In an interview with Musings On Iraq, Dr. Michael Knights of
the Washington Institute for Near East Policy pointed out that violence in Iraq has become increasingly localized. Between provinces and cities within the
country there are great variations in the level of attacks and deaths. For
instance, in places like Baghdad and Mosul there are on average a 100 a more
attacks per month. That compares to places like Kut in Wasit province where an
incident may only happen every few months. Even within cities there are
differences. Mosul per capita, is the most violent urban area in Iraq, but even
there 100 attacks spread out across a 10 mile area with around 1.8 million
people means most only hear or read about an explosion or gunfire rather than
actually witness it. This all points to the complicated nature of security in
Iraq at present. Press reports of mass casualty bombings, especially now with
the insurgents carrying out a summer offensive, give the impression that the
whole nation must be on fire. A study of casualties across 30 cities shows that
militants are in fact greatly limited in where they can carry out their deadly
work.
Tracking violence in Iraq is extremely difficult today using
open sources. Press reports capture many incidents, but not all of them. There
are security firms like the Olive Group that issue weekly reports, but they
do not capture everything either. The United Nations used to have a website
dedicated to attacks and deaths, but it has gone down in recent months. Iraq Body Count is widely considered one of the longest running and most
consistent in its coverage, but it too is limited, since it only records
deaths. Given the fact that it provides daily statistics on casualties however,
it will be used as the basis of this study.
Iraq Body Count’s database was used to track fatalities in
30 Iraqi cities that cover all regions of the country. This gives a sampling of
the wide variations in insurgent activity today. Groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq
for instance, claim that they are trying to regroup and expand their operations
this summer. On July 21, 2012, its umbrella organization the Islamic State of
Iraq announced Operation Breaking Walls, which was aimed at regaining ground it
had lost, while the Americans were in the country. That coincided with a high number of deaths in June and July. There have since been reports that
it is trying to impose a tax system in provinces like Diyala and Anbar to fund
its work, and it has started issuing monthly internet announcements bragging about its effectiveness. Iraq Body Count’s figures however, show
that Al Qaeda and other militants like the Baathist Naqshibandi are only able
to sustain operations in a few of Iraq’s 18 provinces. Most of their attacks
occur between Baghdad and Ninewa, which is roughly only one third of the
country. In 2011, 68% of attacks recorded by the U.N. happened in just 4
governorates, Baghdad, Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Diyala. They are not even
able to impose their will consistently across those provinces, as the numbers
will show.
Baghdad is Iraq’s largest city and the seat of government.
It has been a focal point for violence since the 2003 invasion as a result.
That’s why it consistently has the highest death counts of any urban area. Even
then, attacks come in waves that coincide with Shiite religious events, which
are consistently targeted, and the summer when militants carry out their annual
offensive. In August and September 2011 for instance, there were 86 and 68
deaths respectively. That then shot up to 156 in October, as the capital became
the focus of the last month of the summer season, before dropping to 46 the
next. Then in December, there were 139 fatalities, largely due to 17 explosions across the city on December 22, as the Islamic State claimed it was
launching a new effort to rekindle the sectarian war and bring down the
government. Those high numbers continued into January 2012, as Al Qaeda went after Shiite pilgrims. Those figures then saw a steady drop from 103 in
February to 44 in March, 54 in April, and 49 in May, which is traditionally
when insurgents regroup. June marked the beginning of the new summer offensive
with 147 deaths, then 73 in July, and 102 in August. The figures for Baghdad
show the up and down nature of attacks in Iraq. Certain months are extremely
deadly, while others have relatively low figures. They also show how insurgents
have concentrated most of their resources on the capital since it offers so
many targets, and is an attempt to show that the government is not in complete
control of the country. Still, in a city as vast as Baghdad with a population
of at least 5 million, an average of 99.5 deaths per month shows that the vast
majority of the populace is not really affected.
Baghdad Casualty Figures
August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 86
September 2011 – 68
October 2011 – 156
November 2011 – 46
December 2011 – 139
January 2012 – 127
February 2012 – 103
March 2012 – 44
April 2012 – 54
May 2012 49
June 2012 147
July 2012 – 73
August 2012 – 102
Mosul, in Ninewa province, is the last major urban
stronghold of the insurgency, and a major source of its funding. Attacks there
are different than in Baghdad. There most casualties are caused by bombings. In
Mosul, shootings are far more common. In August and September 2011, there were
only 23 and 31 deaths respectively. That jumped to 78 in October, before going
down to 30 in November, and then increasing again to 62 in December. That
pattern was followed in 2012 with 38 killed in January, 42 in February, 61 in
March, 58 in April, 32 in May, 55 in June, 48 in July, and 55 in August. Like
in the capital, security incidents go up and down in number, but not always at
the same times. Since small arms are the main tools used, there are far fewer
casualties there than in Baghdad where large explosions take a heavier toll,
yet Mosul is the second deadliest city in the country. Still, there was only an
average of 51.0 deaths per month amongst 1.8 million people from August 2011 to
August 2012.
Mosul, Ninewa Casualty
Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 23
September 2011 – 31
October 2011 – 78
November 2011 – 30
December 2011 – 62
January 2012 – 38
February 2012 – 42
March 2012 – 61
April 2012 – 58
May 2012 – 32
June 2012 – 55
July 2012 – 48
August 2012 - 55
The insurgents’ strong base in Mosul does not mean they are
as active in the rest of Ninewa. In Sinjar and Tal Afar, which are to the west,
there is very little violence. In Sinjar for example, there were no deaths from
August 2011 to August 2012. In Tal Afar for that same time period, there were
only a total of 35 killed. 20 of those were due to a car bomb and a suicide bomber at a restaurant in the city on March 7, 2012. This shows that
militants are not able to operate freely across provinces, even when they have
a large foothold in one urban area. This is highlighted in other governorates as
well.
Sinjar, Ninewa
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 0
Tal Afar, Ninewa
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 1
December 2011 – 4
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 21
April 2012 – 3
May 2012 – 1
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 3
August 2012 - 2
Salahaddin, Diyala, and Anbar are three areas that have
traditionally been stomping grounds for insurgents. Like in Ninewa however, they
only seem to be concentrated in specific cities. In Salahaddin, which was the
province of Saddam Hussein, his hometown of Tikrit is largely quite, along with
Samarra, and Baiji. Tikrit only had 35 people killed from August 2011 to August
2012. For that same period, 54 died in Samarra, and 21 in Baiji. In Diyala,
Baquba was far deadlier for that time with 164 casualties. Those high figures
were not seen in other cities of the governorate though. In Jalawala and
Khanaqin, which are in the disputed territories, Kurds have consistently claimed that they have been under attack. Very few deaths have occurred in
either city however with 11 in the former and 5 in the latter. Likewise, other
cities in the province such as Mandali and Muqtadiya saw very few casualties as
well with just 0 and 36 respectively. The same pattern is seen in Anbar.
Fallujah and Ramadi have been longtime bases for insurgents and remain the most
insecure in the governorate with 133 and 125 deaths from August 2011 to August
2012. Outside of those areas however, there are very few casualties. In Haditha
there were only 9, in Rutba just 3, and 4 in Qaim. Again, the insurgents are
not evenly distributed throughout these provinces. Some areas see monthly
attacks, but most have only sporadic incidents with many being relatively
peaceful beyond an occasional explosion or shooting.
Tikrit, Salahaddin
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 5
September 2011 – 2
October 2011 – 1
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 2
January 2012 – 2
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 6
April 2012 – 4
May 2012 – 2
June 2012 – 1
July 2012 – 1
August 2012 – 9
Samarra, Salahaddin
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 1
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 3
November 2011 – 11
December 2011 – 2
January 2012 – 6
February 2012 – 1
March 2012 – 6
April 2012 – 7
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 7
July 2012 – 6
August 2012 – 4
Baiji, Salahaddin
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 1
January 2012 – 2
February 2012 – 4
March 2012 – 2
April 2012 – 1
May 20 12 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 - 11
Baquba, Diyala
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 11
September 2011 – 11
October 2011 – 13
November 2011 – 3
December 2011 – 6
January 2012 – 13
February 2012 – 18
March 2012 – 6
April 2012 10
May 2012 – 1
June 2012 – 52
July 2012 – 6
August 2012 - 14
Jalawla, Diyala
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 4
September 2011 – 1
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 1
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 5
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 0
Khanaqin, Diyala
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 1
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 1
February 2012 – 1
March 2012 – 0
April 012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 - 2
Mandali, Diyala
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 0
Muqtadiya, Diyala
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 1
September 2011 – 6
October 2011 – 1
November 2011 – 1
December 2011 – 1
January 2012 – 4
February 2012 – 1
March 2012 – 1
April 2012 – 1
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 1
July 2012 – 8
August 2012 - 10
Fallujah, Anbar
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 9
September 2011 – 4
October 2011 – 6
November 2011 – 5
December 2011 – 15
January 2012 – 6
February 2012 – 10
March 2012 – 7
April 2012 – 2
May 2012 – 11
June 2012 – 24
July 2012 – 11
August 2012 – 23
Ramadi, Anbar
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 23
September 2011 – 11
October 2011 – 6
November 2011 – 9
December 2011 – 4
January 2012 – 13
February 2012 – 5
March 2012 – 6
April 2012 – 6
May 2012 – 13
June 2012 – 18
July 2012 – 11
August 2012 – 0
Haditha, Anbar
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 3
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 - 6
Rutba, Anbar Casualty
Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 - 3
Qaim, Anbar Casualty
Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 3
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 1
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 - 0
Kirkuk in Tamim governorate has been a flash point in Iraq
for years, because it is hotly contested between the Kurdish Regional
Government (KRG), which wishes to annex it and the central government in
Baghdad. Its multi-ethnic composition has also been a target of insurgents who
wish to divide the groups. It’s for those reasons that the city has a
relatively high mark of 168 killed from August 2011 to August 2012.
Kirkuk, Tamim
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 6 killed
September 2011 – 19
October 2011 – 4
November 2011 – 8
December 2011 – 15
January 2012 – 16
February 2012 – 8
March 2012 – 8
April 2012 – 12
May 2012 – 9
June 2012 – 5
July 2012 – 14
August 2012 – 32
In southern Iraq, security is completely different. There
attacks are far and few between. Insurgents like to target Shiite pilgrims
heading towards holy sites, but their ability to carry out these operations
within the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf are negligible. In Karbala for
instance, there were only 14 casualties from August 2011 to August 2012, with
13 of those occurring in one incident when a restaurant in the city was hit by a car bomb. In Najaf, only 13 people were killed over that same time
period, with 8 in August 2011, and 5 in July 2012. Similar low numbers were
seen in other cities of the region, such as Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar where only 2
people died over those thirteen months, and in Samawa in Muthanna, Umm Qasr in Basra, and Amarah in
Maysan where there were no casualties. That doesn’t mean insurgents were not
active in the area. Certain cities did witness some large attacks. Kut, in
Wasit, saw 40 killed in August 2011 by a twin bombing in a market. After
that incident however, only 15 more died over the next eleven months. Likewise,
in Babil’s Hillah, 73 died during that period, with 21 being police recruits and civilians dying in a car bombing of a restaurant in June 2012.
Diwaniya in Qadisiyah was similar with 53 fatalities, 40 of which were due to a truck bombing in a market. Finally, the major city of the south, Basra,
had 55 deaths, 23 coming from bombings of a market, and twelve from a motorcycle bomb outside a café, both in November 2011. Even then, violence
across the south was sporadic. Babil saw the most militant activity, but even
then, eleven out of the 13 months from August 2011 to August 2012 had less then
ten killed each month. Basically, outside of the occasional large bombing at a
market, most of the south was relatively quite. That showed that insurgents
could only venture into the region. Carry out a car, truck or motorcycle
bombing in a city, and then leave.
Karbala, Karbala
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 17
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 13
April 2012 – 1
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 0
Najaf, Najaf Casualty
Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 8
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 5
August 2012 – 0
Nasiriyah, Dhi Qar
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 1
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 1
Samawa, Muthanna
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 0
Amarah, Maysan
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 0
Umm Qasr, Basra
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 0
Kut, Wasit Casualty
Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 42
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 1
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 1
January 2012 – 1
February 2012 – 2
March 2012 – 3
April 2012 – 1
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 6
Hillah, Babil
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 11
September 2011 – 1
October 2011 – 1
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 5
January 2012 – 9
February 2012 – 2
March 2012 – 8
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 32
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 – 4
Diwaniya, Qadisiyah
Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 3
October 2011 – 2
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 1
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 2
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 45
August 2012 - 0
Basra, Basra Casualty
Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 4
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 35
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 3
February 2012 – 3
March 2012 – 5
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 3
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 0
August 2012 - 2
That leaves the northern Kurdish region, which is by far the
most secure area of the country. In two of its main cities, Irbil and
Sulaymaniya, there were only six people killed between them, none of which
appeared to be due to insurgent activity. With its largely no-Arab population
and tight border control the Kurdistan region is not conducive to militant
infiltration.
Irbil, Irbil Casualty
Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 1
September 2011 – 1
October 2011 – 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012 – 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 2
August 2012 – 0
Sulaymaniya,
Sulaymaniya Casualty Figures August 2011-August 2012
August 2011 – 0
September 2011 – 0
October 2011 - 0
November 2011 – 0
December 2011 – 0
January 2012 – 0
February 2012 – 0
March 2012- 0
April 2012 – 0
May 2012 – 0
June 2012 – 0
July 2012 – 2
August 2012 - 0
The 30 cities included in this survey show how security
varies across Iraq. Baghdad and Mosul remain the two most violent cities of the
nation, but even then, the number killed are such a small fraction of the
population, that most are able to go about their lives without fear of
suffering wounds or losing their life. That’s even more so in the south where a
bombing might occur just once or twice a year. Then there’s Kurdistan where
insurgents are not able to carry out any attacks. Sunni armed groups are still
active in Iraq, but they are limited to certain areas of the country. Not only
that, but they are only able to carry out a large number of operations for a
limited amount of time before they have to regroup and rearm. This is far
different from the years of the civil war when thousands were dying each month,
militants could openly walk down the streets, certain parts of cities were off
limits to the security forces, and polls showed that a majority of Iraqis had
at least personally witnessed an act of violence. Iraq still faces daily
violence, but it is important to note its increasingly limited affect upon the
general population.
SOURCES
Iraq Body Count
Al-Khoei, Hayder, “Al-Qaeda’s surge spells further turmoil
for Iraq,” Guardian, 8/21/12
Mohammed, Bryar, “Khanaqin council demands peshmerga
protection,” AK News, 7/26/12
Musings On Iraq, “What Is Security Like Today In Iraq? An
Interview With Dr. Michael Knights,” 7/31/12
Olive Group, “Weekly Security Update,” Iraq Business News,
9/13/12
Reuters, “Qaeda claims latest deadly Iraq attacks,” 9/10/12
Shafaq News, “Source: Al-Qaeda imposes taxes in Diyala and
Anbar,” 9/8/12
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Is anyone using Internet Explorer having problems with the site? I use Firefox at home, but Explorer at work, and it gets the articles all messed up and you can't access the entire front page. Please let me know. This has happened before with Explorer cutting things off.
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