Monday, February 1, 2016

Security In Iraq, Jan 22-28, 2016


The fall of Ramadi has led the Islamic State to carry out a series of counter attacks in Anbar province. Despite the number of security incidents slowly declining throughout January the number of casualties has remained high because of the intensity of the fighting.

There were 132 reported incidents from January 22-28. The month started with 150 the first week, then down to 140 from January 8-14, and then 135 from January 15-21. That averaged out to 19.8 attacks per day the highest amount since 20.0 seen during August 2015.

The number of dead and wounded has been higher then previous weeks as well. There were 392 reported fatalities and 322 injured from January 22-28. So far there has been an average of 67.2 deaths per day and 49.5 wounded in January. Again, those types of figures have not been seen since August when there was an average of 72.2 killed and 56.6 injured per day.

The Islamic State was still carrying out large-scale operations in Anbar to make up for its recent losses there. There were a total of 21 incidents during the week, 16 of which were assaults upon the security forces. That included a reported 65 car bombs and 7 suicide bombers. 18 suicide car bombs hit their targets in 70 Kilo, Baghdadi, Nadheim, and Tal Meshahda leaving behind 75 dead and 66 wounded members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). A mass grave was also discovered in Ramadi with forty bodies of ISF and civilians killed by the militants. In total, there were 139 deaths and 100 wounded in Anbar from January 22-28.

Almost all of Ramadi was declared cleared by the security forces, while they were still pushing eastward. On January 28, 95% of Ramadi was said to be freed. The ISF were still mopping up in Sufiya as well even though it was supposed to be liberated, and new operations were launched in Sjar, Jubba, Husaiba, and East Husaiba. These have all been fought over before, and showed the difficulties the ISF was having with the suburbs. The main issue is a lack of manpower to hold all of the areas that the joint forces go through. The police are returning to Ramadi and tribal fighters trained by the U.S. are supposed to assist them, but it’s unclear what will happen with the surrounding towns. That means IS will likely be able to maintain a presence in the area to threaten Ramadi in the future.

The government continued to fight for Garma and Fallujah. It was reported that Garma was surrounded on January 26, and Albu Shajal outside of Fallujah was attacked on the same day. The center of Garma was cordoned off in June and declared freed, but in reality the joint forces cold never penetrate into the core. In October the operation was halted, and then restarted in November, but there appears to be no real progress being made. The same happened in Fallujah, which was begun unilaterally by the Hashd and stalled as well because of a lack of manpower and no Coalition air support. That hasn’t stopped the constant announcements being made about movement south of Fallujah, but that was all propaganda.

Besides Anbar, the Islamic State’s other main focus was upon the capital province. There were 69 incidents resulting in 67 dead and 163 wounded. The number of attacks was up from the previous week’s 65. Those are both six month highs. Not all of that was due to IS however. There has been a string of robberies, eight during the week, along with four kidnappings, and ten bodies being found that were likely done by criminals, vigilantes or elements of the Hashd. As the war has dragged on there has been increasing lawlessness in Iraq’s cities. At the same time, IS is hitting Baghdad, especially in the south that saw 26 incidents including 15 IEDs. Together they are leading to a higher and higher number of incidents in the capital.

Security Incidents In Baghdad, Jan 22-28, 2016
Center: 6 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Robbery/Shooting, 2 Robberies, 2 IEDs
East: 16 – 1 Strangulation, 1 Robbery, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Kidnappings, 3 IEDs, 8 Shootings
Outer East: 2 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 IED
North: 6 – 2 Shootings, 2 Sticky Bombs, 2 IEDs
Outer North: 1 – 1 Shooting
South: 20 – 1 Robbery, 7 Shootings, 12 IEDs
Outer South: 6 – 1 Robbery, 2 Shootings, 3 IEDs
West: 9 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Robberies, 2 IEDs, 4 Shootings
Outer West: 2 – 2 IEDs
Unknown: 1 – 1 Kidnapping

Diyala returned to normal after a very violent start to the month. There were six incidents from January 22-28 that were all low level like shootings, one IED, and mortar fire on a town. That compared to the week before when there were three infantry assaults by IS, and the week before that when IS carried out two large car bombings.

Dead bodies were still showing up in Kirkuk province. From January 22-28 five were found in Kirkuk city and Whelan. The week before seven bodies were discovered in the province, one from January 8-14, eight from January 1-7, and two from December 22-31. Before this was a rare occurrence, but now these types of incidents are becoming common. It’s not clear who is behind this or even if it involves the insurgency or other elements and motivations.

Ninewa witnessed a large number of IS attacks upon the Peshmerga during the week. There were assaults on Makmour twice, Domiz twice, and one on Qayara. The insurgents recently launched a winter offensive against the Kurds, but that ended. This week’s round of IS operations appeared to be just a short burst of activity as they did not continue afterward. 

IS also continued to execute people in the province and a new mass grave was discovered. The Islamists shot eight people in Mosul, including four members of the rival Baathist Naqshibandi. 150 Yazidi bodies were discovered as well in Domiz in three separate graves. As the Peshmerga and Yazidi militias clear out more of the Sinjar district more victims of IS massacres are likely to be discovered.

The insurgents were still using Salahaddin as its secondary front after Anbar, while the attempt to clear out the rest of the province has not come to fruition. There were seven major engagements in the central and northern regions of the province during the week, all of which were turned back. On the other hand, since Baiji was recaptured in October 2015 there have been no major offensives by the joint forces in Salahaddin. The Hashd and security forces are still engaged outside of Samarra and in the Makhoul Mountains to the north of Baiji, but their efforts there have not stopped the heavy fighting in those areas.

There was a large jump in the number of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) used by the Islamic State during the week. 65 were used, all in Anbar. That compared to just 14 the week before, and 36 the second week of January. The frequency of car bombings in January has been directly related to the number of counter attacks IS has launched in response to its loss of Ramadi as almost all of them are being used in military rather than terrorist operations. The first and fourth weeks of the month saw the most of those types attacks and resulted in more VBIEDs being deployed.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015-16
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
226
540
525
Jan 8-14
187
776
514
Jan 15-21
197
438
528
Jan 22-28
207
573
898 + 150
Jan 29-31
94
329
567
JAN
911
2,656
3,032 + 150
Feb 1-7
168
572
689
Feb 8-14
183
462
572
Feb 15-21
177
697
383
Feb 22-28
202
614
722
FEB
730
2,345
2,366
Mar 1-7
196
408
595
Mar 8-14
164
419
655
Mar 15-21
178
1,312
505
Mar 22-28
201
310
406
Mar 29-31
81
212 + 4
218 + 150
MAR
820
2,665
2,529
Apr 1-7
153
276
422
Apr 8-14
165
864
525
Apr 15-21
190
880
714
Apr 22-28
187
564
479
Apr 29-30
56
169
182 + 299
APR
751
2,753
2,621
May 1-7
176
651
448
May 8-14
167
450
542
May 15-21
149
996
390
May 22-28
131
362 + 1,499
344
May 29-31
49
87
164 + 646
MAY
672
2,546 + 1,499
1,888 + 646
Jun 1-7
155
534
475
Jun 8-14
146
649 + 405
389
Jun 15-21
153
403
373
Jun 22-28
186
407
474
Jun 29-30
66
126 + 22
189 + 106
JUN
706
2,141 + 405
2,006
Jul 1-7
161
436
718
Jul 8-14
141
385
570
Jul 15-21
109
359
597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28
148
559
590
Jul 29-31
53
193 + 260
203 + 400
JUL
612
2,192
3,078 + 4,024
Aug 1-7
154
650 + 760
298
Aug 8-14
133
756
640
Aug 15-21
136
348
354
Aug 22-28
138
366
296
Aug 29-31
59
112
169
AUG
620
2,239 + 760
1,757
Sep 1-7
141
293
355
Sep 8-14
146
387
394
Sep 15-21
123
323
488
Sep 22-28
128
190
258
Sep 29-30
40
110 + 19
147 + 8
SEP
578
1,303 + 314
1,650 + 3,003
Oct 1-7
120
340
398
Oct 8-14
144
254
389
Oct 15-21
142
208
285
Oct 22-28
129
216
366
Oct 29-31
49
110
116
OCT
585
1,127
1,554
Nov 1-7
125
186
316
Nov 8-14
121
265
354
Nov 15-21
140
358
420
Nov 22-28
107
289
261 + 124 + 1,322
Nov 29-30
37
52 + 24
103 + 1
NOV
530
1,174
1,455 + 124 + 1,322
Dec 1-7
118
158
249
Dec 8-14
128
246
248
Dec 15-21
140
242
326 + 5,920
Dec 22-28
127
292
346
Dec 29-31
40
203 + 14
83
DEC
553
1,155
1,252 + 5,920
Jan 1-7
150
808
421
Jan 8-14
140
408
417
Jan 15-21
135
275
227
Jan 22-28
132
392
322

Security By Province Jan 22-28, 2016
Province
Jan 8-14
Anbar
21 Incidents
139 Killed: 1 Hashd, 42 Civilians, 96 ISF
100 Wounded: 9 Hashd, 91 ISF
12 Shootings
3 IEDs
18 Suicide Car Bombs
7 Suicide Bombers Killed
33 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
14 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil
8 Incidents
10 Killed: 1 Hashd, 9 Civilians
36 Wounded: 3 ISF, 33 Civilians
3 Shootings
5 IEDs
Baghdad
69 Incidents
67 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 Hashd, 3 ISF, 61 Civilians
163 Wounded: 2 Sahwa, 4 Hashd, 12 ISF, 145 Civilians
25 Shootings
27 EDs
5 Sticky Bombs
Basra
1 Incident
1 IED
Diyala
6 Incidents
5 Killed: 2 Civilians, 3 Hashd
6 Wounded: 1 ISF, 2 Hashd, 3 Civilians
4 Shootings
1 IED
1 Mortar
Kirkuk
6 Incidents
5 Killed: 5 Civilians
1 Wounded: 1 ISF
2 Shootings
Ninewa
10 Incidents
158 Killed: 158 Civilians
6 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Mortar
6 Suicide Bombers Killed
Salahaddin
11 Incidents
8 Killed: 4 Hashd, 4 Civilians
16 Wounded: 16 Civilians
7 Shootings
2 IEDs
1 Suicide Bombers Killed

Car Bombs In Iraq, January 2016
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1
North of Ramadi x4, Anbar
35 Kilo, Haditha & North of Ramadi, Anbar – 11 destroyed
60
70
Jan 2
Albu Faraj, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Jan 3
Camp Speicher x2,  Salahaddin
Barwana, Garma, Haditha Nazim & Ramadi, Anbar – 46 destroyed
20
17
Jan 4
Outside Haditha, Anbar
Wadi Horan, Anbar - 3 destroyed
Baya, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
11
30
Jan 5
Nikhaib x2 & Ramadi, Anbar
Barwana, Niamiya & Ramadi, Anbar – 13 destroyed
8

Jan 6
Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Jan 7



Totals
10 – 77 destroyed
99
117
Jan 8
Barwana, Anbar – 5 destroyed


Jan 9



Jan 10



Jan 11
Nahrawan & New Baghdad x2, Baghdad
Muqtadiya, Diyala
69
118
Jan 12
Khalis, Diyala
Jazeera, Salahaddin – 8 destroyed
3
10
Jan 13
East of Ramadi & Jubba, Anbar – 9 destroyed
Mandali, Diyala – 1 destroyed


Jan 14
East & Tal Kasiba x2, Salahaddin
Ajeel, Makhoul Mountains, Tal Kasiba, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed
7
6
Totals
8 – 28 Destroyed
79
134
Jan 15
Tal Kasiba, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed


Jan 16
Thar Thar, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Jan 17



Jan 18
Leine & Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed


Jan 19



Jan 20
Leine & Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed


Jan 21



Totals
0 – 14 Destroyed


Jan 22
Sjar, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Jan 23
70 Kilo x3 & Tal Meshahda, Anbar
48
11
Jan 24
Husaiba, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Jan 25



Jan 26
Sufiya, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Jan 27
Baghdadi x12, Anbar
Albu Hayes, Saqlawiya, Sarsar, Thar Thar – 27 Destroyed
10
9
Jan 28
Nadheim x2, Anbar
Nadheim, Anbar – 17 Destroyed
17
46
Totals
18 – 47 Destroyed
75
66


SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "60 ISIS members killed, 19 booby-trapped vehicles destructed north of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/28/16
- "Anti-Terrorism Bureau announces liberation of 95% of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/28/16

AIN, "Abrams destroyed car bomb," 1/22/16

Alsumaria, "Anbar operations command declared freeing of security center and a power station east of Ramadi," 1/25/16

Buratha News, "Anbar police stumble upon a mass grave in the center of Ramadi," 1/25/16
- "Thwarted a chemical attack and killed more than 40 Daash bombers in Thar Thar basin," 1/27/16

Al Forat, "Urgent… 27 Daash killed, including two suicide bombers on the outskirts of Al-Sjar," 1/22/16

Al Mada, "35 Daash members killed east of Ramadi," 1/27/16
- "Killing seven foreign Daash leaders north of Fallujah," 1/27/16

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "17 ISIS fighters killed, wounded west of Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/24/16
- "Baghdadi police chief, 2 senior officers killed in suicide attacks in Baghdadi area," 1/27/16
- "ISIS executes four members of Naqshbandi Order in central Mosul," Iraqi News, 1/27/16
- "Security forces kill 6 ISIS fighters, destruct their headquarters in eastern Ramadi," Iraqi News, 1/26/16

Al Masalah, "Killing and injuring 80 terrorists freeing Albu Shijil," 1/26/16
- "War media declares victories of joint forces," 1/22/16

New Sabah, "Army frees eight regions in Garma and hits the depth of Daash in Fallujah," 1/26/16

NINA, "Urgent.. Sajariah Area East Of Ramadi Stormed," 1/23/16

Rudaw, "Iraq says its forces repulsed ISIS Ramadi attack, killed 25 militants," 1/27/16

Sattar, Sardar, "New IS Attacks Kill 30 Iraqi Soldiers near Ramadi," Bas News, 1/28/16

Sotaliraq, "Discovery of three mass graves of Yazid victims in Sinjar," 1/23/16
- "Repelled a suicide car bomb attack east of Ramadi," 1/26/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi security forces repel IS attacks in Anbar," 1/27/16
- "Over 100 killed in air strikes, clashes with IS militants in Iraq," 1/23/16
- "Security forces repel fresh wave of IS onslaught in Iraq's Anbar," 1/28/16

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