Monday, December 1, 2014

Violence Remains Low In Iraq 4th Week Of November 2014


Violence stayed at a low level in the fourth week of November 2014. Attacks remained steady at around 130 just like the previous week. Deaths were down by 150 from the third week, but casualties were about the same due to a high number of wounded. From November 22-28 insurgents made a concerted effort to take the Anbar provincial capital of Ramadi, failed to take Tal Ward in Kirkuk and carried out attacks across Salahaddin. On the other hand, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), militias and peshmerga were on the offensive in Diyala and Salahaddin. Overall the insurgents have lost the initiative in much of the country, which accounts for the decline in attacks and violence.

During the fourth week of November there were just 138 reported security incidents in Iraq. That was just around the same amount as the week before, which saw 134, and 128 from November 8-14. Attacks have been going down for the last several months after the height of the summer offensive, but these are the lowest reported number of incidents for the whole year. Baghdad led the way with 38 attacks, followed by 28 in Anbar, 25 in Salahaddin, 19 in Ninewa, 10 in Diyala, nine in Babil, seven in Kirkuk, and one each in Basra and Maysan.

November 22-28 also saw the fewest deaths of any week of 2014. There were just 138 surpassing the previous low of 246 seen from May 1-7. The week’s fatalities were made up of 99 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 41 peshmerga, seven sahwa, and 154 civilians. Another 641 people were wounded consisting of 91 ISF, 65 peshmerga, 10 sahwa, and 474 civilians. Baghdad had the most killed at 87. Anbar and Ninewa had 65 each, Diyala had 43, Salahaddin had 25, Babil 18, Kirkuk 16, and Basra and Maysan one each.


Violence In Iraq By Week 2014
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
244
363
733
Jan 8-14
272
364
676
Jan 15-21
205
358
616
Jan 22-28
236
305
618
Jan 29-31
57
93
237
JAN
1,014
1,483
2,890
Feb 1-7
211
306
706
Feb 8-14
229
258
505
Feb 15-21
264
347
703
Feb 22-28
251
374
617
FEB
955
1,285
2,531
Mar 1-7
252
412
702
Mar 8-14
205
323
610
Mar 15-21
216
423
736
Mar 22-27
211
279
580
Mar 28-31
108
169
261
MAR
992
1,606
2,889
Apr 1-7
238
259
550
Apr 8-14
224
362
646
Apr 15-21
241
406
805
Apr 22-28
226
347
744
Apr 29-30
61
82
179
APR
990
1,456
2,924
May 1-7
198
246
483
May 8-14
257
466
752
May 15-21
183
256
426
May 22-28
203
403
810
May 29-31
64
91
131
MAY
905
1,462
2,602
Jun 1-7
228
612
1,020
Jun 8-14
234
1,889
890
Jun 15-21
179
803
759
Jun 22-28
203
733
777
Jun 29-30
59
127
236
JUN
901
4,172
3,701
Jul 1-7
203
526
651
Jul 8-14
214
577
628
Jul 15-21
230
444
1,009
Jul 22-28
224
589
801
Jul 29-31
66
163
230
JUL
937
2,299
3,319
Aug 1-8
269
1,122
885
Aug 9-14
179
710
1,152
Aug 15-21
150
354
499
Aug 22-28
156
523
798
Aug 29-31
59
125
289
AUG
813
2,834
3,623
Sep 1-7
168
616
751
Sep 8-14
156
433
722
Sep 15-21
166
620
749
Sep 22-28
153
395
573
Sep 29-30
47
112
252
SEP
690
2,176
3,047
Oct 1-7
170
451
687
Oct 8-14
188
532
875
Oct 15-21
156
449
770
Oct 22-28
159
345
592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31
68
570
227
OCT
741
2,347
3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7
153
601
828
Nov 8-14
128
420
593
Nov 15-21
134
283
453
Nov 22-28
138
138
641

Violence In Iraq By Province Nov 2014
Province
Nov 1-7
Nov 8-14
Anbar
29 Incidents
290 Killed: 12 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 275 Civilians
191 Wounded: 28 ISF, 163 Civilians
14 Shootings
2 Car Bombs
1 Suicide Car Bomb
19 Incidents
107 Killed: 9 ISF, 98 Civilians
62 Wounded: 11 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 51 Civilians
9 Shootings
1 IED
1 Car Bomb
2 Suicide Car Bombs
Babil
11 Incidents
30 Killed: 5 ISF, 25 Civilians
84 Wounded: 5 ISF, 79 Civilians
3 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
2 Car Bombs
9 Incidents
16 Killed: 7 ISF, 9 Civilians
48 Wounded: 21 ISF, 27 Civilians
1 Shooting
5 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Suicide Car Bomb
Baghdad
41 Incidents
172 Killed: 14 ISF, 158 Civilians
389 Wounded: 9 ISF, 380 Civilians
10 Shootings
22 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
4 Car Bombs
2 Suicide Car Bombs
41 Incidents
145 Killed: 12 ISF, 133 Civilians
359 Wounded: 24 ISF, 335 Civilians
9 Shootings
16 IEDs
3 Sticky Bombs
8 Car Bombs
4 Suicide Car Bombs
Basra
1 Incident
2 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Diyala
7 Incidents
4 Killed: 4 Civilians
5 Wounded: 4 ISF, 1 Civilian
5 Shootings
2 IEDs
9 Incidents
18 Killed: 5 ISF, 3 Asayesh, 10 Civilians
47 Wounded: 24 ISF, 10 Asayesh, 133 Civilians
4 Shootings
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
2 Suicide Car Bombs
Kirkuk
3 Incidents
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
8 Wounded: 8 Civilians
2 Shootings
2 IEDs
9 Incidents
31 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 30 Civilians
24 Wounded: 20 Peshmerga, 4 Civilians
7 Shootings
1 IED
1 Suicide Car Bomb
Maysan
-
2 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
1 Stun Bomb
Ninewa
11 Incidents
13 Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Civilians
9 Shootings
1 IED
12 Incidents
26 Killed: 4 Peshmerga, 22 Civilians
5 Shootings
Qadisiyah
-
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Salahaddin
49 Incidents
87 Killed: 31 ISF, 56 Civilians
136 Wounded: 75 ISF, 61 Civilians
15 Shootings
73 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
4 Suicide Car Bombs
24 Incidents
74 Killed: 35 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 38 Civilians
51 Wounded: 40 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 7 Civilians
9 Shootings
26 IEDs
3 Suicide Car Bombs
Wasit
1 Incident
3 Killed: 3 Civilians
15 Wounded: 2 ISF, 13 Civilians
-

Province
Nov 15-21
Nov 22-28
Anbar
29 Incidents
90 Killed: 37 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 51 Civilians
54 Wounded: 10 ISF, 10 Sahwa, 34 Civilians
18 Shootings
1 IED
2 Suicide Bombers
28 Incidents
65 Killed: 37 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 22 Civilians
119 Wounded: 26 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 89 Civilians
20 Shootings
1 IED
1 Suicide Bomber
2 Suicide Car Bombs
Babil
6 Incidents
8 Killed: 1 ISF, 7 Civilians
26 Wounded: 6 ISF, 20 Civilians
5 IEDs
9 Incidents
18 Killed: 2 ISF, 16 Civilians
49 Wounded: 7 ISF, 42 Civilians
2 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
Baghdad
42 Incidents
61 Killed: 8 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 51 Civilians
211 Wounded: 28 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 181 Civilians
9 Shootings
22 IEDs
3 Sticky Bombs
3 Car Bombs
2 Suicide Car Bombs
38 Incidents
87 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 85 Civilians
243 Wounded: 2 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 237 Civilians
8 Shootings
23 IEDs
4 Sticky Bombs
3 Car Bombs
Basra
-
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Diyala
12 Incidents
18 Killed: 12 ISF, 6 Civilians
30 Wounded: 2 ISF, 28 Civilians
6 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
10 Incidents
43 Killed: 5 ISF, 25 Peshmerga, 13 Civilians
87 Wounded: 33 ISF, 45 Peshmerga, 9 Civilians
8 Shootings
1 IED
1 Suicide Car Bomb
Irbil
1 Incident
10 Killed: 2 Police, 10 Civilians
23 Wounded: 23 Civilians
1 Suicide Car Bomb
-
Kirkuk
5 Incidents
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
2 Shootings
1 IED
1 Car Bomb
7 Incidents
16 Killed: 16 Peshmerga
20 Wounded: 20 Peshmerga
5 Shootings
1 IED
1 Suicide Bombers
Maysan
-
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Ninewa
10 Incidents
22 Killed: 22 Civilians
5 Shootings
1 IED
19 Incidents
65 Killed: 50 ISF, 15 Civilians
10 Shootings
3 IEDs
Qadisiyah
1 Incident
1 IED
-
Salahaddin
27 Incidents
68 Killed: 16 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 50 Civilians
109 Wounded: 24 ISF, 9 Sahwa, 76 Civilians
12 Shootings
34 IEDs
2 Suicide Car Bombs
25 Incidents
25 Killed: 4 ISF, 21 Civilians
122 Wounded: 23 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 97 Civilians
18 Shootings
5 IEDs

One cause of the decline in casualties was due to the fewest car bombs of the year. During the week there were just seven vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). That left 48 people dead and 68 injured. Attacks were spread across Anbar, Babil, Baghdad, and Diyala. That matched August 16-21 when there were also seven such attacks. The previous week in November there were just twelve.

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Nov 2014
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Nov 1
Yusifiya, Babil
Dora & Palestine St, Baghdad
47
119
Nov 2
Yusifiya, Babil
Bayaa, Sadoun St, Sadr City, Baghdad
38
103
Nov 3
Tunis, Baghdad
36

Nov 4



Nov 5
Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin
4
7
Nov 6
Hit & Baghdadi, Anbar
Baiji, Salahaddin
18
26
Nov 7
Baghdadi, Anbar
Baiji x3, Salahaddin
11
30
1st Wk Totals
16
154
285
Nov 8
Southeast of Hit, Anbar
Sadr City, Amin, Amil x2 & Zafaraniya, Baghdad
42
125
Nov 9



Nov 10



Nov 11
Shaab, Baghdad
Kirkuk, Kirkuk
Tarmiya, Salahaddin
36
27
Nov 12
Yusifiya, Babil
Mansour x2 & Rasheed, Baghdad
Edheim, Diyala
26
68
Nov 13
Mamil, Baghdad
Bani Saad & Kirfri, Diyala
13
33
Nov 14
Ramadi x2, Anbar
Adhamiya & Morocco St, Baghdad
Baiji & Tikrit, Salahaddin
42
83
2nd Wk Totals
23
159
336
Nov 15
Hamamiyat, Baghdad
Taji, Salahaddin
18
54
Nov 16
Abbas Ibn Firmas Sq & Amiriya, Baghdad
2
8
Nov 17
Jubba x2, Anbar
Meshtal & Amiriya, Baghdad
14
42
Nov 18



Nov 19
Irbil, Irbil
Kirkuk, Kirkuk
Tarmiya, Salahaddin
19
37
Nov 20
Ramadi, Anbar
6
7
Nov 21



3rd Wk Totals
12
59
148
Nov 22



Nov 23
Ramadi, Anbar
Yusifiya, Babil
Outside Sadiya, Diyala
16
41
Nov 24
Trebil, Anbar
Shaab, Baghdad
20
44
Nov 25
Dora, Baghdad
5
8
Nov 26
Sadr City, Baghdad
7
15
Nov 27



Nov 28



4th Wk Totals
7
48
68

(New York Times)
Anbar was the site of some of the major fighting during the week. That was centered on Ramadi where the insurgents are making a major push to take the city. The battle is also raging in many of the surrounded villages such as Khalidiya. On November 23 the militants started with a surprise attack wearing ISF uniforms and focused upon the southern, western and downtown sections of the city. Militants were able to hit the government complex in the center of the city with mortar fire. The battle also spread to neighboring Jazeera and Abu Risha. The next day IS and its allies came at the city from four sides and even included a river assault in the north across the Euphrates River. Members of the ISF claimed sleeper cells were also active. November 25 IS gained control of the Education directorate in the government center. They also cut the roads to the 8th Division base to the west of the city and roads heading east. Besides defending Ramadi the ISF and tribes have been focused upon taking the small towns around Hit. The Islamic State (IS) commander who was said to be responsible for executing hundreds of members of the Albu Nimr tribe in recent weeks was believed to have been killed by a coalition air strike. Anbar has been one of the few places where IS has retained the initiative. In October it seized several towns in the middle of the province, and is now trying to take the capital. The outcome there is still up in the air. The government has been promising a major offensive to make up for these losses, but one has not materialized yet. That either points to a lack of a strategy for the province or confirms reports that Baghdad has largely written off Anbar to focus upon other areas of the country.

In other parts of Iraq the militants are losing ground such as in Babil. The ISF and militias successfully cleared out Jurf al-Sakhr in the northeast, which was a long time base for armed factions. Since then IS has relocated to the north. Out of the nine reported attacks in the province eight were in that region in Yusifiya, Latifiya and Mahmudiya. The Baghdad Operations Command is now focused upon the areas outside of Latifiya, and will likely move onto those other cities as well.

(BBC)

Diyala was the site of another government offensive, but in the aftermath there has been disputes over who will control the freed territory. On November 23 the ISF, militias and peshmerga moved into Sadiya and Jalawla in the northeast. Afterwards the Kurds and the Badr Organization argued over who would run the two towns. The peshmerga asked the militias to leave Sadiya, and accused them of looting in Jalawla. Then on November 26 Badr head Hadi Ameri told the press that the Kurds had nothing to do with the successful operation. Bas News that is not always a reliable source claimed that Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander General Qasim Suleimani cut a quid pro quo deal between the militias the Kurds. In return for peshmerga support for breaking the siege of Amerli, Salahaddin in August the militias would help free Sadiya and Jalawla. Suleimani also negotiated militias controlling Jalawla, while the Kurds would have Sadiya. Afterward the peshmerga moved into Qara Tapa, while the ISF and militias focused upon the Hamrin area once again and Bani Saad. On November 28 the ISF claimed it had cleared the Hamrin Mountains, but they’ve said that before only to go back into the region. IS made some minor gains in the province during the summer, but they are now losing ground. The political disputes that are emerging between the Kurds and peshmerga are repeating similar arguments going on in Salahaddin. The Kurds consider places like Jalawla and Sadiya disputed territories that were taken from them by Saddam, while the militias want them to remain under government control. This has turned violent in Salahaddin, and could do the same in Diyala.

Kirkuk has remained relatively quite since the summer, but IS made an attempt to take Tal Ward outside of Kirkuk city in the middle of the week. On November 26 there was heavy fighting with the peshmerga there, which dragged out into the next day. The Kurds were able to hold the area with the loss of 16 fighters and 20 wounded. There have been constant warnings from Kurdish official in the governorate that IS was preparing some large operation there. Whether the assault upon Tal Ward was it or another is coming is unknown.

Salahaddin remains the other main battle site in Iraq. Despite reports by the ISF that Baiji as cleared the town itself remains contested. There was fighting there throughout the week. Government forces also continued their push on towns outside of Tikrit. The insurgents on the other hand are continuing with operations throughout the province. That included Balad, Ishaqi, Dhuluiya, and outside Samarra. Finally, people have begun to complain about militias in the Baiji area. That includes burning and blowing up houses, and attacking civilians. Shiite groups have been doing the same thing in the Tuz Kharmato district after that area was cleared.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Daash control Anbar Directorate building central Ramadi,” 11/25/14
- "Killing and wounding eight of the security services and popular brigades in suicide bombing northeast of Baquba," 11/23/14
- “Peshmerga preparing for an attack on Mount Sinjar,” 11/24/14
- “Security forces and Albu Nimr tribe free two villages west of Hit,” 11/25/14

Associated Press, "Officials say car bomb kills 7 people in Iraq," 11/23/14

Bas News, “PHOTO: After Liberation, Looting Starts in Jalawla,” 11/25/14

Al Forat, “Himreen Mountains purged of terrorists,” 11/28/14
- “ISF siege Heet District to liberate it from ISIL,” 11/23/14
- “ISF take control over Sayed Ghraib area of southern Tikrit,” 11/22/14

George, Susannah, “Key provincial capital in Iraq may be about to fall to Islamic State,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/26/14

Hewrami, Sirwe, “Shiite militia commander: No Kurdish force took part in Saadiya liberation,” Rudaw, 11/26/14

Independent Press Agency, “Baghdad Operations Announce cleansing villages west of Latifiyah and killed dozens of elements of Daash,” 11/23/14

Iraq Times, "Death toll rises in car bombing to 50 martyrs and wounded," 11/24/14

Al Mada, “Controversy over popular brigades following daily complaints by locals,” 11/26/14
- “Gunmen were about to occupy the Anbar government compound .. and 700 Albu Alwan fighters prevented the fall of Ramadi,” 11/24/14
- "Killing and wounding nine people in double suicide bombing targeting the home of Emri of Dulaim central Ramadi," 11/23/14
- "Killing and wounding six elements of the army by a suicide attack on a checkpoint near Trebil," 11/24/14

NINA, "/15/ people killed and wounded by a car bomb in Dora district," 11/25/14
- “/45/ terrorists killed, 175 explosive devices dismantled near Hit,” 11/27/14
- “Baghdad Operations Announces Complete cleansing of kilos areas West Latifiya,” 11/26/14
- "Breaking News../14/ people, most of them military personnel killed and wounded in a suicide attack near Trebil outlet with Jordan," 11/24/14
- “The government complex in central Ramadi came under mortar fire,” 11/23/14
- “The IS attacks Ramadi in army uniform of 5 axes, with security and tribal reinforcements to repel the attack,” 11/23/14
- “Security forces and tribal fighters liberate villages near to Hit,” 11/25/14
- “Two villages liberated north of Muqdadiyah from the IS control,” 11/27/14
- “Violent clashes between security forces and the IS in central and northern Baiji,” 11/25/14

Radio Free Iraq, “26 November 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/26/14

Al Rayy, “15 farming villages in Qara Tapa freed northeast of Baquba from Daash control,” 11/26/14
- “Diyala police announce clearing the villages of Bani Saad, killing four Daash,” 11/28/14
- “Federal Police and the popular brigade waging a three-pronged attack on Daash nests in Lake Hamrin,” 11/26/14

Rudaw, “Peshmerga and Shiite militias vie for control of liberated town,” 11/24/14
- “UPDATE: Peshmerga recapture Kirkuk village from ISIS,” 11/26/14

Salih, Hemin, “Saadia to Remain Under Control of Iraqi Shiite Forces,” Bas News, 11/26/14

Shafaq News, "25 casualties among security elements in suicide bombing in Diyala," 11/23/14
- “Peshmerga and security forces liberate villages in Saadia sub-district and besiege ISIS in its center,” 11/23/14
- “Peshmerga launches wide operation in Qara Tapa and liberate four villages,” 11/26/14
- “Security forces and Peshmerga control Jalawla and Saadia completely,” 11/23/14

Yacoub, Sameer, "2 bombings kill 10 people in Iraq," Associated Press, 11/26/14

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