Thursday, November 5, 2015

Violence In Iraq Levels Off


The security situation in Iraq has slightly improved since the spring. There are fewer attacks now then the start of the year. Casualties have also gone down, but because so many of those do not get reported or are suppressed by the authorities they are not a good measure for the country anymore. The change is largely the result of the Islamic State being thrown on the defensive.

Security incidents have been going down in Iraq since the start of the year. There were 862 in January compared to 569 in October. The change is better shown with averages that went from over 20 a month for the first four months starting with 27.8 in January, 24.6 in February, 24.9 in March, and 22.1 in April, before slowly decreasing to 19.3 in May, 20.7 in June, 19.6 in July, 19.9 in August, 19.1 in September, and 18.3 in October. The cause of this decline is the fact that the Islamic State has been on the defensive since it took Ramadi in May.

Avg. Attacks Per Day 2015
Jan 27.8
Feb 24.6
Mar 24.9
Apr 22.1
May 19.3
Jun 20.7
Jul 19.6
Aug 19.9
Sep 19.1
Oct 18.3

By province there were 214 attacks in Baghdad, 117 in Salahaddin, 88 in Anbar, 43 in Diyala, 36 in Ninewa, 33 in Kirkuk, 29 in Babil, 5 in Basra, 2 in Kurdistan and 1 each in Maysan and Qadisiyah.

In October there were 1,079 deaths and 1,568 wounded. The dead were made up of 1 U.S. soldier, 6 Sahwa, 32 Peshmerga, 35 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters, 82 Hashd al-Shaabi, 98 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 825 civilians. The injured were 9 sahwa, 34 Peshmerga, 136 Hashd, 150 ISF, and 1,219 Civilians. Those figures were the lowest for the year. Unfortunately, so many casualties are either not reported, or are censored by the government that they cannot adequately capture the security situation in Iraq anymore.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
205
466
464
Jan 8-14
176
733
518
Jan 15-21
193
403
528
Jan 22-28
197
492
899
Jan 29-31
91
306
568
JAN
862
2,400
2,977
Feb 1-7
159
408
688
Feb 8-14
178
443
566
Feb 15-21
175
592
383
Feb 22-28
178
391
730
FEB
690
1,834
2,367
Mar 1-7
186
373
595
Mar 8-14
156
398
656
Mar 15-21
170
1,304
505
Mar 22-28
186
273
406
Mar 29-31
76
205
219
MAR
774
2,553 + 4
2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7
130
218
422
Apr 8-14
140
674
531
Apr 15-21
175
729
717
Apr 22-28
167
497
483
Apr 29-30
51
162 + 7
182 + 299
APR
663
2,280
2,335
May 1-7
159
627
450
May 8-14
161
420
549
May 15-21
128
963
387
May 22-28
115
341 + 1,499
348
May 29-31
38
66
164 + 646
MAY
601
2,417 + 1,499
1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7
133
431
476
Jun 8-14
126
522 + 405
394
Jun 15-21
141
365
373
Jun 22-28
162
306
474
Jun 29-30
61
122 + 58
189 + 106
JUN
623
1,804
2,012
Jul 1-7
161
435
719
Jul 8-14
140
384
570
Jul 15-21
109
359
597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28
145
527
590
Jul 29-31
53
193 + 260
203 + 400
JUL
608
2,158
3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7
154
650 + 760
298
Aug 8-14
133
756
640
Aug 15-21
135
345
354
Aug 22-28
136
342
296
Aug 29-31
59
112
169
AUG
617
2,205 + 760
1,757
Sep 1-7
139
285
352
Sep 8-14
144
368
394
Sep 15-21
123
323
488
Sep 22-28
128
190
258
Sep 29-30
39
106 + 19
147 + 8
SEP
573
1,291 + 314
1,647 + 3,003
Oct 1-7
105
291
398
Oct 8-14
144
254
389
Oct 15-21
142
208
279
Oct 22-28
129
216
366
Oct 29-31
49
110
116 + 1
OCT
569
1,079
1,549

Security by Province Oct 2015
Provinces
Oct
Anbar
88 Incidents
164 Killed: 21 ISF, 47 Hashd, 96 Civilians
95 Wounded: 23 ISF, 23 Civilians, 49 Hashd
29 Shootings
6 IEDs
3 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Car Bombs
7 Mortars
1 Artillery
1 Rockets
38 Suicide Bombers Killed
27 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
65 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil
29 Incidents
27 Killed: 10 ISF 17 Civilians
115 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 32 ISF, 80 Civilians
4 Shootings
20 IEDs
3 Car Bombs
1 Grenade
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Baghdad
214 Incidents
311 Killed: 2 Hashd, 6 Sahwa, 8 ISF, 295 Civilians
839 Wounded: 6 Hashd, 9 Sahwa, 34 ISF, 790 Civilians
49 Shootings
112 IEDs
21 Sticky Bombs
2 Suicide Bombers
2 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Car Bombs
3 Grenades
2 Rockets
1 Mortar
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Basra
5 Incidents
11 Killed: 11 Civilians
30 Wounded: 30 Civilians
1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Sound Bomb
1 Car Bomb
Diyala
43 Incidents
105 Killed: 2 ISF, 4 Hashd, 99 Civilians
166 Wounded: 1 Hashd, 165 Civilians
10 Shootings
10 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
13 Mortars
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Kirkuk
33 Incidents
51 Killed: 1 Hashd, 1 U.S. Soldier, 3 Hashd, 4 Peshmerga, 42 Civilians
18 Wounded: 3 Peshmerga, 15 Civilians
12 Shootings
7 IEDs
2 Rockets
1 Mine
KRG
2 Incidents
35 Killed: 35 PKK
2 Turkish Air Strikes
Maysan
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Shooting
Ninewa
36 Incidents
213 Killed: 18 ISF, 28 Peshmerga, 167 Civilians
31 Wounded: 31 Peshmerga
15 Shootings
11 IEDs
1 RPG
1 Grenade
3 Rockets
2 Mortars
Qadisiyah
1 Incident
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin
117 Incidents
160 Killed: 28 Hashd, 36 ISF, 96 Civilians
255 Wounded: 61 ISF, 77 Hashd, 117 Wounded
37 Shootings
28 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
2 Suicide Bombers
9 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Car Bombs
5 Mortars
1 Rockets
8 Suicide Bombers Killed
3 Suicide Motorcycle Bombers Killed
1 Boat Bomb Destroyed
18 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
39 Car Bombs Destroyed

Anbar had 164 dead and 95 wounded. The disparity between those two figures when the latter should be 3-4 times higher points to the under reporting on casualties going on in Iraq. There were many days during October when no dead or wounded were reported even though there was heavy fighting going on every day.

During the month the joint forces continued to make progress moving into northern and southern Ramadi. The Anbar Operations Command and the government center, which are near the middle of the city were within reach by the end of the month. The fighting in Fallujah, which is led by the Hashd, has seen far fewer advances. The major problem since the offensive started in July is that there is a manpower shortage so many of the towns surrounding Ramadi and Fallujah continue to switch hands. Government propaganda also fogs the situation as many towns are declared freed even though fighting never stops there.

The Islamic State’s main response to the on going Anbar operations is the use of suicide and car bombs. There were 38 suicide bombes and a whopping 97 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) launched in October. All of the suicide bombers were killed, and only 5 car bombs got through the defenses. The vast majority of VBIEDs are destroyed by anti-tank missiles, which have been flowing into the country mostly from the U.S. and its allies.

Babil had 27 dead and 115 wounded. Violence in the province remains at a very low level. There are usually only about one incident per day there. There were four car bombs there when there were none in September. It is one of the new targets of IS’s on going car bomb campaign. IS is also using Babil to launch attacks into southern Baghdad and neighboring Anbar.

As the fighting in Iraq has leveled off Baghdad has re-emerged as the main target of insurgents. The 214 incidents there in October led to 311 dead and 838 injured. While there were four successful car bombs in the capital province during the month, the real cause of most casualties were the 112 IEDs and 21 sticky bombs. There were also four suicide bombers, two of which were killed, who attempted to attack Shiite crowds celebrating Ashura.

Southern Baghdad had the most attacks with 70, followed by 53 in the east, 44 in the north, 28 in the west and 17 in the center. Much of the violence in the south is based upon the outlaying towns and Babil. IS is active in towns in the outer north and east as well along with the rural areas just outside of the city. It also funnels in car bombs, weapons and explosives from neighboring Salahaddin and Diyala. Despite IS’s strong presence in Anbar it does not appear to be focused much on western Baghdad. There are a reported 80,000 members of the security forces and more Hashd in Baghdad and its belts, but these units have not been able to break up IS’s networks leading to the capital.

Violence In Baghdad Oct 2015
Center: 17 – 1 Shooting/Robbery, 2 Kidnappings, 4 Sticky Bombs, 10 IEDs
East: 46 – 1 Shooting/Robbery, 1 Grenade, 2 Stabbings, 3 Robberies, 3 Sticky Bombs, 3 Kidnappings, 16 IEDs, 17 Shootings
Outer East: 7 – 1 Shooting, 6 IEDs
North: 31 –1 Car Bomb, 1 Car Bomb Dismantled, 1 Grenade, 1 Strangling, 1 Stabbing, 2 Suicide Bombers Killed, 2 Suicide Bombers, 2 Suicide Car Bombs, 2 Kidnappings, 4 Shootings, 6 Sticky Bombs, 10 IEDs,
Outer North: 13 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Kidnapping, 3 Shootings, 8 IEDs
South: 42 – 2 Sticky Bombs, 3 Kidnappings, 12 Shootings, 26 IEDs,
Outer South: 28 – 1 Stabbing, 1 Grenade, 1 Mortar, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Sticky Bomb, 8 Shooting, 16 IEDs
West: 22 – 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Robbery, 2 Rockets, 4 Sticky Bombs, 13 IEDs
Outer West: 6 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 5 IEDs
Unknown: 3 – 1 Shooting, 2 IEDs

IS finally smuggled in a car bomb into southern Iraq hitting Basra in October. This was the first car bomb in that region of the country in a year. That VBIED attack was responsible for all of the month’s casualties in Basra, 11 fatalities and 30 injured.

Violence in Diyala has slowly been climbing upwards in 2015. There were 105 killed and 166 wounded there in October compared to 67 dead and 86 injured in September. A main cause of casualties during the month was a constant rain of mortar fire throughout central Diyala. IS has also become more active in Abu Saida and the surrounding area, which is one of the group’s bases in the governorate. On the other hand there were only 3 car bombs in October, only one of which hit its target compared to seven in September where one was launched almost every week of that month.

Kirkuk is relatively stable. IS still has a stronghold in the Hawija district in the south where it executed 28 people during October. Otherwise there are occasional shootings and IEDs.

Turkey carried out a number of air strikes on northern Kurdistan in October. According to Ankara it killed 169 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters in four bombing runs during the month.

In Ninewa there were 319 fatalities and 50 wounded. 195 people were executed by IS mostly in Mosul. The majority of the other casualties were Peshmerga who were killed or injured in probing attacks by the IS, which occur every week.

Salahaddin was the other major battlefield in Iraq. The joint forces scored a major victory there taking back Baiji, the refinery and some of the surrounding towns like Siniya, which served as IS bases to threaten the area. There were 160 killed and 255 wounded in the province, but like Anbar, the majority of casualties are being suppressed by the authorities. Also like Anbar IS has launched a huge number of suicide and car bombs against the joint forces. There were 10 suicide bombers, 68 car bombs, 3 suicide motorcycle bombers and 1 boat bomb. Only two suicide bombers and 11 car bombs reached their targets with the rest being destroyed.

There were 178 car bombs in October. 153 were destroyed or dismantled and only 25 were successful. There were 21 straight days of VBIED attacks from October 9 to 29. The current car bomb campaign started in May and has been characterized by over 100 bombings per month.
 
Car Bombs In Iraq, October 2015
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Oct 1



Oct 2



Oct 3
Hurriya & Kadhimiya x2, Baghdad
Ramadi & Rashad, Anbar – 7 destroyed
29
74
Oct 4
Subhait, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Oct 5
Husseiniya, Baghdad
Zubayr, Basra
Khalis, Diyala
Bawih, Diyala – 1 destroyed
63
124
Oct 6



Oct 7
Ramadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Totals
6 – 12 Destroyed
92
198
Oct 8



Oct 9
Garma, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Oct 10
Tarmiya, Salahaddin
Husaiba, north of Ramadi & Thar Thar, Anbar – 15 destroyed
3
10
Oct 11
Albu Jilab, Anbar Univ, Ramadi, Anbar – 8 destroyed
Baquba, Diyala – 1 destroyed


Oct 12
Mahmudiya, Babil
Baiji x4, Salahaddin
North of Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed
3
30
Oct 13
Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 8 destroyed


Oct 14
West of Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 10 destroyed


Totals
6 – 45 Destroyed
6
40
Oct 15
Albu Aetha & Albu Faraj, Anbar – 7 destroyed
Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed


Oct 16
Baghdadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Oct 17
Baghdadi & Thar Thar, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Jbala, Babil – 1 destroyed
Sheikh Hamad, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Sukariat, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed


Oct 18
Albu Faraj, Albu Risha, Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Oct 19
Yusifiya x2, Babil
Baghdadi & Hit, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Siniya, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
2
12
Oct 20
Albu Jalib, Amiriya, East Husaiba, Anbar – 6 destroyed
Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Oct 21
Albu Gleb & Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar
Albu Gleb, Amiriya Fallujah & ?, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
6

Totals
4 - 42 Destroyed
8
12
Oct 22
Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin
Makhoul, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
3
42
Oct 23
?, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Baiji & Makhoul, Salahaddin – 6 destroyed
5
12
Oct 24
Jeraishi, Anbar
Tarmiya x2, Salahaddin
Amiriyah Fallujah Garma & Subaihat, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Sharif Abbas, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
8
25
Oct 25
Albu Aetha & Albu Aziz, Anbar
Amiriyah Fallujah, Anbar – 9 destroyed
25
34
Oct 26
Baghdadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Baiji, Salam & Siniya, Salahaddin – 11 destroyed


Oct 27
Thar Thar, Salahaddin
Anbar Univ, Baghdadi, Garma & Thar Thar, Anbar – 9 destroyed
2
10
Oct 28
Hawish, Salahaddin
Hawish & Thar Thar, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed
10
6
Totals
8 – 51 Destroyed
53
129
Oct 29
Samarra Desert, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Oct 30



Oct 31
West Samarra, Salahaddin
Abbasid Bridge, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed

3
Totals
1 – 2 Destroyed
-
3
TOTALS
25 – 153 Destroyed
159
382

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