Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Nov. 09 Sees Lowest Death Count Since U.S. Invasion

Casualties in Iraq continue to fluctuate up and down with each month in 2009. October had a high number of deaths compared to September, so it was predictable that November would see lower figures. It also had the fewest deaths since the U.S. invasion in March 2003. As usual, Iraq Body Count recorded the highest number of deaths at 212 last month. The Iraqi Ministries reported 122 deaths, icasualties had 105, the Associated Press only counted 90 and English language press reported 190. In comparison, in October the Associated Press found 364 deaths, mostly due to the bombings in Baghdad in the middle of the month. The roller coaster pattern began in December 2008. January 2009 had fewer deaths, than the numbers went up for two months, before going into an up and down pattern for each month since April to the present.

November was also marked by very few mass casualty bombings (ten or more dead and/or wounded). There were only ten such attacks last month, resulting in 43 deaths and 136 wounded. That too was the lowest number of casualties this year from these types of actions, and the fewest bombings since early 2004.

November still saw wide scale violence however as there were attacks in fourteen of Iraq’s eighteen provinces. In October, as in most months, Baghdad was the most violent area of the country. Last month, while that province still had the most casualties overall, 203, Ninewa actually had the most deaths, 41 versus 38 in Baghdad. Those two were followed by Anbar with 31 deaths, Tamim with 25, Diyala with 21, and Salahaddin with 13. In southern Iraq there were some large bombings that resulted in 163 wounded overall, while Babil remains the most unstable province in the region as it is on the fault line between Sunnis and Shiites. Iranian backed Special Groups are also the likely culprits behind five attacks on American forces in southern Iraq, including a sniper attack that killed an American solider in Wasit. November also saw two rare attacks in the Kurdish region that resulted in two deaths. Kurdistan has been the most stable part of the country for years now.

2009 continues to see the fewest overall casualties since the 2003 invasion. This was largely due to the decision by Sunni parties, civilians, and insurgents, to participate in the January 2009 provincial elections after they boycotted the 2005 ones. The up and down pattern in deaths also defies many reports and predictions that violence would increase after winners and losers were pronounced in the 2009 vote, and that attacks would go up before the 2010 parliamentary balloting, that were originally planned for January. Iraq still remains one of the most dangerous countries in the world, but it is nowhere near what it was during the sectarian war of 2006-2007 when the country was at the precipice of total collapse.
Iraqi Deaths


Brookings Institution
Iraq Body Count
icasualties
Iraqi Ministries
Associated Press
2008





July
500
584
419
465
510
Aug.
450
592
311
431
475
Sep.
400
535
366
440
503
Oct.
350
528
288
318
446
Nov.
270
473
317
340
360
Dec.
350
522
320
316
393
2009





Jan.
270
276
187
191
242
Feb.
230
343
202
258
288
March
260
416
278
252
335
April
340
484
347
355
371
May
240
332
188
165
225
June
320
488
367
438
447
July
220
395
240
275
309
Aug.
300
593
439
456
425
Sep.
200
299
158
203
238
Oct.
240
410
320
410
364
Nov.
N/A
212
105
122
90
Averages





3rd Qtr. 2008
450.0
570.3
365.3
446.3
496.0
4th Qtr.

2008
323.3
507.6
308.3
324.6
379.6
1st Qtr.

2009
253.3
345.0
222.3
233.6
288.3
2nd Qtr. 2009
300.0
434.6
300.6
319.3
347.6
3rd Qtr. 2009
240.0
428.0
279.0
311.3
324.0
Last 6 months of 2008
386.6
539.0
336.8
385.0
447.8
First 6 months of 2009
276.6
389.8
261.0
276.5
317.5

Number of Mass Casualty Bombings and Statistics – January to November 2009

January 2009
Bombings: 10
Deaths: 104
Wounded: 185

February 2009
Bombings: 8
Deaths: 52
Wounded: 143

March 2009
Bombings: 15
Deaths: 155
Wounded: 297

April 2009
Bombings: 21
Deaths: 198 + 32 Iranians
Wounded: 497 + 105 Iranians + 10 Americans

May 2009
Bombings: 9
Deaths: 111
Wounded: 262

June 2009
Bombings: 14
Deaths: 174
Wounded: 517

July 2009
Bombings: 35
Deaths: 180
Wounded: 655

August 2009
Bombings: 44
Deaths: 359
Wounded: 2,252

September 2009
Bombings: 13
Deaths: 70
Wounded: 263

October 2009
Bombings: 22
Deaths: 241
Wounded: 887

November 2009
Bombings: 10
Deaths: 43
Wounded: 136

Attacks and Casualties By Province November 2009

Ninewa: Attacks: 61
Dead: 41
Wounded: 80

Baghdad: Attacks: 59
Dead: 38
Wounded: 165

Anbar: Attacks: 25
Dead: 31
Wounded: 59

Tamim: Attacks: 32
Dead: 25
Wounded: 39

Diyala: Attacks: 35
Dead: 21
Wounded: 82

Salahaddin: Attacks: 13
Dead: 13
Wounded: 7

Southern Iraq: Attacks: 24
Babil: 9
Wasit: 4
Basra: 3
Karbala: 3
Dhi Qar: 2
Maysan: 2
Qadisiyah: 1
Dead: 19 + 1 American
Wounded: 163

Likely Special Groups Attacks In Southern Iraq

U.S. patrol hit by IED in Basra 11/19/09
Sniper kills U.S. soldier in Wasit 11/22/09
IED attack on U.S. patrol in Dhi Qar 11/23/09
Katyusha Rocket hits U.S. base in Qadisiyah 11/27/09
Mortar attack on U.S consulate in Babil, 11/28/09

Kurdistan: Attacks: 2
Dead: 2
Wounded: 0

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Baghdad Cop Kidnaps then Kills Boy: Police,” Asharq Alawsat, 11/17/09
- “Four students killed in Iraqi violence ahead of polls,” 1/21/09

Associated Press, “Iraq: 4 killed, 32 injured in separate bombings,” 11/26/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “1 civilian killed, another wounded in Saadiya,” 11/24/09
- “2 bombs wound 4 in Baghdad,” 11/23/09
- “2 charred bodies found inside car bomb,” 11/1/09
- “2 civilians injured by bomb explosion in Baghdad,” 11/25/09
- “2 civilians killed in Mosul,” 11/19/09
- “2 civilians killed, injured in Jalawlaa,” 11/18/09
- “2 civilians wounded, 11 arrested separately in Diala,” 11/6/09
- “2 civilians wounded in Baghdad blast,” 11/21/09
- “2 civilians wounded in cab bomb blast in Mosul,” 11/1/09
- “2 civilians wounded in Falluja blast,” 11/9/09
- “2 gunmen killed in IED blast they planted,” 11/8/09
- “2 policemen wounded in hand-grenade blast in Mosul,” 11/12/09
- “2 rockets, mortar shell hit 2 U.S. bases in Salah el-Din,” 11/18/09
- “2 soldiers wounded in Diala blast,” 11/28/09
- “2 sticky bombs injure 5 in Baghdad,” 11/24/09
- “2nd explosion in Falluja injures 3,” 11/17/09
- “2nd sticky bomb in Baghdad wounds 5 people,” 11/4/09
- “3 children wounded in Ninewa blast,” 11/15/09
- “3 civilians injured in bomb explosion in Diala,” 11/13/09
- “3 family members killed, wounded in Diala,” 11/3/09
- “3 killed, 6 injured in blast in Baghdad,” 11/16/09
- “3 members of displaced family wounded in attack in Diala,” 11/29/09
- “3 mortar shells hit central Mosul,” 11/9/09
- “3 soldiers wounded in Mosul blast,” 11/15/09
- “4 bodies found in Baghdad,” 11/16/09
- “4 cops killed, wounded in armed attack,” 11/10/09
- “4 crime victims from one Yazeedi family in Mosul,” 11/30/09
- “4 wounded in 3rd explosion in Baghdad,” 11/4/09
- “4 wounded in bike bomb blast in Baaquba,” 11/13/09
- “5 civilians injured in Baghdad,” 11/12/09
- “6 civilians wounded in Baghdad blast,” 11/21/09
- “8 servicemen killed, wounded in Baghdad blast,” 11/16/09
- “11 people wounded by 2 thermal bomb attacks in Kirkuk,” 11/30/09
- “12 killed, injured in Mosul attack,” 2/2/09
- “13-year-old Christian boy shot down in Mosul,” 11/13/09
- “Abu-Ghraib hospital receives 13 executed bodies,” 11/16/09
- “Al-Qaeda kills Sahwa official in Diala,” 11/18/09
- “Al-Qaeda leader killed, 8 others arrested near Samarra,” 11/10/09
- “Anti-corruption committee chairman survives attempt in Thi-Qar,” 11/22/09
- “Army officer killed in Mosul blast,” 11/23/09
- “Asiacell employee gunned down in Mosul,” 11/2/09
- “Babel police foil attempt to bomb souk with shoe bomb,” 11/13/09
- “Baghdad blast wounds 4,” 11/25/09
- “Baghdad blast wounds 4 civilians,” 11/17/09
- “Barber killed in eastern Diala,” 11/6/09
- “Bicycle bomb kills 5, injures 24 in Khalis,” 3/2/09
- “Bike bomb kills, wounds 42 near Hilla,” 11/1/09
- “Blast hits policeman’s house in Kirkuk,” 11/5/09
- “Body found, civilian killed, another wounded separately in Mosul,” 11/12/09
- “Bomb hits army convoy in Amara,” 11/22/09
- “Bomb kills child, wounds 5 civilians in Mosul,” 11/15/09
- “Bomb kills Falluja mosque imam,” 11/24/09
- “Bomb wounds 2 brothers near Khanaqin,” 11/15/09
- “Bomb wounds 4 civilians in Baghdad,” 11/4/09
- “Bomb wounds 6 in Baghdad,” 11/22/09
- “Bomb wounds civilian, 6 nabbed in Diala,” 11/14/09
- “Booby-trapped bicycle wounds 3 civilians in Baghdad,” 11/7/09
- “Car bomb causes slight damage in Mosul,” 11/25/09
- “Car bomb leaves 13 casualties in Mosul,” 3/11/09
- “Checkpoint blast leaves woman dead,” 11/1/09
- “Child wounded in Mosul blast,” 11/11/09
- “Christian kidnapped in Kirkuk,” 11/23/09
- “Civilian body found, 6 suspects nabbed in Jalawlaa,” 11/1/09
- “Civilian body found in Salah al-Din,” 11/17/09
- “Civilian killed, 2 wounded in Ramadi blasts,” 11/5/09
- “Civilian killed, 3 wounded in Baghdad blast,” 11/26/09
- “Civilian killed in eastern Mosul,” 11/9/09
- “Civilian killed in tribal feud,” 11/14/09
- “Civilian killed, son wounded in western Mosul,” 11/16/09
- “Civilian wounded, 4 suspects arrested in Diala,” 11/29/09
- “Civilian wounded as police detonates IED,” 11/22/09
- “Civilian wounded by Iraqi fire in Mosul,” 11/10/09
- “Civilian wounded in 3rd blast in Baghdad,” 11/26/09
- “Civilian wounded in IED blast, 7 arrested separately in Diala,” 11/8/09
- “Civilian wounded in Kirkuk blast,” 11/2/09
- “Cop wounded by sticky bomb in Kirkuk,” 11/24/09
- “Cop wounded in Mosul blast,” 11/11/09
- “Criminal investigations chief escapes attempt on his life,” 11/23/09
- “Decayed body found near Kirkuk,” 11/17/09
- “Employee shot down by gunmen in Mosul,” 11/1/09
- “Explosives found in train station in north of Basra,” 11/13/09
- “Falluja blast wounds 4,” 11/22/09
- “Female body found in Makhmour,” 11/13/09
- “Female student kidnapped in Kirkuk,” 11/1/09
- “Final toll from Karbala blast reaches 46,” 11/25/09
- “Gas station owner kidnapped near Baaquba,” 11/16/09
- “Girl found dead in Kut,” 11/7/09
- “Girl found half buried near Kut,” 11/9/09
- “Grenades in Kirkuk,” 11/10/09
- “Gunman shoots dead civilian in Kirkuk,” 11/14/09
- “Gunmen blow up house in Abu Ghraib,” 11/4/09
- “Gunmen injure former premier’s bodyguards in Baghdad,” 11/23/09
- “Gunmen kidnap civilian, army finds body in Diala,” 11/17/09
- “Gunmen kill army officer in Kirkuk,” 11/30/09
- “Gunmen kill civilian near Kut,” 11/22/09
- “Gunmen kill employee in Mosul,” 11/22/09
- “Gunmen kill Sahwa element southwest of Kirkuk,” 11/6/09
- “Gunmen kill taxi driver, steal vehicle in Baghdad,” 11/29/09
- “Gunmen wound lawman in Mosul,” 11/3/09
- “Gunmen wound policeman in Mosul,” 11/8/09
- “Gunmen wounded while planting bomb in Diala,” 11/21/09
- “Gunmen wounded while planting IED in Diala,” 11/1/09
- “Hand grenade wounds woman in Mosul,” 11/28/09
- “High school headmistress shot down in Baghdad,” 11/12/09
- “Hilla blast wounded up to 16,” 11/5/09
- “IED blast near Falluja, no casualties reported,” 11/27/09
- “IED blast rocks Ramadi but leaves no casualties,” 11/20/09
- “IED hits U.S. patrol in Basra,” 11/19/09
- “IED injures 2 cops in Mosul,” 11/20/09
- “IED injures 2 people in Kirkuk,” 11/17/09
- “IED kills 2 civilians, wounds 24 north of Hilla,” 11/26/09
- “IED kills civilian, injure 3 north of Talafar,” 11/3/09
- “IED targets U.S. forces, wounds 4 cops in Thi-Qar,” 11/23/09
- “IED wounds 2 civilians in Mosul,” 11/16/09
- “IED wounds 5 in western Mosul,” 11/6/09
- “Iraqi soldier shot down by gunmen in Mosul,” 11/26/09
- “Judge survives assassination attempt,” 11/17/09
- “Katyusha rocket lands in U.S. camp in Diwaniya,” 11/27/09
- “Kidnapper killed, 3 nabbed in Kirkuk,” 11/5/09
- “Kirkuk explosion casualties rise to 14,” 11/16/09
- “Kirkuk governor chief guard survives attempt with explosive belt,” 11/20/09
- “Kurdish security officer killed in central Arbil,” 11/9/09
- “Kuwaiti killed in Anbar – Defense Ministry,” 11/23/09
- “Lawyer shot dead by gunmen in Mosul,” 11/1/09
- “Man gunned down, killer arrested in Kirkuk,” 11/14/09
- “Man, son killed in Diala,” 11/2/09
- “Media man seriously injured in assassination attempt,” 11/23/09
- “Mortar attack on Sunni endowment leaves 3 wounded,” 11/3/09
- “Mortar attacks on U.S. consulate in Babel leave 8 wounded,” 11/28/09
- “Mortars hit U.S. base in Salah al-Din,” 11/19/09
- “Mosque imam killed in Baghdad,” 11/24/09
- “Municipal council member gunned down in Baghdad,” 11/29/09
- “North Oil Company employee wounded by gunmen,” 11/8/09
- “North Oil Company’s worker kidnapped in Kirkuk,” 11/23/09
- “Officer killed, 2 cops wounded by roadside bomb in Mosul,” 11/5/09
- “Police chief says only 7 injured in Karbala blast,” 11/25/09
- “Police chief survives attempt on life,” 11/22/09
- “Police officer escapes assassination attempt in Baghdad,” 11/25/09
- “Police officer escapes assassination attempt in Kirkuk,” 11/5/09
- “Policeman killed by gunmen fire in Mosul,” 11/7/09
- “Prison-break in Basra results in 3 terror detainees escape,” 11/11/09
- “PUK official assassinated in Diala,” 11/26/09
- “Roadside bomb devastates U.S. vehicle in Samara,” 11/9/09
- “Roadside bomb wounds 2 civilians in Diala,” 11/3/09
- “Rocket fired from southwestern Kirkuk,” 11/11/09
- “Sadrist leader assassinated in Kirkuk,” 11/9/09
- “Sahwa fighter gunned down in Diala,” 11/17/09
- “Sahwa leader escapes attempt on life,” 11/9/09
- “Sahwa leader survives 2nd assassination attempt,” 11/18/09
- “Security element killed in Mosul,” 11/30/09
- “Soldiers wounded in clashes with gunmen,” 11/21/09
- “Sound bomb explodes near Tikrit Uni.,” 11/22/09
- “Sticky bomb injures 2 civilians in Baghdad,” 11/23/09
- “Sticky bomb injures 2 civilians in western Kirkuk” 11/10/09
- “Sticky bomb injures 7 people in western Baghdad,” 11/4/09
- “Sticky bomb wounds 4 in Baghdad,” 11/21/09
- “Suicide bomber killed by police in Anbar,” 11/22/09
- “Talafar residents arrest bomber, hand him over to army,” 11/20/09
- “Teacher gunned down in Mosul,” 11/21/09
- “Thermal bomb kills, injures 2 cops in Mosul,” 11/30/09
- “Thermal bomb leaves child killed, 4 wounded in Mosul,” 11/22/09
- “Thermal bomb wounds civilian in Mosul,” 11/16/09
- “Tikrit bomb wounds civilian,” 11/2/09
- “Turkmen politician assassinated in Mosul,” 11/22/09
- “U.S. force kills civilian, arrests son, 2 brothers in Ninewa,” 11/4/09
- “U.S. soldier shot down by sniper fire in Wassit,” 11/22/09
- “Unidentified body of young man found in Mosul,” 11/13/09
- “Unknown bodies found in Mosul,” 11/4/09
- “Unknown corpse found near Kirkuk market,” 11/17/09
- “URGENT/3 bombings in Falluja hit 12 civilians,” 11/16/09
- “URGENT/Car bomb explodes in Baghdad,” 11/24/09

BBC, “Fallujah car bomb blast ‘kills 13,’” 1/24/09
- “Suicide bomb kills many in Iraq,” 1/2/09

DPA, “Bomb kills three in northern Iraq,” 11/17/09
- “Female suicide bomber kills 40 pilgrims in Baghdad,” 1/4/09
- “Mortar attack targets US base in Ramadi – no casualties,” 11/1/09

Al-Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday November 18, 2009,” 11/18/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 26 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/26/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 3 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/3/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 10 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/10/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/11/09

Hussein, Jenan, - “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 22 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/22/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 4 November, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/4/09

Icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count

Iraq Today, February 2009
- January 2009
- March 2009

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 6 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/6/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 13 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/13/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 9 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/9/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 16 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/16/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 8 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/8/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 5 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/5/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 12 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/12/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 10 March 2009,” 3/10/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 24 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/24/09

KUNA, “Suicide bomber in Ramadi kills three Iraqis, wounds five,” 11/1/09

Murphy, Brian, “Iraq reports drop in civilian deaths in November,” Associated Press, 11/30/09

O’Hanlon, Michael Livingston, Ian, “Iraq Index,” Brookings Institution, 11/20/09

Press TV, “Iraqi colonel killed in Baghdad blast,” 11/4/09

Reporters Without Borders, “Star TV host badly wounded in Baghdad shooting attack,” 11/24/09

Reuters, “Bomb attack sabotaged Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline,” 11/24/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 17,” 2/17/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 26,” 1/26/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 7,” 11/7/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 8,” 11/8/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 9,” 11/9/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 12,” 11/12/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 14,” 11/14/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 18,” 11/18/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 20,” 11/20/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 26,” 11/26/09
- “Iraq bomb kills two Shi’ite pilgrims – police,” 2/8/09
- “Iraq suicide bomber kills 18 at tribal lunch,” 1/2/09
- “Iraq’s Maliki beats religious parties,” 2/5/09

Sarhan, Saad and Raghavan, Sudarsan, “Attack on Crowded Livestock Market South of Baghdad Kills 12,” Washington Post, 3/5/09

Xinhua, “3 people killed in gunfire, bomb attacks in Iraq,” 11/10/09
- “3 workers killed, 15 injured in Iraq bombing,” 3/30/09
- “11 Iraqis wounded in Baghdad bomb attacks,” 11/23/09
- “At least 12 killed in bomb explosion in Karbala,” 2/12/09
- “Attacks kill 2 paramilitary members in Iraq,” 11/12/09
- “Civilian killed, 6 injured in Iraq’s Diyala violence,” 11/15/09
- “Death toll rises to 9 killed in west Baghdad explosion,” 3/23/09
- “Death toll rises to 16 in Baghdad car bombing,” 2/11/09
- “Gunmen slaughter 6 in north of Baghdad,” 11/25/09
- “Policeman Killed in Bomb Attacks in Diyala,” 3/3/09
- “Suicide car bomb kills three policemen in W Iraq,” 11/22/09
- “Suicide car bomber wounds 10 in northern Iraq,” 1/6/09
- “Two policemen killed in booby-trapped house explosion in Diyala,” 3/22/09
- “Two people killed, 22 injured in Baghdad bomb attacks,” 1/5/09
- “Two people killed in Iraq’s Diyala violence,” 11/29/09

2 comments:

amagi said...

If the attack in the Kurdish region is the same as the one I'm thinking of, it seems to have been Yazidi-on-Yazidi. Not for nothing, but when do the casualty metrics stop being war statistics and start being crime statistics?

I think it's safe to say that all, or nearly all, of the bombings are politically motivated and the same goes for targeted assassinations, but I often wonder about the 'gunmen' claims. After all, most large U.S. cities, for instance, have their fair share of gunmen over the course of a year.

I'm not grinding a particular axe so much as wondering what 'nominal' if not 'acceptable' levels of violence would/will look like for Iraq.

Joel Wing said...

Good question amagi

it doesn't get reported a lot but many militia and insurgent groups have turned into criminal gangs. I remember when the US took over Basra from the British and a US officer said he couldn't tell whether much of the violence there was the work of militias or just gangs trying to intimidate people.

I think Iraq still has an unacceptable level of violence, but outside of Mosul it seems Iraqis are moving on because much of the country doesn't have many attacks. The insurgency today is largely reduced to terrorist attacks, which will probably last for years, buy is affecting less and less people thankfully.

On the negative side the reduction of violence brings the political and economic issues to the fore and Iraq is looking to be a pretty typical dysfunctional Third World country. Nigeria might be a good comparison with it's oil wealth but lack of development, corruption, smuggling, etc.

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