Security In Iraq, Jan 22-28, 2016

The fall of Ramadi has led the Islamic State to carry out a series of counter attacks in Anbar province. Despite the number of security incidents slowly declining throughout January the number of casualties has remained high because of the intensity of the fighting.

There were 132 reported incidents from January 22-28. The month started with 150 the first week, then down to 140 from January 8-14, and then 135 from January 15-21. That averaged out to 19.8 attacks per day the highest amount since 20.0 seen during August 2015.

The number of dead and wounded has been higher then previous weeks as well. There were 392 reported fatalities and 322 injured from January 22-28. So far there has been an average of 67.2 deaths per day and 49.5 wounded in January. Again, those types of figures have not been seen since August when there was an average of 72.2 killed and 56.6 injured per day.

The Islamic State was still carrying out large-scale operations in Anbar to make up for its recent losses there. There were a total of 21 incidents during the week, 16 of which were assaults upon the security forces. That included a reported 65 car bombs and 7 suicide bombers. 18 suicide car bombs hit their targets in 70 Kilo, Baghdadi, Nadheim, and Tal Meshahda leaving behind 75 dead and 66 wounded members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). A mass grave was also discovered in Ramadi with forty bodies of ISF and civilians killed by the militants. In total, there were 139 deaths and 100 wounded in Anbar from January 22-28.

Almost all of Ramadi was declared cleared by the security forces, while they were still pushing eastward. On January 28, 95% of Ramadi was said to be freed. The ISF were still mopping up in Sufiya as well even though it was supposed to be liberated, and new operations were launched in Sjar, Jubba, Husaiba, and East Husaiba. These have all been fought over before, and showed the difficulties the ISF was having with the suburbs. The main issue is a lack of manpower to hold all of the areas that the joint forces go through. The police are returning to Ramadi and tribal fighters trained by the U.S. are supposed to assist them, but it’s unclear what will happen with the surrounding towns. That means IS will likely be able to maintain a presence in the area to threaten Ramadi in the future.

The government continued to fight for Garma and Fallujah. It was reported that Garma was surrounded on January 26, and Albu Shajal outside of Fallujah was attacked on the same day. The center of Garma was cordoned off in June and declared freed, but in reality the joint forces cold never penetrate into the core. In October the operation was halted, and then restarted in November, but there appears to be no real progress being made. The same happened in Fallujah, which was begun unilaterally by the Hashd and stalled as well because of a lack of manpower and no Coalition air support. That hasn’t stopped the constant announcements being made about movement south of Fallujah, but that was all propaganda.

Besides Anbar, the Islamic State’s other main focus was upon the capital province. There were 69 incidents resulting in 67 dead and 163 wounded. The number of attacks was up from the previous week’s 65. Those are both six month highs. Not all of that was due to IS however. There has been a string of robberies, eight during the week, along with four kidnappings, and ten bodies being found that were likely done by criminals, vigilantes or elements of the Hashd. As the war has dragged on there has been increasing lawlessness in Iraq’s cities. At the same time, IS is hitting Baghdad, especially in the south that saw 26 incidents including 15 IEDs. Together they are leading to a higher and higher number of incidents in the capital.

Security Incidents In Baghdad, Jan 22-28, 2016

Center: 6 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Robbery/Shooting, 2 Robberies, 2 IEDs

East: 16 – 1 Strangulation, 1 Robbery, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Kidnappings, 3 IEDs, 8 Shootings

Outer East: 2 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 IED

North: 6 – 2 Shootings, 2 Sticky Bombs, 2 IEDs

Outer North: 1 – 1 Shooting

South: 20 – 1 Robbery, 7 Shootings, 12 IEDs

Outer South: 6 – 1 Robbery, 2 Shootings, 3 IEDs

West: 9 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Robberies, 2 IEDs, 4 Shootings

Outer West: 2 – 2 IEDs

Unknown: 1 – 1 Kidnapping

Diyala returned to normal after a very violent start to the month. There were six incidents from January 22-28 that were all low level like shootings, one IED, and mortar fire on a town. That compared to the week before when there were three infantry assaults by IS, and the week before that when IS carried out two large car bombings.

Dead bodies were still showing up in Kirkuk province. From January 22-28 five were found in Kirkuk city and Whelan. The week before seven bodies were discovered in the province, one from January 8-14, eight from January 1-7, and two from December 22-31. Before this was a rare occurrence, but now these types of incidents are becoming common. It’s not clear who is behind this or even if it involves the insurgency or other elements and motivations.

Ninewa witnessed a large number of IS attacks upon the Peshmerga during the week. There were assaults on Makmour twice, Domiz twice, and one on Qayara. The insurgents recently launched a winter offensive against the Kurds, but that ended. This week’s round of IS operations appeared to be just a short burst of activity as they did not continue afterward. 

IS also continued to execute people in the province and a new mass grave was discovered. The Islamists shot eight people in Mosul, including four members of the rival Baathist Naqshibandi. 150 Yazidi bodies were discovered as well in Domiz in three separate graves. As the Peshmerga and Yazidi militias clear out more of the Sinjar district more victims of IS massacres are likely to be discovered.

The insurgents were still using Salahaddin as its secondary front after Anbar, while the attempt to clear out the rest of the province has not come to fruition. There were seven major engagements in the central and northern regions of the province during the week, all of which were turned back. On the other hand, since Baiji was recaptured in October 2015 there have been no major offensives by the joint forces in Salahaddin. The Hashd and security forces are still engaged outside of Samarra and in the Makhoul Mountains to the north of Baiji, but their efforts there have not stopped the heavy fighting in those areas.

There was a large jump in the number of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) used by the Islamic State during the week. 65 were used, all in Anbar. That compared to just 14 the week before, and 36 the second week of January. The frequency of car bombings in January has been directly related to the number of counter attacks IS has launched in response to its loss of Ramadi as almost all of them are being used in military rather than terrorist operations. The first and fourth weeks of the month saw the most of those types attacks and resulted in more VBIEDs being deployed.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015-16

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	226	540	525
Jan 8-14	187	776	514
Jan 15-21	197	438	528
Jan 22-28	207	573	898 + 150
Jan 29-31	94	329	567
JAN	911	2,656	3,032 + 150
Feb 1-7	168	572	689
Feb 8-14	183	462	572
Feb 15-21	177	697	383
Feb 22-28	202	614	722
FEB	730	2,345	2,366
Mar 1-7	196	408	595
Mar 8-14	164	419	655
Mar 15-21	178	1,312	505
Mar 22-28	201	310	406
Mar 29-31	81	212 + 4	218 + 150
MAR	820	2,665	2,529
Apr 1-7	153	276	422
Apr 8-14	165	864	525
Apr 15-21	190	880	714
Apr 22-28	187	564	479
Apr 29-30	56	169	182 + 299
APR	751	2,753	2,621
May 1-7	176	651	448
May 8-14	167	450	542
May 15-21	149	996	390
May 22-28	131	362 + 1,499	344
May 29-31	49	87	164 + 646
MAY	672	2,546 + 1,499	1,888 + 646
Jun 1-7	155	534	475
Jun 8-14	146	649 + 405	389
Jun 15-21	153	403	373
Jun 22-28	186	407	474
Jun 29-30	66	126 + 22	189 + 106
JUN	706	2,141 + 405	2,006
Jul 1-7	161	436	718
Jul 8-14	141	385	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	148	559	590
Jul 29-31	53	193 + 260	203 + 400
JUL	612	2,192	3,078 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298
Aug 8-14	133	756	640
Aug 15-21	136	348	354
Aug 22-28	138	366	296
Aug 29-31	59	112	169
AUG	620	2,239 + 760	1,757
Sep 1-7	141	293	355
Sep 8-14	146	387	394
Sep 15-21	123	323	488
Sep 22-28	128	190	258
Sep 29-30	40	110 + 19	147 + 8
SEP	578	1,303 + 314	1,650 + 3,003
Oct 1-7	120	340	398
Oct 8-14	144	254	389
Oct 15-21	142	208	285
Oct 22-28	129	216	366
Oct 29-31	49	110	116
OCT	585	1,127	1,554
Nov 1-7	125	186	316
Nov 8-14	121	265	354
Nov 15-21	140	358	420
Nov 22-28	107	289	261 + 124 + 1,322
Nov 29-30	37	52 + 24	103 + 1
NOV	530	1,174	1,455 + 124 + 1,322
Dec 1-7	118	158	249
Dec 8-14	128	246	248
Dec 15-21	140	242	326 + 5,920
Dec 22-28	127	292	346
Dec 29-31	40	203 + 14	83
DEC	553	1,155	1,252 + 5,920
Jan 1-7	150	808	421
Jan 8-14	140	408	417
Jan 15-21	135	275	227
Jan 22-28	132	392	322

Security By Province Jan 22-28, 2016

Province	Jan 8-14
Anbar	21 Incidents 139 Killed: 1 Hashd, 42 Civilians, 96 ISF 100 Wounded: 9 Hashd, 91 ISF 12 Shootings 3 IEDs 18 Suicide Car Bombs 7 Suicide Bombers Killed 33 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 14 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	8 Incidents 10 Killed: 1 Hashd, 9 Civilians 36 Wounded: 3 ISF, 33 Civilians 3 Shootings 5 IEDs
Baghdad	69 Incidents 67 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 Hashd, 3 ISF, 61 Civilians 163 Wounded: 2 Sahwa, 4 Hashd, 12 ISF, 145 Civilians 25 Shootings 27 EDs 5 Sticky Bombs
Basra	1 Incident 1 IED
Diyala	6 Incidents 5 Killed: 2 Civilians, 3 Hashd 6 Wounded: 1 ISF, 2 Hashd, 3 Civilians 4 Shootings 1 IED 1 Mortar
Kirkuk	6 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 ISF 2 Shootings
Ninewa	10 Incidents 158 Killed: 158 Civilians 6 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Mortar 6 Suicide Bombers Killed
Salahaddin	11 Incidents 8 Killed: 4 Hashd, 4 Civilians 16 Wounded: 16 Civilians 7 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Suicide Bombers Killed

Car Bombs In Iraq, January 2016

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1	North of Ramadi x4, Anbar 35 Kilo, Haditha & North of Ramadi, Anbar – 11 destroyed	60	70
Jan 2	Albu Faraj, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jan 3	Camp Speicher x2,  Salahaddin Barwana, Garma, Haditha Nazim & Ramadi, Anbar – 46 destroyed	20	17
Jan 4	Outside Haditha, Anbar Wadi Horan, Anbar - 3 destroyed Baya, Baghdad – 1 destroyed	11	30
Jan 5	Nikhaib x2 & Ramadi, Anbar Barwana, Niamiya & Ramadi, Anbar – 13 destroyed	8
Jan 6	Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Jan 7
Totals	10 – 77 destroyed	99	117
Jan 8	Barwana, Anbar – 5 destroyed
Jan 9
Jan 10
Jan 11	Nahrawan & New Baghdad x2, Baghdad Muqtadiya, Diyala	69	118
Jan 12	Khalis, Diyala Jazeera, Salahaddin – 8 destroyed	3	10
Jan 13	East of Ramadi & Jubba, Anbar – 9 destroyed Mandali, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Jan 14	East & Tal Kasiba x2, Salahaddin Ajeel, Makhoul Mountains, Tal Kasiba, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed	7	6
Totals	8 – 28 Destroyed	79	134
Jan 15	Tal Kasiba, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
Jan 16	Thar Thar, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Jan 17
Jan 18	Leine & Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
Jan 19
Jan 20	Leine & Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
Jan 21
Totals	0 – 14 Destroyed
Jan 22	Sjar, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jan 23	70 Kilo x3 & Tal Meshahda, Anbar	48	11
Jan 24	Husaiba, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jan 25
Jan 26	Sufiya, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jan 27	Baghdadi x12, Anbar Albu Hayes, Saqlawiya, Sarsar, Thar Thar – 27 Destroyed	10	9
Jan 28	Nadheim x2, Anbar Nadheim, Anbar – 17 Destroyed	17	46
Totals	18 – 47 Destroyed	75	66

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "60 ISIS members killed, 19 booby-trapped vehicles destructed north of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/28/16

- "Anti-Terrorism Bureau announces liberation of 95% of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/28/16

AIN, "Abrams destroyed car bomb," 1/22/16

Alsumaria, "Anbar operations command declared freeing of security center and a power station east of Ramadi," 1/25/16

Buratha News, "Anbar police stumble upon a mass grave in the center of Ramadi," 1/25/16

- "Thwarted a chemical attack and killed more than 40 Daash bombers in Thar Thar basin," 1/27/16

Al Forat, "Urgent… 27 Daash killed, including two suicide bombers on the outskirts of Al-Sjar," 1/22/16

Al Mada, "35 Daash members killed east of Ramadi," 1/27/16

- "Killing seven foreign Daash leaders north of Fallujah," 1/27/16

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "17 ISIS fighters killed, wounded west of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/24/16

- "Baghdadi police chief, 2 senior officers killed in suicide attacks in Baghdadi area," 1/27/16

- "ISIS executes four members of Naqshbandi Order in central Mosul," Iraqi News, 1/27/16

- "Security forces kill 6 ISIS fighters, destruct their headquarters in eastern Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/26/16

Al Masalah, "Killing and injuring 80 terrorists freeing Albu Shijil," 1/26/16

- "War media declares victories of joint forces," 1/22/16

New Sabah, "Army frees eight regions in Garma and hits the depth of Daash in Fallujah," 1/26/16

NINA, "Urgent.. Sajariah Area East Of Ramadi Stormed," 1/23/16

Rudaw, "Iraq says its forces repulsed ISIS Ramadi attack, killed 25 militants," 1/27/16

Sattar, Sardar, "New IS Attacks Kill 30 Iraqi Soldiers near Ramadi," Bas News, 1/28/16

Sotaliraq, "Discovery of three mass graves of Yazid victims in Sinjar," 1/23/16

- "Repelled a suicide car bomb attack east of Ramadi," 1/26/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi security forces repel IS attacks in Anbar," 1/27/16

- "Over 100 killed in air strikes, clashes with IS militants in Iraq," 1/23/16

- "Security forces repel fresh wave of IS onslaught in Iraq's Anbar," 1/28/16