April 2011 Shows That Deaths Have Hit A Plateau In Iraq

Deaths in Iraq have largely been stagnant since January 2009. In twenty of the last twenty-eight months the average number of daily deaths has been in single digits. That’s because many Iraqis have given up their arms and decided to try their hand at politics. April 2011 was another example of the current security situation in Iraq. 

Since 2009 the average number of deaths has hit a plateau. In 2009, there was an average of 10.1 deaths per day, compared to 20.2 the year before, and 67.0 per day in 2007. In 2010, the average death count dropped to 8.7 per day. There have been an average of 7.8 deaths since the beginning of 2011. In April for example, Iraq Body Count reported 283 deaths, icasualties had 152, and Iraq’s ministers reported 211. That averaged out to 214 deaths per month, and 7.1 per day. Casualties have flattened out for three important reasons. First, the sectarian civil war ended in 2008. Second, the government cracked down on Shiite militias in that year as well. Third, in January 2009 Iraq held provincial elections, and many Sunnis and insurgents decided join the political process after boycotting the 2005 vote. That has meant that while there are occasional spikes in violence due to some large terrorist attacks, month to month, year-to-year violence has leveled off since taking a huge drop from 2008 to 2009.

Iraqi Death Counts And Averages Last 12 Months

	Iraq Body Count	Icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
May 10	377	279	337	331	10.6
Jun.	368	176	284	276	9.2
Jul.	430	534	535	499	16.1
Aug.	517	363	426	435	14.0
Sep.	252	174	273	233	7.7
Oct.	311	185	293	263	8.4
Nov.	302	174	171	215	7.1
Dec.	217	128	151	165	5.3
Jan. 11	387	210	259	285	9.2
Feb.	250	216	167	211	7.5
Mar.	307	171	247	235	7.7
Apr.	283	152	211	214	7.1

SOURCES

Chaudhry, Serena, “Iraqi violent deaths, but injuries drop in April,” Reuters, 5/1/11

icasualties

International Crisis Group, “Iraq’s Provincial Elections: The Stakes,” 1/27/09

Iraq Body Count