Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Islamic State Launches New Car Bomb Campaign In Iraq


The Islamic State (IS) started a new car bomb wave in July 2015. Even before the month was over the group had launched almost double the number of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) as the previous month. Although more than half of these devices were destroyed before reaching their targets, those that got through took a huge toll on the government’s forces and civilians.

In the first five months of 2015 the Islamic State was steadily picking up the number of car bombs it was using in Iraq. In December 2014 there were just 21 successful car bombs in Iraq. Then in January there were 45, followed by 52 in February, 63 in March, 67 in April, and 77 in May. In June those figures dropped again to 31 in June. IS started a new campaign the following month with 59 VBIEDs hitting their targets from July 1-27. A huge number more were destroyed. The numbers pointed to a five month long campaign starting in 2015 of increasing car bombs before stocks ran out and IS had to regroup in June before starting a new one in July. If the pattern continues Iraq will see more VBIEDs being used over the next few months.

# of Successful Car Bombs In Iraq 2015 By Month
Month
# of Successful Car Bombs
Jan
45
Feb
52
Mar
63
Apr
67
May
77
Jun
31
Jul
1-27
59
 
The scope of the Islamic State’s new campaign is best seen by comparing June to July. In the former there were 31 VBIEDs with another 68 destroyed. That went up to 59 from July 1-27 with 88 destroyed. In June there were bombings 21 out of 30 days of the month. Those were broken down into four separate waves. The first was from June 1-6, then a short one of three days from June 12-14, then a week long wave from June 22-28, and ending with another three day spread from June 30 to July 2. From July 1-27 there has already been VBIED attacks 24 out of 27 days. The majority of those came during a 21 day stretch from July 4 to 24 when there was at least one car bomb each day. In June, the main targets were Anbar and Salahaddin where the heaviest fighting was taking place in the country. Each province had 17 attacks each. Baghdad was next with 9 and then there were 2 in Diyala. In July, Anbar was struck the most with 31 as IS tried to counter the government offensive that started there in the middle of the month. After that there were 17 each in Baghdad and Salahaddin. Most of the VBIEDs in Salahaddin were in the Baiji area where there was another government campaign going on to recapture the town and refinery there. The bombings in the capital were different as they were terrorist attacks against civilians. There were also five bombings in Diyala, which has become a new emphasis of IS recently. Finally there were 4 VBIED attacks in Ninewa as the insurgents were testing the peshmerga defenses there. While during both months IS was using a large number of car bombs against the government’s forces, in July there were just as many aimed at civilians. That marked a shift from focusing mostly upon tactical attacks to a balance between those types of targets and civilian ones. 

Car Bombs In Iraq, June-July 2015
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Jun 1
Fallujah & Thar Thar x3, Anbar
Muthanna Facility, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
58
57
Jun 2
Palestine St, Baghdad
6
13
Jun 3
Husaiba & Jubba, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Ajeel, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Jun 4
Thar Thar, Anbar
Baya, Baghdad
Husaiba & Thar Thar, Anbar – 2 destroyed
5
14
Jun 5
West of Samarra, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Jun 6
Baladrooz, Diyala
Taqseem, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
14
37
Jun 7
Totals
8 & 16 Destroyed
83
121
Jun 8
Jun 9
Palestine St, Baghdad
West of Samarra, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
10
24
Jun 10
Shula, Baghdad
Baghdad – 7 destroyed
6
20
Jun 11
Jun 12
Baiji x2, Salahaddin
Jazeera, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
8
20
Jun 13
Garma x4 & Haiyakil x2, Anbar
Hijjaj x4, Salahaddin
Haditha, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Baiji & Camp Speicher, Salahaddin – 17 destroyed
42
49
Jun 14
Baghdadi x2, Anbar
Shaab, Baghdad
Baghdadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Baiji, Salahaddin – 12 destroyed
3
10
Totals
17 & 43 Destroyed
69
123
Jun 15
Jun 16
Jun 17
Kadhimiya, Baghdad
7
16
Jun 18
Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Totals
1 & 1 Destroyed
7
16
Jun 22
Nukhaib, Anbar
2
8
Jun 23
Rahaliya, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jun 24
Mandali, Diyala
Nazim, Anbar – 1 destroyed
16
22
Jun 25
Shaab, Baghdad
6
16
Jun 26
Baiji, Salahaddin
3
5
Jun 27
Karrada, Baghdad
5
13
Jun 28
Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Totals
5 & 4 Destroyed
32
64
Jun 29
Jun 30
Baiji & Tal Abu Jarad, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
Totals
4 Destroyed


JUNE
GRAND TOTAL
31 & 68 Destroyed
191
324
Jul 1
Riyahah, Salahaddin
1
Jul 2
Nukhaib, Anbar
Fatah & Tal Abu, Salahaddin
Baiji-Tikrit Road, Salahaddin– 2 destroyed
9
12
Jul 3
Jul 4
Baya x2, Baghdad
Baiji x2, Salahaddin
Khursabad & Nouran, Ninewa – 3 destroyed
20
22
Jul 5
Amil & Dora, Baghdad
Baladrooz, Diyala
Hadith Dam, Anbar – 7 destroyed
16
55
Jul 6
Jubba, Anbar
New Baghdad, Baghdad
Haditha, Outside Haditha & Saqlawiya, Anbar - 12 destroyed
Baiji, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
11
11
Jul 7
Baiji x3, Salahaddin
Sinjar, Ninewa – 3 destroyed
Tal Abu Jarad, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
10
35
Totals
16 & 32 Destroyed
66
136
Jul 8
Sakran, Anbar
Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed
1
1
Jul 9
Alwa, Baghdad
Husaiba, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Tal Abu Jarad, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
1
Jul 10
Khalidiya x7, Anbar
Amil & Zafaraniya, Baghdad
23
48
Jul 11
Abu Fleis x3, Anbar
Husaiba & Saqlawiya, Anbar – 11 destroyed
Bjara, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
8
5
Jul 12
Bunuk, Iskan, Kadhimiya, &Shaab, Baghdad
Tarmiya, Salahaddin
Sadr City, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Albu Juari & Hawi, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
43
103
Jul 13
Fallujah x5, Anbar
Jul 14
Nukhaib, Anbar
Khalis, Diyala
East of Husaiba, Saqlawiya, Shehan, Anbar – 13 destroyed
8
16
Totals
26 & 36 Destroyed
83
174
Jul 15
Baiji, Salahaddin
1
10
Jul 16
Nukhaib, Anbar
Jul 17
Khan Bani Saad, Diyala
East of Ramadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed
130
155
Jul 18
Khalidiya, Anbar
2
3
Jul 19
Hardan, Ninewa – 5 destroyed
Jul 20
Khalis, Diyala
4
18
Jul 21
New Baghdad & Zafaraniya, Baghdad
Mandali, Diyala
Tarmiya, Salahaddin
North of Fallujah, Anbar – 2 destroyed
39
83
Totals
9 & 10 Destroyed
176
259
Jun 22
Fallujah, Anbar
Baya & Shaab, Baghdad
Fallujah Anbar – 3 destroyed
East of Tikrit, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
28
58
Jun 23
Fallujah area x2, Anbar
81

Jun 24
Fallujah x2, Anbar
Husaiba, Anbar – 1 destroyed
21
24
Jul 25



Jul 26



Jul 27
Bob al-Sham, Baghdad
Jisar al-Shmal, Anbar – 3 destroyed

4
JULY
TOTALS
59 & 88 Destroyed
455
655

Analysis of Car Bombs June-July 2015
Month
# of Days With Car Bombs
Car Bomb Waves
Targets Hit - Military
Targets Hit - Civilian
June
21 out of 30
Jun 1-6 = 6 days
Jun 12-14 = 3 days
Jun 22-28 = 7 days
Jun 30-Jul 2 = 3 days
13
9
July
24 out of 27
Jul 4-24 = 21 days
21
23

Car Bombs By Province June-July 2015
Province
June
July
Anbar
17
31
Baghdad
9
17
Diyala
2
5
Ninewa

4
Salahaddin
17
17
 

2015 shows that the Islamic State’s networks are still in tact throughout central Iraq. When there were just 21 successful car bombs in December it might have been because some of its car bomb bases were rolled up by the security forces. Now it appears that December was just one of those dips after a car bomb campaign is over. Similarly, June witnessed a drop, and now a new offensive is underway in July. The result is a doubling of reported casualties with more not being officially mentioned. That toll will likely increase if IS maintains its campaign in the following months.

1 comment:

J Opperman said...

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