just been freed by the Peshmerga where he gave a speech saying that the Kurds would not withdraw from any of the areas that they had liberated. The next day Prime Minister Haidar Abadi’s office issued a statement that the agreement between Baghdad and Irbil was still in place, which had the Peshmerga pulling out of the areas that they freed during the Mosul campaign. Then on November 18 Barzani issued a clarification that the Arab press mistranslated his words, and that Kurdistan stood by its deal with Baghdad. Kurdish politicians and Peshmerga however have made it clear that all areas they took were part of the disputed areas that they want to annex, and they would not relinquish them. This dilemma will have to be dealt with after the liberation of the city along with many other political issues.

Finally, there has been a growing chorus of pro-Iranian Hashd notables who have stated that after Mosul they will march into Syria. The latest was Badr leader Hadi al-Amiri who said that President Bashar al-Assad had invited the Hashd into his country. Members of the National Alliance, the main Shiite list responded saying that the Hashd had no authority to act on its own without the approval of the Iraqi government, parliament and Armed Forces General Command. A member of the Supreme Council went on to say that Iraq respected the borders of its neighbors and would not interfere in their affairs. There are already thousands of Iraqis fighting in Syria organized by Iran, but they do not have official sanction. Various pro-Tehran Hashd commanders have been talking about a formal invasion of Syria, but this was the first time the political class spoke up against that idea.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “New suspected IS mass grave found near Mosul,” 11/18/16

AIN, "Freed village of Omar north of Nimrod," 11/18/16

- "Popular crowd encircling Tal Afar from the south and west," 11/18/16

Associated Press, "Iraqi forces advance cautiously into Mosul; 1 soldier killed," 11/18/16

Bas News, "Iraqi Forces Retake Two More Neighborhoods East of Mosul," 11/17/16

Al Mada, "Army frees village southwest of Mosul, raising Iraqi flag over it," 11/18/16

- “President Barzani of the Kurdistan region confirms the commitment to any agreement concluded about the presence of the Peshmerga in the liberated areas,” 11/18/16

- “Shiite forces critical of the leaders of the Popular Crowd who told papers they would go to Syria after battle to liberate Mosul,” 11/17/16

New Sabah, "A break in the fight against terrorism as Qadisiyah neighborhood in Mosul is completely freed," 11/11/16

NINA, “Al-Abadi Office: The agreement with the Region that includes the withdrawal of the Peshmerga from the areas that are liberated,” 11/17/16

Rudaw, "Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi says it encircles Tal Afar from two sides," 11/18/16

Shafaq News, "Urgent..violent clashes and shelling in the second Qadisiyah neighborhood east Mosul," 11/18/16

Al Sumaria, "Security forces liberated the village of Abraham north of Nimrod," 11/18/16

UN High Commissioner for Refugees, “More support needed as Mosul displacement grows,” 11/18/16

Mosul Campaign Day Thirty-Two, Nov 17, 2016

The Golden Division announced it freed five neighborhoods in eastern Mosul. Tahrir and Aden however had been cleared once before, and Khadra three times. That unit along with elements of the 16^th Division attacked four other areas of the city, but again one of them, Palestine was declared freed before. There was also mopping up operations in Gogjali, which was the first place entered by the Golden Division in the east.

In the south the Federal Police and Hashd were moving forward. The Federal Police took five towns in the southeast. One of those, Hamza, had been freed twice already. In the southwest the Hashd and Federal Police liberated one village.

The Associated Press reported that there were cloudy skies over Mosul limiting air strikes during the day.

The Canadian Special Forces admitted to taking part in combat in northern Iraq. Their commanding General Michael Rouleau said there had been three incidents over the last month when the Canadians fired anti-tank missiles to destroy incoming Islamic State suicide car bombs while working with the Peshmerga. Canadians have been spotted on the front lines during the Mosul operation with the Kurds providing close support although officially they are supposed to just be trainers.

There was more news on the Islamic State’s crimes. An ARA News story had 32 people executed by the group within Mosul. Human Rights Watch (HRW) also investigated the mass grave discovered in Hamam al-Alil south of Mosul on November 7. Originally, the site was thought to have 100 bodies in it, but HRW thought it might have up to 300. HRW talked with witnesses who said that hundreds of families from up to eight villages were herded into Hamam al-Alil by IS fighters. Then starting on October 28, IS began taking away former police offices who were then killed at the Agricultural College just outside of town.

Finally, Vice President Osama Nujafi told reporters he supported a referendum on the disputed areas in Ninewa, which the Kurds claim after the province had been liberated from the insurgents. He also backed making Ninewa a federal region. His brother ex-Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi has made similar comments. They are both aligned with the Kurds, hence their willingness to see parts of the governorate annexed by Kurdistan.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, "IS attacks in Mosul as poor visibility slows Iraqi advance," Associated Press, 11/17/16

Adel, Loaa, "Joint forces continue liberating 6 areas in western coast of Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/17/16

ARA News, "Islamic State executes civilians charged with apostasy and espionage," 11/17/16

Bas News, "Iraqi Forces Retake Two More Neighborhoods East of Mosul," 11/17/16

- "A Kurdish Journalist Hit by IS Sniper in Mosul," 11/17/16

BBC, "Mosul Iraq battle: Bad weather slows advance inside city," 11/17/16

eKurd, “Canadian military trainers involved in frequent clashes in Iraq: officials,” 11/17/16

- “Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief – November 17, 2016,” 11/17/16

Al Forat, "Al Forat Announces incursion into five neighborhoods on Mosul's left coast, and continued clearing of Tal Afar Airport," 11/17/16

- "Popular crowd frees the village of Abra, near Tal Afar Airport," 11/17/16

Human Rights Watch, “Iraq: Hundreds of Police in ISIS Mass Grave,” 11/16/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 5, 2016," 11/5/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 12, 2016," 11/12/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 13, 2016," 11/13/16

- "Inside Mosul, Nov. 17, 2016," 11/17/16

Iraqi News, "Federal Police forces liberate 2 villages north of Shura," 10/27/16

Al Mada, "Detonation of two Daesh car bombs and drop a drone near Tal Afar airport," 11/17/16

Al Mada, "16 Division explodes two car bombs north of Mosul," 11/17/16

Rudaw, "LIVE UPDATES MOSUL OFFENSIVE: DAY 13," 10/29/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces clear areas freed from IS in eastern Mosul," 11/9/16

- "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

Mosul Campaign Day Thirty-One, Nov 16, 2016

Two new neighborhoods of Mosul were entered, but otherwise there was continued heavy fighting in the eastern side of the city. The Golden Division attacked Siha and Dahabiya. That unit plus the 9^th Division were still fighting in Intisar, Judaydat al-Mufti, Salam, Younis Sabawi, Aden, Khadra, and Tahrir. Bakr was also declared freed for the second time. All of these areas have been contested for days with Aden and Tahrir liberated once each, Intisar twice, and Khadra three times. An officer in the 9^th Division interviewed by Rudaw said that its armored vehicles and tanks had been bottled up in the city by anti-tank missiles, and needed infantry support to hold the flanks. This fits with an analysis by Petri Makela mentioned yesterday that the Iraq forces’ (ISF) columns have been vulnerable to ambush points set up by the militants. The ISF have definitely been making gains in the city, but have been brought back to the same areas again and again because of re-infiltration and perhaps because some of them were never fully cleared to begin with.

In the south other elements of the 9^th Division and Federal Division were also making progress. Together they freed four new towns.

Finally, in the southwest the Hashd liberated five villages plus the Tal Afar Airport. The assault on that last town will be next, and will help cut off Mosul from its route to Syria.

Reporters were able to enter Nimrod, south of Mosul, which was recently taken by the Iraqi forces. An army officer said the place was destroyed with most of the ancient Assyrian artifacts smashed and wrecked. The Islamic State publicized its destruction of the relics in 2015.  The destruction of many historic sites in northern Iraq is another part of IS’s legacy in the country.

The Islamic State was still executing people in areas of Mosul under is control and displacing people to build new defenses. The Iraqi Human Rights Commission received news that IS had killed 25 people over the last two days inside the city. Residents told Iraq Oil Report that the militants had forced out around 100 families from the Muharibeen neighborhood in the western section and made them go to the eastern side. IS has been moving people around to either exploit them as human shields or to use their domiciles as defensive positions.

Finally, U.S. and Kurdish officials made contradictory statements about the areas liberated by the Peshmerga. America’s Ambassador to Iraq Douglas Silliman told the press that the Kurdish forces would withdraw from the places that they had freed after the Mosul battle. This came after a meeting with Kurdish President Massoud Barzani. Two days later the president responded that 11,500 Peshmerga had been killed and wounded to take that territory and that the Kurds had no intention of withdrawing from any Kurdish areas. The Kurdistan Regional Government KRG) has made it clear time and again that the areas that they have taken are part of the disputed areas that they claim as historically being Kurdish and that they want to annex them. The status of these places was supposed to be resolved by 2007 according to the Iraqi constitution, but never was due to political disputes between Baghdad and Irbil. The Kurds have now established authority over them, and plan on keeping the majority of them.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Anti-Terrorism Commander: We are 4 Km away from central Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/16/16

- "ISIS shelling kills, wounds 21 civilians near Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/16/16

Associated Press, "Iraqi special forces pushing deeper into east Mosul come under attack from Islamic State," 11/16/16

Bas News, "IS Attacks Civilians in Eastern Mosul," 11/16/16

Buratha News, "Western Mosul, the military operations and positions of the Day 16/11/2016," 11/16/16

Iraq News Network, “Barzani: We will not withdraw our troops from the liberated areas made by us under the agreement with Washington,” 11/16/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 1, 2016," 11/1/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 5, 2016," 11/5/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 12, 2016," 11/12/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 16, 2016," 11/16/16

Al Mada, "16th Division destroyed two car bombs north of Mosul," 11/16/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, "Rights commission: ISIS executed 25 civilians in 2 days," Iraqi News, 11/16/16

- "Updated: Iraqi forces recapture village in Mosul, ISIS shell a liberated one," Iraqi News, 11/16/16

NINA, “US Ambassador To Baghdad: Peshmerga Would Withdraw From All The Liberated Areas After Liberating Mosul,” 11/14/16

Rudaw, “ISIS reportedly using anti-tank missiles against Iraqi forces in Mosul,” 11/16/16

- "LIVE UPDATES: Battle for Mosul, Day 31," 11/16/16

Tawfeeq, Mohammed and Formanek, Ingrid, "Iraqi forces recapture key air base near Mosul," CNN, 11/16/16

World Bulletin, “Iraq says ancient city of Nimrud destroyed by ISIL,” 11/16/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces clear areas freed from IS in eastern Mosul," 11/9/16

- "Iraqi forces continue anti-IS operation near Mosul," 11/16/16

- "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

- "Spotlight: IS commanders escape from Mosul amid Iraqi troop's offensive," 10/20/16

Yahoo News, "Fierce fighting in Mosul: Iraqi forces battle with Islamic State militants, civilians flee to safety," 11/16/16

Mosul Campaign Day Thirty, Nov 15, 2016

With the southwest advance renewed by the Hashd new towns were liberated. Three new towns were freed, and another attacked.

The Golden Division and army were still pushing into Mosul itself and opened a new front as well. The Iraqi forces (ISF) not only attacked two neighborhoods in the west, but hit Hadbaa in the north as well. One of those areas, Bakr however, had been assaulted two times before. Reaching the north is an important event in the campaign. The Golden Division was the first to reach the outskirts of Mosul and decided to push in alone initially. It paid a heavy toll without other units being able to support it and protect its flanks and rear. Elements of the 9^th Division that were caught up in the southeast eventually shifted to the east to open their own front. Now the north is being engaged. Other ISF units should be reaching the south aiming at the Mosul airport soon. That will hopefully stretch the Islamic State, which only has a few thousand fighters to defend the whole city, to the breaking point eventually.

Finish analyst Petri Makela wrote an article about the tactics IS is using in the fight. The militants built several rings of defensive lines around Mosul. The outer towns had minimal defenses with IEDs, car bombs, anti tank missiles, and snipers. When Mosul was reached the Golden Division initially sent in columns of Humvees. They were funneled into specific areas where IS set up ambushes. Armor units eventually came to support the Golden Division, but they have been caught up in the same areas. As one soldier told Reuters his armored unit was not trained for urban warfare and the fighting was overwhelming. With all the soldiers buttoned up inside their vehicles driving down streets in columns they were easy targets for these kill zones and fast moving suicide car bombs, which come at the units so quickly and in heavily armored vehicles they cannot always be destroyed before they hit their target. The Islamic State’s extensive tunnel works has also allowed it to re-infiltrate areas, which is why ISF units are already going through neighborhoods multiple times. Despite all that the Iraqi forces are making progress, just at a heavy cost.

There were more executions within Mosul. 21 civilians were reportedly killed over the last several days within the city on charges of collaborating with the government. The Washington Post also talked with a survivor of the killings in Hamam al-Alil south of Mosul before it was liberated. The man talked about how IS took a group of around 90 men, made the kneel down, and then shot them. Up to 100 bodies have been found in the town in a mass grave.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, “200 tribal fighters control liberated areas southeast of Mosul,” Iraqi News, 11/15/16

- "Badr Organization liberates 2 villages in western axis of Nineveh," Iraqi News, 11/15/16

- "Iraqi forces storm into 3 new neighborhoods in Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/15/16

Evans, Dominic and Davison, John, "Islamic State kills civilians in Mosul to deter support for army," Reuters, 11/15/16

Al Forat, "People crowd frees village of Mareshah west of Mosul," 11/15/16

Makela, Petri, “Tactical Lessons From Mosul – Infantry Skills Matter,” The Medium, 11/15/16

Morris, Loveday, “’I thought, this is it: One man’s escape from an Islamic State mass execution,” Washington Post, 11/15/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces push slowly into Mosul to seize more districts," 11/12/16

Mosul Campaign Day Twenty-Nine, Nov 14, 2016

The Hashd re-started its push to the southwest of Mosul. For the last several days they were consolidating their position and likely re-supplying. On November 14 they made a new advance taking seven towns.

Elements of the 9^th Division freed a town in the southeast as well.

In Mosul there were more reports of civilian casualties. Bas News had a story that shelling killed 63 civilians in the eastern Qadisiyah neighborhood. Iraq Oil Report mentioned that the Islamic State executed civilians in two different areas on charges of collaborating with the government and refusing to evacuate their homes. The toll of the fighting so far has been obfuscated by government censorship. Only the occasional news story has anything on the dead and wounded and those do not appear that often.

Reporters talked with some of those displaced by the fighting. Agence France Presse interviewed people who were starting to come back to Bashiqa east of Mosul that was just freed by the Peshmerga. They were shocked by the destruction that they found. Reuters met with a group of displaced people in Baybukh north of Mosul who have been left to fend for themselves. The story didn’t say why but they were not allowed to move to a displaced camp or another town and the government did not provided with them any transportation out of their situation or aid. The Norwegian Refugee Council said that they had no food, water, electricity or other services, while soldiers were trying to give them provisions. Expelling the Islamic State is only the first step in the war against the Islamic State. Returning people to their homes, repairing the damage, rebuilding the economies, dealing with IS sympathizers, etc. are all work to be done.

There has been a huge increase in displaced in the last few days since eastern Mosul was reached. The U.N. reported 54,282 people had fled their homes up to November 13. That was a 35% increase over the last seven days. As the Iraqi forces enter more parts of the city this number is likely to continue to climb.

SOURCES

Bas News, "63 Civilians Killed by IS Shelling in Eastern Mosul," 11/14/16

Delany, Max, “Battle with IS leaves melting pot Iraq towns in ruin,” Agence France Presse, 11/14/16

Al Forat, "Freed Mushayrifa village in Zab district," 11/14/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Nov. 14, 2016,” 11/14/16

Kalin, Stephen, “Iraqi civilians stranded north of Mosul grow desperate,” Reuters, 11/14/16

Al Maalomah, "Badr announces the freeing of three villages and evacuation of 500 civilians," 11/14/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, “Al-Hashed al-Shaabi, federal police, resume offensives on west, east of Mosul,” 11/14/16

- "Security forces and al-Hashed al-Shaabi liberate 3 villages east and west of Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/14/16

Rudaw, "Shiite force eyes ISIS' top leader as it begins fresh offensive west of Mosul," 11/14/16

UN High Commission for Refugees, “Iraq Situation: Flash Update – 13 November 2013,” 11/13/16

Mosul Campaign Day Twenty-Eight, Nov 13, 2016

The 9^th Division and the Hashd al-Ashayari liberated the historic Nimrod south of Mosul. The town is the site of an ancient Assyrian city. In 2015, the Islamic State destroyed some of the local artifacts claiming they were unIslamic to gain publicity, while likely looting the place as well to sell items on the black market. The neighboring town of Numaniya was also freed, although the 9^th Division claimed it went through that back on November 10.

In Mosul, the Karkukli neighborhood was cleared for the third time. Elements of the 9^th Division also entered Palestine in the southeast. Locals claimed the Golden Division was forced out of the Qadisiyah area due to IS counterattacks, and there was continued clashes in Intisar as well that has been gone through twice before. In the north, the 16^th Division declared that it was preparing to breach the city as well, aiming for the Hadba district. It was still fighting in Sada that was said to be freed on November 6. This will be a continuing story with areas being called liberated again and again. Iraqi forces have a bad habit of making premature announcements. The Islamic State is also continuously trying to re-infiltrate areas hiding amongst civilians and using tunnels that are throughout the city.

Bas News reported that 40 people were executed inside the city on November 13 accused of being collaborators with the government forces. Some of their bodies were hung on poles as been happening for several days now to try to maintain control of the population.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Anti-Terrorism forces liberate Karkojli area in Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/13/16

- "Joint forces continue advancing toward Namrud to liberate villages," Iraqi News, 11/10/16

Bas News, "IS Executes 40 Civilians in Central Mosul," 11/13/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 1, 2016," 11/1/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 12, 2016," 11/12/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 13, 2016," 11/13/16

Kalin, Stephen, “Iraq troops aim to tighten noose on Islamic State in Mosul,” Reuters, 11/13/16

New Sabah, "Counter-terrorism forces free Al Orbajah in second Qadisiyah in Mosul and advancing towards city center," 11/13/16

NINA, "Urgent..Iraqi Forces Surround The Former HQ Of The 2 Army Division, North Of Mosul To Storm It Within Hours," 11/6/16

Reuters, “Fragile army gains in Mosul leave residents exposed,” 11/13/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces clear areas freed from IS in eastern Mosul," 11/9/16

- "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

- “Iraqi forces recapture town of Nimrud in south of Mosul,” 11/13/16

Mosul Campaign Day Twenty-Seven, Nov 12, 2016

Progress was made again in east Mosul. Arbajiyeh was freed, while there was mopping up operations in Qadisiyah, which was liberated the day before. Kirkukli, Zahra, and Khadra were gone through once again as well. All three were cleared on November 9. Finally, Salam and Bakr were attacked, and Aden surrounded, although the latter was declared liberated on November 4. The Iraqi forces (ISF) have had to go through neighborhoods again and again because the Islamic State has re-infiltrated them, usually through the extensive tunnels they dug underneath the city, or they were never fully emptied of fighters to begin with. IS has also hidden amongst civilians making the situation all the harder to deal with. ISF advances have been limited to columns of vehicles travelling down streets due to the heavy gunfire, and then going house to house making the process of moving through the city all that more difficult and time consuming.

(Mappery)

Buzz Feed reported American Apache helicopters flying over the eastern section of the city providing fire support to the Iraqis. The U.S. is also providing artillery and air strikes.

Iraq Oil Report provided details on what was happening within Mosul. Militants executed 7 civilians, and were also forcing people out of their homes in two neighborhoods to use them as mortar and rockets positions, and to fortify them in the face of the advancing Iraqi units.

In Qayara south of Mosul, which was one of the first places liberated during the operation the North Oil Company was hard at work trying to extinguish fires in at least 18 oil wells that were set afire by the retreating Islamic State. Those blazes have created huge toxic clouds that have driven away civilians and vastly limited visibility in the area.

Finally, the United Nations and International Organization for Migration (IOM) updated the displaced situation. The U.N.’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported 49,092 people had left their homes by November 12. 3,390 of those had fled north, 16854 had gone south, and 27,816 had headed east. Most of the last figure was from Mosul itself. The IOM noted that approximately 12,800 people had been displaced from just November 8 to November 11. Again, that was largely due to people fleeing the fighting in eastern Mosul where the ISF have penetrated allowing them an avenue out.

SOURCES

Giglio, Mike, “Officers In Mosul Aim To Shield Civilians, Not Bomb Indiscriminately As Trump Vowed,” BuzzFeed, 11/10/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul, Nov. 12, 2016,” 11/12/16

Al Maalomah, "Counter-terrorism control Arbajiyeh, Second Qadisiyah and surround Aden neighborhoods in Mosul," 11/12/16

New Sabah, "A break in the fight against terrorism as Qadisiyah neighborhood in Mosul is completely freed," 11/11/16

Reuters, "Iraqi army says advances in Mosul, despite suicide bombers," 11/12/16

Tawfeeq, Mohammed, Formanek, Ingrid and Narayan, Chandrika, “Civilians shot, bodies hung from poles in Mosul, Iraqi sources say,” CNN, 11/11/16

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “IRAQ: People currently displaced by Mosul military operations (as of 12 November 2016),” 11/12/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces clear areas freed from IS in eastern Mosul," 11/9/16

- "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

- "Iraqi forces push slowly into Mosul to seize more districts," 11/12/16