The issue of Kurdish independence has recently become a hot
issue. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani has started threatening succession due to his dispute with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Kurdish deals with oil majors have also led commentators to predict that Kurdistan would soon leave Iraq. A recent poll by the
Kurdistan Institute for Political Issues found just fewer than 60% of Kurdish
respondents supported the idea of independence. While a high amount, it was far
below some earlier data collected in the years immediately after the fall of
Saddam Hussein. Rather than showing a decline in the belief of the Kurds one
day achieving their sovereignty, the poll rather points to greater
sophistication amongst inhabitants of the KRG of the problems facing them if
they were to take the step of leaving Iraq.
(IRIN) |
At the end of September 2012, the Kurdistan Institute for
Political Issues released a new public opinion poll. It asked 2,500 people in Irbil, Sulaymaniya, and Dohuk provinces whether Kurdistan should declare its independence. That included 978 people in Sulaymaniya, 892 in Irbil, and
596 in Dohuk. Out of those, 56.3% said they were behind the idea. Dohuk showed
the strongest approval with 81.21% saying yes, followed by 54.82% in Irbil, and
only 46.42% in Sulaymaniya. When a person said no to the question, they were
asked why it was not a good idea. 49.28% said that Kurdistan had to develop further before it was ready to break away from Iraq. After
that, 26.37% said that other countries would threaten a new Kurdish state,
while 23.1% felt that the U.S. and international community would not guarantee
Kurdish sovereignty. While a large percentage obviously supported the drive for
Kurdish independence it was not an overwhelming amount. That was especially
shown in Sulaymaniya where less than half said yes to the question. For those
that said no there appeared a growing realization that will and desire alone
would not make a successful new country. Countries that have large Kurdish
populations of their own, who do not want them to push for sovereignty for
example, surround Kurdistan. They are opposed to Kurdish independence
therefore. Being a landlocked region that could prove catastrophic as its economy
could be strangled if surrounding powers decided to limit trade as a result.
Those are obvious threats however, which the Kurds have faced for decades. More
importantly, around 50% said that Kurdistan needed to make more internal
progress before it was ready for independence. No specifics were mentioned
about just what that meant, but it could be any number of things such as the
economy, which is underdeveloped, due to its dependence upon the government,
oil, and imports, or any number of other issues. Whatever the reason many
people now realize that Kurdistan is not ready for independence yet, despite
all the press reports and political statements to that affect that have come
out recently.
The 2012 poll is a decided change from previous accounts of
Kurdish support for independence. In early 2004 for instance, a petition was
circulated, which allegedly garnered 1.7 million signatures demanding Kurdistan’s independence. In January 2005, the Independent Kurdistan
Referendum Movement held an informal vote, and claimed that 98-99% of
respondents expressed support for breaking away from Iraq. At that time,
the exuberance following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein made many Kurds feel
that the next step might be their independence. The region’s leaders had other
plans however. In March 2005, Jalal Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan, told Time magazine that while many people were pushing for Kurdish sovereignty it was not time yet. Instead, the ruling parties in
Kurdistan were going to try to work within the new Iraq. Seven years later, the
KRG is still part of the country.
Independence will always remain an issue within the
Kurdistan region. Many Kurds do not feel like they are a part of Iraq, the
economy is growing, major oil companies have decided to invest there, and
President Barzani has brought up the issue several times, because he is not
getting along with the prime minister. Still, the poll by the Kurdistan
Institute for Political Issues shows that while a majority of those questioned
support the idea, there is sobriety about whether it is the right time to do
so. Logistically, there are many barriers such as the fact that the Kurdish
economy is dominated by the government, which in turn gets 95% of its funds
from the national budget making Kurdistan dependent upon the southern oil
fields just like the rest of the country. There are also on-going political
disputes between the ruling parties, which would likely be exasperated if the
KRG moved towards independence. Many Kurds are beginning to realize these
issues, which is likely the reason why the Institute received its results.
SOURCES
Abdul-Rahman, Mohammed, “Barzani warns Kurds not ready to
live under “dictatorship,”” AK News, 9/22/12
Butters, Andrew Lee, “Revenge of the Kurds,” Time, 3/7/05
Dunlop, W.G., “Oil key to any Iraqi Kurdistan independence
bid,” Agence France Presse, 6/23/12
Galbraith, Peter, “Iraq: The Bungled Transition,” New York
Review of Books, 9/23/04
- “Iraq: Bush’s Islamic Republic,” New York Review of Books,
8/11/05
International Crisis Group, “Iraq And The Kurds: The
High-Stakes Hydrocarbons Gambit,” 4/19/12
Mohammed, Fryad, “Majority of Kurds are for independence,”
AK News, 9/27/12
1 comment:
Great analysis Joel, it seems the support for Kurdish independence is inversely proportional to proximity with Iran.
Faisal
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