Sunday, December 6, 2009

Security Situation In Mosul, November 2009

The security situation in Iraq was a little different in November 2009. Unlike previous months, Baghdad province was not the deadliest place in the country. Rather Ninewa, largely driven by events in the provincial capital Mosul, had the most deaths for the month. Last month Ninewa had 61 attacks resulting in 41 dead and 80 wounded, compared to 59 attacks in Baghdad, 38 deaths, and 165 wounded. Around 90% of the violence in Ninewa occurred in Mosul. There were 55 attacks there in November, resulting in 37 deaths, and 71 wounded. That averaged out to 1.83 attacks per day, 1.23 deaths, and 2.36 wounded. That was the lowest number of attacks since January 2009 when there were 52, and an average of 1.67. 37 was also the lowest number of deaths since at least 2006, if not before.

Mosul is the second most violent city in Iraq after Baghdad. That’s because it is the largest urban stronghold of the insurgency. There are daily reports of assassinations, bombings, and attacks on local officials and security forces. That has begun to change however. Starting in November 2008 attacks and casualties began to see a steady decline. That coincided with the run-up to the January 2009 provincial elections, and the formation of the al-Hadbaa List. The coalition was a collection of Mosul business elites, tribal leaders, and Kurds opposed to the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. (3) Al-Hadbaa was eventually able to work out a cease-fire with local insurgents, and got the backing of local Baathists and their fighters, who by 2008 had been able to assume command of the fighting there from Al Qaeda in Iraq. Al-Hadbaa ended up winning the election, which marked a return of Sunni Arabs to politics in Ninewa after they had boycotted the 2005 vote. The greater participation is directly responsible for the reduction of attacks in Mosul. The divide of the city between Arabs and Kurds however, still gives some reason to turn to violence, and the continued security incidents there.

Attack and Casualty Statistics for Mosul – January to November 2009

January 52 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 1.67/day
56 Deaths, Avg. 1.80/day
56 Wounded, Avg. 1.80/day

February 81 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.89/day
58 Deaths, Avg. 2.00/day
111 Wounded, Avg. 3.96/day

March 86 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.77/day
69 Deaths, Avg. 2.22/day
169 Wounded, Avg. 5.45/day

April 79 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.63/day
53 Deaths, Avg. 1.76/day
191 Wounded, Avg. 6.36/day

May 83 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 3.06/day
64 Deaths, Avg. 2.06/day
164 Wounded, Avg. 4.70/day

June 73 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.43/day
58 Deaths, Avg. 1.93/day
123 Wounded, Avg. 4.10/day

July 73 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.35/day
79 Deaths, Avg. 2.54/day
169 Wounded, Avg. 5.45/day

August 77 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.48/day
102 Deaths, Avg. 3.29/day
171 Wounded, Avg. 5.51/day

September 72 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.40/day
65 Deaths, Avg. 2.16/day
60 Wounded, Avg. 2.00/day

October 66 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 2.12/ day
60 Deaths, Avg. 1.93/ day
82 Wounded, Avg. 2.64/ day

November 55 Attacks/Incidents, Avg. 1.83/ day
37 Deaths, Avg. 1.23/ day
71 Wounded, Avg. 2.36/ day

Averages:

4th Quarter 2007: 38.66 Attacks/Incidents/month, Avg. 1.26/day
77.33 deaths/month, Avg. 2.52/day
114.66 wounded/month, Avg. 3.73/day

1st Half 2008: 57.5 Attacks/Incidents/month, Avg. 1.89/day
88.00 deaths/month, Avg. 2.90/day
210.00 wounded/month, Avg. 6.92/day

2nd Half 2008: 75.33 Attacks/Incidents/month, Avg. 2.45/day
80.83 deaths/month, Avg. 2.63/day
168.33 wounded/month, Avg. 5.48/day

1st Half 2009: 75.66 Attacks/Incidents/month, Avg. 2.50/day
59.66 deaths/month, Avg. 1.97/day
135.66 wounded/month, Avg. 4.49/day

For a history of the violence in post-invasion Mosul see:

The Changing Face of Violence In Mosul

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 charred bodies found inside car bomb,” 11/1/09
- “2 civilians killed in Mosul,” 11/19/09
- “2 civilians wounded in cab bomb blast in Mosul,” 11/1/09
- “2 gunmen killed in IED blast they planted,” 11/8/09
- “2 policemen wounded in hand-grenade blast in Mosul,” 11/12/09
- “3 children wounded in Ninewa blast,” 11/15/09
- “3 mortar shells hit central Mosul,” 11/9/09
- “3 soldiers wounded in Mosul blast,” 11/15/09
- “13-year-old Christian boy shot down in Mosul,” 11/13/09
- “Army officer killed in Mosul blast,” 11/23/09
- “Asiacell employee gunned down in Mosul,” 11/2/09
- “Body found, civilian killed, another wounded separately in Mosul,” 11/12/09
- “Bomb kills child, wounds 5 civilians in Mosul,” 11/15/09
- “Car bomb causes slight damage in Mosul,” 11/25/09
- “Child wounded in Mosul blast,” 11/11/09
- “Civilian killed in eastern Mosul,” 11/9/09
- “Civilian killed, son wounded in western Mosul,” 11/16/09
- “Civilian wounded as police detonates IED,” 11/22/09
- “Civilian wounded by Iraqi fire in Mosul,” 11/10/09
- “Cop wounded in Mosul blast,” 11/11/09
- “Employee shot down by gunmen in Mosul,” 11/1/09
- “Gunmen kill employee in Mosul,” 11/22/09
- “Gunmen wound lawman in Mosul,” 11/3/09
- “Gunmen wound policeman in Mosul,” 11/8/09
- “Hand grenade wounds woman in Mosul,” 11/28/09
- “IED injures 2 cops in Mosul,” 11/20/09
- “IED wounds 2 civilians in Mosul,” 11/16/09
- “IED wounds 5 in western Mosul,” 11/6/09
- “Iraqi soldier shot down by gunmen in Mosul,” 11/26/09
- “Judge survives assassination attempt,” 11/17/09
- “Lawyer shot dead by gunmen in Mosul,” 11/1/09
- “Mortar attack on Sunni endowment leaves 3 wounded,” 11/3/09
- “Officer killed, 2 cops wounded by roadside bomb in Mosul,” 11/5/09
- “Policeman killed by gunmen fire in Mosul,” 11/7/09
- “Security element killed in Mosul,” 11/30/09
- “Soldiers wounded in clashes with gunmen,” 11/21/09
- “Teacher gunned down in Mosul,” 11/21/09
- “Thermal bomb kills, injures 2 cops in Mosul,” 11/30/09
- “Thermal bomb leaves child killed, 4 wounded in Mosul,” 11/22/09
- “Thermal bomb wounds civilian in Mosul,” 11/16/09
- “Turkmen politician assassinated in Mosul,” 11/22/09
- “Unidentified body of young man found in Mosul,” 11/13/09
- “Unknown bodies found in Mosul,” 11/4/09

DPA, “Bomb kills three in northern Iraq,” 11/17/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 3 November 2009,” 11/3/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 10 November 2009,” 11/10/09

International Crisis Group, “Iraq’s New Battlefront: The Struggle Over Ninewa,” 9/28/09

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 6 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/6/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 8 November 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/8/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov. 9,” 11/9/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 26,” 11/26/09

3 comments:

AndrewSshi said...

Joel, can you point me to the source that refers to an al-Hadbaa brokered ceasefire with Ba'ath insurgents? I hadn't seen anything on that beforehand.

And on a mildly related note, has anyone done anything about the structural problems in the Mosul dam?

Joel Wing said...

Andrew,

Re: Al-Hadbaa and insurgents, the last report that mentioned that was the International Crisis Group paper on Ninewa that has a good rundown of the roots and members of Al-Hadbaa as well as the story of a cease-fire. Here's the link:

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6318&l=1

As for the Mosul Dam, I haven't heard anything about improving it at all.

AndrewSshi said...

Thanks for the info!

Mosul Campaign Day 249 Jun 22 2017

What’s left of the Al-Hadbaa minaret west Mosul after IS blew it up (BBC) The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were s...