How Many Iraqi Refugees Have Returned?

In June 2009 the United Nations' High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) released its latest report on the return of Iraqi refugees and internally displaced. The numbers show that the rate of return has gone up and down since the 2003 invasion, largely connected to the security situation within Iraq. Of Iraq's estimated 4.6 million refugees, roughly a third have returned so far. Many are going back to areas where their group is predominate, changing the demographics of the country. If current trends continue, fewer Iraqis will come back in 2009 compared to 2008, which poses the questions of what will be the plight of those that don't go back. 

Iraq has faced three waves of displacement in recent history. First Saddam used the removal of populations against his domestic Shiite and Kurdish opponents. Over 1 million Iraqis lost their homes before 2003 as a result. The U.S. invasion and the subsequent fighting led to another 200,000 displaced from 2003-2005. The bombing of the Shiite shrine in Samarra in 2006 led to over 1.6 million more. Another two million Iraqis have also become refugees during this time.

The UNHCR numbers show that immediately after the U.S. invasion in 2003 Iraqis began coming home. In 2003 55,249 refugees came back, but no displaced did. 2004 saw the largest total returns to date with 291,997 displaced and refugees making the trip. With the insurgency and the sectarian war taking off the number of returns slowed down by 2007. In 2005 154,155 came back, followed by 170,235 in 2006, but then only 81,420 in 2007. With the improved security, returns jumped back up in 2008. Most of those, 195,890, have been internally displaced compared to only 25,370 refugees. In the first five months of 2009 this trend has continued, 64,450 displaced and 18,630 refugees, but with fewer people overall, 83,080 up to May 2009 compared to 221,260 total in 2008. Overall, 61% of those coming back since the invasion have been displaced Iraqis.

The UNHCR counts 1,057,576 as a rough estimate of the total number of returns since 2003. That would mean about 37% of Iraq's displaced and refugees have gone back. 501,581 came back before the Samarra bombing in 2006, 47.4% of the total, while 555,995, 52.6%, have returned afterwards.

Iraqi Returns

Time	Displaced – Individuals	Refugees – Individuals	Total	%
2003	0	55,249	55,429	5%
2004	98,000	193,997	291,997	28%
2005	98,000	56,155	154,155	15%
2006	150,000	20,235	170,235	16%
2007	36,000	45,420	81,420	8%
2008	195,890	25,370	221,260	21%
Jan. 09	6,390	1,130	7,520
Feb. 09	15,810	2,970	18,780
March 09	20,690	5,850	26,540
April 09	11,020	3,890	14,910
May 09	10,540	4,790	15,330
Total 09	64,450	18,630	83,080	8%
Total	642,340 61%	415,236 39%	1,057,576	100%

Most of the fighting and ethnic cleansing during the sectarian war occurred in Baghdad and Diyala with its mixed Sunni-Shiite populations. Those two provinces have seen the largest number of people coming back in 2009. Baghdad saw 51% of returns and Diyala 34%. The next province was Ninewa with only 3%. When broken down between refugees and displaced, however, a new pattern emerges. Baghdad still received the most refugees coming back with 55%, but Najaf was second with 11%, followed by Diyala with 7% and Karbala with 6%. The displaced have mostly gone back to Baghdad, 51% and Diyala 42%.

Refugees and Displaced Returns By Province – Individuals 2009

Province	Jan. 09	Feb. 09	March 09	April 09	May 09	Total 09	%
Anbar	0	0	40	20	340	400	0%
Babil	210	190	460	400	290	1,550	2%
Baghdad	2,000	7,550	12,670	10,230	10,330	42,780	51%
Basra	340	130	450	120	80	1,120	1%
Dohuk	0	0	40	10	10	60	0%
Dhi Qar	20	30	180	100	20	350	0%
Diyala	3,420	9,040	10,120	2,650	2,980	28,210	34%
Irbil	20	20	50	0	60	150	0%
Karbala	90	80	240	280	380	1,070	1%
Maysan	70	40	70	100	80	360	0%
Muthanna	20	0	110	30	10	170	0%
Najaf	370	510	120	580	380	1,960	2%
Ninewa	590	680	1,150	30	30	2,480	3%
Qadisiyah	20	40	280	90	10	440	1%
Salahaddin	10	40	40	80	90	260	0%
Sulaymaniya	0	0	0	0	030	30	0%
Tamim	0	180	230	160	100	670	1%
Wasit	340	250	290	30	110	1,020	1%
TOTAL	7,520	18,780	26,540	14,910	15,330	83,080	100%
	9%	23%	32%	18%	18%	100%

Refugee Returns By Province – Individuals 2009

Province	Jan. 09	Feb. 09	March 09	April 09	May 09	Total 09	%
Anbar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Babil	110	160	250	290	120	930	5%
Baghdad	0	1,340	3,330	2,140	3,420	10,230	55%
Basra	220	90	140	90	50	590	3%
Dohuk	0	0	40	10	10	60	0%
Dhi Qar	10	30	180	100	20	340	2%
Diyala	120	400	760	70	0	1,350	7%
Irbil	20	20	30	0	50	120	1%
Karbala	90	80	240	270	360	1,040	6%
Maysan	60	30	60	90	60	300	2%
Muthanna	20	0	110	30	10	170	1%
Najaf	370	510	120	580	380	1,960	11%
Ninewa	0	0	0	0	20	20	0%
Qadisiyah	20	40	280	90	10	440	2%
Salahaddin	0	20	20	0	40	80	0%
Sulaymaniya	0	0	0	0	30	30	0%
Tamim	0	180	220	130	100	630	3%
Wasit	90	70	70	0	110	340	2%
TOTAL	1,130	2,970	5,850	3,890	4,790	18,630	100%
	6%	16%	31%	21%	26%	100%

Displaced Returns By Province – Individuals 2009

Province	Jan. 09	Feb. 09	March 09	April 09	May 09	Total 09	%
Anbar	0	0	40	20	340	400	1%
Babil	100	30	210	110	170	620	1%
Baghdad	2,000	6,210	9,340	8,090	6,910	32,550	51%
Basra	120	40	310	30	30	530	1%
Dohuk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Dhi Qar	10	0	0	0	0	10	0%
Diyala	3,300	8,640	9,360	2,580	2,980	26,860	42%
Irbil	0	0	020	0	10	30	0%
Karbala	0	0	0	10	20	30	0%
Maysan	10	10	10	10	20	60	0%
Muthanna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Najaf	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Ninewa	590	680	1,150	30	10	2,460	4%
Qadisiyah	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Salahaddin	10	20	20	80	50	180	0%
Sulaymaniya	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%
Tamim	0	0	10	30	0	40	0%
Wasit	250	180	220	30	0	680	1%
TOTAL	6,390	15,810	20,690	11,020	10,540	64,450	100%
	10%	24%	32%	17%	16%	100%

Within Baghdad, returning Iraqis have been unevenly distributed. The central district of Karkh has seen the most returns with 23,630. After that the western district of Kadamiya 5,450, and the northern district of Adhamiya, 5,320, were next. All three were battlefields in the sectarian war. Adhamiya was a mixed Sunni-Shiite area with a Sunni majority in northwestern Baghdad next to Sadr City. Karkh was in the middle with a largely mixed Sunni-Shiite population, and Kadamiya was a Shiite area in mostly Sunni western Baghdad. The Mahdi Army for example, tried to expand into all three areas. Abu Ghraib in contrast, which is located in the west by the Baghdad International Airport, just outside of the capital, was mostly known for insurgent activity, and has only had 330 returns this year as a result. On the one hand it's good to see that the areas in Baghdad province that had the most intense fighting are seeing the largest returns, at the same time most reports say that families are largely returning to areas where their sect is predominate adding to the segregation of the area.

Iraqis have been returning to the country since 2003. The numbers coming back have gone up and down depending upon the security situation. 2004 saw the largest amount of people coming back, but most of the conversation today is about those that lost their homes during the sectarian fighting after the 2006 Samarra bombing. 2008 saw a huge increase in returns, but if this year's trend continues, fewer will come back in 2009. There are two major concerns about this process. First, over three and a half million Iraqis are still displaced even with violence dramatically down. Some are worried that these Iraqis will become permanent refugees similar to the Palestinians. Second, many of central and northern Iraq's cities use to be made up of mixed neighborhoods. The sectarian war created segregated areas, which are now being solidified by the pattern of returns. Both of these will have dramatic effects upon Iraq's society if they are continued.

SOURCES

Bigio, Jamille and Scott, Jen, "Internal Displacement in Iraq: The Process of Working Toward Durable Solutions," Brookings Institution and University of Bern, June 2009

International Crisis Group, "Iraq's Civil War, The Sadrists And The Surge," 2/7/08

UNHCR, "UNHCR Iraq Operation, Monthly Statistical Update on Return – May 2009," June 2009