Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Iraqi Deaths Largely Unchanged In October 2010


Iraqi deaths in October 2010 were around the same level as the previous month. With forming a new government dominating most of the news coming out of the country, neither the Iraqi ministries nor the Associated Press reported their death counts for October. Iraq Body Count recorded 302 deaths last month, only slightly above September's 242. Icasualties had 185 deaths, only 11 more than September's 174. That averaged out to 7.8 deaths per day, hardly changed from 7.7 in September.

There were only two significant attacks in October. On the last day of the month Islamic State of Iraq fighters stormed Our Lady of Salvation Church in Baghdad, holding 100 people hostage for four hours. Iraqi forces ended up re-taking the Christian church, but 58 people were left dead and 75 wounded. The other major incident was a suicide bomb attack upon a café in a Kurdish neighborhood of the Baladrooz district of Diyala province that killed 30 and wounded 50. The rest of the casualties for the month were a mix of roadside, car, and sticky bombs, and shootings, which have unfortunately become the norm in Iraq.

Overall, the numbers show that despite warnings of increased violence because Iraq still does not have a government eight months after its March parliamentary elections, security has not significantly deteriorated. In fact, despite two jumps in July and August when the average number of daily deaths rose to 14.9 and 13.8 respectively, casualties have remained rather steady since January 2010. So far, the country has averaged 9.9 deaths per day in 2010. That's barely changed from 2009 when the average was 10.1.

Monthly Death Counts
Month Iraq Body Count Icasualties Iraqi Ministries Associated Press 
Avg. # Of Deaths Per Day
Jan. 10 
259 
135 
196 
177 
6.1 
Feb. 
296 
236 
352 
255 
10.1 
Mar. 
311 
183 
367 
230 
8.7 
Apr. 
376 
259 
328 
321 
10.7 
May 
370 
279 
337 
278 
10.3 
June 
353 
176 
284 
294 
9.4 
July 
424 
534 
535 
356 
14.9 
Aug. 
503 
363 
426 
N/A 
13.8 
Sep.  
242 
174 
273
N/A 
7.7 
Oct. 
302 
185 
N/A 
N/A 
7.8 



SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “9 detained over Baladruz blast,” 10/30/10
- “Baghdad church attack leaves 133 casualties,” 11/1/10

Icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count

Latif, Nizar, “Iraqis fear al Qa’eda revival as 52 die in church siege,” The National, 11/2/10

2 comments:

AndrewSshi said...

I'm a little surprised that Maliki's mukhabarat-lite hasn't done a better job of dealing with AQIZ left of boom, as it were. By all accounts they're down to a few hundred people now, so it shouldn't be *that* hard to sniff out their most dangerous operators.

Joel Wing said...

Well there's about 3-4 intelligence units in Iraq, none of which cooperate, and many of which are rivals of each other. The military is also divided into different commands, etc. Also despite all its setbacks, AQI has proven to be very resilient, and after the capture of leaders, usually can regenerate to carry out a headline grabbing attack within 1-2 months.

Musings On Iraq In The News

My interview with Charlie Winter on how the Islamic State is dealing with its defeat in Mosul was reprinted by Vox Pol ....